(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Ups_rail posted:how is it possible for a pipe to go explody and no one no where has any idea how it happened? The tree that fell in the forest that nobody saw might have a few ideas. 
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Mar 19, 2023 16:56
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Ups_rail posted:how is it possible for a pipe to go explody and no one no where has any idea how it happened? There is a big difference between "we will never know" and "no one no where has any idea how it happened". The latter is not true. The speed of which the Swedes went from "we demand full transparent public joint international investigation into the causes now!!!" to shutting their own public investigation down and clamming the hell up, should tell you something.
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Mar 19, 2023 17:04
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Ups_rail posted:how is it possible for a pipe to go explody and no one no where has any idea how it happened? We as in the general public
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Mar 19, 2023 17:28
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I would suspect that if not done by the USA it was certainly backed by them and tacitly ignored CIA style. Seems like Ukraine was ultimately behind it in that regard, but maybe had some gear that "fell off the back of a truck". The USA probably can't act on it directly since its a national security issue for the countries who do get gas from russia, but for ukraine its a legitimate target... Which incidentally is also in the USAs interest to blow up.
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Mar 19, 2023 17:32
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The US probably had the most to lose from blowing it up aside from Ukraine. If discovered it would jeopardize NATO cooperation and public opinion on the war. NS2 was already canned at that point and Russia had already unilaterally cut off the gas running through it, so it's not like whoever did it was materially impacting the status quo.
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Mar 19, 2023 17:57
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Warbadger posted:The US probably had the most to lose from blowing it up aside from Ukraine. If discovered it would jeopardize NATO cooperation and public opinion on the war. Yes on the first part and thats why officially the usa wouldnt do it. However from a specifically usa point of view it makes excellent sense to allow it to happen or look the other way, or even "ah oh, whoops, looks like i just dropped my monster pipe bomb which I use for blowing up magnum pipes" to ukrainian sabeuteurs: 1. Limits russian access to hard funds, weakening both their economy and the war effort 2. Limits russian soft power ("cut the gas off because you did something we didnt like") in europe. The so called "gas diplomacy". 3. Pushing europe away from russian gas results in them turning to imports of lng from other suppliers... such as the USA or its allies. 4. In the long run prevents German (et al) appeasement of Russia to turn the gas back on, since they now physically can't.
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Mar 19, 2023 18:20
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Drone_Fragger posted:Yes on the first part and thats why officially the usa wouldnt do it. However from a specifically usa point of view it makes excellent sense to allow it to happen or look the other way, or even "ah oh, whoops, looks like i just dropped my monster pipe bomb which I use for blowing up magnum pipes" to ukrainian sabeuteurs: Russia had already done all of these things by fully cutting off the gas running through the NS1 pipes - and NS2 wasn't yet complete, had been officially cancelled, and gone bankrupt so any impact of that loss would only be felt a bit further into the future. They were very much already playing the "if Russia shuts down the gas, Europe shuts down and freezes during the winter" card, and exploding the pipes just made it harder for either party to backtrack. Edit: And supplying a bomb would be just as politically dangerous as doing the deed yourself. Even "we knew about it and chose not to tell you, our closest allies with whom we have intel sharing agreements" would be a political timebomb. If you're looking for state level suspects, the Poles openly objected to opening NS2 and (correctly) predicted the pipelines would just be used as blackmail over Ukraine. Out of the NATO members with the means to do it they probably also have the least to lose (which is still a lot) - but yeah I doubt they would take a chance like that just to *maybe* prevent the gas from flowing again *if* other European members capitulated and Russia decided to start pumping gas again. Russia was already making a show of cutting the gas & making Europe suffer, didn't give a poo poo about the political fallout, were desperately throwing poo poo at the wall to see if anything would stick w/r/t putting a wedge in support to Ukraine (who they immediately blamed for it), and haven't exactly been making beep-boop logically sound decisions from the point of view of outsiders so they still seem like the most likely to me. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Mar 19, 2023 |
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Mar 19, 2023 18:27
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It's really fascinating, I think there are good reasons for any of the actors to have done it, but also some risks in being caught. Still going with russia for now because they started the whole thing and are responsible by default. I'm glad it's gone anyway.
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Mar 19, 2023 18:31
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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1637466010365173760 How dare they do this? Do they think retribution isn't going to come their way? I know their actions can be petty and nasty as gently caress, but gently caress me.
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Mar 19, 2023 18:33
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Seems slightly more likely that the russian government paid a company in advance to steal the grain to russia, but realised half way through the job they could just dump it and pocket the money because theyd never get caught.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:13
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Ups_rail posted:how is it possible for a pipe to go explody and no one no where has any idea how it happened? They mean we plebs will never know. It's almost certain that intelligence agencies know exactly who, what, when, where, why, and how and it's more advantageous to western interests to not disclose it. About the only country I'm sure DIDN'T do it is Russia ironically.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:18
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1637466010365173760 Its a considerable advancement that their tanks too can now release chaff to escape from missiles.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:26
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Couldn't it just spill out from a truck? I know the they're monsters but surely it's better to sell the stolen grain for vodka than dump it.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:33
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HonorableTB posted:They mean we plebs will never know. It's almost certain that intelligence agencies know exactly who, what, when, where, why, and how and it's more advantageous to western interests to not disclose it. About the only country I'm sure DIDN'T do it is Russia ironically. My own  guess is that it wasn't any state actor, but some other big petrochemical company doing a shadowrun; IIRC a lot of oil went through Nordstream, and cutting off Russian oil might have meant big bucks for some other corporate entity, or at least it would have until Europe decided to go (somewhat) green.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:37
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mobby_6kl posted:Couldn't it just spill out from a truck? I know the they're monsters but surely it's better to sell the stolen grain for vodka than dump it. I mean unless anyone has any actual evidence to the contrary, yeah, probably. Also while I'm kinda on the point unless someone actually has the numbers to compare it to, there's little reason to believe that the vast majority of fires being tweeted about in Russia aren't just like, the normal amount that are suddenly being reported way more on Twitter as acts of sabotage or whatever because people are hyperaware/paranoid and keeping and eye out for that kinda stuff way more. Some might be sabotage though. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Mar 19, 2023 |
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Mar 19, 2023 19:44
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Telsa Cola posted:I mean unless anyone has any actual evidence to the contrary, yeah, probably. I'm more inclined to believe that it's more than usual, but less likely to be sabotage than it is that spare parts aren't available to keep critical systems maintained/less manpower available to maintain them/less money available to maintain them. You can only defer maintenance for so long before poo poo starts breaking, and in manufacturing, poo poo tends to break in a rather spectacular manor.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:56
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Doccers posted:I'm more inclined to believe that it's more than usual, but less likely to be sabotage than it is that spare parts aren't available to keep critical systems maintained/less manpower available to maintain them/less money available to maintain them. You can only defer maintenance for so long before poo poo starts breaking, and in manufacturing, poo poo tends to break in a rather spectacular manor.
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Mar 19, 2023 20:09
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20 tons of wheat really isn't all that much. That's more likely accidental or just wasteful because it's stolen.
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Mar 19, 2023 20:26
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1637538033921851392?t=x1AUHLcy3pDma5ZdMik85g&s=19 Defmon update is a long one today
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Mar 19, 2023 20:44
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CommissarMega posted:My own Such a cringe act can only have been carried out by NAFO.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:22
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CommissarMega posted:My own You mean gas , right? Nordstream was for natural gas.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:26
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Karate Bastard posted:Such a cringe act can only have been carried out by NAFO. a lonely shiba inu with scuba diving gear
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Mar 19, 2023 21:30
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Leftist elements of BP oil blew up the pipelines In other news the offensive has truly started to stall out, with the new 400,000 conscript recruitment drive in the works I could see an administrative/tactical pause occurring while those troops start filling in the gaps. Def mon States he's not sure about they're not being reserved behind the line I would doubt that as well but I'm sure those reserves are really not going to do that well. Especially if they haven't been trained much, they may end up shooting guys who are retreating.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:53
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1637466010365173760 20T is a single flatbed trailer. It could have just been a crash. Probably russian dashcam style.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:58
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BrassRoots posted:20T is a single flatbed trailer. It could have just been a crash. Probably russian dashcam style. Yeah, if it was found at like a dump site or in a river or something? That's definitely them destroying grain supplies. Spilled out on the road like that? Someone didn't secure their load, and that's probably all that happened.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:00
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Let's launch localized assaults along the entire front line, to pinpoint weaknesses in the enemy defenses. Right. The weaknesses are here, here, here, here, and here. We got our arse kicked. Good job. Again.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:39
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Karate Bastard posted:There is a big difference between "we will never know" and "no one no where has any idea how it happened". The latter is not true. The speed of which the Swedes went from "we demand full transparent public joint international investigation into the causes now!!!" to shutting their own public investigation down and clamming the hell up, should tell you something. Just a couple of weeks ago US media and several European governments publicly talked about the current state of the investigations. The current focus is a ship rented by private individuals with circumstantial links to Ukraine. German federal police searched it just recently on behest of the federal prosecutor office and found traces of explosives. You can of course distrust the officially released information about the investigation, but European governments are not ignoring the incident. The investigation is very much ongoing.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:54
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gently caress SNEEP posted:It was me I knew it!
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Mar 19, 2023 23:11
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At the time I interpreted it to the effect that they either found or were told something that was not in their interest to relay. In either case it sounded to me like babby got told the rules of the big boy nato game. Or whatever game, I guess. I don't know how to feel about this.
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Mar 19, 2023 23:11
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Watching Perun, getting emotional. Vaas: Did I ever tell you what the definition of insanity is? Insanity is doing the exact... same loving thing... over and over again expecting... poo poo to change... That. Is. Crazy. The first time somebody told me that, I dunno, I thought they were bullshitting me, so, I shot him. The thing is... He was right. And then I started seeing, everywhere I looked, everywhere I looked all these loving pricks, everywhere I looked, doing the exact same loving thing... over and over and over and over again thinking 'this time is gonna be different' no, no, no please... This time is gonna be different,
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Mar 19, 2023 23:42
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If you want a realpolitik answer then obviously the party with the most to gain would be Ukraine by removing the Nordstream as a bargaining chip for Russia to leverage against the EU. However, realpolitik also says Ukraine would have the most to lose because that would cause all of their western support to dry up, as it would rightfully be taken as terroristic coercion. The synthesis of these comes out to pointing towards the bombers being a strongly pro-Ukrainian source with 1) the ability and equipment to do such an operation and 2) the ability to shrug off any kind of negative repercussions if caught This to me points towards the bombers either being the US (which provides the bulk of Ukrainian military aid anyway and who also has a vested interest in removing EU dependence on Russian fossil fuels) or a US-sanctioned third party (in my view most likely a plausibly deniable Ukrainian operation using US intelligence and gear but not actual US hands on the pipeline) Of course I guess it could've been Russia if for no other reason than it would be one of the worst moves they could make in a war that has been a series of hitting themselves in the balls increasingly harder at every opportunity
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Mar 19, 2023 23:42
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The League of Shadows, ironically. found itself aligned with the CIA methinks!
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Mar 19, 2023 23:44
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People, the Russians looked into it very closely, and apparently it was us.  Seems legit. We are famously perfidious.
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Mar 20, 2023 00:05
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It was James Bond, in the Pipeline, with the Maintenance Bot Next game - gas monopoly 
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Mar 20, 2023 00:08
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The CIA put into play their assets already inside German environmental extremist groups who have long been salivating to fuckup those pipelines and they suddenly found themselves in possession of two ROV submersibles pre-filled with explosives and a coupon book good for among other things, a no questions asked charter of a heavy equipment sea launch barge.
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Mar 20, 2023 00:10
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"Neo Japanamerica shot the Akira orbital laser at the pipeline and I have proof" - Seym0ur Hersh
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Mar 20, 2023 00:11
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Toxic Mental posted:"Neo Japanamerica shot the Akira orbital laser at the pipeline and I have proof" - Seym0ur Hersh fuckin sick
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Mar 20, 2023 00:12
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seymour buttz was accidentally right one time in his career and hes been riding it ever since
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Mar 20, 2023 00:13
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What I'm finding myself asking time and time again is could putler flush his toilet hard enough to split the nord stream in two? It seems unlikely, yet I find myself unable to fully dismiss the idea.
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Mar 20, 2023 00:19
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HonorableTB posted:Of course I guess it could've been Russia if for no other reason than it would be one of the worst moves they could make in a war that has been a series of hitting themselves in the balls increasingly harder at every opportunity seriously. it was also right around the time they were crowing about how winter would decimate the EU's morale - maybe they thought making the pipelines unrecoverable would twist the knife as Europeans sobbed apologies to Mother Russia at their thermostats? Seems like such an own goal though. By this point Germany was already complying about divestment and whatnot and the political fallout is such a risk I don't really buy the collective west doing it intentionally either, at least without a lot of layers of misdirection to keep it ambiguous. In the end I rabbit-ear my pockets and go "I'm glad they're offline I guess  "CommissarMega posted:My own this guess is my favorite. "but causing a giant methane release to do some stock or commodity price shenanigans is hysterically evil - ... oh, but it's oil companies,"
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Mar 20, 2023 00:22
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