The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

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anime was right: Jun 27, 2008; death is certain
keep yr cool

yeah im an aarp member because i needed an account to test something at work lol

# ? Mar 28, 2023 05:09

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# ? May 25, 2024 14:51

anime was right: Jun 27, 2008; death is certain
keep yr cool

excellent snipe, really putting myself out there

# ? Mar 28, 2023 05:09

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

joepinetree posted:

There are plenty of villas, cabins, multiroom suites, bed and breakfasts and so on that all do precisely that type of thing. The difference for Airbnb that will make it "better" and cheaper is that the airbnb doesn't have to worry about zoning regulations (which drives up price for hotels as well as limits locations), safety regulations (which drive up cost by requiring emergency exits and sprinklers/etc), labor contracts and so on.

Like, family gatherings, bachelor parties, etc all existed before airbnb existed. The only thing airbnb does is bypass regulations, taxes and unions.

That 6br with a pool and outdoor bar is only "affordable" because it pays taxes and fees as if it was a residence rather than a business, avoids all the limitations on commercial property, and relies on unpaid or informal labor rather than contracted workers for the cleaning and maintenance.

this seems bad

# ? Mar 28, 2023 05:51

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

just like uber, the only real benefit is a universal interface that could be provided by any governmental organization

# ? Mar 28, 2023 05:55

DementiaEncarnate: Mar 27, 2023; by Fritz the Horse

Paradoxish posted:

Cooking while on vacation is honestly really nice and I highly recommend it.

# ? Mar 28, 2023 06:05

DementiaEncarnate: Mar 27, 2023; by Fritz the Horse

mawarannahr posted:

tourism

# ? Mar 28, 2023 06:06

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/markets/status/1640502941080604673?s=20

quote:

The country�s property boom � which saw prices increase by almost 250% in the past 20 years � was fueled by razor-thin borrowing costs and a shortage of rental properties. This lack of housing squeezed poorer families into overcrowded accommodation. And pushed others into buying � the total value of mortgages increased 459% in the two decades up to 2022. Before the latest crisis, household debt, including mortgages and consumer debt, had soared to more than 200% of disposable income, according to the OECD�s latest data from 2021. That is double the level in Germany.

# ? Mar 28, 2023 06:23

joepinetree: Apr 5, 2012

It's impossible to understate how little airbnb gives a gently caress about breaking laws.
Whole apartment short term rentals are not allowed in residential multifamily buildings in NYC. You can find literally thousands of them listed anyways.
Atlanta has a law that says that people can only have 2 short term rental properties in the city, and one of them has to be your primary residence. You can find hundreds of "superhosts" listing dozens of properties at once.
LA requires short term rentals to be registered with the city, only be done at the hosts primary residence, and that the registration number be displayed on the listing. Some org looked into it and like 2/3s were out of compliance.
Once you have several thousand listings, even if the city wanted to they'd never make a dent in terms of actual prosecution

# ? Mar 28, 2023 07:51

BULBASAUR: Apr 6, 2009; Soiled Meat

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/markets/status/1640502941080604673?s=20

Can anyone paste past the paywall?

# ? Mar 28, 2023 07:57

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

joepinetree posted:

Once you have several thousand listings, even if the city wanted to they'd never make a dent in terms of actual prosecution

legally, it'd be pretty trivial for a municipality (or state) to pass a law regulating short-term rentals that allows the government to issue DMCA-like takedowns for individual listings on short term rental sites. remember, a few cities regulated Uber pretty tightly when it first launched. actual prosecution would never happen which sucks but they could hand out some overtime to clerks and take down all the noncompliant listings in a month if they wanted to. they don't, though

# ? Mar 28, 2023 08:16

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

BULBASAUR posted:

Can anyone paste past the paywall?

https://archive.ph/tPdJ6

# ? Mar 28, 2023 09:32

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

indigi posted:

legally, it'd be pretty trivial for a municipality (or state) to pass a law regulating short-term rentals that allows the government to issue DMCA-like takedowns for individual listings on short term rental sites. remember, a few cities regulated Uber pretty tightly when it first launched. actual prosecution would never happen which sucks but they could hand out some overtime to clerks and take down all the noncompliant listings in a month if they wanted to. they don't, though

The difference is probably that local officials weren't driving Uber in their spare time, but guess what many of them own as passive income!

# ? Mar 28, 2023 12:08

Insanite: Aug 30, 2005

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/markets/status/1640502941080604673?s=20

In a better timeline, this might be cause for a Miljonprogrammet 2.

# ? Mar 28, 2023 19:17

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Like Uber, AirBnB got popular because they served an actual unmet need. Like Uber they rampantly disregard laws in order to be more profitable and that�s a real problem but your kidding yourself if you are pretending that there isn�t a use case for being able to rent out a full apartment or house for a few days vs hotel options. The solution is to hold them accountable to being short term hotels not to pretend that a hotel serves the same purpose.

# ? Mar 28, 2023 19:30

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

Thoguh posted:

Like Uber, AirBnB got popular because they served an actual unmet need. Like Uber they rampantly disregard laws in order to be more profitable and that�s a real problem but your kidding yourself if you are pretending that there isn�t a use case for being able to rent out a full apartment or house for a few days vs hotel options. The solution is to hold them accountable to being short term hotels not to pretend that a hotel serves the same purpose.

Maximizing landlord profitability isn't a need

# ? Mar 28, 2023 19:37

simmyb: Sep 29, 2005

BULBASAUR posted:

Can anyone paste past the paywall?

Sorry phone posting so not editing out the photo captions

quote:

y

Anton Wilen and

Chris Reiter
March 27, 2023, 11:01 PM UTC

A half-finished bridge designed to connect two Stockholm neighborhoods has come to epitomize the seismic change Sweden is going through. On one side, an affluent neighborhood that's part of one of Stockholm's oldest suburbs, on the other, an enclave of 1970s-era public housing blocks with a dense population of migrants and a reputation as a trouble spot.

The two suburbs — Ursvik and Rinkeby on the outskirts of the Swedish capital — are physically separated by a four-lane highway. Yet the divisions are much wider than that in a country built on egalitarian ideals, but which now finds itself in the grip of an economic and social crisis. Some local politicians complain that the bridge, originally planned for public transport but now used as a pedestrian crossing for the residents from Rinkeby to visit shops on the other side, is damaging their property prices and that it could cause criminality to spread.

Several want it pulled down.
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
The suburb of Rinkeby on the outskirts of Stockholm, on March 26.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

It is a reminder that while Sweden sits between France and Switzerland in a ranking of dollar billionaires, many poorer Swedes have seen the gap between the haves and the have-nots widen dramatically in recent times. The economy has been buffeted by rising inflation over the past 12 months, interest rate hikes and a slumping currency. The fallout has triggered Europe’s worst house price collapse and a drop in household consumption. Even with the upheavals from the Ukraine war denting other European nations, Sweden is the only economy in the region projected to contract in 2023.

At the heart of Sweden’s woes is a dysfunctional housing market, which has not only cemented social divides, but exacerbated them.

The country’s property boom — which saw prices increase by almost 250% in the past 20 years — was fueled by razor-thin borrowing costs and a shortage of rental properties. This lack of housing squeezed poorer families into overcrowded accommodation. And pushed others into buying — the total value of mortgages increased 459% in the two decades up to 2022. Before the latest crisis, household debt, including mortgages and consumer debt, had soared to more than 200% of disposable income, according to the OECD’s latest data from 2021. That is double the level in Germany.
Sweden's Income Inequality Has Been Creeping Up

Gini index in Nordic countries

Source: World Bank Note: The higher the number, the more unequal

Until now these problems had been papered over by cheap money and an ever-growing economy. With both coming to an end the vulnerabilities in the system are being exposed. An over indebted middle class now faces the prospect of not being able to afford to pay their mortgages, much less everyday luxuries.

At the same time the number of corporate bankruptcies soared to the highest level in at least a decade in January as construction companies came under pressure. The rate of home construction is now expected to fall to roughly half of what is needed to keep up with population growth, creating a vicious cycle that sows the seeds for more housing strain in the months and years ahead.
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
Some local politicians complain that the bridge is damaging property prices in Ursvik.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

The central bank views real estate lending as the biggest risk in the financial system and has warned about the impact of rising household debt on everything from consumption to bankruptcies and bank losses. It has repeatedly called for housing and tax reforms with former Governor Stefan Ingves criticizing the level of the property tax, which is among the lowest in the world.

K2A Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter AB, a builder and manager of rental apartments, has lost 70% of its market value since the Riksbank started hiking rates last year. It has postponed almost all of its construction starts due to the market uncertainty. “If you're looking at the situation from a societal perspective, it's a huge problem,” Chief Executive Officer Johan Knaust said. “There will be a big vacuum in construction.”

The problems are mounting for the government. Although unemployment has remained relatively stable — telecom-equipment company Ericsson AB and Electrolux AB, the appliance manufacturer, are among those to announce job cuts — the rise in bankruptcies and slowdown in the economy could see that change. Meanwhile Sweden’s biggest pension fund has taken a hit of as much as $2 billion in the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Even membership of Nato, which seemed set to be fast tracked after Russia invaded Ukraine, has been caught up in geopolitical rows.

“There's a risk that residential construction will slow more than 50% this year,” Nordea Bank economist Susanne Spector said. “This will weigh on GDP and there's a risk that also other construction investments will fall. Some heavily indebted property firms and municipalities will probably delay projects.”
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
The unfinished bridge between the neighborhoods of Rinkeby, left, and Ursvik.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

Growing social tension became evident in last year’s election. Amid concerns about gang violence, which has led some to dub Sweden the gun-crime capital of Europe with almost 400 shootings last year, the once fringe Sweden Democrats became the second largest party. The nationalist group now props up Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s minority government.

The Rinkeby-Ursvik bridge is scheduled to be completed this year. But a local branch of the Sweden Democrats has already found an alternative use for it, trying to turn it into a political rallying point for its anti-immigrant message. “The bridge from Rinkeby makes it easier for criminals to recruit your children into crime,” the party told local voters during last year’s campaign. “We take your children’s safety seriously. Tear down the bridge!”
Rental black market

Christina Abdulahad remembers vividly the moment her dream, of renting an apartment in a quiet neighborhood of the Swedish capital, turned into a nightmare. The 28-year-old, a graduate of Lund University where she had advised other students about how to avoid fraud in rental housing, did her due diligence before she agreed to take on the new apartment.

But waiting to pick up the keys outside the three-room home she was alarmed to find others turning up to do the same thing. It transpired that Abdulahad, and around nine others, had handed over their deposits to a woman who had stolen the identity of the legal tenant. Abdulahad said she was cheated out of 43,500 Swedish kronor ($4,200), part of an elaborate fraud involving multiple bank accounts that raked in a total of about half a million Swedish krona, estimates Abdulahad, who met with numerous other victims.
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
Christina Abdulahad.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

“It felt like a nightmare,” said Abdulahad, choking up as she recalled how she dragged her belongings to the new flat in the Swedish capital. “It turned my life upside down.”

Karl-Johan Lantz, the officer leading the investigation into Abdulahad’s case, said the police had identified several more incidents with “the same modus operandi.” He added that they were set to question suspects over “fraud and possibly money laundering” offenses.

Critics argue that such cases are a byproduct of the dysfunction in the property market, one that is getting worse.

"I don't see any improvement for the coming years with the current policies," Alexander Wilson van Deurs, chairman for advocacy group Jagvillhabostad.nu, said. "More people will get hurt."
Swedish Housing Has Trailed Population Growth for Years

Annual changes in dwellings and population

Source: Statistics Sweden

Sweden has long fallen short on its constitutional pledge to provide an affordable place to live for all of its 10.4 million people, but until recently that was masked by the growing economy which had helped disguise flaws in the system.

The shortage of affordable accommodation is hitting recruitment. The Stockholm Chamber of Commerce reported last year that three out of four heads of human resources said the housing situation was making it harder for their firms to hire new staff.

Rents are negotiated annually by landlords and the tenants association. Advocates say the system helps create a rental market in Stockholm where teachers, police officers, street cleaners and other public sector workers can afford to live alongside bankers, software developers and government officials. Yet supply hasn’t kept up with demand for decades. Average waiting times for a rent-controlled apartment is now 9.2 years, but can stretch up to 20 years in some parts of the capital.
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
Although unemployment has remained relatively stable, the rise in bankruptcies and slowdown in the economy could see that change.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

That has sparked a black market in rental leases, which are now very valuable for those who hold them, but out of the reach of many of those who really need them. It has also opened the door to frauds like the one that ensnared Abdulahad.

This can be a lucrative business for those on the inside. They get a nice place for little money and can hold on to it for friends and family, or they can cash in by selling the lease under the table. But for migrants and others without the resources or connections to secure housing, they’re vulnerable and are forced into shady deals for rental apartments. One woman who needed housing for herself and her daughter paid $40,000 for one of these illicit rental leases in a suburb of Stockholm.

“What was I supposed to do,” said the woman, who asked not to be identified, “live under a bridge or queue 15 years for an apartment?”

The black market only works for those who can afford it. “We meet a lot of women who are returning to abusive relationships because they can't find anywhere to live,” said Fanny Hansen, a coordinator at a victim support group in Sodertalje south of Stockholm.

The government tried to clamp down on this illicit trade in 2019 by imposing penalties on buyers of second-hand leases, not just the sellers. Yet the illicit trade is rampant, even if the data is sketchy. One government report from 2017 put the share of re-sold rental contracts at between 10% and 50% of the public housing supply.

"There is an ongoing inquiry on bringing more order in the rental market, and this is an important part of the government's work to fight crime, including organized crime,” said Andreas Carlson, Sweden’s minister of housing and infrastructure. “This is a component in that work."
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
Construction crews are thin on the ground at the development site in Barkarby district.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg
Construction crunch

A few miles northwest of Stockholm is one of the country’s most ambitious projects designed to fill the housing gap. But construction crews have become thin on the ground at Barkarbystaden — a property development with plans to eventually house 30,000 people. Work on a cluster of 200 apartments that were supposed to be finished by early March was slowed, to drip feed their release into the market, in response to the slump. And local officials are delaying granting new building rights because of the economic environment.
relates to What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide
Emelie Grind.
Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg

Emelie Grind, director of community development at Jarfalla, the municipality redeveloping what was once a military airbase, justified delaying the grants, saying that “things need to settle down” first.

The site, which will be linked to downtown Stockholm by the city’s Tunnelbana mass transit system, is an example of what Sweden wants to be. Surrounded by nature reserves and dotted with parks and public spaces, the new urban center is designed for a mix of families and singles and has been served by electric self-driving buses since 2018.

But, said Martin Hofverberg, chief economist for Sweden’s tenants association, there is a disconnect in the market. “We have a system that is rigged to not build houses. When the economy slows down, construction plummets.”

To revive house building, local leaders want the government to restore investment aid. The initiative, which granted subsidies for constructing rental apartments and student accommodation, was ended by Kristersson’s coalition, which said it was too expensive.

It has also become a political minefield. Allowing landlords to charge more for attractive apartments, which could make more homes available, is unpopular with voters.

Carlson ruled out any new investment support but said the government does need “to broaden ownership so that more people can enter the market."

For Abdulahad, and tens of thousands of others, that will seem like a pipedream “I don’t have any hopes I will get the money back,” she said. “I just want the people stopped. This can’t keep happening over and over.”

# ? Mar 28, 2023 19:46

HashtagGirlboss: Jan 4, 2005

Thoguh posted:

Like Uber, AirBnB got popular because they served an actual unmet need. Like Uber they rampantly disregard laws in order to be more profitable and that�s a real problem but your kidding yourself if you are pretending that there isn�t a use case for being able to rent out a full apartment or house for a few days vs hotel options. The solution is to hold them accountable to being short term hotels not to pretend that a hotel serves the same purpose.

Partially it�s a question of whether that need should have been met or needed to be met. Much like same day delivery of pet toys or midnight delivery for Macdonalds, it�s unquestionably true that people wanted it and are willing to pay for it. The bigger question is whether the negative impacts really make filling that desire, which we had millennia if not having fulfilled, are worth it

My position on that for air bnb as with Amazon and Uber eats is no. We didn�t need it. We could live just fine without it. The negative effects are greater than the individual quality of life improvements

But that�s just me I guess

# ? Mar 28, 2023 19:54

War and Pieces: Apr 24, 2022; DID NOT VOTE FOR FETTERMAN

we already crossed that line with pizza delivery

# ? Mar 28, 2023 22:23

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

# ? Mar 28, 2023 22:29

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

hmmm i wonder who that signs for

# ? Mar 28, 2023 22:31

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

A Bakers Cousin posted:

hmmm i wonder who that signs for

gringo

# ? Mar 28, 2023 22:38

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Spergin Morlock posted:

gringo

# ? Mar 28, 2023 23:52

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

The Oldest Man posted:

Maximizing landlord profitability isn't a need

# ? Mar 29, 2023 00:09

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

this is wasted in the pics thread, it belongs here

https://twitter.com/DabSquad_Slank/status/1640509905890074625

# ? Mar 29, 2023 00:55

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/MaxCoatl/status/1640862735461388289

edit lol

https://twitter.com/KlooKloo/status/1640857660877578241

# ? Mar 29, 2023 01:00

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

i say swears online posted:

this is wasted in the pics thread, it belongs here

https://twitter.com/DabSquad_Slank/status/1640509905890074625

# ? Mar 29, 2023 01:03

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

i'm so mad

# ? Mar 29, 2023 01:04

Eason the Fifth: Apr 9, 2020

i say swears online posted:

https://twitter.com/MaxCoatl/status/1640862735461388289

edit lol

https://twitter.com/KlooKloo/status/1640857660877578241

Literal lol here

# ? Mar 29, 2023 01:33

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

i say swears online posted:

edit lol

https://twitter.com/KlooKloo/status/1640857660877578241

dying

# ? Mar 29, 2023 01:33

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

A Bakers Cousin posted:

dying

just like she did

# ? Mar 29, 2023 04:32

err: Apr 11, 2005; I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

i say swears online posted:

this is wasted in the pics thread, it belongs here

https://twitter.com/DabSquad_Slank/status/1640509905890074625

🤡

# ? Mar 29, 2023 04:35

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

i say swears online posted:

this is wasted in the pics thread, it belongs here

https://twitter.com/DabSquad_Slank/status/1640509905890074625

weeping blood atm

# ? Mar 29, 2023 06:58

Ice Phisherman: Apr 12, 2007; Swimming upstream
into the sunset

Trauma informed relationship they say.

# ? Mar 29, 2023 07:52

joepinetree: Apr 5, 2012

Thoguh posted:

Like Uber, AirBnB got popular because they served an actual unmet need. Like Uber they rampantly disregard laws in order to be more profitable and that�s a real problem but your kidding yourself if you are pretending that there isn�t a use case for being able to rent out a full apartment or house for a few days vs hotel options. The solution is to hold them accountable to being short term hotels not to pretend that a hotel serves the same purpose.

The "unmet need" that airbnb satisfies is "bypassing zoning regulations." Bed and breakfasts, short term rentals, etc all long predate airbnb. There was never a point where your only choice was hotel or nothing. I rented condos, whole houses, cabins in the mountains long before airbnb existed. The difference is that before the owner had to handle advertising, billing, etc. which allowed local authorities to regulate them. The thing that airbnb "allows" you to do that you couldn't before is to secretly rent a whole apartment in the middle of a residential area that forbids short term rentals.

Like, at least uber provides a legit benefit that isn't related to just breaking the law, because it was the first time you had this one app that you could use anywhere (instead of having to find the phone number for the cab service for each city). Airbnb's entire "case" is that it just plain ignores the law. It's the entirety of its innovation.

# ? Mar 29, 2023 09:05

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

finding a phone number for a cab company doesn�t seem like a huge onerous thing considering we all have smart phones

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:03

Nothus: Feb 22, 2001; Buglord

It allowed you to pay for a cab with a credit card and without having to worry about the tip.

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:27

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

empower *clap* more *clap* gay *clap* rent-seekers

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:32

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

it's cool that the American dream isn't liberty, justice, and the pursuit of happiness for all, it's a chance for everyone to become a rapacious vulture

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:33

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Nothus posted:

It allowed you to pay for a cab with a credit card and without having to worry about the tip.

And get a straight price. I remember walking down a line of cabs one time asking each one how much a ride was until I finally found one who wasn't trying to rip me off. And then there were the cabbies that would take you the long way to run up the meter if they thought you were from out of town.

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:34

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# ? May 25, 2024 14:51

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

euphronius posted:

finding a phone number for a cab company doesn�t seem like a huge onerous thing considering we all have smart phones

If you live in a place with reliable cab service, sure. That�s not most places.

# ? Mar 29, 2023 13:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

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