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Finger Prince posted:Fwiw, I think cruft is right about the supercharger network. In that regard, Tesla is essentially operating as an unregulated electric utility reseller, and they can charge whatever the market will bear. When I had my model 3 rental, it cost $18.50 to charge from 14% to 99%. At commercial rates, did I use anywhere near that cost of electricity? I doubt it. Multiply that by every Tesla that supercharges, and soon every EV (with an appropriate off-brand surcharge) that uses one, effectively in perpetuity, and suddenly how much money Tesla makes selling cars starts to pale in comparison. Now, Tesla charging must be compared to other fast charging pricing, not to the electricity spot price. Asking the grid to come up with 100+kW all of a sudden is not the same as turning on your coffee maker at home, and costs more.
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Apr 8, 2023 16:51
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I will say that a lot of leftist commentators rly don’t understand the auto industry at all, and they frequently point to poo poo like “Tesla recalls two million cars for faulty (dinglehopper)” and say poo poo like “if this were literally any other car company, their stock price would toilet/they would go bankrupt/people would be out for blood/etc“ and it’s like lmao no, not in the slightest, companies are recalling millions of their cars for dangerous, catastrophic poo poo all the time and posting record Ws, consumers literally do not care about recalls and never have
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Apr 8, 2023 16:54
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pun pundit posted:Now, Tesla charging must be compared to other fast charging pricing, not to the electricity spot price. Asking the grid to come up with 100+kW all of a sudden is not the same as turning on your coffee maker at home, and costs more. Ya, given the capital and recurrent maintenance costs associated with superchargers, I just can’t see Tesla really making any significant profit on electricity sales. At least in states where they’re allowed to meter freely. In those where they have to charge by the minute, maybe there’s a bit more of a buffer built in for them. But in the end, it’s a system designed to help them sell cars, nothing more than that.
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Apr 8, 2023 16:56
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pun pundit posted:Now, Tesla charging must be compared to other fast charging pricing, not to the electricity spot price. Asking the grid to come up with 100+kW all of a sudden is not the same as turning on your coffee maker at home, and costs more. Superchargers aren't at your home though, they're at large commercial sites. They buy electricity at commercial rates, and sell it to you at retail rates. According to this: https://www.energystar.gov/sites/de...%2520Stores.pdf , the average supermarket uses 50kWh per square foot. The capacity is there, and growing as parking lots and big box stores transition to LED lights and other electrical efficiencies.
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Apr 8, 2023 17:03
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MrYenko posted:Ya, given the capital and recurrent maintenance costs associated with superchargers, I just can’t see Tesla really making any significant profit on electricity sales. At least in states where they’re allowed to meter freely. In those where they have to charge by the minute, maybe there’s a bit more of a buffer built in for them. But in the end, it’s a system designed to help them sell cars, nothing more than that. Just doing some napkin maths on my Florida example, per https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a, FL commercial rates are 12.3c/kWh. (industrial is 8.3c but let's go with commercial) I charged my 57.5kWh model 3, adding about 85% capacity, so call it 50kWh. That's $6.15, and I was charged $18.50. That's a 3x markup. You're telling me they aren't making any money on this and never will?
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Apr 8, 2023 17:12
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Finger Prince posted:Just doing some napkin maths on my Florida example, per https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a, FL commercial rates are 12.3c/kWh. (industrial is 8.3c but let's go with commercial) Even taking your math at face value and ignoring the cost to install and maintain the chargers they made 12 dollars in about a half hour. At that rate a charger that was 100% utilized would make $200k a year. Tesla has 30k stalls so if every one was active every second and produced money at that same rate they would make about 6.3b a year off of the supercharger network. Teslas Revenue was 81b in 2022. The SuperCharger network will never dwarf the potential profits from selling cars. It’s potentially a nice stream of recurring revenue but it doesn’t move the needle on their valuation except insofar as it helps them sell cars.
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Apr 8, 2023 17:41
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The supercharger network is basically the last leg that Tesla's headstart balances on.
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Apr 8, 2023 18:01
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Ok Comboomer posted:I will say that a lot of leftist commentators rly don’t understand the auto industry at all, and they frequently point to poo poo like “Tesla recalls two million cars for faulty (dinglehopper)” and say poo poo like “if this were literally any other car company, their stock price would toilet/they would go bankrupt/people would be out for blood/etc“ and it’s like lmao no, not in the slightest, companies are recalling millions of their cars for dangerous, catastrophic poo poo all the time and posting record Ws, consumers literally do not care about recalls and never have As I become more attuned to it, I'm coming to the realization that this is a very AI take. And it's also correct.
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Apr 8, 2023 18:37
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Even taking your math at face value and ignoring the cost to install and maintain the chargers they made 12 dollars in about a half hour. At that rate a charger that was 100% utilized would make $200k a year. Tesla has 30k stalls so if every one was active every second and produced money at that same rate they would make about 6.3b a year off of the supercharger network. Teslas Revenue was 81b in 2022. According to https://insideevs.com/news/656779/tesla-charging-supercharging-stats/, it's 1.5 million sessions per week, averaging 27.5 minutes per session. Just in revenue alone, being conservative and saying they're only earning about half the Florida example in revenue per session, that's still $15m per week. That's 3/4 of a billion dollars per year in revenue, every year, for the the foreseeable future, and only going up as more they sell more cars and grant access to non-Teslas. E- sorry, I kind of missed the point you were making, but I'm just saying the supercharger network is basically a 'no matter what happens with manufacturing, we will always be earning billions of dollars per year just off this alone' type thing. Finger Prince fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Apr 8, 2023 |
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Apr 8, 2023 18:37
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cruft posted:As I become more attuned to it, I'm coming to the realization that this is a very AI take. It’s weird to me when people see recalls as something to attack/mock when really it’s the company owning up to a flaw they found and committing to fix it. Sure it can be inconvenient or even a little embarrassing but all things as complex as modern vehicles are going to have some issues discovered.
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Apr 8, 2023 18:41
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Finger Prince posted:Just doing some napkin maths on my Florida example, per https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a, FL commercial rates are 12.3c/kWh. (industrial is 8.3c but let's go with commercial) Now look up "demand charges" that commercial electricity users have to pay on top of the per kWh rate. I'm not saying they're breaking even, just that your math isn't accounting for all of their costs.
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Apr 8, 2023 19:22
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Wayne Knight posted:Now look up "demand charges" that commercial electricity users have to pay on top of the per kWh rate. I'm not saying they're breaking even, just that your math isn't accounting for all of their costs. Fair point, I do admit to not having a complete picture and Saturday morning shitposting based off that.
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Apr 8, 2023 19:41
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Doom Rooster posted:I'm confused by this. I am not super in the know or anything, but like, is Tesla actually reporting themselves on a massive valuation? Hasn't Musk been pretty vocal that the stock price is massively overinflated, and that it's just the market that seems to think it is worth that much? I'm not referring to their stock price, I referring to their financial statements, how they represent deliveries, liabilities, interaction with other Musk companies, loving around with crypto, their China stuff is allegedly a huge portion of their business but a complete black box, their deal with Hertz doesn't make any sense and is possibly a way of hiding excess inventory. Solar City, playing around in energy markets, pre-order deposits, Tesla's books are hosed UP. Maybe things are fine, or maybe they are super not.
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Apr 8, 2023 20:09
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Finger Prince posted:Superchargers aren't at your home though, they're at large commercial sites. They buy electricity at commercial rates, and sell it to you at retail rates. Link says it's dead. You are reporting in kWh, which I don't know what kind of period it's reporting over because I can't see the pdf, but capacity isn't the point. The supermarket is a steady load. It doesn't suddenly demand its entire load at unpredictable times. A lot full of superchargers can conceivably go from 0 load to a MW of load in less than 5 minutes if, say, 5 model Ys are driving together from A to B and stop at the same place to charge. Then, 10 minutes later, they all stop charging at the same time because now they can make their destination easily. That is a big risk factor to grid stability. "The grid handles that automatically" you might say. It does because people have planned for it and Tesla is paying suppliers to set aside megawatts of rapid response power generation for just such eventualities. That is the extra cost you're not seeing when you turn on your coffee maker at home, because your coffee maker is 1kW. Read about what power suppliers in England have to do on days with big soccer matches when half the nation turn on their tea kettles at the exact same time during half time, if you want more insight into this sort of problem with grid stability. Practical Engineering on Youtube also did some videos on this semi-recently.
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Apr 8, 2023 20:42
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Three Olives posted:I'm not referring to their stock price, I referring to their financial statements, how they represent deliveries, liabilities, interaction with other Musk companies, loving around with crypto, their China stuff is allegedly a huge portion of their business but a complete black box, their deal with Hertz doesn't make any sense and is possibly a way of hiding excess inventory. Every company does this to the extent that they possibly can though. They comply with reporting to the extent that regulations require them to and the rest is a shell game. Even compared to other auto industry peers, they're not even the worst offenders. Have you paid attention to how VAG has been structured over the past few decades? Hell, GM have made a business of shifting losses to foreign subsidiaries, then getting those subsidiaries to beg for money and incentives from their respective governments, then dumping them when they stopped being useful. Anyway this is $TSLA poo poo so, like recalls, nobody actually gives a poo poo. Finger Prince fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Apr 8, 2023 |
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Apr 8, 2023 20:46
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pun pundit posted:Link says it's dead. You are reporting in kWh, which I don't know what kind of period it's reporting over because I can't see the pdf, but capacity isn't the point. The supermarket is a steady load. It doesn't suddenly demand its entire load at unpredictable times. A lot full of superchargers can conceivably go from 0 load to a MW of load in less than 5 minutes if, say, 5 model Ys are driving together from A to B and stop at the same place to charge. Then, 10 minutes later, they all stop charging at the same time because now they can make their destination easily. The way to avoid demand charges and grid instability is to install megapacks and have them directly connected to feed the superchargers. That way they can smooth out the load or even time shift light usage to when power is cheaper or use the megapacks to actively backfeed and stabilize the grid in times of emergency. I think there is a battery electric ferry in Norway that uses a massive 9 MWh stationary pack at its dock to fast charge the ferry's 4 MWh internal battery in 10 minutes while it is loading and unloading. Definitely a viable solution to dealing with the huge swings demand that DCFC puts on the grid. pun pundit posted:There is! Dammit! Thanks, fixed. 
Indiana_Krom fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Apr 8, 2023 |
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Apr 8, 2023 21:08
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I’m just glad that there’s superchargers at Buc-ee’s.
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Apr 8, 2023 21:22
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Indiana_Krom posted:I think there is a battery electric ferry in Norway that uses a massive 9 mWh stationary pack at its dock to fast charge the ferry's 4 mWh internal battery in 10 minutes while it is loading and unloading. Definitely a viable solution to dealing with the huge swings demand that DCFC puts on the grid. There is! Case matters in the metric system. For future reference, mWh is milliwatt (1/1000) hours. MWh is megawatt (1000) hours.
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Apr 8, 2023 21:32
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Thomas has an ID7 review, and it looks much better than the other ID cars though it's probably gonna be more expensive too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wsKalO2Tc8 He mentioned some stuff is still secret but didn't comment on the steering wheel with capacitive buttons or the dumbass window controls:  Hopefully that'll get changed for production like they're planning with the other cars. He does some range calculations but the average speed in the test was 32km/h lol. 
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Apr 8, 2023 21:37
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SlowBloke posted:Tech bros will purchase tesla stock as an act of virtue signaling and hold onto it even when it crashes, buying more when it gets low. This will artificially inflate the value of the stock. Also a severe case of remembering where the price used to be. The stock has split into like 10x as many shares as originally issued, but retail investors "remember" that it's "always" traded above $150, even though now that it's been split it should trade at like $15-30
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Apr 8, 2023 22:15
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Indiana_Krom posted:The way to avoid demand charges and grid instability is to install megapacks and have them directly connected to feed the superchargers. That way they can smooth out the load or even time shift light usage to when power is cheaper or use the megapacks to actively backfeed and stabilize the grid in times of emergency. Large scale energy storage is absolutely critical to making renewable energy viable. I think there's better ways to do it than MWh class LIon battery packs but w/e. pun pundit posted:Read about what power suppliers in England have to do on days with big soccer matches when half the nation turn on their tea kettles at the exact same time during half time, if you want more insight into this sort of problem with grid stability. Practical Engineering on Youtube also did some videos on this semi-recently. The grid in England is much, much different, smaller and less interconnected than the one in the US. Also consider that things like electric arc furnaces are typically in the 300MVA range, and those cycle on and off without significant voltage or frequency excursions. Once you have tens of thousands of people using DCFCs it's going to look like a fluctuating base load, not a huge peaking load, since it's not like hundreds of people are going to start charging at the same instant.
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Apr 8, 2023 22:39
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Elviscat posted:Large scale energy storage is absolutely critical to making renewable energy viable. I think there's better ways to do it than MWh class LIon battery packs but w/e.
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Apr 8, 2023 23:02
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I would be just chuffed if they built little tiny water towers for pumped hydro at every charging location.
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Apr 8, 2023 23:29
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FilthyImp posted:The supercharger network is basically the last leg that Tesla's headstart balances on. I think they’re still ahead in efficiency, but maybe that’s because other EVs look more like cars and less like… beans? Even if we assume that Superchargers are the only remaining early advantage, it’s difficult to overstate how much of an advantage that is. I stopped at a fairly-remote spot along I-65 today (probably 150 miles from another fast charger in either direction) which had 20 superchargers and 4 EA chargers. When I got there, two EA units were in use, one of the others looked dead, and someone was fumbling with the last one. There were 4 or 5 superchargers open, so I didn’t have to wait at all. When I left, the person trying to get that 4th CCS charger to work had given up and was waiting for one of the others to leave. I honestly can’t imagine trying to sell that charging experience to anyone. Even if you only need to fast charge a couple of times a year, it just seems like it would suck the fun out of it.
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Apr 9, 2023 02:37
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Sonic Dude posted:I honestly can’t imagine trying to sell that charging experience to anyone. Even if you only need to fast charge a couple of times a year, it just seems like it would suck the fun out of it. Suck the fun out of…charging?
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Apr 9, 2023 03:40
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Sonic Dude posted:I think they’re still ahead in efficiency, but maybe that’s because other EVs look more like cars and less like… beans? Mercedes caught up with their EQS but they also look bean-like.
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Apr 9, 2023 04:19
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Suck the fun out of…charging? Taking an EV on a road trip, part of which involves charging, yes.
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Apr 9, 2023 04:53
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I heard a take this weekend of "EVs will never replace gas cars because you can't just hop in one and drive it to Florida.". So I told them about DCFC.
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Apr 9, 2023 12:26
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Sonic Dude posted:Taking an EV on a road trip, part of which involves charging, yes. If the mere thought of having to wait to charge on a road trip that you take once or twice a year fills you with existential dread then I’m not sure an EV of any brand is the right choice. The whole post smacks of the same complete inability to deal with minor inconvenience that ICE drivers project onto EV drivers constantly. “Oh, you have to stop ever 200 miles for 30 minutes? How do people even live that way?” Non Tesla charging isn’t perfect or even great, but it’s at least serviceable in large parts of the country and if you aren’t making very frequent long trips that’s more than enough.
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Apr 9, 2023 15:53
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Any more news about the EV equinox? I remember hearing more would come out in spring and I was waiting for info before I settle on a purchase before end of year.
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Apr 9, 2023 16:30
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Indiana_Krom posted:I heard a take this weekend of "EVs will never replace gas cars because you can't just hop in one and drive it to Florida.". So I told them about DCFC. Mass EV adoption won’t happen until a few major things happen: - Lithium is replaced by a new tech. There isn’t enough lithium on earth to replace all the gas powered cars. Let alone the environmental impact of mining said lithium. - The charging infrastructure, and in turn, the power grid are upgraded to be as convenient as our current gas station fueling process. - The cost of EVs come down. Not just here, but in all countries. The first point is the biggest. We physically do not have enough lithium that we know of to replace all the cars. FlapYoJacks fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Apr 9, 2023 |
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Apr 9, 2023 17:46
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FlapYoJacks posted:Mass EV adoption won’t happen until a few major things happen: Sodium ion batteries will probably supplant lithium in mass production within the decade. This also addresses the third point. Cheap batteries equals EVs that can compete on price with cheap ICE cars. Charging infrastructure is very jurisdiction dependent, and those places determined to hang on to petroleum will continue to be more difficult to recharge in than ones embracing electrification. The biggest hurdle isn't DCFC stations, that's coming along fine, it's making home charging available to the vast numbers of people who don't live in a house with a private driveway or garage (basically people who live in cities, which is most people).
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Apr 9, 2023 18:02
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FlapYoJacks posted:Mass EV adoption won’t happen until a few major things happen: If you have L2 charging available at home it’s already more convenient than gas. Hence Finger Prince posted:The biggest hurdle isn't DCFC stations, that's coming along fine, it's making home charging available to the vast numbers of people who don't live in a house with a private driveway or garage (basically people who live in cities, which is most people). Which is going to be very tough to do without sustained government investment.
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Apr 9, 2023 18:37
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Indiana_Krom posted:I heard a take this weekend of "EVs will never replace gas cars because you can't just hop in one and drive it to Florida.".
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Apr 9, 2023 18:42
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I think we also will need charging at work instead of just at home, if for no other reason than it takes some potential peak load off of the evening hours. It would allow the grid to shift roughly half the commuter recharging load to during the day instead of just in the evening when everyone is home without having to modify consumer behavior. It would also enable people to commute more easily with smaller batteries.Vegetable posted:That sounds like a pro, not a con Yeah, that was actually the first thing I thought too but didn't say it.
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Apr 9, 2023 18:52
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Finger Prince posted:The biggest hurdle isn't DCFC stations, that's coming along fine, it's making home charging available to the vast numbers of people who don't live in a house with a private driveway or garage (basically people who live in cities, which is most people). The majority of Americans have access to a private off street parking spot of some sort, depending on the source I'm finding percentages as low as 10% being those drivers who rely on street parking (probably because street parking is hell). L2 charging in shared garages will get better over time.
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Apr 9, 2023 18:59
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Indiana_Krom posted:I think we also will need charging at work instead of just at home, if for no other reason than it takes some potential peak load off of the evening hours. It would allow the grid to shift roughly half the commuter recharging load to during the day instead of just in the evening when everyone is home without having to modify consumer behavior. It would also enable people to commute more easily with smaller batteries. WFH, gig work and shift work make up a large portion of the workforce. About 2 in 5 workers work non-standard schedules, so even if people were only charging at home you’d probably see a reasonable spread of demand. The problem right now is that EVs are mostly a luxury for white collar workers who have a standard 8-5 weekday schedule.
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Apr 9, 2023 19:13
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Tyro posted:Thanks! My car doesn't have a fuse in spot 27... Haven't been able to go to dealer yet, as infotainment wasn't a priority once the car was running so I could use it to commute but now the Volt has killed 2 new 12v batteries in the month since jumping it. They lasted about a week each. Got a warranty replacement on the first, for a bad cell, but today that one died too. Cool.
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Apr 9, 2023 19:42
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I’d say we’re already in the mass adoption phase. One in twenty cars sold in the US are already EVs, and that’s been limited by production capacity, not demand for EVs. I think charging infrastructure will be an actual “rain follows the plow” situation. People buying now are comfortable with the charging infrastructure we have, but will induce more infrastructure to be built, allowing more people to be comfortable with EVs in a virtuous cycle. I’ve seen a couple posts about “there’s not enough lithium in the world” but no citation for such claims. Environmental issues may be valid concerns regarding lithium extraction, but is the alternative the status quo of petroleum extraction? Because that’s not going well for the environment either.
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Apr 9, 2023 19:48
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FlapYoJacks posted:Mass EV adoption won’t happen until a few major things happen:
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