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Treasury Secretary Yellen said this Sunday morning there would be no bailout for SVIB, but they are concerned about the bank's depositors and will try to meet their needs. Not sure what the details are for Yellen's plans.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 17:13 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 04:21 |
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nnnotime posted:This banker Chris Whalen thinks the Fed is also to blame for SVIB's collapse. He doesn't appear to be fan of the Federal Reserve's policies or Powell. He's an old-head who was required reading during the GFC. That was a better time, back when everybody had a blog instead of a substack for $300/year. I'm not all the way through the video but this is bullshit because it's not like they can't hedge interest rate risk. SVIB didn't, which is exactly what you'd do if you just assumed if anything went tits up you'd get bailed out. nnnotime posted:Treasury Secretary Yellen said this Sunday morning there would be no bailout for SVIB, but they are concerned about the bank's depositors and will try to meet their needs. Not sure what the details are for Yellen's plans. I mean the sensible thing would be to give the uninsured depositors a bridge loan to cover payroll until dividends are paid out if they can't find a buyer but everybody's been conditioned over 15 years that step 1 is some sort of massive intervention to make sure no one ever has to take a loss on assets.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 17:33 |
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shame on an IGA posted:0.03-0.42% of total deposits, every year drat.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 17:33 |
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nnnotime posted:This banker Chris Whalen thinks the Fed is also to blame for SVIB's collapse. He doesn't appear to be fan of the Federal Reserve's policies or Powell. The Fed did exactly what it said it was going to do over the past year or so. This poo poo is dumb and gently caress that guy. Its just another reminder that so many of the public facing figures involved in finance have a vested interest in manipulating public opinion in a manner that is often not in our best interest and most certainly has no interest in the truth.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 17:52 |
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from another forum (not SA/twitter/reddit), 10-yr SVB employee taking questions:quote:Did the employees see risk and or implosion happening months before? When the Fed started raising interest rates and openly said they were going to keep doing so?
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 21:47 |
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Nobody could have predicted that the zero percent interest rates might at some point increase, causing long-duration bonds purchased at zero rates to decrease in value.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 21:58 |
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SBNY closed by the feds additional fed measures underway to protect deposits at all banks
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 23:24 |
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pmchem posted:SBNY closed by the feds https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm quote:Washington, DC -- The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg: Futures are loving this but it's really not a bailout, it's spreading the losses in the banking system across the banking system and the banking system has a lot of unrealized losses.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 23:39 |
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https://twitter.com/stevehouf/status/1635048569379127296 this is designed to solve all the balance sheet duration risk issues across the industry
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 23:49 |
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/stevehouf/status/1635048569379127296 hell yeah a TARP sequel.
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# ? Mar 12, 2023 23:55 |
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We are looking for the guys that did this.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 00:45 |
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pmchem posted:from another forum (not SA/twitter/reddit), 10-yr SVB employee taking questions: Is this actually someone that had inside info on what's going on or just some worker drones perspective? Because the whole "VCs caused this by inspiring a bank run" narrative doesn't hold water very well. People were calling SVB out on Twitter as early as January. Sounds like those VCs sidn't cause the collapse, they were just the first to realize how bad things were and got the gently caress out.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 01:08 |
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oh no, the tech dipshits are losing money, we must save them! but where will that money come from? lol, lmao
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 01:17 |
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Do not fret, for the NY Times is already hard at work selling Tech TARP to the American people.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 01:59 |
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:Is this actually someone that had inside info on what's going on or just some worker drones perspective? Because the whole "VCs caused this by inspiring a bank run" narrative doesn't hold water very well. People were calling SVB out on Twitter as early as January. Sounds like those VCs sidn't cause the collapse, they were just the first to realize how bad things were and got the gently caress out. dunno his exact job title. not C-level, but not customer service either. just shared it as a legit take from a long-time employee LostCosmonaut posted:oh no, the tech dipshits are losing money, we must save them! well, it's not coming from taxpayers
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 02:00 |
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mrmcd posted:
Here's the loving thing that was going to save the world, probably.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 02:03 |
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Here's the loving thing that was going to save the world, probably. Lol it's an app connected subscription garbage can
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 02:05 |
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mrmcd posted:
Is this written by the guy that flipped the gently caress out when ChatGP told him it loved him, because apparently he though it was actually sentient rather than the worlds most sophisticated ELIZA bot? Because boy howdy is that guy something special. Hes their chief tech reporter too.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 02:13 |
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Here's the loving thing that was going to save the world, probably. A countertop composter would be pretty dope if it wasn't a Composter as a Service business model with proprietary cartridges that only they can sell you until the business goes under.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 08:36 |
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Sounds like a complicated and expensive version of Bokashi
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 08:53 |
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It also doesn’t really compost, you could do the same thing by running your garbage through a food processor then sticking it the oven for 5 hours. The subscription pods are to add back some of the bacteria it’s cooking out. It’s extremely Silicon Valley home environmentalism. JPM is extending credit lines to First Republic and it’s still down big pre-market. This is potentially a good BTD.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 10:49 |
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:Is this written by the guy that flipped the gently caress out when ChatGP told him it loved him, because apparently he though it was actually sentient rather than the worlds most sophisticated ELIZA bot? Because boy howdy is that guy something special. Hes their chief tech reporter too. Remember that google engineer a few months ago who decided their bot was as sapient too? Like they’ve never heard of a Chinese room. Or maybe just no one has ever loved them.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 15:06 |
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Picked up a small position in SCHW. Pulled their call reports, and at the end of last quarter between 25% and 35% of their deposits were covered by available for sale (marked to market) securities in all of their banks. Plus they have a much broader customer base, generally bigger balance sheets, (I'm guessing) lots of flexibility in where withdrawals come from with their multibank sweeping model. Seems the panic selling of all banks makes it a good bargain, even if earnings do take a hit for a quarter. The discount is already so deep compared to a week ago a rough quarter or two might as well be priced in. I'm also a huge idiot though so feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 16:08 |
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mrmcd posted:Picked up a small position in SCHW. Pulled their call reports, and at the end of last quarter between 25% and 35% of their deposits were covered by available for sale (marked to market) securities in all of their banks. Plus they have a much broader customer base, generally bigger balance sheets, (I'm guessing) lots of flexibility in where withdrawals come from with their multibank sweeping model. Seems the panic selling of all banks makes it a good bargain, even if earnings do take a hit for a quarter. The discount is already so deep compared to a week ago a rough quarter or two might as well be priced in. I thought the same thing, but another dumb panic could just as easily trigger another run, and then You could lower your cost basis some more? (Edit: Ah, gently caress it, I bought in a little) Red fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Mar 13, 2023 |
# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:24 |
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I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity?
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:33 |
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Bremen posted:I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity? Yes, definitely. You will see deposit interest rates almost everywhere creep up too. What are the terms on that CD? Can you redeem early without penalty? That rate seems really incredible but I haven’t been CD shopping.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:42 |
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Bremen posted:I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity? Given that rates have fallen across the board over the past few days, 5.4% on a CD looks like a very good deal. edit: for reference, a 2 year treasury was yielding over 5% last Thursday, but is at about 4.1% today.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:44 |
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I'm getting an absurd amount of correspondence from First Republic Bank, including having a 'Senior Relationship Manager' assigned to me in order to handle and questions or transactions Weird stuff
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:46 |
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pmchem posted:Yes, definitely. You will see deposit interest rates almost everywhere creep up too. Uh, I'm embarrassed to say I don't really know how the details work. It's non-callable and matures on 9/23/24, which is really all I looked at. CUSIP is 15987UAV0 if someone more savvy wants to look.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:46 |
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so, is first republic a buy?
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:46 |
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Head Bee Guy posted:so, is first republic a buy? Has the messaging made anyone feel more comfortable about their bank not going under? I guess it was supposed to make you feel better about your deposits, but everyone hates the thought of maybe having their money in the one bank that is gonna be the exception.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:50 |
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Head Bee Guy posted:so, is first republic a buy? I wouldn't touch poo poo related to any floundering bank right now, good buy or not, because bank runs and financial panic are not rational. However, I am not a degenerate gambler and also don't do short-term trading anyway so YMMV.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:53 |
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Bremen posted:I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity? Absolutely and the moral hazard introduced by yesterday’s Fed/FDIC/Treasury actions is that you should definitely chase deposit yield because the government is going to cover it. If this isn’t over and there are real bank runs keep your eye out on deals for brokered CDs.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 17:53 |
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Absolutely and the moral hazard introduced by yesterday’s Fed/FDIC/Treasury actions is that you should definitely chase deposit yield because the government is going to cover it. The chances of me buying a CD worth over 250k are... well, let's say very low, so I didn't hesitate to jump on it. That's the nice thing about not investing millions at a time, I don't have to worry about the bank runs even without the new optics!
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 18:03 |
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MeetKevin eating good with 6 videos in the last 24 hours alone
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 18:13 |
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Toxic Mental posted:MeetKevin eating good with 6 videos in the last 24 hours alone I take all my financial planning and advice from a guy with a face that looked like he thought he had a $20 in his wallet but doesn't know where it went.
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 19:09 |
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thinkin' about investing in IBKR tomorrow, anyone care to make an argument against them? long thesis: high ROI, low PEG trailing metrics. has perfectly managed duration risk by using t-bills as assets, and been vocal about it in earnings calls, avoiding the trap other financials find themselves in right now. would potentially benefit from any client moves away from scwhab. advertises on bloomberg radio all the time for RIA/institutional clients and it seems to be paying off, with YoY revenues all up despite the opposite happening for retail brokerages like HOOD. it just seems to be a well-managed business that is caught in the wash during this SVB crisis? some daytrader goons have used ibkr. bear thesis: while it had a recent a recent all time high, it was at 52 in the middle of last year and share count has went up, not down, since then. Chairman continues to sell his massive pile of shares. Recent high margins may not be sustainable. Low dividend, share count not decreasing, basically makes this a bet on a stock market tradin' growth stock going into a recession. some daytrader goons have moved away from ibkr. someone roast this company
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 19:15 |
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Bremen posted:I just got offered 5.4% on an 18 month CD from Schwab, which seems like quite a jump over similar offerings. I'm not really super financially savvy, but could that be related? Banks suddenly worried about liquidity? I threw a chunk into this, thanks! (you don't need a special invite, its available today as a brokered CD)
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 19:31 |
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Here's a really good article about exactly why SVB's balance sheet was turbofucked: https://www.investing.com/analysis/disastrous-risk-management-is-not-the-feds-fault-200636146 The gist of it is that SVB did not hedge its enormous bond portfolio. At all. quote:The problems? SVB had a gigantic investment portfolio as a % of total assets at 57% (average US bank: 24%) and 78% was in Mortgage-Backed Securities (Citi or JPM: around 30%)…
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 19:36 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 04:21 |
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That is crazy that as the Fed continuously hiked rates in 2022 SVB actually increased their portfolio duration and eliminated the (minimal) duration hedging they had. Really, really hard to understand
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# ? Mar 13, 2023 19:45 |