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fatherboxx)
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The most trivial Crimea takeover, from a combat perspective, might’ve been 2014.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:43
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Svaha posted:Not much fanfare? Some of the bloodiest battles of wwII happened there. You should perhaps read a bit into it. The peninsula fell to the Germans very quickly - aside from Kerch and Sevastopol which ended up in protracted urban sieges, eventually leading to the capture of 65,000 Soviet troops while the main German advance moved on. The defenders lost substantially more than the attackers. The Russians retook it (including the cities) in a month. 85,000 casualties includes wounded and sick - and again the defenders took heavier losses than the attackers and just barely avoided losing a shitload more in a close evacuation. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 02:50
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Warbadger posted:Historically Crimea fell to both the German and Soviet armies without much fanfare. A small peninsula is a lovely place to defend if the other guy controls access to the mainland. My understanding is that the Soviet Union defended Crimea like madmen and it took the Germans a lot of time and effort to eventually take it. When the Soviets finally retook it, the Germans were pretty softened up due to defeats elsewhere. As others pointed out, it still took a lot of fighting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_campaign The Germans had to besiege Sevastapol for 250 days. There's a reason why it was one of the first designated Hero Cities. And wouldn't one of the main points of retaking the Crimea be retaking Sevastopol? Either way, I don't think that's a war Ukraine has the equipment to fight. mlmp08 posted:The most trivial Crimea takeover, from a combat perspective, might’ve been 2014. and that involved defections from certain Ukrainian senior military leaders, right? Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 02:50
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Eric Cantonese posted:Either way, I don't think that's a war Ukraine has the equipment to fight. Neither does Russia.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:52
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Warbadger posted:Historically Crimea fell to both the German and Soviet armies without much fanfare. A small peninsula is a lovely place to defend if the other guy controls access to the mainland. The Siege of Sevastopol held up German units for 8 months. It was quite a bit of fanfare at the time.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:57
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Ynglaur posted:The Siege of Sevastopol held up German units for 8 months. It was quite a bit of fanfare at the time. The Germans continued Eastward after bottling up the Soviet army in Sevastopol, leaving enough behind to successfully destroy the trapped army. In the end, despite the propaganda value of the holdout, they managed to lose far more troops than the attacking Germans by a factor of 3-4 for the simple reason that they had no means to withdraw or, eventually, maintain the siege because they were trapped in a pocket on a loving peninsula. The Germans didn't even bother to try for a siege, because at that point the fortifications were rubble, they knew they'd be hosed if they tried anyways, and instead got a big chunk of their army dead covering a desperate evacuation because they were trapped in a pocket on a loving peninsula. In both cases the attempt ended poorly for the defenders, and wasn't particularly outstanding compared to what was going on all along the front it was a small part of. Sevastopol was also a literal fortress at the time, with a gigantic amount of modern static fortifications and heavy naval and sea logistics component that was at least initially largely unopposed to support it. This is no longer true. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 03:02
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So how do you see it playing out this time, considering the considerable defenses the Russians have built up over the last 7 years, and Ukraine's complete lack of a navy? E: or let's be real here, an air force that can challenge what Russia has in Crimea. I'm concerned with the more immediate problem of how the Ukrainians get armor over the narrow corridor in the west or through the death swamp in the east without being blown to smithereens by an adversary that is fully prepared for those avenues of attack and has both air and naval superiority in that area. Warbadger posted:Neither does Russia. Svaha fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 05:39
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If/when Ukraine pushes to the Isthmus of Perekop and other cities along of the sea of Azov, it could be that the battle for Crimea would already be won. Though I think even at that point Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge would still be out of range of most Ukrainian ordnance, so I can see there being a political decision by the Russians not to abandon the peninsula. It will then be a very difficult decision for the Ukrainians to either risk pushing into Crimea or containing it, and that decision will probably be dictated on what is going on in other areas of the front. In regards to comparing the future coming battle of Crimea to past wars, currently neither side has those numbers in manpower and from what I know most of northern Crimea is open, flat, and wet. So holding fixed positions there will come at a price due to the amount of accurate long range firepower Ukraine can bring. However, if we believe what some other observers have said in that if Russia loses Crimea, then they lose the war. True or not, that is probably in the back of Putins head and I can see scenarios in which the Russians pile in men and material to make the peninsula effectively a poison frog for the Ukrainians.
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Apr 6, 2023 06:19
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Svaha posted:So how do you see it playing out this time, considering the considerable defenses the Russians have built up over the last 7 years, and Ukraine's complete lack of a navy? They haven't built significant defenses over the past 7 years (and are still working on the two half-assed trench lines they threw up recently), Ukraine hasn't needed a navy to deny the Black Sea Fleet from playing any significant combat role (or existing above the water) near the front lines, and the Ukrainians still appear capable of dealing with the entire Russian air force which continues to play a minimal role in the conflict. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 06:25
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Fwiw Russian navy has already relocated its submarines out of Sevastopol, so there is probably little faith in their ability to keep it operational in the near future. Or at least the navy doesn't trust the army enough. This doesn't mean that the battle for Crimea would be easy, if Sevastopol becomes a Mariupol like battle then that would be awful. We will have to wait for the Ukrainian offensive to start to really tell what can be expected. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 07:12 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 07:09
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Svaha posted:Not much fanfare? Some of the bloodiest battles of wwII happened there. At the WW2 Eastern Front scale that's basically a skirmish
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Apr 6, 2023 07:57
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Svaha posted:Not much fanfare? Some of the bloodiest battles of wwII happened there. Crazy to think this was considered to be a protracted siege back in the day whereas the Russians have been trying to crack open Bakhmut for over a year now and failing
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Apr 6, 2023 08:56
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Apr 6, 2023 09:03
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Folks "Ukrainians at the isthmus of crimea" is a scenario where Ukraine broke the front and took back most of the south with a significant destruction of russian defenses. The political and military implications of that are broad, it's questionable if any mobiks would be willing to stay in Crimea at that point to get hosed up further with no supplies and die instead of getting the gently caress out while the bridge is still there
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Apr 6, 2023 09:16
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Thanks for all the Clancychat.
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Apr 6, 2023 09:28
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Re: the kerch bridge - why haven't we given Ukraine some missiles that can reach it?
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Apr 6, 2023 09:48
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VostokProgram posted:Re: the kerch bridge - why haven't we given Ukraine some missiles that can reach it? The stuff we have for that is mainly delivered by plane.
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Apr 6, 2023 09:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The stuff we have for that is mainly delivered by plane. Do you mean shipped into Ukraine for use by a plane or delivered from a plane directly into a bridge
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Apr 6, 2023 12:24
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Vaginaface posted:Do you mean shipped into Ukraine for use by a plane or delivered from a plane directly into a bridge Presumably the payload requirements for, like, collapsing a bridge are too heavy for your typical long range ground missile and it's better to just have it go down
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Apr 6, 2023 12:31
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The big cruise missiles for this purpose in NATO inventories (see KEPD 350) are launched by aircraft. Ukraine does not have the launch platforms for them. The problem with ground-launched cruise missiles is that they have to expend a lot of energy to get into the air, while aircraft can fly to a release point and the missile doesn't have to get up to speed. So to enable Ukraine to strike deep, it would first have to receive aircraft, and then modern missiles compatible with those aircraft. Beyond the technical problems it seems there is scarce political will to ship those aircraft.
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Apr 6, 2023 12:37
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Antigravitas posted:The big cruise missiles for this purpose in NATO inventories (see KEPD 350) are launched by aircraft. Ukraine does not have the launch platforms for them. Same for Russia, when you hear about those air strikes on Ukraine cities, the bombs are launched from long range bombers, not ground units. Which is why anti-air and air superiority in general is so important in this war.
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Apr 6, 2023 12:57
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Antigravitas posted:So to enable Ukraine to strike deep, it would first have to receive aircraft, and then modern missiles compatible with those aircraft. Beyond the technical problems it seems there is scarce political will to ship those aircraft. There were rumours of UK giving Storm Shadows to UAF, with Su-24 as launch platforms. And Ukrainian jets successfully use HARM and JDAM from MiG-29s and Su-27s so putting Storm Shadows on Fencers isn't impossible. I'm not sure how likely it is, but it can be done.
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Apr 6, 2023 13:26
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Gervasius posted:There were rumours of UK giving Storm Shadows to UAF, with Su-24 as launch platforms. And Ukrainian jets successfully use HARM and JDAM from MiG-29s and Su-27s so putting Storm Shadows on Fencers isn't impossible. From what I understand, HARMs are using the missile-based radiation sensors and they have a simplistic control panel in the form of basically an ipad app. Not sure if the Storm Shadows have a similar workaround possible. Plus all this discounts the heavy Russian AA presence and ability to project. Though to kill Kerch, I bet the UAF would be more than willing to sacrifice a few airframes assuming the probability of success is high enough.
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Apr 6, 2023 19:08
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OAquinas posted:From what I understand, HARMs are using the missile-based radiation sensors and they have a simplistic control panel in the form of basically an ipad app. Not sure if the Storm Shadows have a similar workaround possible. Well to have a decent amount of success the UAF would need some sort of a EW platform which at least publicly they do not. Personally I'd still rather use a drone platform for an operation like that. You can replace equipment, it is a lot harder to replace trained manpower.
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Apr 6, 2023 21:18
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So is Macron's visit to China likely going to be another nothing burger on the conflict? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/world/europe/xi-macron-ukraine-russia.html If the best soundbite they can get is quote:Appeals for the protection of civilians. Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear war must not be fought. That's not saying much. Maybe China is still balancing the scales. But I have a feeling that like Macron's diplomatic attempts with Putin, the warm words will fade to nothing the moment he leaves.
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Apr 7, 2023 00:42
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Had a listen to some Sputnik today; they alternated between talking up France's role as a potential peacemaker and how The West had ceded its role as international statesman to China. So those are the competing narrative frames coming out of the agreement between Russia and China at the moment.
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Apr 7, 2023 00:50
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WarpedLichen posted:So is Macron's visit to China likely going to be another nothing burger on the conflict? Macron is still looking for the marvelous bit of one on one diplomacy that ends the war, that's really the story. He went to make a personal appeal to Xi and Xi gave him poo poo.
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Apr 7, 2023 00:58
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WarpedLichen posted:So is Macron's visit to China likely going to be another nothing burger on the conflict? My view is that everything Macron has said and done with respect to diplomacy on Ukraine has been a nothingburger. He has repeatedly acted like France can be a player in some sort of Great Power diplomacy play but they just aren't. Not to say that he shouldn't try, it's just not likely that his latest visit would materially alter the state of play.
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Apr 7, 2023 01:13
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Does Ukraine have enough experience in urban pacification to maintain military control of the Crimean population if they do an invasion? Actually taking Russian territory is going to be a new challenge
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Apr 7, 2023 01:15
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Nix Panicus posted:Does Ukraine have enough experience in urban pacification to maintain military control of the Crimean population if they do an invasion? Actually taking Russian territory is going to be a new challenge It's not Russian territory.
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Apr 7, 2023 01:17
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https://www.tomshardware.com/news/cisco-destroys-tens-of-millions-worth-of-equipment-in-russia Interesting short blurb about Cisco destroying a bunch of unsold electronics before exiting the Russian market. I wonder who they found to do that work?
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Apr 7, 2023 01:23
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Ynglaur posted:https://www.tomshardware.com/news/cisco-destroys-tens-of-millions-worth-of-equipment-in-russia Not sure what would the problem be.
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Apr 7, 2023 01:50
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Nix Panicus posted:Does Ukraine have enough experience in urban pacification to maintain military control of the Crimean population if they do an invasion? Actually taking Russian territory is going to be a new challenge Nix Panicus posted:When Russia invades the Crimea, they do it over a weekend with a handful of troopers and almost no casualties, civilian or otherwise You are a disgusting person. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 7, 2023 01:56
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Deteriorata posted:It's not Russian territory. Whatever you need to tell yourself. But the fact remains the Russians took Crimea in a week with no resistance and held it for nine years with no problems. Plus the older Crimeans will remember the time Ukraine couped their autonomous government and deposed their president and everyone will remember that Ukraine took its frustrations out on the civilian populace through withholding water. In general they appear to prefer Russian rule. Crimea isnt going to greet the invading Ukrainians as liberators, should they even get that far. Does Ukraine have any kind of plan for the long term occupation of Crimea? E: Or the Donbass region in general I guess. The Minsk agreements were shams I don't think anyone is going to fall for a third time, so 'autonomous zones' are likely a nonstarter Nix Panicus fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 01:59
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Nix Panicus posted:Whatever you need to tell yourself. But the fact remains the Russians took Crimea in a week with no resistance and held it for nine years with no problems. Plus the older Crimeans will remember the time Ukraine couped their autonomous government and deposed their president and everyone will remember that Ukraine took its frustrations out on the civilian populace through withholding water. In general they appear to prefer Russian rule. Crimea isnt going to great the invading Ukrainians as liberators, should they even get that far. I suggest using the time between now and your question becoming a matter of a current events thread to inform yourself of the particulars of this absence of resistance that you purport.
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Apr 7, 2023 02:01
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Proving the absence of something sounds difficult But sure, I guess Ukraine invading Crimea isn't current events, and Ukraine not having a plan for how it will govern an occupied region *before* trying to invade it is also not likely to ever be relevant. It does seem like a very American way to run a war though, which, yeah, checks out. I'll drop it.
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Apr 7, 2023 02:07
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Nix Panicus posted:Proving the absence of something sounds difficult To quote your own words, “whatever you need to tell yourself”. Since you are seemingly much more interested in posting “America bad”, than knowing basic facts about Ukraine, such as the establishment of the Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories 7 years ago, I can only suggest that your next posting voyage happens in a U.S. politics thread.
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Apr 7, 2023 02:15
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Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram In brief, it looks like the documents were modified to overstate Ukrainian casualties and understate Russian ones, as some sort of disinformation in favor of Russia (not necessarily from Russia). They're not specific plans and are a few weeks old, but the release is still likely to do significant damage. vvv happy to be corrected, I was just going off the nyt article. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 02:16
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Discendo Vox posted:Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation Pretty sure it was the other way around. The one with good numbers for Russia looks obviously shopped. Like, really obvious, and some Russian tg channels point it out, too. Not sure if it would be kosher to post them here to get thread's opinion. It's hard for me to imagine that the thing is real to begin with, though. The investigation, I imagine, is supposed to take place even if a leak is merely alleged. E: \/\/\/ Well, there you go. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 02:23
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The specific leak I think: https://twitter.com/andrrrwwwsha/status/1644142617238597634/photo/1 Aric Toler of Bellingcat claims it's a digit swap for casualties: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644139100407054336 Edit: I think my takeaway here is that Russian intel gathering capabilities are still pretty good (as has been stated before) WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 02:24
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