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Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Nix Panicus posted:

Whatever you need to tell yourself. But the fact remains the Russians took Crimea in a week with no resistance and held it for nine years with no problems. Plus the older Crimeans will remember the time Ukraine couped their autonomous government and deposed their president and everyone will remember that Ukraine took its frustrations out on the civilian populace through withholding water. In general they appear to prefer Russian rule. Crimea isnt going to greet the invading Ukrainians as liberators, should they even get that far.
There has been discontent with Russian rule for years in Crimea. Here is a video of Medvedev speaking to the voters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSq7oxM_fyo

This video is from 2016.

There is another funny video that I can't find at the moment it has a Russian lady protesting for Russia rule in the aftermath of the 2014 Crimean annexation then the exact same woman 6 years later protesting against Russian rule saying that they are "treated like dogs". Ukraine liberating Crimea is going to be a complicated mess for a lot of people but there isn't some overwhelming majority of people who <3 Russia.

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




The final warning on this derail.

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644148253426868224?cxt=HHwWgICzuYOImNEtAAAA

Plot thickens, agree that it would be extremely funny if a poster on 4chan posted it instead of Russian psyops.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:



Edit: I think my takeaway here is that Russian intel gathering capabilities are still pretty good (as has been stated before)

Unless someone was really dumb (see above), but either way the Pentagon & friends have some housecleaning to do ... I wonder how many people have access to this sort of thing? Like the label looks scary, but it's not like it's the names of spies in Kremlin or such...

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

WarpedLichen posted:

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644148253426868224?cxt=HHwWgICzuYOImNEtAAAA

Plot thickens, agree that it would be extremely funny if a poster on 4chan posted it instead of Russian psyops.

The spirit of War Thunder has spread to other corners of the internet :ohdear:

TasogareNoKagi
Jul 11, 2013

OddObserver posted:

Unless someone was really dumb (see above), but either way the Pentagon & friends have some housecleaning to do ... I wonder how many people have access to this sort of thing? Like the label looks scary, but it's not like it's the names of spies in Kremlin or such...

Short version is ... lots. I think the correct answer is someone printed out a document on a classified network so they could pull a War Thunder.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
The real question is why would someone risk leaking Top Secret/Classified documents that are just calculated losses and a pretty looking month old situation report. Could someone be so stupid? Probably. But there is nothing spicy enough in there to risk going to jail for. Maybe if 4chan dude livestreams the FBI knocking down his doors we will know the true answer.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Dick Ripple posted:

The real question is why would someone risk leaking Top Secret/Classified documents that are just calculated losses and a pretty looking month old situation report. Could someone be so stupid? Probably. But there is nothing spicy enough in there to risk going to jail for. Maybe if 4chan dude livestreams the FBI knocking down his doors we will know the true answer.

There is more than that... Another one seems to list what units are receiving what equipment and when.
(And there is also a mud map/calendar...). Both are pages seem to just be "secret", which seems odd in two different ways.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Nix Panicus posted:

Whatever you need to tell yourself. But the fact remains the Russians took Crimea in a week with no resistance and held it for nine years with no problems. Plus the older Crimeans will remember the time Ukraine couped their autonomous government and deposed their president and everyone will remember that Ukraine took its frustrations out on the civilian populace through withholding water. In general they appear to prefer Russian rule. Crimea isnt going to greet the invading Ukrainians as liberators, should they even get that far.

Does Ukraine have any kind of plan for the long term occupation of Crimea?

E: Or the Donbass region in general I guess. The Minsk agreements were shams I don't think anyone is going to fall for a third time, so 'autonomous zones' are likely a nonstarter

Some hard truths that are consistently opposite to reality getting dropped by the "russia is never going to invade anybody also america did 9/11" guy

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


OddObserver posted:

There is more than that... Another one seems to list what units are receiving what equipment and when.
(And there is also a mud map/calendar...). Both are pages seem to just be "secret", which seems odd in two different ways.

The equipment listing and the related training periods for each would seem to be the real intelligence bomb, if true (which is the big question) they show an undermanned and undertrained counter-offensive force for what they're being asked to do.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

How do we know these are genuine?

Ukraine's counteroffensive capability might well be understrength, but it seems to me that leaking false intel to your enemy that underestimates Ukraine's counteroffensive would be a good play.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Keisari posted:

How do we know these are genuine?

Ukraine's counteroffensive capability might well be understrength, but it seems to me that leaking false intel to your enemy that underestimates Ukraine's counteroffensive would be a good play.

There's no robust way for us to know what we can or should be making out of this, currently. The earliest confirmation that a real leak happened will be when the Pentagon takes someone to court over this incident. At that point, I feel, you could start reading it a bit less defensively if it's still relevant. Ideally, the version without a number swap less competent than what I remember some friends back in 9th grade doing to create greyscale photo “copies” of their passports in Microsoft Paint, to try to buy cigarettes with them.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

OddObserver posted:

There is more than that... Another one seems to list what units are receiving what equipment and when.
(And there is also a mud map/calendar...). Both are pages seem to just be "secret", which seems odd in two different ways.

If a piece of information is included in a Secret report and is held on a Secret network, it becomes classified as Secret until it's re-vetted and released onto less secure networks.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
So it was secret information that was posted to 4 chan to win an argument and then someone else took the casualties figures and swapped them around.


So someone with secret or top secret access is posting on 4chan.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
there are people with clearances posting everywhere. a ton of people have clearances.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
Having a security clearance doesn’t mean you get access to ftp.nsa.gov, you still need access through a job. It just means people can share relevant documents with you.

Though there are a ton of people working in various departments and companies. I’m honestly surprised secret information doesn’t leak more often.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Comstar posted:

So someone with secret or top secret access is posting on 4chan.

Secret is now the 'baseline' security clearance for anyone in the Australian military, who use the same classification structure as the US and is even included in that leak (FVEY). It's not as sensitive as it might seem on first guess.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
It's not one or two times that people with security clearances have forgotten their government laptop in a cab and with smartphones it's even more likely. There's many routes that it could have happened without being an intentional leak (whatever the motive) because people have super powers when it comes to information security idiotry.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Boris Galerkin posted:

Having a security clearance doesn’t mean you get access to ftp.nsa.gov, you still need access through a job. It just means people can share relevant documents with you.

Though there are a ton of people working in various departments and companies. I’m honestly surprised secret information doesn’t leak more often.

It is the one area that joins the twin powers of likelihood of getting caught with awesome consequences for getting caught. No-one likes a snitch so while people might turn the other cheek while you pinch government biro's from the desk and make a mental note not to let you in their house, they will prosecute with great vengeance and furious anger if you out yourself as someone that might share a secret. It's not about whether you might damage the government's standing/interests, it is that you can't be trusted not to damage the situation/interests of those individuals around you by letting out a truth.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Electric Wrigglies posted:

It is the one area that joins the twin powers of likelihood of getting caught with awesome consequences for getting caught. No-one likes a snitch so while people might turn the other cheek while you pinch government biro's from the desk and make a mental note not to let you in their house, they will prosecute with great vengeance and furious anger if you out yourself as someone that might share a secret. It's not about whether you might damage the government's standing/interests, it is that you can't be trusted not to damage the situation/interests of those individuals around you by letting out a truth.

Yea the consequences of spillage can be brutal, but it also depends on what the assessed intent was. If you do a minor spillage and report it, the consequences will likely be less than you not saying anything and someone finding out about it after the fact. Hiding spillage is more likely to trip the “who the gently caress are you talking to about it” response, but if you self-report things will probably be better for you.

Either way, information remains classified until officially declassified. Public knowledge/dissemination of the data is outright irrelevant.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Comstar posted:

So it was secret information that was posted to 4 chan to win an argument and then someone else took the casualties figures and swapped them around.

21st century warfare is remarkable stupid at times.

fez_machine
Nov 27, 2004

Moon Slayer posted:

21st century warfare is remarkable stupid at times.

Apparently the true source was even more embarrassing than 4chan and included many documents

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644323072441286657
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644329557174939655

Wibla
Feb 16, 2011

fez_machine posted:

Apparently the true source was even more embarrassing than 4chan and included many documents

So where on SA did it get posted? :allears:

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

fez_machine posted:

Apparently the true source was even more embarrassing than 4chan and included many documents

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644323072441286657
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644329557174939655

Even Pornhub would be less embarrassing than 4Chan, though the context would be weirder.

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.
The answer is and always will be War Thunder forums.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
TruthSocial, perhaps?

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

farmersonly.com

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Paradox forums?

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Christian mingle.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Thinking about it more, yeah it's dumb and silly as all hell but at the end of the day is it any dumber and sillier than "oops I dropped a copy of all of our troop movements right where the enemy army is going to set up camp" or "we put some fake orders on a dead body and floated it over to the enemy and they actually believed it lol"?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013





People are talking something about some hotel booklet (I'm just enjoying my Easter, thank you), and so I think the comedy option here is like someone taking a file of Pentagon stuff to a random resort in Turkey or whatever?

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Wibla posted:

So where on SA did it get posted? :allears:

GBS Ukraine thread moments before it got closed the last time.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
Twitter shows one slide with NATO SOF numbers and US pax (personnel) numbers in Ukraine. I'm not particularly surprised, though I would expect those people to mostly doing training and maybe logistics just across the Polish or Romanian borders.

I truly pity intelligence analysts in today's world where a highschooler with an image editor could make plausible edits to actual intelligence. Getting to the source--the actual provenance of an intel leak--is probably causing people to age early.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Ynglaur posted:

Twitter shows one slide with NATO SOF numbers and US pax (personnel) numbers in Ukraine. I'm not particularly surprised, though I would expect those people to mostly doing training and maybe logistics just across the Polish or Romanian borders.

I truly pity intelligence analysts in today's world where a highschooler with an image editor could make plausible edits to actual intelligence. Getting to the source--the actual provenance of an intel leak--is probably causing people to age early.

those sort of printed documents often have hidden information that provides information on where they were printed from. that busted Reality Winner, when the intercept emailed copies of the documents she leaked to the government for comment, and the government's comment was basically "aha, this was printed from printer x at time yy:yy:yy, let's pull up who printed there and then...thanks guys, we'll go pick up reality winner and stick her in jail"

my guess is something similar is going to happen here

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Don't know who this is, but text seems vaguely consistent with my attempts of reading the Polish text with my poor Ukrainian:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1644364129019260929

... at any rate, I wish something like this were done for production a year ago....

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

OddObserver posted:

Don't know who this is, but text seems vaguely consistent with my attempts of reading the Polish text with my poor Ukrainian:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1644364129019260929

... at any rate, I wish something like this were done for production a year ago....

basically what it says

here's the english press release

https://grupapgz.pl/en/bumar-labedy-and-ukroboronprom-jointly-established-technical-center-for-repair-of-t-64/

    Bumar Labedy and Ukroboronprom jointly established technical center for repair of T-64. Newly created capabilities are based on production premises of BL. Accordingly, the agreement stipulates that Ukrainian T-64 tanks will be serviced and restored at factories in Gliwice. The choice of Bumar-Łabędy as the partner of this contract results from its extensive experience in servicing and modernizing tanks of the T family, including the T-72 and PT-91.

    The agreement with UKROBRONPROM provides for cooperation in the field of repairs, overhauls, assembly, production and development of the supply chain of T-64 tanks along with other elements of the technological process. In the long term, the plan is to extend cooperation to the service of T-72 and PT-91 tanks, transferred by Poland to the Ukrainian side. The possibility of joint maintenance with Ukroboronprom of tanks of the Leopard 2 family, transferred to Ukraine by the international armored coalition, is also being considered.


golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Just Another Lurker posted:

Even Pornhub would be less embarrassing than 4Chan, though the context would be weirder.

It turns out the correct answer was "Minecraft Map Discord Channel".

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


lol

quote:

here, have some leaked documents

extra lol if this is real:

WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Apr 7, 2023

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

golden bubble posted:

It turns out the correct answer was "Minecraft Map Discord Channel".

Here's the reference tweet. lol and lmao.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644375234433122305

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Thread name contest is open until Latvian midnight, themed for this farce.

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