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How many quarters after Q1 2016 till Marissa Mayer is unemployed?
1 or fewer
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4
Her job is guaranteed; what are you even talking about?
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Shrecknet
Jan 2, 2005


dr_rat posted:

Oh okay, so it knows how to emulate an acid trip far better than pretty much anything else seen in tv or movies.

You know what, it's not terrible a terrible start. It's obviously got a long way to go before it's useful for like anything. The big question is, what is it going to be useful for. I can only assume it takes a poo poo load of processing power to actually make and seems like it's going to be a long while before it can do anything even remotely passable. Unlike with generating images which is much easier, I just don't see as much time going into training the AI for this just due to how much more processing power it must take, and how much harder a task it seems like it's going to be to actually get right.

porn

it takes specialized software and acres of data to make a simple deepfake using existing porn.

If I can just type "Scarlett Johanssen having sex with my fursona" into the prompt and it spits out a full, original porn of that, well... that's gonna be worth some money.

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notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Wow, Will Smith sure has gotten sloppy with eating spaghetti.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Oh, yep right. I somehow forgot that. I am not looking forward to what the internet makes of that, but um at least it fits the thread title I guess!

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Shrecknet posted:

porn

it takes specialized software and acres of data to make a simple deepfake using existing porn.

If I can just type "Scarlett Johanssen having sex with my fursona" into the prompt and it spits out a full, original porn of that, well... that's gonna be worth some money.

And will likely get nuked from orbit for obvious reasons.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Honestly I think that thing’s interpretation of furry porn might be less horrifying than its interpretation of human porn. The uncanny valley effect is just that bad.

Shrecknet
Jan 2, 2005


StratGoatCom posted:

And will likely get nuked from orbit for obvious reasons.
by who? Porn has won every single fight others have picked with it, because people really, really like porn.

or in other words,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_o8vYUU-jo&t=17s

Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Mar 29, 2023

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

dr_rat posted:

Oh okay, so it knows how to emulate an acid trip far better than pretty much anything else seen in tv or movies.

You know what, it's not terrible a terrible start. It's obviously got a long way to go before it's useful for like anything. The big question is, what is it going to be useful for. I can only assume it takes a poo poo load of processing power to actually make and seems like it's going to be a long while before it can do anything even remotely passable. Unlike with generating images which is much easier, I just don't see as much time going into training the AI for this just due to how much more processing power it must take, and how much harder a task it seems like it's going to be to actually get right.

Actually the way these ai systems work is an awful lot like an acid trip. They have a bunch of random signals that they try and recognize, which layers slight distortions that make it look more like a particular object as it shifts around. It repeats this until it's ability to recognize objects is convinced the pseudorandom blob in front of it is Sean Connery in a leprechaun outfit. It draws this and tells the world it met Sean Connery on a spirit journey.

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/

Signatures include some big names. I personally agree with the letter, the speed of these developments seem unsafe but I doubt openAI and Microsoft will be willing to lose the current lead they have.

Mega Comrade fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Mar 29, 2023

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
nobody would do anything useful about regulating ai in a six month timeframe

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Mega Comrade posted:

https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/

Signatures include some big names. I personally agree with the letter, the speed of these developments seem unsafe but I doubt openAI and Microsoft will be willing to lose the current lead they have.

Hahaha

Please stop predicting the next word for six months is kinda overblowing these AIs a bit.

People hyperventilating on both sides about text prediction is pretty funny. The companies over promising and critics believe them and have an existential crisis.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
You can put a pause on the work Microsoft and OpenAI is doing and regulate the systems run by US and EU corporations but the threat is the systems that will be controlled and run by Russia, China and organized crime and there will be no stopping or slowing that.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



At least half of these people signed this because their own work has been completely leapfrogged by that tech.

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Hahaha

Please stop predicting the next word for six months is kinda overblowing these AIs a bit.

People hyperventilating on both sides about text prediction is pretty funny. The companies over promising and critics believe them and have an existential crisis.

I think AI taking over the world is a little silly but LLM dramatically reducing the headcount at a lot of companies is going to happen.

Owling Howl posted:

You can put a pause on the work Microsoft and OpenAI is doing and regulate the systems run by US and EU corporations but the threat is the systems that will be controlled and run by Russia, China and organized crime and there will be no stopping or slowing that.

Creating models greater than gpt4 takes huge amounts of resources. Probably only china can do that at the moment. Honestly China has a lot to lose over mas redundancies caused by AI and they also have a much tighter grip on what it's tech sector is doing, if China agreed to stop, it would have a much easier time doing it than the US would.

Mega Comrade fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Mar 29, 2023

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
They had to stop/pause signatures because it turns out the page auto updated whenever it was signed and all it verified was that the email given was valid.

“Xi Jinping” was a signatory before they wised up. “Adolf Bonerhitler” was probably a signatory too.

It’s too bad they didn’t use LLM to predict obvious human behavior.

Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Mar 29, 2023

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Hahaha

Please stop predicting the next word for six months is kinda overblowing these AIs a bit.

People hyperventilating on both sides about text prediction is pretty funny. The companies over promising and critics believe them and have an existential crisis.

The signatures include AI experts. And I don't mean Elon Musk, I mean actual experts. Head researchers at deep mind, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark.

These are not idiots playing with chatGPT and thinking it's sentient, these are people who have been studying AI for most of their professional lives who are concerned that we need legislation before proceeding any further because the speed at which things are progressing is dangerous.

Mega Comrade fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Mar 29, 2023

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Shrecknet posted:

by who? Porn has won every single fight others have picked with it, because people really, really like porn.

or in other words,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_o8vYUU-jo&t=17s

There is no world that visa/mastercard and any legitimate payment processor is going to provide services for a website that generates deepfake porn based off of real people. This leaves the shady payment processors based in like Russia or cryptocurrency. Someone who’s savvy enough to convert cash to buttcoins just to buy illegal deepfake porn is probably a lost cause in regulation and the people who enter their credit card info into realvisapayment.ru are gonna get hosed with their identity being stolen eventually.

Next to the payment processors, you’ve got domain registrars, servers, cdns, etc, all of who are also not going to go anywhere near illegal deepfake porn.

Then you’ve got laws like revenge porn laws that already exist today. Not to mention CSAM related laws that will absolutely gently caress people over.

You’re right, deepfake porn is probably going to be a thing if it isn’t already. But it’s going to be relegated to the dark corners of the internet much in the same way CSAM is, and if they can pass laws for those types of contents I’m sure they can regulate deepfake porn under similar frameworks.

woke kaczynski
Jan 23, 2015

How do you do, fellow antifa?



Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/guntrip/status/1640694869785030657
https://twitter.com/guntrip/status/1640695226728587264

I don't think the chatbots are gonna destroy us all quite yet, folks

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Mega Comrade posted:

The signatures include AI experts. And I don't mean Elon Musk, I mean actual experts. Head researchers at deep mind, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark.

These are not idiots playing with chatGPT and thinking it's sentient, these are people who have been studying AI for most of their professional lives who are concerned that we need legislation before proceeding any further because the speed at which things are progressing is dangerous.

Yeah, while there are a myriad of issues with this petition, the underlying concern is legit.

The issue here is that these models have severely outperformed expectations in a number of remarkable ways. There are a large number of unanswered questions at play, and our ability at guesstimating technological horizons has been severely compromised for the time being. This is objectively not good, and has large repercussions as far as policy-making, resource allocation, etc... goes. They are advocating letting go of the gas (not putting the brakes) until we get our bearings back. The problem is not about what they can do, it's that we did not see it coming.

The main issue I personally have is that it's incredibly unrealistic, but I can definitely appreciate raising the alarm on this.

edit: The other issue I have is more of a technical one: Model power is not connected that directly to number of parameters, making it a bad metric to target. It's been known since the 70s that too many parameters almost always leads to overfitting, and recent research indicates that there is still a lot more performance to be extracted from LLMs with sub-GPT4 parameter counts.

Also, while the people arguing about consciousness, the singularity, etc... are over the top silly, the "It's just predicting the next word" and the "It's just a very fancy search through the training data" framings are not much better. This may be how we interface with these systems, but that informs little about its capabilities. Applying White Box reasoning to models of that magnitude just does not make sense.

Aramis fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Mar 29, 2023

woke kaczynski
Jan 23, 2015

How do you do, fellow antifa?



Fun Shoe
The issues they raise are fair, but they are societal issues not technological ones (which I think they are also saying) and that is exactly why that letter will achieve absolutely nothing. I've done my share of activism that led to sweet gently caress all in my time so no hate

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

milkshake recipe sucks.

your suppose to cut open the pods and scrape tje vanilla stuff into the THING, not sure how edible the dried out skin pods are.

PhazonLink fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Mar 29, 2023

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

Shrecknet posted:

porn

it takes specialized software and acres of data to make a simple deepfake using existing porn.

If I can just type "Scarlett Johanssen having sex with my fursona" into the prompt and it spits out a full, original porn of that, well... that's gonna be worth some money.

This is a particularly fun example. For things that don't actually exist, like anthropomorphic screaming hairy armadillos, where does the training data come from? It has to come from art. But it's not like there's just one way to anthropomorphize an animal, on top of variations in art style. And most of these models still struggle with fingers. I feel like including enough furry poo poo that a model can handle different degrees of furryness--let alone sparkledogs with stars in their fur or three different kinds of wings--is gonna produce exciting new ways to malfunction and I am here for it.

dphi
Jul 9, 2001

PhazonLink posted:

milkshake recipe sucks.

your suppose to cut open the pods and scrape tje vanilla stuff into the THING, not sure how edible the dried out skin pods are.

Good poem though

tk
Dec 10, 2003

Nap Ghost

Mega Comrade posted:

The signatures include AI experts. And I don't mean Elon Musk, I mean actual experts. Head researchers at deep mind, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark.

These are not idiots playing with chatGPT and thinking it's sentient, these are people who have been studying AI for most of their professional lives who are concerned that we need legislation before proceeding any further because the speed at which things are progressing is dangerous.

Anybody who signed their name to this can be dismissed as somebody who will not be contributing to the future of AI. They don’t understand how people work.

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

PhazonLink posted:

milkshake recipe sucks.

your suppose to cut open the pods and scrape tje vanilla stuff into the THING, not sure how edible the dried out skin pods are.
Dried and ground vanilla beans are just vanilla powder, which is a fairly common ingredient, and can almost always be used as a vanilla extract substitute. I've never tried putting vanilla powder directly in a milkshake, but it would probably be okay. Generally, the ice cream provides enough flavor by itself, so it mostly just seems a bit unnecessary.

Ruffian Price
Sep 17, 2016

Aramis posted:

Model power is not connected that directly to number of parameters, making it a bad metric to target. It's been known since the 70s that too many parameters almost always leads to overfitting, and recent research indicates that there is still a lot more performance to be extracted from LLMs with sub-GPT4 parameter counts.

For sure, but have you considered that we can point at two datapoints to get infinite funding instead

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

tk posted:

Anybody who signed their name to this can be dismissed as somebody who will not be contributing to the future of AI. They don’t understand how people work.
What else can they reasonably do besides make noise via the press, though? Start a bombing campaign against GPU manufacturers?

tk
Dec 10, 2003

Nap Ghost

pumpinglemma posted:

What else can they reasonably do besides make noise via the press, though? Start a bombing campaign against GPU manufacturers?

A lot of these folks have been working in this space for years if not decades. If having these guidelines in place is so important, and they can be put together in 6 months, I’m wondering what exactly they’ve been working on without these guidelines.

I don’t see any ideas, outlines, or proposals about what needs to be done. No plan on how things would come together so quickly. All I see is a bunch of FUD.

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!
Politicians generally have a habit of never taking anything seriously until the 11th hour.

Rogue AI Goddess
May 10, 2012

I enjoy the sight of humans on their knees.
That was a joke... unless..?

Aramis posted:

The issue here is that these models have severely outperformed expectations in a number of remarkable ways. There are a large number of unanswered questions at play, and our ability at guesstimating technological horizons has been severely compromised for the time being. This is objectively not good, and has large repercussions as far as policy-making, resource allocation, etc... goes. They are advocating letting go of the gas (not putting the brakes) until we get our bearings back. The problem is not about what they can do, it's that we did not see it coming.
I have a modest proposal for drafting policy and estimating horizons: use AI assistance to cut down time from 6 months to 6 minutes.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Boris Galerkin posted:

There is no world that visa/mastercard and any legitimate payment processor is going to provide services for a website that generates deepfake porn based off of real people. This leaves the shady payment processors based in like Russia or cryptocurrency. Someone who’s savvy enough to convert cash to buttcoins just to buy illegal deepfake porn is probably a lost cause in regulation and the people who enter their credit card info into realvisapayment.ru are gonna get hosed with their identity being stolen eventually.

Next to the payment processors, you’ve got domain registrars, servers, cdns, etc, all of who are also not going to go anywhere near illegal deepfake porn.

Then you’ve got laws like revenge porn laws that already exist today. Not to mention CSAM related laws that will absolutely gently caress people over.

You’re right, deepfake porn is probably going to be a thing if it isn’t already. But it’s going to be relegated to the dark corners of the internet much in the same way CSAM is, and if they can pass laws for those types of contents I’m sure they can regulate deepfake porn under similar frameworks.

This poo poo honestly is the only thing AI gen is useful for; it's looking like the USCO is sticking with the view that AI generated poo poo is uncopyrightable and rumblings are that at least some big names are starting to update contracts to ensure this poo poo doesn't enter their chains.

And before someone invokes The Mouse, if that doctrine changes, we have bigger problems because the copyright system just had a sewer outlet constructed in its living room and the whole thing is going to lurch to a halt under a tide of AI copyright trolling.

StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Mar 30, 2023

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Mega Comrade posted:

The signatures include AI experts. And I don't mean Elon Musk, I mean actual experts. Head researchers at deep mind, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark.

These are not idiots playing with chatGPT and thinking it's sentient, these are people who have been studying AI for most of their professional lives who are concerned that we need legislation before proceeding any further because the speed at which things are progressing is dangerous.

What's dangerous isn't the speed that things are progressing; the stuff that's already out there is quite dangerous enough. The likely intention of the letter is to draw attention away from the current harms that "AI" tools are already inflicting right now, by instead placing the focus on hypothetical future harms that a potential future "human-competitive intelligence" could inflict.

Elon Musk is signing (and loudly hyping up) a letter complaining that OpenAI is developing AIs too fast and too irresponsibly, while at the same time he's got tens of thousands of "self-driving" cars on the roads killing people and wrecking poo poo, which he'll happily advertise as being powered by "AI".

The letter warns about the threat that powerful "nonhuman minds" might someday lead to "loss of control of our civilization", but it doesn't have a single word to spare for the real harms that ChatGPT3 and even basic-rear end machine-learning poo poo are already inflicting on us.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Rogue AI Goddess posted:

I have a modest proposal for drafting policy and estimating horizons: use AI assistance to cut down time from 6 months to 6 minutes.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001
Honestly the stated goal and most of the content of the letters petty useless. It has seemed to of had a very small effect of starting a bit more conversation about AI's and potential harms which is good though and hopefully that will be the main take away from the letter. Although I think it will probably just be completely forgotten about within two weeks.

As far as a call to action, I think it was a really dumb one and not a great starting off point for conversation, but it did get headlines I guess so :shrug:.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Incidentally it turns out to be really hard to get chatGPT to opine on how it could be used to replace workers and it will try to talk about how it can enhance their work product instead and would never replace them

it'll happily write termination letters because they have been replaced by chatGPT and denials that the termination letters were automatically generated and insincere though

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


FWIW in my experience, having tested this a few times for shits and giggles, the form letters that ChatGPT drafts are completely awful and would absolutely require human intervention to not embarrass yourself.

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

If and only if the person using them gave even the tiniest gently caress.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/1641040123721658369

Someone's supposedly running scams against older parents with not-entirely convincing deepfakes of their adult children's voices.

quote:

When Donna Letto got a phone call one day in December, she says, she recognized the voice on the other end of the phone.

Or at least, she believed she did.

"I thought it was my son," the St. John's woman told CBC News in a recent interview.

Her son's voice sounded a little off, though, and she asked him about it.

"I said, 'You've got a bit of a cold, don't you?' He said, 'Yeah, I've got a cold the last couple of days but there's nothing to it. It's not COVID.' Then he said, 'I've been in an accident in Toronto and I hit a woman that's pregnant and she's been sent to the hospital with multiple injuries,'" said Letto.

"He said, 'Mom and Dad, I need your help.' We were really taken. I thought for sure it was our son. The kids never asked us for help before."

I'm not really sure what convinced them that this is actually a deepfake rather than a close-enough voice filter, besides some AI expert saying that it's possible and also the victims' own embarrassment at nearly falling for it.

Trevor Hale
Dec 8, 2008

What have I become, my Swedish friend?

Saw this on LinkedIn but if you run a google search for

"regenerate response" -chatgpt

You’ll find things in the index that were copy/pasted from chatgpt but not edited because they grabbed the regenerate response CTA

When I tried this yesterday I found an old lady’s obituary and got too sad to even put it into words.

Neo Rasa
Mar 8, 2007
Everyone should play DUKE games.

:dukedog:

eXXon posted:

https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/1641040123721658369

Someone's supposedly running scams against older parents with not-entirely convincing deepfakes of their adult children's voices.

I'm not really sure what convinced them that this is actually a deepfake rather than a close-enough voice filter, besides some AI expert saying that it's possible and also the victims' own embarrassment at nearly falling for it.

I think pretty soon deepfake is just going to be the general term for "my voice/face was impersonated" even for stuff like a static photoshopped image.

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Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
drat we passwords for Stranger Danger as kids and now we need passwords for deepfakes.

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