Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
InDirect Fire. Artillery, mortars, etc.

I wrote so many letters to bank managers and landlords on behalf of deckhands and ABs, it’s kinda sad.

Then I went ashore and saw how the captains and chief engineers wrote and uh… yeah. Not great. And I’m not talking about the ones who don’t have English as their first language.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013
"All Staff Sargents and above will have to report to morning fomation at 0500!!!


Make sure you have your neck gator, woobi cover, and blank firing adpter!
No sick call alowed and if your telling me that you cant run then tell it to my face in the morning!


-Sargent first class So-So"




This would be a pretty standard message from a senior enlisted member who had me write all his emails to important people. It's not pure illiteracy, it's just 3rd grade sentence structure and no idea how to write most words.
Here's my former PL, showing her smartest and brightest troopers.




Vahakyla fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Apr 9, 2023

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Vahakyla posted:


This would be a pretty standard message from a senior enlisted member who had me write all his emails to important people. It's not pure illiteracy, it's just 3rd grade sentence structure and no idea how to write most words.
Here's my former PL, showing her smartest and brightest troopers.

this is plenty of people high-paid knowledge worker offices too. writing good are hard

Wrong Theory
Aug 27, 2005

Satellite from days of old, lead me to your access code

Also anything with Chongo. He's got a good run score at least!


Murgos posted:

It’s BS. Over E6 promotions requires a bunch of classroom time and formal training.

I’m sure a couple slip through here and there but in my experience pretty much all staff NCOs, especially E8s and E9s had accumulated years of formal classroom time through various leadership courses and other required training.

Even the grunts.

I made a couple hundred bucks doing a different E-6's online class work lol. This may have been during covid I don't remember exactly.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

I was Army Reserve and was cross-leveled to a unit in West Virginia that was at 45% strength prior to deployment. After bringing in a bunch of other cross-leveled soldiers, we wound up with maybe 70-80% from the Ohio River Valley. I was one of two people in my platoon with any college education (the other being a natural resources police officer), compared to my unit in DC where I'd say 60-70% of the entire unit had at least an associate's degree, and most had a 4 year degree.

We had some really smart Joes and NCOs, but a few really couldn't communicate via written word. At all. I was reviewing sworn statements one time after we got attacked, and it took the better part of a day because I had to keep bringing folks in to explain what the hell they had written. For the most part, I could make out what they were attempting to get across and make it work with some slight edits, but several required me to effectively ghost-write the entire statement.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

I think there is a difference that people are kinda ignoring- you can be literate, but functionally illiterate.

I've met too many senior NCOs who can write passable for Army poo poo, because it's mostly copy pasta, but outside of Army and without Army support, they are pretty much illiterate to the real world. I've seen dudes who can write amazing NCOER and Counseling form, but drat near had to dictate a witness statement without a computer.
This seemed a larger problem in the Guard than active in my experience, and I have a pretty limited scope.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Godholio posted:

Are you using AA to mean anti-air? As in surface-to-air?

Yeah, sorry. There was the RUSI report about the air war, back in November IIRC, warning how Russia's air campaign against critical infrastructure was seriously depleting Ukraine's remaining stockpile of S-300 and Buk missiles; one of the leaks goes into detail what US projections are how long they will last. If it's true, we may see the impact of that rather soon.

It might be a useful exercise to read that report again, and tally up the systems sent in support since, as well as Ukraine’s expenditure.

My takeaway is that it's no use mocking Russia for however few missiles they can produce and launch each month, if Ukraine's supporters can't outproduce them in interceptors and keep supplying them for the duration.

Thing may pick up, but there likely will be a period of vulnerability until then. I'm no judge how much damage Russia can do in that time, or what impact a more permissive environment for Russian air support might mean for the intended Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





So uhmmm

If Ukraine has mulched a ton of Russians in Bakhmut, and there haven't really been stories of another mass conscription, I wonder how the Russian manpower situation is looking.

Especially since, you know, summer is coming and one would expect major offensives to kick off again.

CSM
Jan 29, 2014

56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Joke Miriam posted:

Is Ukraine going to run out of manpower and ammo?
Manpower: no.
Experienced manpower: probably gone for a large part already.
Ammo: Yes, already there. This is an article from yesterday talking about ammo shortages:

quote:

...

Even amid a shortage, Ukraine is firing some 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, according to a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. Russia, which may also be running low, is firing more — by some estimates triple that amount.

...

Artillery rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet-era guns, which make up the majority of their arsenal, have long been in short supply. That has forced a reliance on the artillery provided by Kyiv’s Western allies because they use 155mm caliber shells, which Ukraine has more of for now but for far fewer guns.

At the pace Ukraine is firing, those stocks could soon run out, too, as Western countries struggle to ramp up production. In February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the “current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.”

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/08/ukraine-ammunition-shortage-shells-ration/

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

A.o.D. posted:

I must've been in a very different Army from everyone else.

I was in some lovely units. I left before the US Army WTF people were getting started. Of the previous units that still exist, they are regularly featured.

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!

bulletsponge13 posted:

I think there is a difference that people are kinda ignoring- you can be literate, but functionally illiterate.

I've met too many senior NCOs who can write passable for Army poo poo, because it's mostly copy pasta, but outside of Army and without Army support, they are pretty much illiterate to the real world. I've seen dudes who can write amazing NCOER and Counseling form, but drat near had to dictate a witness statement without a computer

I worked with a doctor who was at like a 1st grade spelling level for everything other than complex medical terminology. His medical records were always fun.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

Maybe I'm phrasing that wrong or maybe the SNCO School is a big PsyOp where they teach you to convince your subordinates that you are an idiot who only knows Army regs and lawn care.

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013

bulletsponge13 posted:

Maybe I'm phrasing that wrong or maybe the SNCO School is a big PsyOp where they teach you to convince your subordinates that you are an idiot who only knows Army regs and lawn care.

I don’t think most of my SNCOs had any idea what the Army regs actually say.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Comrade Blyatlov posted:

So uhmmm

If Ukraine has mulched a ton of Russians in Bakhmut, and there haven't really been stories of another mass conscription, I wonder how the Russian manpower situation is looking.

Especially since, you know, summer is coming and one would expect major offensives to kick off again.

Russia is processing a conscript class right now and will probably not make any moves until after they see how many contract soldiers they can squeeze out of the outgoing batch. They're trying to avoid another mobilization for internal political and economic reasons, but Kofman, who I love to reference in this thread, doesn't think they can get by without doing another wave because they've been so wasteful with their soldiers' lives and are relying on bulk infantry to keep up progress at this point.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Vahakyla posted:

I don’t think most of my SNCOs had any idea what the Army regs actually say.

According to every SNCO I've ever met that cites Army regs, they miraculously say whatever they want them to say regardless of what they actually say. And they get really upset when junior officers bother to look them up.

Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry

A.o.D. posted:

I must've been in a very different Army from everyone else.

All my SNCOs were literate, many of them were scum, but they could still read and write.

JudgeJoeBrown
Mar 23, 2007

Wagner has been beheading AFU members in Bakhmut recently and today they displayed a head on a stick in the city.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
bellingcat doesn't buy the official line that russia was behind the doc leak, but like, who the gently caress sneaks that much printed material out of a secure facility just to post it on their 20 person discord server with an interest in orthodox christianity and russian mil youtubers

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1645108873231998978

(the original article has some images of the documents, but they're blurred to all hell)

that feels more like someone was a russian intelligence agent who decided to go rogue on their handlers for whatever reason and share the docs they were tasked with collecting more publicly

also lol at the peanut gallery thinking bellingcat OSI work beat the government to the punch, like discord wasn't NSLed to all hell for records of anywhere those images were shared to try and trace the source

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




glynnenstein posted:

Kofman, who I love to reference in this thread, doesn't think they can get by without doing another wave because they've been so wasteful with their soldiers' lives and are relying on bulk infantry to keep up progress at this point.

From what I've seen, a reasonable assumption of average casualty rates for Russia is 1500 a day, killed, wounded, and captured. 300,000 mobiks runs out right about now. They'll get some of the wounded back, but they're right back to being desperately short on people, and also with lower stocks of munitions.

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

JudgeJoeBrown posted:

Wagner has been beheading AFU members in Bakhmut recently and today they displayed a head on a stick in the city.
You know an organization is bad when they're copying ISIS.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

bellingcat doesn't buy the official line that russia was behind the doc leak, but like, who the gently caress sneaks that much printed material out of a secure facility just to post it on their 20 person discord server with an interest in orthodox christianity and russian mil youtubers

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1645108873231998978

(the original article has some images of the documents, but they're blurred to all hell)

that feels more like someone was a russian intelligence agent who decided to go rogue on their handlers for whatever reason and share the docs they were tasked with collecting more publicly

also lol at the peanut gallery thinking bellingcat OSI work beat the government to the punch, like discord wasn't NSLed to all hell for records of anywhere those images were shared to try and trace the source

What are you basing these revelatory findings on?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Speculation I assume. Still, the collection of pictures is notable in that it's more than a hundred pictures over a period time being systematically photographed in apparently identical settings, eg hastily unfolded and with seemingly identical lighting. Whatever was going on was a lot more than someone just taking a quick one-off photo to win a discord argument or w/e.

glynnenstein posted:

Russia is processing a conscript class right now and will probably not make any moves until after they see how many contract soldiers they can squeeze out of the outgoing batch. They're trying to avoid another mobilization for internal political and economic reasons, but Kofman, who I love to reference in this thread, doesn't think they can get by without doing another wave because they've been so wasteful with their soldiers' lives and are relying on bulk infantry to keep up progress at this point.

they're also about a month into a big round of volunscription, which is a big push for 'volunteers' but in practice is probably going to look somewhat less voluntary given how few willing volunteers are left who haven't already volunteered.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Apr 10, 2023

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

Vahakyla posted:

I don’t think most of my SNCOs had any idea what the Army regs actually say.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnvUIaoEdq4

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Murgos posted:

It’s BS. Over E6 promotions requires a bunch of classroom time and formal training.

I’m sure a couple slip through here and there but in my experience pretty much all staff NCOs, especially E8s and E9s had accumulated years of formal classroom time through various leadership courses and other required training.

Even the grunts.

Your optimism is heartwarming.

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

also lol at the peanut gallery thinking bellingcat OSI work beat the government to the punch, like discord wasn't NSLed to all hell for records of anywhere those images were shared to try and trace the source

More that the NSA Sigint whatever codeword there is for Discord bulk collection probably, like many NSA programs, takes weeks to filter down to anybody else. So while they could have just Ctrl-F'd the database, the person doing the Ctrl-F has a lot of abbreviations and the database has a lot of abbreviations and the paperwork to move the results from one abbreviation to a lesser abbreviation would take a few days assuming you knew the guy and the paperwork invovled.

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

Jimmy Smuts posted:

You know an organization is bad when they're copying ISIS.

You're giving them too much credit, since they're more likely copying Game of Thrones.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

FrozenVent posted:

InDirect Fire. Artillery, mortars, etc.

I wrote so many letters to bank managers and landlords on behalf of deckhands and ABs, it’s kinda sad.

Thus has it ever been. I was looking through a letterbook of a 1920s USN ship CO and it had copies of his letters to obvious mail order scam companies telling them that no, he would not let them send debt collectors after some sailor because of non-payment on a "get girls through hypnosis" seminar.

EDIT: It might not actually have been a "get girls through hypnosis" course but it was something to do with either stage magic or hypnotism.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Apr 10, 2023

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Looks like the harassment of the RAF RC-135 over the Black Sea last year came close to being a flashpoint:

(non-paywalled link)
https://wapo.st/3Mroot9

quote:

A Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane last year, according to a leaked U.S. military document circulating online, an incident more significant than was previously disclosed and that could have drawn the United States and its NATO allies directly into the Ukraine war.

...

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace disclosed the incident to Parliament’s House of Commons in October, saying that two Russian Su-27 fighter jets had intercepted the RC-135 in international airspace over the Black Sea, flying “recklessly,” with one plane coming within 15 feet of the British aircraft.

One of the Russian jets “released a missile” at a distance, Wallace told lawmakers then — but he did not describe the incident as a near-shootdown, attributed the missile launch to a “technical malfunction” and said he had spoken with senior Russian defense officials about it.

Dein Specht
Apr 5, 2023

Hannibal Rex posted:

This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html

WSJ ran a similar scaremongering headline based on these leaked documents. They've already been replaced or supply has been secured from elsewhere

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1645256559532834816

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1645256573483188224

Dein Specht fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Apr 10, 2023

psydude
Apr 1, 2008


What do they say? It's making me log in, and I stopped using Twitter after Elon started charging for 2FA.

Dein Specht
Apr 5, 2023

quote:

According to the leaked Pentagon papers on 1 March Ukraine had 421 S-300 missiles and was using around 180 of these per month. So without missile resupply Ukraine would be out of S-300 missiles by May.

BUT Ukraine got 2x Patriot and 1x SAMP/T batteries: two systems that are far, far, far superior in everything when compared to the S-300s Ukraine had. Ukraine will operate the three batteries at its most important sites = the sites russia attacks most often. And due to this S-300 missile expenditure per month will drop to maybe 60 missiles. Now Ukraine will run out of them in July or August... but as Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Egypt, and Greece are quietly resupplying Ukraine with missiles there will be enough S-300 missiles until fall. That's more than half a year... and in that time 7x NASAMS, 3x IRIS-T, 3x Aspide, an undisclosed number of HAWK, more SAMP/T and Patriot batteries will arrive.

And at the same time the US and Ukraine are working to mount RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles onto Ukrainian BUK launchers.

Ukraine would be in trouble if the West wouldn't deliver new systems and batteries. But as the situation is now - no worries. russian fighter jets will continue to be shot down every time they enter Ukrainian air space.

The real problem Ukraine has is fighter jets... for them spares and missiles are running out; and the West has so far not sent a single F-15, F-16, F-18, Eurofighter, Rafale, or Gripen to Ukraine... and that is a huge problem.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





psydude posted:

Looks like the harassment of the RAF RC-135 over the Black Sea last year came close to being a flashpoint:

(non-paywalled link)
https://wapo.st/3Mroot9

15 feet? That's just stupid. Were they inverted and taking photos too?

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

psydude posted:

What do they say? It's making me log in, and I stopped using Twitter after Elon started charging for 2FA.

That's Thomas Theiner saying there's no cause for concern because two Patriot and one SAMP/T batteries, and the decrease in Russian attacks, created enough of a windfall that Ukrainian supplies will last until more Western systems come online.

I remain skeptical. But apparently Lawrence Freedman considers these points valid enough to signal boost them.

CSM
Jan 29, 2014

56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

psydude posted:

What do they say? It's making me log in, and I stopped using Twitter after Elon started charging for 2FA.

quote:

For the non-military people:

UKRAINE WILL NEVER RUN OUT OF AIR-DEFENSE MISSILES!

Ignore scaremongering journalists, who want to scare you into reading their nonsense.

According to the leaked Pentagon papers on 1 March Ukraine had 421 S-300 missiles and was using around
1/6

180 of these per month. So without missile resupply Ukraine would be out of S-300 missiles by May.

BUT Ukraine got 2x Patriot and 1x SAMP/T batteries: two systems that are far, far, far superior in everything when compared to the S-300s Ukraine had. Ukraine will operate
2/n

the three batteries at its most important sites = the sites russia attacks most often.
And due to this S-300 missile expenditure per month will drop to maybe 60 missiles. Now Ukraine will run out of them in July or August... but as Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Egypt, and Greece
3/n

are quietly resupplying Ukraine with missiles there will be enough S-300 missiles until fall. That's more than half a year... and in that time 7x NASAMS, 3x IRIS-T, 3x Aspide, an undisclosed number of HAWK, more SAMP/T and Patriot batteries will arrive.

And at the same time
4/n

the US and Ukraine are working to mount RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles onto Ukrainian BUK launchers.

Ukraine would be in trouble if the West wouldn't deliver new systems and batteries. But as the situation is now - no worries. russian fighter jets will continue to be shot down
5/n

every time they enter Ukrainian air space.

The real problem Ukraine has is fighter jets... for them spares and missiles are running out; and the West has so far not sent a single F-15, F-16, F-18, Eurofighter, Rafale, or Gripen to Ukraine... and that is a huge problem.
6/end

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

It's worth noting some Bulgarians are already in the replies casting doubt on his assumption that Bulgaria can/will assist.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

spankmeister posted:

What are you basing these revelatory findings on?

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Speculation I assume. Still, the collection of pictures is notable in that it's more than a hundred pictures over a period time being systematically photographed in apparently identical settings, eg hastily unfolded and with seemingly identical lighting. Whatever was going on was a lot more than someone just taking a quick one-off photo to win a discord argument or w/e.

yah less in the sense that "russia _itself_ leaked these top secret doc snapshots to random meme youtuber discord" than speculation on how and why someone would wind up in a situation where "take camera snapshots of many printed top secret documents on a very specific current events topic" is something you do in the course of your regular job duties as someone with access to such documents

the three US officials aren't talking to reuters about who's responsible for posting the images to discord, but they have a reasonable guess as to why those images exist at all

Scrungus
Nov 21, 2022
Honestly what I'm most curious about is how effective those old rear end hawk batteries are gonna be. Those things are contemporaneous with what, SA-6 ? And you'd figure given their ubiquity, the Russians would have a ton of Soviet era data WEZ, emission, etc data on them. I wonder if their radar could even pick up a shahed.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

It's worth noting some Bulgarians are already in the replies casting doubt on his assumption that Bulgaria can/will assist.

Is that the best source of news?

PurpleXVI
Oct 30, 2011

Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

the three US officials aren't talking to reuters about who's responsible for posting the images to discord, but they have a reasonable guess as to why those images exist at all

Considering mentions that some of the numbers in the leaked data do not seem to line up with publicly available or stated data, and look like they've been intentionally altered, what are the odds that this leak is intentional disinformation to confuse the Russians?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Fearless
Sep 3, 2003

DRINK MORE MOXIE


Russia's manpower situation is going the be getting increasingly acute with the probable need to put more troops on the Finnish birder now that Finland has joined NATO. And by the sounds of things, the Kremlin might be starting to acknowledge that all those suspicious building fires and assassinations might actually be the work of domestic opposition groups. I dunno how much the Russians will have to spare if the Ukrainians hammer them again, and another big mobilization is going to take months to pull off.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply