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rscott
Dec 10, 2009
https://twitter.com/ChrisDavisMMJ/status/1643021525904248833?t=IPxvgs3zG8sXjfSiegrXWg&s=19

So the Tennessee house republican caucus is looking to expel 3 of their Democratic colleagues for participating in a protest against gun violence. I don't know enough about the Tennessee state legislature to say if they have enough votes but it's clear that there is an appetite for purging undesirables from position of power in states with Republican supermajorities. This seems like a pretty big problem to me, and I don't really know what the federal government can do to stop it.

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kdrudy
Sep 19, 2009

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize if this isn't the right thread, but are there any polls out there tracking the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? How worried should we be?

From what I could find it sounds like Janet Protasiewicz, the more liberal candidate, probably has a slight advantage, but there isn't enough polling to really be sure. A poll done by a pro-conservative group that had her ahead by a couple of points seems to be the main data point here.

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize if this isn't the right thread, but are there any polls out there tracking the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? How worried should we be?

There have been very few polls, the ones that exist show Protasiewicz (D) with a slight lead. She is way ahead in fundraising though, so that should help.

Now ask me how worried I am that Vallas is going to win in Chicago.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Bird in a Blender posted:

There have been very few polls, the ones that exist show Protasiewicz (D) with a slight lead. She is way ahead in fundraising though, so that should help.

Now ask me how worried I am that Vallas is going to win in Chicago.

Yeah. Vallas is going to run away with it, right?

Automata 10 Pack
Jun 21, 2007

Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize if this isn't the right thread, but are there any polls out there tracking the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? How worried should we be?

https://twitter.com/tammybaldwinner/status/1642951833785122816?s=46&t=xjoX4EYhjjJHLNhbe-XLBA
The result of the midterms was the Dem Gov winning but the Dem Senator losing.

M&M is where all the cool communists are. WOW is where all the hitlers are.

Still favoring Janet but I’m nervous tbh.

Automata 10 Pack fucked around with this message at 03:47 on Apr 4, 2023

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Eric Cantonese posted:

Yeah. Vallas is going to run away with it, right?

Not likely. Polls have it very close with Johnson closing the gap in the last few weeks. Vallas still leads in the polls, but it should be close. Might not know the winner for a few days though depending on mail-in ballots.

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Rappaport posted:

I can't find it now, but I remember a rather passionate opinion written by some evangelical pastor about how Trump was everything wrong with America and no right-minded, to them, religious person should vote for him. And then it turned out...!

Trump embraced Christianity, and Evangelicals in particular, in a way no other modern President really has. Giving them that attention boosted his voting base, and allowed his sins to be forgiven. There are a lot of Evangelical leaders who have quietly said that Trump is going to be hugely detrimental to the church in the long run - but in the short run, he gave them power and access.

Tons of articles out there on the subject, but I'm hoping (praying?) that we're going to see a lot of change in American Christianity over the next decade or so, between the Trump/Evangelical falling out and the current issues the Southern Baptist Convention is going through. Lots of room for disillusion.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Shooting Blanks posted:

and the current issues the Southern Baptist Convention is going through.

I don't suppose you have a paragraph or two in you on this? effortposts are always welcome

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Slate has a really good interview with Senator Brian Schatz about housing policy and how so many Americans cities (generally run by Democrats) didn't take any action, or took negative action, on increasing the housing supply for decades until it was too late.

He also gets pretty deep into the details on the limited power the federal government has, but how progressive politicians need to start pushing housing as a "progressive value" and try to convince a lot of their voters who are progressive on every issue, but just don't want a lot of people living near their house or construction.

He also gets into the various reasons that housing is never a major issue in a Presidential campaign.

The whole interview is very good and hard to summarize because it hits so many different areas, but I've bolded all the questions so you can easily read it.

Full Interview:

https://slate.com/business/2023/04/brian-schatz-senate-housing-yimby.html

Probably the definition of too little, too late, and the donor class is going to be dead set against this to the bitter end, but would be interesting to see if centrist Democrats start to at least pay lip service to it.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Fister Roboto posted:

It's not that simple though. It's not like they're being presented with honest and objective facts and they're just deciding that they'd rather gently caress over minorities instead of have a better life. The problem is that they are being told over and over again that the minorities are the reason why they don't have a better life. They're being told that voting to gently caress over minorities IS voting in their own interests.

It IS voting in their own interests and they are deciding to gently caress over minorities because of that. That the people they vote for are not directly addressing ALL poverty is completely, 100% fine for these people. They want minorities not to have access to the trickle-down that has always been what non-wealthy Americans get. They are not looking for improvement in social support, job training, etc. or for any other solution until they are aware and certain that minorities are not provided access to it.

Stop trying to pretend these people are tricked. If they all were comfortable they would still vote to gently caress over minorities, like so many other Republicans are and do. Because they are lovely, terrible people with lovely, terrible morality where the main goal is to gently caress over minorities even if that has no direct effect on their own financial security.

Rappaport posted:



You're right, that was an awful post, I'm sorry. I suppose what I meant was that if roughly 40 percent of Finland votes for reactionary right-wing nonsense, what hope does America have? Of course you are correct that the US has fewer checks and balances, as it were, so their elections carry more weight.

Not all right-wing nonsense is equal or even reactionary (NEOliberalism) or fascist. I don't think roughly 40% of Finland votes for the type of politics exemplified by the Republican Party - full blood and soil politics.

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Apr 4, 2023

silence_kit
Jul 14, 2011

by the sex ghost

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Probably the definition of too little, too late, and the donor class is going to be dead set against this to the bitter end, but would be interesting to see if centrist Democrats start to at least pay lip service to it.

It isn't just the donor class or the 'landlord industrial complex'. A lot of average middle-class homeowners block new housing developments. A lot of ostensibly progressively-minded people paradoxically block new housing developments.

Building new housing is pretty unpopular among people who participate in local governments, and this is why it often doesn't get done. Homeowners, who have already bought in, tend to participate in local government more than renters. People who don't live in an area do not meaningfully get to participate at all.

The unpopularity of the idea and the US federalist system of government, where home rule is the mode of operation, might be the biggest impediments to using the US gov't power and money to lower housing costs for Americans. This is unfortunate, because a major public housing federal government program would really improve the lives of many Americans, and would be such a great use of the government money.

silence_kit
Jul 14, 2011

by the sex ghost

Mellow Seas posted:

A state can become wealthy due to resource/geographic advantages, absent good government policy. Places like North Dakota and Wyoming have high incomes and don't have many of the social ills and poor health outcomes of the old south and Appalachia. Those states also aren't basing half their policy decisions around punishing minorities (because they have relatively few), and that has been the case in the old Confederacy for... *checks notes* ever.

California is such an outlier in almost everything that it's hard to apply any of this. As it happens, over the decades that it was in the process of going from empty frontier state to the largest and most economically powerful in the country, it was fiercely Republican. But that was a different party (much of New England was pretty Republican until about the same era), and I find it hard to believe the state would be as wealthy now if Republicans had stayed in control and done things like underfunding/dismantling the UC system.

There is a very clear correlation that suggests a strong causal relationship between conservative government and poor economic performance; either that being poor makes white people vote overwhelmingly for Republicans or that white people voting overwhelmingly for Republicans makes a state poor. Probably some of both going on, but I lean towards the latter. I would certainly like further study of it, and of course they could both actually be related to some other factor.

I think you are overstating the role state government policy has on a state's wealth. I think you are ignoring my post w.r.t. California because it is unflattering to your case. I don't see it as some weird outlier. E.g. I would say that the states surrounding NYC & Washington DC are largely rich not because of state government policy, but because they surround the US financial capital since the beginning of this country and the seat of power of the federal government.

Here is another example, using national governments, which have a greater ability to affect the economy than state/provincial governments: the US is the richest country in the world, but it isn't as left-wing as many European countries. Would you attribute the US' relative economic success to its political bent? I suspect that you would not, and would be desperately searching for other explanations for why this is the case.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Places that get rich:

-Frontiers where there is massive expansion into easy to access resources
-The established centers of trade and finance that money from the frontiers flows through.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
California is not wealthy because of government policies, but the wealth is more accessible to the wider population due to them through progressive legislation, even if that wealth is not represented by direct money but spending on various aspects of society. Not massively more but enough to mitigate some of the worst effects of the wealth concentration of the highest echelons. No difference if you are say, homeless, but...better weather usually at the least?

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Google Jeb Bush posted:

I don't suppose you have a paragraph or two in you on this? effortposts are always welcome

I can try to summarize if that's helpful, but everything I know is based on a lot of reading. I have no first hand knowledge, I'm not religious.

Star Man
Jun 1, 2008

There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow

Mellow Seas posted:

A state can become wealthy due to resource/geographic advantages, absent good government policy. Places like North Dakota and Wyoming have high incomes and don't have many of the social ills and poor health outcomes of the old south and Appalachia. Those states also aren't basing half their policy decisions around punishing minorities (because they have relatively few), and that has been the case in the old Confederacy for... *checks notes* ever.

Where do you think all the Indian reservations ended up? Where do you think Keystone XL was? Wyoming and North Dakota don't have the same history with slavery like the eastern US does, but everything north of Boston is whiter than Wyoming.

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy

rscott posted:

https://twitter.com/ChrisDavisMMJ/status/1643021525904248833?t=IPxvgs3zG8sXjfSiegrXWg&s=19

So the Tennessee house republican caucus is looking to expel 3 of their Democratic colleagues for participating in a protest against gun violence. I don't know enough about the Tennessee state legislature to say if they have enough votes but it's clear that there is an appetite for purging undesirables from position of power in states with Republican supermajorities. This seems like a pretty big problem to me, and I don't really know what the federal government can do to stop it.

It doesn't feel like people are talking about this enough. There were like 10,000 students-- literal children there whose voices were silenced because the 3 people that stood up for them were silenced. loving horrifying.

Sir Lemming
Jan 27, 2009

It's a piece of JUNK!

Google Jeb Bush posted:

I don't suppose you have a paragraph or two in you on this? effortposts are always welcome

There are kind of a few different things happening to the SBC all at once. The biggest one obviously is just "Trump stuff" which I feel like is self-evident at this point and doesn't need much more elaboration. That's certainly not limited to the SBC, but they are currently the most prominent American Evangelical denomination. One of many interesting data points: racial diversity in SBC congregations had actually been increasing until roughly 2016, when it reversed course and is now about as low as it's been since we started measuring it. Along with many other statistics, that points to the SBC becoming a bit more of a small, insular, fundamentalist sect, though it's anyone's guess whether that actually means a reduction in power/influence.

The other big thing is the sexual abuse scandal which still kind of feels like it's in its early stages, waiting for the other shoe to drop, but so far it is definitely not good. It's indisputable at this point that they've been covering up widespread sexual abuse and maintaining a private list of abusers while denying that they could have provided any such list to people who would have a vested interest in knowing about it. To their credit, at what I think was their last big meeting (it's hard to keep up) they elected a president who promised to pursue justice and make reforms and fully cooperate with the investigation, versus another guy who wanted to use some bastardized "attorney-client privilege" thing to sweep it under the rug. But overall, their meetings seem to be getting more and more contentious; there's a power struggle reminiscent of the Fundamentalist takeover that happened around the time of Reagan (I'm not the best at history but I think that was when it happened, basically the Jimmy Carter backlash we were talking about a few weeks ago).

Meanwhile, they just kicked out Rick Warren's church for ordaining a female pastor. (He's the "Purpose Driven Life" guy.) She wasn't a lead pastor so it's debatable if they even technically broke a rule; plus, the SBC famously doesn't have a strict "creed" or hierarchical power structure, but they basically assume everyone agrees with certain things and selectively decide when to punish them for deviating. So there's likely to be a battle over that at their next thing, too.

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005

DarkCrawler posted:

Stop trying to pretend these people are tricked. If they all were comfortable they would still vote to gently caress over minorities, like so many other Republicans are and do. Because they are lovely, terrible people with lovely, terrible morality where the main goal is to gently caress over minorities even if that has no direct effect on their own financial security.

You are objectively, demonstrably wrong. White, blue-collar workers voted for Bill Clinton, and their lives continued to get worse. Thirteen percent of Trump voters also voted for Obama, without which the contest wouldn’t have even been close. Those people aren’t racist or motivated by race.

There’s no dearth of valid criticism to level against the right, but painting the voters as one dimensional cartoon characters isn’t one of them.

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

TheDisreputableDog posted:

You are objectively, demonstrably wrong. White, blue-collar workers voted for Bill Clinton, and their lives continued to get worse. Thirteen percent of Trump voters also voted for Obama, without which the contest wouldn’t have even been close. Those people aren’t racist or motivated by race.

There’s no dearth of valid criticism to level against the right, but painting the voters as one dimensional cartoon characters isn’t one of them.

I remember goons who did door to door outreach for Obama posting stories about white people literally saying "we're voting for the nig." People can be racist without recoiling from POCs like vampires faced with crosses, and without it being their sole decision-making factor.

DC is absolutely oversimplifying things, I'm just sayin'

Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Apr 4, 2023

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



DC if you have any interesting comparisons or observations stemming from being a foreigner watching all this from afar compared to your own system that is fine, but making broad declarations as to the fundamental nature of all of American voters when you dont live here or participate in our dumbass fake democracy is a doomed endeavor I'm going to once again ask you to stop. Direct that energy locally, or if you think a fascist rightward lurch is truly impossible there and the left is ascendant forever take that argument to FinnPol or whatever.

Blue Footed Booby posted:

I remember goons who did door to door outreach for Obama posting stories about white people literally saying "we're voting for the nig." People can be racist without recoiling from POCs like vampires faced with crosses, and without it being their sole decision-making factor.

TDD is right here, when people talk about the Dems losing the rust belt with the Third Way taking over and exporting those jobs to increase profit margins, this is what they're talking about. It was a slow enough process that people could pretend it wasn't happening but now it's complete and cannot be ignored. These people didnt vote for a white woman or white man when the Dems offered them either. How the Dems win them back is ultimately up to the Dems, who lost them in the first place and getting people to vote for them is their whole job.

Epic High Five fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Apr 4, 2023

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005

Epic High Five posted:

How the Dems win them back is ultimately up to the Dems, who lost them in the first place and getting people to vote for them is their whole job.

Georgia’s a pretty good model. Focus on the populist economic policies the left champions, downplay the social justice stuff, treat defund the police and reparations like they’re radioactive.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



TheDisreputableDog posted:

Georgia’s a pretty good model. Focus on the populist economic policies the left champions, downplay the social justice stuff, treat defund the police and reparations like they’re radioactive.

I'd argue that without a Trump this strategy is unlikely to be deployed widely as it's also a significant reduction in the scope of what they can promise or deliver, which has the potential to drive away as many people as just having the same positions as the GOP on whatever the conservative-leaning media decides voters should be most concerned about this cycle.

In my own opinion, I think the only thing that could really save the Dems are the left that they are demonizing making their votes strictly conditional so they either have to become a party with a coherent identity and core of beliefs, or they be a little more honest about things ala UK Labour and its purges and massive incompetence. IMHO they'd already be there if Bernie had won the nom either time.

I genuinely, deep down, do not believe that a party that has no problem with flexible beliefs on those topics would have any problem with Trump winning over a tepid SocDem. But it's all just a datapoint despite my feelings, and it's all lessons to be learned from. My actual hopes here are that my fellow travelers have actually learned that lesson for next time the begging bowl comes around.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Epic High Five posted:

DC if you have any interesting comparisons or observations stemming from being a foreigner watching all this from afar compared to your own system that is fine, but making broad declarations as to the fundamental nature of all of American voters when you dont live here or participate in our dumbass fake democracy is a doomed endeavor I'm going to once again ask you to stop. Direct that energy locally, or if you think a fascist rightward lurch is truly impossible there and the left is ascendant forever take that argument to FinnPol or whatever.

Uh, I can back anything I say about Republicans with actual evidence-based data and studies if they are requested. They are not requested.

For example:

TheDisreputableDog posted:

You are objectively, demonstrably wrong. White, blue-collar workers voted for Bill Clinton, and their lives continued to get worse. Thirteen percent of Trump voters also voted for Obama, without which the contest wouldn’t have even been close. Those people aren’t racist or motivated by race.

There’s no dearth of valid criticism to level against the right, but painting the voters as one dimensional cartoon characters isn’t one of them.

Why do you believe African-Americans to be the only minority group Republicans hate? Obama was anti-gay marriage and turned on that, anti-illegal immigrant, not a woman, etc. Why are you limiting this specifically to anti-African American racism? I said "minorities", that is a pretty wide swatch of people.

I am not objectively wrong until you prove that all those people were full on huge social progressives. Maybe the anti-black dichotomy just was not their cup of hatred?

It is far from the only one.

DarkCrawler posted:



Because I somehow expected that somethingawful.com is the last place one would have to elaborate on the numerous ways that the Republican Party and it’s supporters are awful, but ok.

Republicans are loving terrible and it is a great thing that these Republicans all of you know and love just can’t loving wait to prove me right every time they are asked, otherwise I might have a hard time proving their adherence to fascist ideals and policies en masse.

So obviously, the vast majority of Republicans either support Donald Trump, think Donald Trump himself is too controversial or too crass but his aims and politics are okay, and think that their political representatives should follow him.

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1279062

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/12/a-large-share-of-republicans-want-trump-to-remain-head-of-the-party-cnbc-survey.html

https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2021/new-marquette-law-poll-finds-majority-of-republicans-favor-a-trump-run-for-president-in-2024.php

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3810

They have abandoned recognition of democratic elections if they lose them, alongside with countless other anti-democratic aims, supported by the majority of the party:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/22274429/republicans-anti-democracy-13-charts

Voting rights are opposed by the majority of the party.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/04/22/republicans-and-democrats-move-further-apart-in-views-of-voting-access/

Immigration of really any kind is opposed by the majority of Republicans, with particularly vicious attitudes towards illegal immigrants. 84% want THE WALL.

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/republicans-and-democrats-different-worlds-immigration

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2B919J

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-views-on-immigration-are-shifting-even-further-to-the-right-under-biden/amp/

Oh boy, race relations. When a full 70% say that American culture and way of life has been worse since the loving 50’s, 62% think it is integral to American identity to be born in America, 53% believe racial diversity is a weakness, a third think increasing diversity is negative, 54% think there is no such thing as systemic racism and 80% think that race poses no barriers to anyone in society, I think you know where we’re going here. 87% oppose Black Lives Matter.

https://www.prri.org/research/competing-visions-of-america-an-evolving-identity-or-a-culture-under-attack/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/7974595002

https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Abortion, obviously. 63% want it to be illegal.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/246278/abortion-trends-party.aspx

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/05/06/about-six-in-ten-americans-say-abortion-should-be-legal-in-all-or-most-cases/

Gun control? 44% think the current situation is a-ok, only a third want stricter gun laws.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/24/poll-views-gun-laws-after-atlanta-boulder-show-even-deeper-divide/6963810002/

Vaccination? Only a rough half have vaccinations at all, and only a third are willing to take boosters.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/booster-partisan-split-analysis/index.html

Drugs? Probably not surprised that 59% of Republicans are against decriminalization.

https://www.cato.org/blog/poll-55-americans-favor-decriminalizing-drugs

Environment? Well, according to the vast majority of Republicans we are neither facing a climate emergency, and nearly half believe human activity has nothing to do with climate change.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.y...-185118987.html

LGBT rights? Lol 61% oppose the 2021 Equality act and think discriminating based on sexual orientation and gender identity is just great.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/new-poll-shows-americans-overwhelmingly-oppose-anti-transgender-laws

Religious freedom? You know aside from loving 68% believing that God has a specifically granted America a special role in history and 63% believing that being Christian is important to being American…do you need more on this topic? Because there is more, like 74% believing Islam is opposed to American values and way of life.

https://www.prri.org/research/competing-visions-of-america-an-evolving-identity-or-a-culture-under-attack/

Police brutality, well 79% of Republicans believe that police killings of African-Americans are isolated incidents, so you can probably divine the rest there

https://www.prri.org/research/competing-visions-of-america-an-evolving-identity-or-a-culture-under-attack/

Now you can find individual disagreeing in every case, but not a single loving Republican disagrees with most of those or finds ANY of them a deal breaker.

Furthermore, saying that 13% of Trump voters voted for Obama is in no way limited to the rural poor white blue collar voters:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-trump-democrat/2017/08/04/0d5d06bc-7920-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html

At no point did I claim there are no non-racist Republicans actually purely motivated by economic interest. It is just that after the Bush era it was pretty clear you needed a Democrat to secure faith in the markets amidst McCain appointing a proto-Trump as VP and his campaign imploding. No doubt some people voted for Obama because of that. Them not being racist specifically does not mean they are not some other form of bigot OR that they aren't amorally simply interested in cash.

If you want to stay in the topic of the discussion about the white rural poor, in your words "the only group the left is comfortable in punching down", limit your data to that. How many percent of the Obama-Trump voters were rural poor whites?

If there is a reason the above reply is not somehow according to rules or a valid line of questioning or does not provide evidence but is instead an unsupported "broad declaration" I would like to have some other justification for that besides "you are foreign".

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Apr 4, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Epic High Five posted:

In my own opinion, I think the only thing that could really save the Dems are the left that they are demonizing making their votes strictly conditional so they either have to become a party with a coherent identity and core of beliefs
I mean, what’s the opposite of the tragedy of the commons? Unless everybody goes at once you just end up with far right control. This is something that would not work under any conceivable circumstances. Even if it was theoretically possible to get that message from the left across in one disastrous election, there would be a strong bias among many Dem strategists to discount or ignore it. A bunch of their candidates in close and red districts would be pushing the same stuff they do now, or go further right, and then where is your coherent party identity?

And if it takes 3 or 4 cycles to get the message across - whoops, too late, everyone is disenfranchised.

The fact of the matter is that 30% of us are hardcore ideological right wing revanchists and 30% of us, at least, have terrible loss aversion that biases them to the status quo. As long as we value representative democracy at all, that means our government is going to suck at least a little bit. Like every government that ever existed.

And I suspect that our current distributions of conservative tendencies (on a neurological level) are pretty globally/historically typical as well, it’s just the ways they express themselves that are specific to our place and time. That is to say, i do not think there is a social force or social consensus that is going to stop a society from having some form of conservatives. Even in an ideal world we would have to somehow address their discontent, because there is a pretty good sense that a decent amount of people would absolutely hate an ideal world.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Apr 4, 2023

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005

DarkCrawler posted:

At no point did I claim there are no non-racist Republicans actually purely motivated by economic interest.

quote:

They are not looking for improvement in social support, job training, etc. or for any other solution until they are aware and certain that minorities are not provided access to it.

davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
"The Acquittal of Donald Trump by the Coward Juror Number 4."

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



DarkCrawler posted:

Uh, I can back anything I say about Republicans with actual evidence-based data and studies if they are requested. They are not requested.

For example:

Why do you believe racism to be the only minority group Republicans hate? Obama was anti-gay marriage and turned on that, anti-illegal immigrant, not a woman, etc. Why are you limiting this specifically to anti-African American racism?

I am not objectively wrong until you prove that all those people were full on huge social progressives. Maybe the anti-black dichotomy just was not their cup of hatred?

It is far from the only one.

Furthermore, saying that 13% of Trump voters voted for Obama is in no way limited to the rural poor white blue collar voters:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-trump-democrat/2017/08/04/0d5d06bc-7920-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html

At no point did I claim there are no non-racist Republicans actually purely motivated by economic interest. It is just that after the Bush era it was pretty clear you needed a Democrat to secure faith in the markets amidst McCain appointing a proto-Trump as VP. No doubt some people voted for Obama because of that. Them not being racist specifically does not mean they are not some other form of bigot OR that they aren't amorally simply interested in cash.

If you want to limit the discussion to the rural poor, in your words "the only group the left is comfortable in punching down", limit your data to that. How many percentage of the Obama-Trump voters were rural poor whites?

If there is a reason the above reply is not somehow according to rules or a valid line of questioning or does not provide evidence but is instead an unsupported "broad declaration" I would like to have some other justification for that besides "you are foreign".

That's fine, all I ask is that people here engage with American topics in an American context, and I recognize that our seat at the imperial core makes this a lot trickier a proposition than in any of our forums' proper regional threads. You shouldn't wait for someone to demand you support your own arguments, you should do it when you make them.

With my mod hat on, I'm also saying that disown your granny stuff is your own personal ideology and I would like to avoid this thread once again derailing into a fight about the right-leaning and fascist parties of Finland and that not every discussion that includes Republicans at all is appropriate for it, especially this one which is fundamentally about bigger stuff than what any individual idiot thinks or wants. We get that you really, really hate Republicans and trust me, as someone who actually lives under them, I get it too, but class issues are a messy nest here and most of the people participating already don't vote for or support them.

Mellow Seas posted:

I mean, what’s the opposite of the tragedy of the commons? Unless everybody goes at once you just end up with far right control. This is something that would not work under any conceivable circumstances. Even if it was theoretically possible to get that message from the left across in one disastrous election, there would be a strong bias among many Dem strategists to discount or ignore it. A bunch of their candidates in close and red districts would be pushing the same stuff they do now, or go further right, and then where is your coherent party identity?

The fact of the matter is that 30% of us are hardcore ideological right wing revanchists and 30% of us, at least, have terrible loss aversion that biases them to the status quo. As long as we value representative democracy at all, that means our government is going to suck at least a little bit. Like every government that ever existed. And I suspect that our current distributions of conservative tendencies are pretty globally/historically typical as well, it’s just the ways they express themselves that are specific to our place and time.

Far right control is already an inevitability, the system itself is designed to ensure that. Fundamentally, I believe that some degree of revolution is going to be required but that we as a culture are not capable of it, and since a cultural change would also require revolutionary conditions it's more the same. My efforts have been focused locally for this reason, but at the national level this is what I think would work because the march rightward by the center has been dependent upon the left still voting for them despite the declarations of hatred and total marginalization within the structure of the party, and the center moving right is a forfeit win for the right regardless of whatever else happens.

It's not terribly new ground, I don't have anything new to say on the subject that hasn't been said here before.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Epic High Five posted:

Far right control is already an inevitability, the system itself is designed to ensure that. Fundamentally, I believe that some degree of revolution is going to be required but that we as a culture are not capable of it, and since a cultural change would also require revolutionary conditions it's more the same.
The problem is that there is no revolution that is going to eliminate the fact that some percentage of people seem to be, for the lack of a better term, immutably pro-suffering. (A fictional archetype is Bernard Marx from BNW) It is, if not hard-coded into human societies, something we have never had any success in addressing. With all due respect to the CIA I think that’s a big reason why the world has had a lot more socialist revolutions than it has active and thriving socialist paradises.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Apr 4, 2023

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Mellow Seas posted:

The problem is that there is no revolution that is going to eliminate the fact that some percentage of people seem to be, for the lack of a better term, immutably pro-suffering. It is, if not hard-coded into human societies, something we have never had any success in addressing. With all due respect to the CIA I think that’s a big reason why the world has had a lot more socialist revolutions than it has active and thriving socialist paradises.

If it were true there wouldn't be a CIA to give due respect to. Even coups and color revolutions require massive outside support to keep going.

People aren't isolated islands of pure thought and reason, with enough media and institutional control they'll believe what they obviously have to to get along day to day, and with enough of that and they will believe it genuinely, and revolutionary conditions aren't famously bereft of enemies to focus on because indeed enemies there shall be. Why do you think the right is so obsessed with controlling all messaging and is taking over every media outlet they possibly can?

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
The Soviet Union managed to collapse into totalitarianism before the OSS existed or before the US even had the desire or capability to perform their Cold War interventions…. Can’t really blame the US for that.

E: the right wing is also totally failing to creating a monoculture based on their values, because their political angle doesn’t work on a majority of people. They’re just trying to leverage the ones that it does work on to eliminate democratic (small d) control of our government.

How would a socialist regime fare any better in achieving a universal or near-universal set of values, especially if it maintained any semblance of freedom of expression?

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Apr 4, 2023

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

Epic High Five posted:

If it were true there wouldn't be a CIA to give due respect to. Even coups and color revolutions require massive outside support to keep going.

People aren't isolated islands of pure thought and reason, with enough media and institutional control they'll believe what they obviously have to to get along day to day, and with enough of that and they will believe it genuinely, and revolutionary conditions aren't famously bereft of enemies to focus on because indeed enemies there shall be. Why do you think the right is so obsessed with controlling all messaging and is taking over every media outlet they possibly can?

This sort of sounds a lot like how Stockholm Syndrome works too. Obviously it's considered to be maladaptive in a specific context but the basic functioning seems right

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

davecrazy posted:

"The Acquittal of Donald Trump by the Coward Juror Number 4."

You could make a pretty penny on the wingnut welfare circuit as the juror who bravely declared no consequences for Presidents. I mean, I'd have to at least consider it for the money. My existent conscience, and the pure joy of getting to vote GUILTY on ol' Donny, would obviously outweigh any such minor temptations. However, there's enough silver pieces there to at least cross your mind.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Harold Fjord posted:

This sort of sounds a lot like how Stockholm Syndrome works too. Obviously it's considered to be maladaptive in a specific context but the basic functioning seems right

Stockholm Syndrome is, as I understand it, not exactly an uncontroversial theory. It's just basic psychology, people will come to believe the prevailing norms they're immersed in. We're an adaptable, social species and this fact is being constantly used and abused to shape our ideologies and forms the basis of a lot of game design and all marketing to boot.

Mellow Seas posted:

The Soviet Union managed to collapse into totalitarianism before the OSS existed or before the US even had the desire or capability to perform their Cold War interventions…. Can’t really blame the US for that.

E: the right wing is also totally failing to creating a monoculture based on their values, because their political angle doesn’t work on a majority of people. They’re just trying to leverage the ones that it does work on to eliminate democratic (small d) control of our government.

How would a socialist regime fare any better in achieving a universal or near-universal set of values, especially if it maintained any semblance of freedom of expression?

And when the small vanguard succeeds it will bring a lot of the squishy middle along with them. Combine that with the runup most likely being the squishy middle doing purges of the left to show willing and you've got everybody. If you think all the interventions and stuff started AFTER the USSR fell that's just an incorrect understanding of history, as they were a well-established duty of intelligence agencies even before Operation Paperclip made them all official national policy.

How will a socialist government do that when capitalist regimes failed to? Hard to say, especially since it's hinging on a nebulously defined premise here that we only even arguably have at all and only believe we do because of the aforementioned propaganda campaigns. It's just as likely to be as simple as dissent is tolerated so long as it's not a threat, and things are still good enough on average that it is rarely actually a threat. Cuba revised their Constitution to protect LGBT rights and personhood, are we capable of nearly as much?

Maybe I'm just in an especially grim mood today.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Automata 10 Pack posted:

https://twitter.com/tammybaldwinner/status/1642951833785122816?s=46&t=xjoX4EYhjjJHLNhbe-XLBA
The result of the midterms was the Dem Gov winning but the Dem Senator losing.

M&M is where all the cool communists are. WOW is where all the hitlers are.

Still favoring Janet but I’m nervous tbh.

The drop in early voting for Madison & Milwaukee and the corresponding spike from WOW vs the 2023 primary seems really bad!

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Epic High Five posted:

Far right control is already an inevitability, the system itself is designed to ensure that.

Mellow Seas posted:

The problem is that there is no revolution that is going to eliminate the fact that some percentage of people seem to be, for the lack of a better term, immutably pro-suffering.

I think these are some pretty wild assertions to throw out there without any further specifics. Not only are they rather inflammatory and extreme, but they're also so vague that it's difficult to read them as specific claims rather than vague ideological throwaways.

And personally, I think they're both copouts. The American left is far too eager to find anyone or anything else to pin the blame on for its own weakness. Whether it's claiming that the system is somehow rigged in favor of fascism, or insisting that voters are too "pro-suffering" to support leftism, or claiming that voters are simply voting against their own interests...it all seems to boil down simply declaring leftism to be functionally impossible to attain (whether in America or worldwide), and absolving the left of its responsibility to convince other people to support leftist policies.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Epic High Five posted:

Stockholm Syndrome is, as I understand it, not exactly an uncontroversial theory. It's just basic psychology, people will come to believe the prevailing norms they're immersed in. We're an adaptable, social species and this fact is being constantly used and abused to shape our ideologies and forms the basis of a lot of game design and all marketing to boot.

And when the small vanguard succeeds it will bring a lot of the squishy middle along with them. Combine that with the runup most likely being the squishy middle doing purges of the left to show willing and you've got everybody. If you think all the interventions and stuff started AFTER the USSR fell that's just an incorrect understanding of history, as they were a well-established duty of intelligence agencies even before Operation Paperclip made them all official national policy.

How will a socialist government do that when capitalist regimes failed to? Hard to say, especially since it's hinging on a nebulously defined premise here that we only even arguably have at all and only believe we do because of the aforementioned propaganda campaigns. It's just as likely to be as simple as dissent is tolerated so long as it's not a threat, and things are still good enough on average that it is rarely actually a threat. Cuba revised their Constitution to protect LGBT rights and personhood, are we capable of nearly as much?

Maybe I'm just in an especially grim mood today.
The Soviet Union reverted to enforced Russification and homophobia before Lenin was cold. The Freikorps didn’t do that, the westerners didn’t do that, the whites didn’t do that, homophobic and xenophobic Russians did.

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

The Soviet Union reverted to enforced Russification and homophobia before Lenin was cold. The Freikorps didn’t do that, the westerners didn’t do that, the whites didn’t do that, homophobic and xenophobic Russians did.

By your framing, this could be blamed on Stalin

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

The drop in early voting for Madison & Milwaukee and the corresponding spike from WOW vs the 2023 primary seems really bad!

The two Democratic candidates combined for 54% in the primary

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Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Main Paineframe posted:

I think these are some pretty wild assertions to throw out there without any further specifics. Not only are they rather inflammatory and extreme, but they're also so vague that it's difficult to read them as specific claims rather than vague ideological throwaways.

And personally, I think they're both copouts. The American left is far too eager to find anyone or anything else to pin the blame on for its own weakness. Whether it's claiming that the system is somehow rigged in favor of fascism, or insisting that voters are too "pro-suffering" to support leftism, or claiming that voters are simply voting against their own interests...it all seems to boil down simply declaring leftism to be functionally impossible to attain (whether in America or worldwide), and absolving the left of its responsibility to convince other people to support leftist policies.

I'm aware of the counter-arguments but my beliefs are my own and are as I presented regardless. Nationally, we will be mitigating harm while on the back foot until the harm is too great and then there will be a drop in living conditions sufficient for a great regression in human life and liberty, probably oil approaching 1.0 EROI, the same pattern as has become established as a feature of the liberal democratic mode elsewhere. Like I said, I'm focusing locally so not giving up to nihilism or whatever. I don't speak for the left, but for the most part they're totally bought in on voting blue so a lot of the complaining about them is just projecting failures of the party. Nobody gives a poo poo about the tiny fringe of people who are dubious as to the possibilities of enriching landlords to stop landlords from landlording where I'm at.

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

The Soviet Union reverted to enforced Russification and homophobia before Lenin was cold. The Freikorps didn’t do that, the westerners didn’t do that, the whites didn’t do that, homophobic and xenophobic Russians did.

Which part of my post is this in response to? We just struck down Roe and half the country is going hog wild implementing whatever reactionary stuff they can ram through. What's hundred year old revolutions on the other side of the world have to do with that? It's a bipartisan fact that we are not a socialist nation in any way, shape, or form and that socialists are in fact the worst people on Earth, check House Concurrent Resolution 9 for confirmation on this. We are the counter-argument to those failures of the past by our own proclamation, what's the mirror tell us? Why gloss over the actual example I included?

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