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God what I would give to see Sussan 'screamer' Ley fall into leadership of the liberal party. Also happy but not surprised with the Aston result, fed election parachuted members failed miserably, they get called out quickly in independent media (rightfully so) and when Labor tried with Kennealy she got told to gently caress off before the campaign even started. If you don't have 7 figure income or go to church every Sunday, no one knows how to relate to the liberal party.
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Apr 2, 2023 03:03
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The "culture war" stuff with the Libs baffles me. Coz it has been proved to be counter-effective for multiple consecutive elections. Sure, it works for the Republicans in America, but for whatever reason, (and that is a discussion for another time), it doesn't work in Australia. In fact if you are actively fighting the culture war, people will actively vote against you. It happened with the Teal wave, it happened against the Vic. Libs, it happened in NSW, it keeps happening. So why? What earthly reason could there be to keep fighting against the scary LBGTQ folk, and the hordes of muslim brown skinned immigrants coming to take your job and rape your daughter and make the pies at the footy halal etc. It might make sense if one was a true believer, and seriously believed all the hatefull poo poo that you spewed. But these are LNP career politicians, they don't have a shred of integrity or strength of conviction in them. They would step over their grandmothers corpse to sell their grandfather if they thought it would get them a vote/keep their seat. Yet still, even though the electorate has said often and loudly "gently caress off with that poo poo.", they persist with it. The only reason I can come up with is that its some Felicity Kennett poo poo. I.E. everyone at the dinner parties they get invited to are always talking about the trans menace to the exclusion of everything else, so these out of touch fucks must think that it is what everyone else cares about.
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Apr 2, 2023 04:07
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As I understand it over the country but especially in Victoria LNP branches are stacked with ancient religious/arch conservative nutters, who still have a strong role in preselections and all the election support stuff. The more marginalised the LNP gets the more it becomes full of marginalised nutbags. Young liberals seem to all be the free market / small government / Ayn Rand types with a dash of social conservatives but they are highly concentrated in a few places seemingly so don’t reflect the overall picture of the party. The rest you can probably blame the Murdoch media for - which loves to spring on the back of the US/UK messaging - and probably Facebook algorithms which drive the branch membership into the same conspiracy sites. Edit: I think a big issue is that the LNP genuinely doesn’t have much of an economic platform other than “lower taxes and do less, except for our friends in mining/finance who we will happily give out massive handouts for as they fund us and will give us jobs after we lose our seats”. So they need to focus on stuff like the culture war thing because it hides they have no real agenda otherwise for doing anything for anyone in the country. Everyone might be screaming about housing, climate change, inequality, energy prices, stagnant wages and all they can really say is “welp”. At a federal level they barely did anything while in office except massively defund R&D (which will have multi decade impacts), destroy the automotive sector BEFORE working out a worker transition plan, implement massive tax cuts and burn billions on defence projects which never went through. What’s Dutton going to claim to do differently that any sane person would expect would lift any outcome for any non billionaire Australian - that won’t set Sky/his base off? They’ve stuck themselves in a corner. They flirted with someone who might do more (Turnbull) and while he was horrible anyway he was also relentlessly undermined by the conservative wing, the branches and the Nationals, a nice object lesson for any other future LNP leader flirting with actual policy to improve things. Edit2: at the state level LNP can’t get away with this because it’s all about service provision (especially health and education) and infrastructure, but their ideology is even more incoherent, especially with all the lessons of privatisation becoming much clearer in retrospect, so becomes just “we are good at government”. But then they get stuck with their association to the federal LNP and the stupid ideologues at branch level. Blamestorm fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Apr 2, 2023 |
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Apr 2, 2023 04:25
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Thing is about the culture war poo poo in the US is that it relies on a couple of things- very low voter turnout and the active cultivation over decades of a base of fanatics addicted to the narratives of hate and sadism, though 24 hour news media channels that are pretty much mind control for boomers. They neglected to actually set those up in Australia, despite the Murdoch monopoly on papers they really don't do the same thing, and of course mandatory voting being inverse voter suppression means that they can't rely on the only people who bother to turn out and actually get their votes counted being the radicalised. They're literally going off the modern American playbook without acknowledging material conditions on the ground at all.
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Apr 2, 2023 04:54
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edit- never mind.
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Apr 2, 2023 07:25
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I'm not gonna go all Bucky on you, but there is one dominant reason behind the Liberal Party becoming the Political equivalent of Sideshow Bob in a field full of rakes. This is the result of an organised and very effective campaign by a few pentacostal/evangelical Christian groups to take over the party at the branch level. Most people are barely even aware that political parties have branches, and that the Party Room and the Party are reallll different demographics. Or at least we're until recently. If the classic neolib Ayn Rand's feet sniffing Lib MP is to the right of the average liberal voter, the people running preselections and these days campaigns from the Party are about twice as far to the right of them. So you've had moderates being filtered out by preselection committee's stacked by people who literally think their God wants them to lock up gays and unmarried single mothers. The rest writes itself really.
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Apr 2, 2023 13:20
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They've flirted with mentioning it before, but next time Libs are in power nationally I absolutely expect there will be lots of talking points from them about how we need to have a discussion on if compulsory voting is an outdated relic of the past.
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Apr 2, 2023 13:25
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Don Dongington posted:I'm not gonna go all Bucky on you, but there is one dominant reason behind the Liberal Party becoming the Political equivalent of Sideshow Bob in a field full of rakes. This is the result of an organised and very effective campaign by a few pentacostal/evangelical Christian groups to take over the party at the branch level. yeah, that's a good observation. While mandatory voting might be required to vote which pre-selected candidate gets to be a member of parliament, each candidate is selected by the who is interested enough to turn up. Which means in the liberal party, the get out the vote scare tactics that work in the US for electoral and its consequent effects are in effect.
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Apr 2, 2023 13:32
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Senor Tron posted:They've flirted with mentioning it before, but next time Libs are in power nationally I absolutely expect there will be lots of talking points from them about how we need to have a discussion on if compulsory voting is an outdated relic of the past. Oh yeah. I'd be surprised if they haven't already started. The next logical step, as much logic as they have anyway, once they realise that somehow the majority doesn't quietly agree with them, is of course to make sure only the right people get to vote.
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Apr 2, 2023 13:57
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They've already tried to suggest we adopt red state style voter ID laws as one of the famous early Morrison-era thought bubbles and it got resoundly trashed by a bunch of Howard-era 'moderates' and centre right talking heads and quietly dropped. So expect to see it resurrected by the Dutton Libs any day now.
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Apr 2, 2023 18:14
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Apr 2, 2023 22:36
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BrigadierSensible posted:The "culture war" stuff with the Libs baffles me. It doesn't even work for the Republicans in America! The prophesied red wave never swept over partly because they could not stop hyperventilating about trans people. If it can't happen there, it's not going to happen here. But I would caution people who assume that it's joever for the Liberals here, and I think the idea of a Labor-Greens federal contest is not on the cards. You would need a total collapse of the Coalition, which I doubt either the Libs or Nats would allow, and at least one outright Greens state government to legitimise a play for federal government. That would take, if everything goes well, probably about two decades. The culture war psychosis isn't going well for the Liberals, but they can always benefit from economic issues against Labor. If there is any kind of crisis, that's when they can spring into action, provided that they don't start linking economic misfortunes with the rise of gender nonconformity. And if there is some kind of crisis, expect the psychos to link arms with the moderates again, and probably even expect to see some teals return to the fold.
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Apr 2, 2023 22:59
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If the Libs collapse it is not going to be the Greens who fill that void.
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Apr 2, 2023 23:04
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If American politics and society continues on it's trajectory hopefully the opposition to any attempt to introduce voluntary voting can just point and ask "Do you want that?"
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Apr 3, 2023 00:01
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There IS a crises right now, in housing. Neither liberal or labor want to do anything about it, so I doubt Mr Plod is going to propose anything for the next crisis.
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Apr 3, 2023 00:06
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i dont necessarily see how the housing crisis is going to provide a workable point of difference for the coalition but presumably their tactic will be to declare that its a result of labor waste and tbh itll probably work as it always has
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Apr 3, 2023 00:10
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The reserve bank sending us into a recession because taxing wealthy people is off the table is the crisis that will play into the coalition's hands. But if they keep denying climate and bashing trans people I don't think it'll help as much as they need
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Apr 3, 2023 00:26
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Jezza of OZPOS posted:i dont necessarily see how the housing crisis is going to provide a workable point of difference for the coalition but presumably their tactic will be to declare that its a result of labor waste and tbh itll probably work as it always has They'll call on Labor to further unlock Super for downpayments.
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Apr 3, 2023 00:31
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Landlord Party of Australia Australian Landlord Party
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Apr 3, 2023 00:49
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The LNP ran out of stuff to defund (“labah waste mister speakah”) so they need to wait for the ALP to actually start doing more stuff about the various crises we have then they will have a platform again to do none of it. That’s the real cycle.
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Apr 3, 2023 01:24
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I think it's also worth keeping a possibility in mind that a lot of these liberal party strategists likely came of age during the Howard years. Howard was absolutely successful in using culture-war style xenophobia to win elections, and even as late as Abbot against Gillard it was still a useful attack to go after refugees. Yes, the recent focus on LGBTQI people is backfiring on them, thankfully, but it's not like appealing to the darkest parts of the Australian psyche hasn't been consistently successful over the last two decades.
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Apr 3, 2023 01:34
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Blamestorm posted:The LNP ran out of stuff to defund (“labah waste mister speakah”) so they need to wait for the ALP to actually start doing more stuff about the various crises we have then they will have a platform again to do none of it. That’s the real cycle. The NDIS will almost certainly be cut to ribbons the next time the LNP are in.
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Apr 3, 2023 01:37
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Australia has always been racist but progressive on gender politics the first place to introduce women's suffrage
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Apr 3, 2023 01:39
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fez_machine posted:the first place to introduce women's suffrage lol
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Apr 3, 2023 02:10
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fez_machine posted:Australia has always been racist but progressive on gender politics New Zealand gave Women the vote in 1893. Nearly a decade before Australia did. Also looking on Wikipedia, The Pitcairn Islands, (noted gender progressives), did it in 1838.
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Apr 3, 2023 02:58
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The British Province of South Australia was the first place in the world to give women and men equal voting and representation rights in 1894. Note that Australia wasn’t a country at the time and this is not the same as being the first place to give women the vote, an already impossible task by 1894
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Apr 3, 2023 04:01
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Majestic posted:I think it's also worth keeping a possibility in mind that a lot of these liberal party strategists likely came of age during the Howard years. Howard was absolutely successful in using culture-war style xenophobia to win elections, and even as late as Abbot against Gillard it was still a useful attack to go after refugees. Yes, the recent focus on LGBTQI people is backfiring on them, thankfully, but it's not like appealing to the darkest parts of the Australian psyche hasn't been consistently successful over the last two decades. The wedge topics Howard used were pretty agnostic instead of the current LNP wedge topics that are all rooted in (American) fundamentalist Christianity because of the current state of the global right wing. I think we’re going to see conservative media try to go full Sinophobia, especially if our relationship with China deteriorates to a point where we actually feel a material impact. Today’s Andrew Bolt op-ed suggested that Dan Andrews’ underhanded trips to China were a ploy to peel Chinese voters away from the LNP as well as stack Victoria with Chinese immigrants. Kind of obvious where they’re trying to go, they’re eventually going to cry about Chinese immigrants committing voter fraud.
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Apr 3, 2023 04:10
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fortunately getting even more anti-china is unlikely to help them at all because most of the seats that the libs still hold in the major cities have large chinese populations that will continue to swing against them
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Apr 3, 2023 05:02
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Frankly shouldn’t underestimate also how much the ALP is playing a cautious small target strategy STILL, see the stage 3 tax cuts and using the safeguards mechanism as their main climate tool. There is a reason they aren’t being more ambitious.
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Apr 3, 2023 05:08
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lih posted:fortunately getting even more anti-china is unlikely to help them at all because most of the seats that the libs still hold in the major cities have large chinese populations that will continue to swing against them This is forgetting that a lot of Chinese immigrants are also anti Chinese-government. And by being anti-Xi, and anti-CCP is a good thing in the eyes of many Chinese immigrants.  They tried these ads last federal election. Although how much these ads are trying to appeal to Chinese anti-Xi immigrants, or just your bog standard racist anti-communist whitefolk is a matter of contention.
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Apr 3, 2023 05:33
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well that didn't seem to work very well for them - it's well established that there were big swings against the liberals amongst the chinese-australian population last election (& even at the recent nsw election). some immigrants from china may not like the chinese government but that doesn't mean they want war with it either
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Apr 3, 2023 06:18
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 Time to update Peter Dutton's political scandal indicator to EMBATTLED.
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Apr 3, 2023 06:18
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You think he puts his head in a buffer to get it so shiny?
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Apr 3, 2023 06:27
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lih posted:well that didn't seem to work very well for them - it's well established that there were big swings against the liberals amongst the chinese-australian population last election (& even at the recent nsw election). some immigrants from china may not like the chinese government but that doesn't mean they want war with it either And it's not like they're actually capable of threading the needle to separate the nationalist rhetoric from the racism, even if they make a token effort to try.
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Apr 3, 2023 06:31
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Vladimir Poutine posted:The British Province of South Australia was the first place in the world to give women and men equal voting and representation rights in 1894. Note that Australia wasn’t a country at the time and this is not the same as being the first place to give women the vote, an already impossible task by 1894 Funnily enough, it's the conservative opponents of womens suffrage who are responsible for that in SA. They got the suffrage changes amended to not just grant voting rights to women, but also allow them to be elected as representatives, thinking that taking it to this clearly absurd extreme would result in the vote failing. Instead the supporters of womens suffrage went "great!" and passed the improved version.
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Apr 3, 2023 06:56
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Senor Tron posted:Funnily enough, it's the conservative opponents of womens suffrage who are responsible for that in SA. Just today I passed a statue of the first woman elected to a council position being touched up by its sculptor.
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Apr 3, 2023 07:10
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woops, wrong thread
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Apr 3, 2023 07:31
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Filthy statue touchers
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Apr 3, 2023 07:37
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Newscorp running a story on how Scott Morrison is about to quit parliamentquote:Scott Morrison has fuelled speculation that he is poised to quit politics within months declaring “how good” life was despite the Aston by-election loss – as primary support for the Liberal Party crashes to 33 per cent. So the last election in 2022 had Morrison returned 62-37. But this also includes the state division of Miranda, which has a great piece of history: In 2011, it voted 71-29 for Graham Annesley. Annesley then decided he wanted to quit and get a different job. The 2013 election swung HARD, 55-49 Labor (+26.1% Swing) Now the narrative here is it was a protest vote against the state government, and indeed there were a lot of fire engines parked outside the polling booths with firies waiting to be asked their opinion on service cuts. But when asking around, the reason widely given was we had the Federal election on 7-September 2013, and then had to go back and vote for the 'quitter' on the 19th October 2013. Basically, people were pissed that they had to go vote again. Now, we just had the NSW election on 25th March. If Morrison decides to quit soon, we can hope for a repeat, and with a big enough 'Why-the-hell-am-I-having-to-vote-again' protest vote, a repeat of Aston is possible.
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Apr 3, 2023 07:40
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how good is life
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Apr 3, 2023 07:52
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