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Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I checked to see if Medveded's Twitter rant was posted here, but I didn't see it.

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1644669039095037953

WHY WILL UKRAINE DISAPPEAR? BECAUSE NOBODY NEEDS IT

I never expected to see publicly declared genocide on a social media platform. Dima rants that nobody in the world needs Ukraine, including Ukraine, and the sooner it can be wiped off the face of the Earth, the better everyone else will be. I would like to know what inspired him to rant like that, other than the bottle permanently attached to his hand.

There ought to be a reverse thread unroll app for walls of text like this. How am I suppose to read a wall of text like this without it being broken down into bite sized chunks?

e: Bad snipe so here's some more discussion:

from the tweet posted:

6. Finally, its own citizens don’t need the Nazi-headed Ukraine. That’s why out of 45 million people there’re only some 20 million remaining.

Gee I can't think of any reason whatsoever why why "only some 20 million [remain]" in Ukraine.

Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Apr 8, 2023

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Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain?

TearsOfPirates
Jun 11, 2016

Stultior stulto fuisti, qui tabellis crederes! - Idiot of idiots, to trust what is written!

Charliegrs posted:

Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain?

I'm pretty sure that the war in Ukraine pretty much let his inner handler let go.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Charliegrs posted:

Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain?

I feel like when he was president he was ... probably something of an employee

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Charliegrs posted:

Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain?

He was broadly considered a modern technocrat at the time, even if no one had any illusions about the identity of the real president at the time.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Kavros posted:

I feel like when he was president he was ... probably something of an employee

Would you say... servant of people Putin

I think of him more as an influencer or hype man these days. Or court jester. Kind of like Zhirinovsky was back in the good days. Actually I had to remind myself that Zhiri has been dead for a whole year and two days!

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Nenonen posted:

Would you say... servant of people Putin

I think of him more as an influencer or hype man these days. Or court jester. Kind of like Zhirinovsky was back in the good days. Actually I had to remind myself that Zhiri has been dead for a whole year and two days!

Rejoice! Everyone will soon be able to bask in his wisdom yet again thanks to the miracle of AI.

https://cybernews.com/news/russia-zhirinovsky-ai-chatbot/

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.ft.com/content/bdd8c518-bf10-4c9c-b53b-bfbe512e2e92

A UK-registered company has been caught shipping like $1bn worth of sanctioned semiconductors and high-tech electronics to Russia since February 2022, with their business “suddenly” booming in 2022. Going to be a good test of the UK actually putting its money where its mouth is.
It's currently stupidy easy to register a company in the UK with no checks. So you get stuff like ten thousand Chinese firms registered at a random person's flat as a tax scam.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/07/cardiff-flat-owner-gets-tax-bills-for-11000-chinese-firms

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Kavros posted:

I feel like when he was president he was ... probably something of an employee

This is a strong paraphrase but in Barack Obama's book he talks about how he was meeting with Putin who was whining about the west yadda yadda and then the crux of their discussions (the reason why Obama was there) and how Russia would like it handled so and so on. Then he pauses and goes "But of course you'd have to run that by Medvedev." and Obama's inner monologue was something like "I think we both understood I wouldn't really need to do that."

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
Somebody had posted the In Moscow's Shadows podcast at the end of the previous thread and there's a very recent episode about Medvedev:

https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/12515871-in-moscow-s-shadows-94-what-do-you-do-with-a-problem-like-medvedev

The podcast has a nice double-edged sword for how much information it gives. I think I understand more what's going on, but now I'm risking climbing up that first big Dunning-Kruger hump of acting like an expert when I don't really know anything. At least for what little I've heard, cinci is consistent:


cinci zoo sniper posted:

I really think it's just this indeed, alcoholism fuelling his attempts to re-/build reputation with the hardliners in the Kremlin circles.

It really looked on the outside like he wanted to get out of things or ramp down but he himself apparently didn't, so he wound up in a mishmashed role as a deputy chair for the security council. The position had to be created, and it put him under some nasty bedfollows of some pretty violent people that his politics didn't track before. He could have been the chairman if Putin wanted him to be the chairman, so that says something too.

So all I can parse from it is that he didn't want to let go of whatever privileges he had but he wasn't enough of a Putin toady to be awarded better, so now he gets to run his mouth and see if he ever gets signal boosted (which would be absolutely insane given what he keeps saying). It gives me "Notice me, senpai!" vibes.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

NY Times has an in-depth summary of the stuff that leaked:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html

Some excerpts I found interesting:

quote:

The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself.

The documents lay bare the American assessment of a Ukrainian military that is also in dire straits. The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages of air defense munitions and discuss the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies.

The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. Intelligence collection is often difficult and sometimes wrong, but the trove of documents offers perhaps the most complete picture yet of the inner workings of the largest land war in Europe in decades.

quote:

Senior U.S. officials said an inquiry, launched Friday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, would try to move swiftly to determine the source of the leak. The officials acknowledged that the documents appear to be legitimate intelligence and operational briefs compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, using reports from the government’s intelligence community, but that at least one had been modified from the original at some later point.

quote:

The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way. For example, one entry, marked top secret, discusses the Russian General Staff’s plans to counter the tanks NATO countries were providing to Ukraine, including creating different “fire zones” and beginning training of Russian soldiers on the vulnerabilities of different allied tanks.

Another entry talks about an information campaign being planned by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence unit, in Africa trying to shape public opinion against the United States and “promote Russian foreign policy.”

The US also has some "signals intelligence" sources in the South Korean government gave them insight into government deliberations. Hacked phones? Bugs?

The Ol Spicy Keychain
Jan 17, 2013

I MEPHISTO MY OWN ASSHOLE

Moon Slayer posted:

NY Times has an in-depth summary of the stuff that leaked:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html

Some excerpts I found interesting:

The US also has some "signals intelligence" sources in the South Korean government gave them insight into government deliberations. Hacked phones? Bugs?

So a racist 4chan groyper is responsible for the most serious millitary leak in a long time. That seems pretty loving bad but sadly not all that surprising. I guess the question now is whether the leaker was only sharing all these documents on the groyper discord or if he also passed it on to russia.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
Do journalists get in trouble for looking at supposedly leaked secret documents

Charliegrs posted:

Was Medvedev such a whackjob when he was the "president" of Russia? Like I don't remember him saying anything particularly controversial at the time but maybe he did and it just flew under the radar. Did he go down the same pandemic isolation rabbit hole that Putin did and it broke his brain?

The worst thing he did was the Georgian war which was pretty bad, but he was coherent and fairly charismatic as a president, modern and willing to discuss ideas with the opposition, people were putting in a lot of hope that he would lead the country away from the growing repressiveness of Putin to a more democratic state after decent economic growth and stability were achieved. He did some independent actions trying to align with the West like not going against the Libya intervention and that turned him against the security wing and lead him to being replaced and then sidelined. He really went off the deep end in the last couple of years apparently not finding a place for himself without any competence to be useful for the regime

Burns
May 10, 2008

Sounds to me like someone really wants to speed run the Edward Snowden marathon.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Nelson Mandingo posted:

This is a strong paraphrase but in Barack Obama's book he talks about how he was meeting with Putin who was whining about the west yadda yadda and then the crux of their discussions (the reason why Obama was there) and how Russia would like it handled so and so on. Then he pauses and goes "But of course you'd have to run that by Medvedev." and Obama's inner monologue was something like "I think we both understood I wouldn't really need to do that."

I heard in a podcast recently about Medvedev that there was a joke leaked from intelligence cables that goes something like "Medvedev sat in his brand new car and was marveling at all the brand new controls and knobs when he noticed there wasn't a steering wheel. He turns to Putin and asks 'where's the steering wheel?' to which Putin pulls out a remote controller from his pocket and says 'I'll be steering.'"

e: I think it was from the aforementioned podcast listed a few posts up.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I checked to see if Medveded's Twitter rant was posted here, but I didn't see it.

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1644669039095037953

WHY WILL UKRAINE DISAPPEAR? BECAUSE NOBODY NEEDS IT

I never expected to see publicly declared genocide on a social media platform. Dima rants that nobody in the world needs Ukraine, including Ukraine, and the sooner it can be wiped off the face of the Earth, the better everyone else will be. I would like to know what inspired him to rant like that, other than the bottle permanently attached to his hand.

I have no idea why news corporations even take Medvedev seriously despite proving to be a joke other than he used to be president of Russia for a couple of years

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Willo567 posted:

I have no idea why news corporations even take Medvedev seriously despite proving to be a joke other than he used to be president of Russia for a couple of years

That's actually quite a few people like Girkin or even Solovyov where I don't really understand why their statements deserve coverage. But I guess it's really hard to cover the firehose of bullshit strategy without talking about them.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Girkin people mostly pay attention to because he complains a lot and is as talented at writing that sort of things as he is at warcriming.

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
My interpretation of Russians saying hosed up stuff is that they're just putting themselves on as literal of a marketplace of ideas as one can get, and nobody should care until it's clear somebody is buying it. The signs are that they get boosted in the media and real life.

So I would only be worried if Medvedev starts seeing a lot of good fortune or something. That's the reach of my Russiabrain right now since I was specifically looking that up last time Medvedev was saying bizarre stuff.

Edit: I don't want to be too dismissive about talking about him though because I still think it's strange he particularly went this way and I guess personal reasons are as good as any. He could just as well have gone for a moderate tone, but I guess I can see why his current station has him going rabid to fit in.

Rocko Bonaparte fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Apr 9, 2023

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
More discord info

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1644876019768217603

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

cinci zoo sniper posted:

He was broadly considered a modern technocrat at the time, even if no one had any illusions about the identity of the real president at the time.

He was a technocrat who didn't care about foreign policy, just domestic policy.

When he didn't bother to veto the intervention in Libya in the UN Putin flipped his lid and took back complete control.

The Ol Spicy Keychain
Jan 17, 2013

I MEPHISTO MY OWN ASSHOLE

Great writeup that summarizes everything so far. Whoever leaked these documents is turbo hosed as his discord buddies were already babbling to bellingcat and will no doubt fold immediately when the feds come knocking.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

WarpedLichen posted:

That's actually quite a few people like Girkin or even Solovyov where I don't really understand why their statements deserve coverage. But I guess it's really hard to cover the firehose of bullshit strategy without talking about them.

I can sort of understand Girkin because he took part in capturing Crimea for Russia, but Solovyov is just a dumb propagandist who says extreme poo poo even other propagandists wouldn't go as far, or at least keep it more subtle

Neorxenawang
Jun 9, 2003

Willo567 posted:

I can sort of understand Girkin because he took part in capturing Crimea for Russia, but Solovyov is just a dumb propagandist who says extreme poo poo even other propagandists wouldn't go as far, or at least keep it more subtle

Girkin also gives the impression of giving true insight into what's happening on the Russian side by being a true believer who complains about how badly they're doing. I don't know how accurate that impression actually is, but at least it's not the official line, which is transparently bullshit.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Charlz Guybon posted:

He was a technocrat who didn't care about foreign policy, just domestic policy.

watching Medvedev waltz down into the TV Rain offices to be so excited about the new internet-focused media company in F*ck This Job is so bizarre now

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Despite all his failings Medvedev is still in my Top 3 of Russian presidents.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Nenonen posted:

Despite all his failings Medvedev is still in my Top 3 of Russian presidents.

do Lvov and Kerensky count for this

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
I don't think the office of president even existed then, so no

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
do we get to count Yeltsin's stints as president of the RSFSR and Russian Federation as separate entities

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Who could have imagined this last year when the war began?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1644659476249686016

Athas
Aug 6, 2007

fuck that joker
I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent?

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Athas posted:

I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent?

They have pretty short range, (6-10 km, depending on rocket model) and make a huge fuckoff explosion if hit. These qualities make them a favourite target for hunter-killer drones.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Athas posted:

I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent?

They were shock artillery units, largely meant to conduct terror attacks on civilian centers, but they had a horribly short range for artillery: the TOS-1 had an effective range of 3km. For comparison, the man-portable Javelin guided anti-tank missile has a effective range of 4km.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Athas posted:

I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent?

They're still being used, and you get the occasional shots of them being shot or captured. It's just less frequent now with the more solid frontlines we have, making them better defended/less TikTok visible. Also, yeah, the wow factor has worn off on thermobaric artillery even for those just introduced to it, I feel.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Athas posted:

I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent?

They're still out there, just not being filmed as much I suppose. I think a lot of those videos were from Russian prop sources, and they might be keeping them more secret than before, kind of like how HIMARs videos are rare now too for opsec.

:nms: First post is just a picture of a TOS with a cope cage. Second post is TOS being used in Bakhmut, drone footage. No visible people.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1644806233767960577
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1643705278259503104

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Young Freud posted:

They were shock artillery units, largely meant to conduct terror attacks on civilian centers, but they had a horribly short range for artillery: the TOS-1 had an effective range of 3km. For comparison, the man-portable Javelin guided anti-tank missile has a effective range of 4km.

I mean they are perfectly suited to gently caress up targets in an urban environment, but no they aren't "largely made for terror attacks" they are made to gently caress up fortified positions or targets in openish area, which they can do pretty well if they can get shots off.

Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Apr 9, 2023

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/08/ukraine-ammunition-shortage-shells-ration/

An interesting Washington Post article about the ammo shortages faced by Ukraine:

Selected quotes that stood out to me:

quote:

Even amid a shortage, Ukraine is firing some 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, according to a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. Russia, which may also be running low, is firing more — by some estimates triple that amount.

quote:

To keep up with their adversary and still conserve ammunition, the Ukrainian military is now pickier in selecting targets, often prioritizing equipment over small groups of infantry. Precision is key because misses mean wasted shells. And in underground workshops across eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions.

quote:

In the meantime, the hunt for shells is occasionally perilous. In areas where Russian forces retreated, soldiers wade through mined fields and forest to look for abandoned ammunition. One such group, which was ferrying any shells to the 59th brigade, recently hit unexploded ordnance.

The 14 shells Spider’s platoon has left came from Russian stocks seized in the Kherson region in November. Spider said he didn’t know when he would get more.

quote:

The Ukrainians have also explored creative conservation tactics. In some cases, crews bring unexploded ordinances originally fired by the Russians to secret labs in eastern Ukraine, and the elements are carefully stripped away to create a new munition.

Volunteers and soldiers work with 3D printers to fashion small, relatively inexpensive munitions that can be dropped from drones. Bullets are deconstructed. The ball bearings from a Claymore mine are removed and then used in a different anti-personnel or antitank mine. At one of these sites, there are shrapnel holes in the ceiling — the result of an explosion that occurred during the refashioning process. Two people died.

Surprised that scavenging UXO is a viable method of ammo procurement.

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




WarpedLichen posted:

[Surprised that scavenging UXO is a viable method of ammo procurement.

Viable is doing a lot of work there comrade. Goddamn, that's simultaneously ingenious and stupid. The West needs to get ammo production upgraded ASAP.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Nice

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1645084524785590274

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Henrik Zetterberg
Dec 7, 2007

Is that like a Ukrainian cover of Warriors of the World by Manowar? If so, that’s loving awesome.

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