|
ARTPUP posted:The Biden Administration is pretty much anti-merger (and anti-oil, ...)... Is it really? The Willow project and drilling sounds like it's pretty pro-domestic oil exploration and production. Please correct me if I am wrong.
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 15:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 02:10 |
|
|
MetaJew posted:Is it really? The Willow project and drilling sounds like it's pretty pro-domestic oil exploration and production. Please correct me if I am wrong. They want to appear to be anti-drilling while authorizing more drilling.
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 15:12
|
|
|
Green corporate activism (like the Engine No 1 saga at Exxon) has been an unexpected short term boost for some oil investors. Discouraging further investment into drilling both restricts market supply (increasing price) as well as encouraging the companies to return more of those un-invested profits to shareholders in the form of dividends/buybacks.
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 15:24
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1640743390227709953 Interesting tweet because of what’s missing: any kind of sustained spike during the dotcom bubble.
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 17:20
|
|
|
pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1640743390227709953 Did that happen too quickly for it to create too much drawn out negativity? Also I guess it didn't really come with the same "oh poo poo the entire financial system is crumbling" that the GFC did. I wonder if the current negative sentiment is along existential lines like the GFC or more akin to whinging that the Fed is making number sad by raising rates.
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 20:56
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:Did that happen too quickly for it to create too much drawn out negativity? the sp500 didn't hit the bottom of the dot com bubble poppinguntil 2003, it was a rather drawn out slide down.
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2023 21:14
|
|
|
MetaJew posted:Is it really? The Willow project and drilling sounds like it's pretty pro-domestic oil exploration and production. Please correct me if I am wrong. On President Biden's first day in office he killed the Keystone pipeline project. He's generally stated "no more drilling" and giving the cold shoulder to oil and gas. So they held back on funding future projects. Now we face rising demand for oil (& higher prices) and Biden's been sucking from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on a regular basis to try and keep the prices down. And surprise! Oil and Gas producers are reluctant to fund new projects in the current administration. So now reality kicks in, the SPR can't be tapped forever, supply from secure sources can't keep up with demand and we're returning to 1970's times of inflation. Oh yeah, and we lost Saudi Arabia as an ally so China is now stepping up and buying from our sources. So what to do? Blame Russia of course! Then make nice with Venezuela and offer to lift some sanctions to get Chevron back in there. I mean, before you just let the country collapse and called President Maduro a blood thirsty dictator but now he's our pal. (my guess is the US is still going to try and get him killed within a few years) This to ensure the US can tap into a supply of oil, you know the same grade that would have come from Keystone.. Now they have no choice but to try and setup drilling projects on federal lands because there isn't a lot of choices left on US soil. If this was a Republican President, the media would be all over this screaming bloody murder. Everyone gives President (Old Man) Biden a pass because they are afraid of fuelling the Trump Dumpster fire. The US is in serious trouble. Buffet keeps buying Occidental Petroleum, he now owns over 20% of the company. There is a reason.
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 17:54
|
|
|
If only there was some kind of vehicle that dumbass 'muricans could purchase that got good mileage and/or didn't use petroleum
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 18:02
|
|
|
So ignoring every other cause of a decrease in new rigs, you, you think the lack of new rigs since 2020, caused by Biden's stance, is the primary factor driving recent/current inflation?
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 18:07
|
|
|
Jenkl posted:So ignoring every other cause of a decrease in new rigs, you, you think the lack of new rigs since 2020, caused by Biden's stance, is the primary factor driving recent/current inflation? The number of rigs has been dropping for decades. It's a useless metric because the production per rig isn't constant. Edit: lol at listening to the words that come out of a president's mouth. He's been paying lip service to no more drilling while authorizing more drilling.
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 18:13
|
|
|
Dept of Interior announced an auction of 73 million acres in the Gulf for drilling literally today.
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 21:49
|
|
|
Ignore on the first post seems worth it. Lol ya biden hates business
|
|
#
?
Mar 29, 2023 22:03
|
|
|
I read somewhere there's been gently caress all exploration expenditure over the last decade, largely because developing an oil/gas field is a very long term investment and no one can confidently claim there's going to sufficient demand in a decade or so to make these projects profitable.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 08:57
|
|
|
There's also a gently caress ton of rigs idle, seeping "new" oil ready to be pumped, waiting for oil to hit some magic price point to reactivate. An old friend of mine works for some lower mid tier oil company and she "manages" their "portfolio" of inactive wells on some spreadsheet. Companies trade them like magic:tg or Pokemon cards. There's still a lot of oil left in depleted fields, there's just a lot of lower hanging fruit. If you're willing to pay $200bbl I bet they could reactivate a well and ship the oil to your door in 90 days
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 09:10
|
|
|
Shell announced that they hit peak oil in 2021 and I know other companies have said similar things since the gas crunch a few months ago, so I'm kind of surprised that there's that much demand for new wells to be built
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 15:33
|
|
|
We're not eliminating our reliance on plastics, synthetics, and other petroleum derivatives last I checked, even in EVs. Conversation is rightly fuel centric but shouldn't be exclusive to it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 15:56
|
|
|
I would guess that local government is pretty dependent on oil revenue as well. Alaska famously has their Permanent Fund Dividend that paid out $3200 last year, and probably funds a lot of infrastructure In california they sell corn-based-plastic/disposable silverware already but you're right we're highly dependent on plastics
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 16:16
|
|
|
The Door Frame posted:Shell announced that they hit peak oil in 2021 and I know other companies have said similar things since the gas crunch a few months ago, so I'm kind of surprised that there's that much demand for new wells to be built Peak oil as in .... they're now in terminal decline?
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 16:40
|
|
|
Red posted:Peak oil as in .... they're now in terminal decline? Peak as in, "we don't forsee ever producing a larger volume of oil in any coming year" This CNN Article posted:Based on the company's forecasts, Shell's oil production will decline by as much as 18% by 2030, and 45% by 2050. But that means it will still be producing more than 1 million barrels of oil a day in 2050. (The company produced nearly 1.9 million barrels of oil a day in 2019) The era of oil is nowhere near over, just strange to have oil companies saying that they're slowly winding down production, but still be expanding production capabilities. I realize there's also a chance that I'm a naive idiot for relying on oil corporations to be honest about anything, but this is what Shell, BP, and others have said independent of one another
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 17:14
|
|
|
The vibe I’ve gotten is that a lot of these guys figure the oil price will slump so low they can’t make much long term, but Saudi, UAE, and other places can probably saturate the demand for chemicals/plastics/niche fuels.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 17:22
|
|
|
Yes that region is looking at investing rapidly into different types of energy and is about to become a lot more broadly invested. I wish I knew how to leverage that in the market somehow
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 18:11
|
|
|
Yeah, my understanding is they don't expect the price to drop tomorrow, it might even (probably will) be climbing for a few years, but the payoff on new fields and refineries is something like 20 years so they're very hesitant to invest now because they think the price is very likely to drop in that period due to the increasing use of alternatives. So better to stop expanding production now, profit off the increased price due to lowered supply in the short term, and not be holding a lot of worthless assets in the long term.
Bremen fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Mar 30, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 18:19
|
|
|
Nessus posted:The vibe I’ve gotten is that a lot of these guys figure the oil price will slump so low they can’t make much long term, but Saudi, UAE, and other places can probably saturate the demand for chemicals/plastics/niche fuels. globally, people are slowly trying to move away from oil on everything even at a governmental level. This is not just a matter of "oil bad" but more like more sustainable products that produce biodegradable plastics and move to ev's and a whole ton of other uses. This isn't something that magically happened in 2022, but the oil demand has been declining for the better part of a decade . Doesn't mean oil prices can't go to stupid levels, but at some point within a couple decades a lot of people will be walking away from oil as a majority. Common phrasing is "oil demand destruction", and it's been forecast for a decade. The recent pullback from Persian oil providers and Russia, etc are just tryin to keep price propped. efb: vvvvv Bremen posted:Yeah, my understanding is they don't expect the price to drop tomorrow, it might even (probably will) be climbing for a few years, but the payoff on new fields and refineries is something like 20 years so they're very hesitant to invest now because they think the price is very likely to drop in that period due to the increasing use of alternatives. So better to stop expanding production now, profit off the increased price due to lowered supply in the short term, and not be holding a lot of worthless assets in the long term.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 19:18
|
|
|
Red posted:Peak oil as in .... they're now in terminal decline? Shell doesn't want to be an Oil company over the long haul. It remains to be seen what they will look like when it's all said and done.
|
|
#
?
Mar 30, 2023 20:26
|
|
|
 
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 00:08
|
|
|
re: oil, it's good to keep in mind that the US is (just barely) a net exporter of oil, at least prior to the ukraine war: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727 quote:The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -0.06 million b/d in 2021, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 0.06 million b/d in 2021 But we operate our oil on the free market principles that mean if global oil prices rise, the price domestic oil consumers pay goes up too, even though in theory we could slam shut our borders and be self-sufficient on oil priced at whatever fixed price the government says. There are obviously a lot more complexities.
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 00:17
|
|
|
wtf burry i sold everything based on your advice!!!
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 00:41
|
|
|
The RYCEY I got at its 3 year peak back in Summer/Fall 2021 (because I'm smart) is finally back to where it was. Finally, this investment has paid off and I have gained 0.57%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 02:49
|
|
|
I bought a meta quest 2 last week. I bought meta puts this week. (The thing is fun and all, but as a platform/strategy it's been a very enlightening experience. Let's just say I'm really glad I can play my steam library through it)
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 18:04
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 31, 2023 22:43
|
|
|
I bought some 4/21 $DWAC and $RUM puts on their big jumps today. Hoping that’s plenty of time for both of them to sell off.
|
|
#
?
Apr 1, 2023 02:41
|
|
|
RUM sure but DWAC still has that $10 relative floor. I sold DWAC calls 😈
|
|
#
?
Apr 2, 2023 04:28
|
|
|
Let's assume, for the sake of fun argument and theorycrafting, that in 2023 there is a default on Treasurys in the form of delayed payment on coupons or principal at maturity. This is a very low probability (not saying this is at all likely). For argument's sake, how would you hedge against this in a long-only, (no inverse ETF / no options / no leveraged ETFs) portfolio? gold? often moves in tandem with bond prices money market fund? often backed by treasury bills (although I'm sure the fed would backstop these via reverse repo if needed) foreign sovereign bonds? yields often move with treasurys stocks? if the US govt is in default, that will spell disaster for other spending too, thus misses on corp revenues vol? no leveraged ETFs corp bonds? yields often move with treasurys commodity ETF? if US govt spending sinks, so does demand for most commodities currency ETFs? maybe I'm not sure if there is a great solution here. The most likely safe option would be a money market fund. The comedy options would be like, a long Yen fund or a A/AAA IG fund like QLTA (seeing corp yields go below T-Bond yields). Maybe gold would decouple with bonds.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 02:04
|
|
|
Iraqi dinars would probably be the way to go in that scenario
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 02:26
|
|
|
Long only and no options kills you there, it basically eliminates all the options that exist as hedges. Straight up cash would be the way I "hedge". I mean in real life puts would be the hedge but in this case I would probably just move to cash.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 05:52
|
|
|
my unserious answer is guns and beans, but the serious answer is probably that gold decouples with bonds when the us govt defaults on its debt, which is to say so many people would panic from the news and flee to gold that you should have a field day selling into the stratospheric rocketing upwards of gold prices
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 06:18
|
|
|
Foreign sovereign funds would inversely correlate in this instance, their historical performance is irrelevant it’s based on systemic risk but in this instance the idiosyncratic risk applying to treasuries would mean they’d decouple. Long term 1-3 new treasury type sources would probably emerge snd the calculation for the risk free rate for the CAPM model would probably change.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 07:31
|
|
|
pseudanonymous posted:Foreign sovereign funds would inversely correlate in this instance, their historical performance is irrelevant it’s based on systemic risk but in this instance the idiosyncratic risk applying to treasuries would mean they’d decouple. Long term 1-3 new treasury type sources would probably emerge snd the calculation for the risk free rate for the CAPM model would probably change. eh, maybe, but the having the gold standard, bed rock sovereign borrower default might be enough to scare everyone out of any sovereign debt. there's a chance no one cares that it's the us government shooting itself in the foot, at the end of the day if you can't trust a t-bill, what can you trust frankly i think in a scenario in which the us defaults there's a chance we get an extreme credit crunch in the vein of the great depression. in that historical case cash benefitted from severe deflation
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 07:44
|
|
|
pseudanonymous posted:Foreign sovereign funds would inversely correlate in this instance, their historical performance is irrelevant it’s based on systemic risk but in this instance the idiosyncratic risk applying to treasuries would mean they’d decouple. Long term 1-3 new treasury type sources would probably emerge snd the calculation for the risk free rate for the CAPM model would probably change. Yeah with all the constraints Bunds are probably the best bet. If you're just talking about delaying payments for a couple weeks or months while a debt ceiling deal gets worked out it's probably a nothingburger anyway. A money market fund though is probably the exact opposite of where you'd want to be. Regardless even if the treasury defaults there would no doubt be some convoluted program put in place almost immediately where the Fed takes defaulted bonds at par as collateral for loans at 0%.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 08:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 02:10 |
|
|
If the US cannot meet its obligation in paying back it's debts... what makes anyone think we'll still have an economy in a week?
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2023 09:49
|
|