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If it's some bullshit GOP thing that lasts for a week, it wouldn't surprise me if the market largely looks through it. If it's a full-blown constitutional crisis and US Treasurys default for a month or more, who knows. It's the finance equivalent of trying to divide by zero. You might be happy to buy negative yielding Japanese government bonds.
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Apr 10, 2023 13:34
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Bitcoin
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Apr 10, 2023 14:02
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Strong Sauce posted:If the US cannot meet its obligation in paying back it's debts... what makes anyone think we'll still have an economy in a week? Treasuries are the basis of everything in the domestic and most of the global economy. The balance sheets of banks are built on using them as assets to make loans. The banking system would collapse, dogs and cats living together etc.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:24
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Subvisual Haze posted:The correct answer. I actually expect in these sorts of instances even the heges like gold and bitcoin would totally collapse alongside.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:28
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Subvisual Haze posted:The correct answer. I suppose it might be a factor that this issue would be 100% due to a narrow legal complexity being leveraged for (as far as I know right now) merely the appearance/general idea of some kind of fiscal austerity.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:38
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I'm not sure why people think bitcoin is a hedge, it's highly correlated with US stocks, and the correlation increases when there is turmoil. It's a popular thing for pro-bitcoin people to claim but it's just not true. From February 2022 to July 2022, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, Bitcoin and Ether had correlations of 0.58 and 0.59 with the market, while gold had a correlation of -0.12.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:41
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Pretending treasuries are somehow less valuable relative to other debt is its own form of dumb political theatre though. Remember back when Moody's downgraded US treasuries to lower AA ratings during an earlier debt ceiling theatre event during the Obama years? Implying that if treasuries did in fact fail, somehow corporate/state/muni AAA debt denominated in US dollars was "safer" and would somehow not also meltdown. Just complete birdbrain logic. If treasuries go down, it's hard to imagine what financial instruments wouldn't meltdown with them.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:48
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Ya'll are kind of ridiculous. Rich people are not about to allow themselves to stop being rich. The fed and whoever will assure everyone that in fact a mixture of US treasuries (despite the default) European sovereign debt and maybe some Chinese debt is effectively risk free and everyone will go along, because the alternative is rich people no longer being rich. Look at how the Fed and the government looked the other way while companies caused massive inflation "just cause" and officials just ignored it because it meant ensuring that workers increasing leverage due to deaths and the pandemic would be removed.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:56
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You got a lot more respect and admiration for the wisdom of rich people than I do.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:04
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pseudanonymous posted:Ya'll are kind of ridiculous. Rich people are not about to allow themselves to stop being rich. The fed and whoever will assure everyone that in fact a mixture of US treasuries (despite the default) European sovereign debt and maybe some Chinese debt is effectively risk free and everyone will go along, because the alternative is rich people no longer being rich. The GOP want to gently caress over Biden as much as they can, but not in any way that would cut off their donor gravy train.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:19
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Nessus posted:You got a lot more respect and admiration for the wisdom of rich people than I do. It's not wisdom, it's greed. gently caress around with people's money and find out.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:29
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If you think the dollar is not going to die: continue as you are or if you want to try timing the market wait for panic to set in, then buy the dip/sell options on treasuries to profit off the implied volatility. If you think the dollar is going to die: invest in bottled water, preserved food, ammunition, bunkers, and gasoline with which to pay off Lord Humongous
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Apr 10, 2023 15:39
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Subvisual Haze posted:If you think the dollar is not going to die: continue as you are or if you want to try timing the market wait for panic to set in, then buy the dip/sell options on treasuries to profit off the implied volatility.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:41
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Nessus posted:Can we take a contrarian option and somehow invest in becoming a gayboy berserker? yes, go long cardio
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Apr 10, 2023 15:44
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Nessus posted:Can we take a contrarian option and somehow invest in becoming a gayboy berserker?
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Apr 10, 2023 15:49
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Ah, the best American investment of the mid 1800's, a gun
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Apr 10, 2023 15:57
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Subvisual Haze posted:If you think the dollar is not going to die: continue as you are or if you want to try timing the market wait for panic to set in, then buy the dip/sell options on treasuries to profit off the implied volatility. So you're saying buy stock in whichever companies make hockey masks
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Apr 10, 2023 16:36
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Red posted:So you're saying buy stock in whichever companies make hockey masks Don't forget foam spikes and power-shoulders. Diversify into whoever makes those, and (depending on your particular meta-analysis on the afterscape) possibly novelty codpieces.
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Apr 10, 2023 20:48
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I’ve got about $2k to gamble away into nothing by the end of the year. What’s the goon approved moonshot option play?
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Apr 11, 2023 00:01
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True major US default is basically a “nukes are flying” situation. No good solution there. Biden will mint the platinum coin before it gets to that. So the true opportunity is to get your awesome Ocean’s 11 crew to stake out the intersection of H Street and 15th Street in DC so you can steal the trillion-dollar coin as it makes its way from the White House to the Treasury building. (With a backup crew in Lafayette Square when it turns out they have an incognito runner transporting the actual coin on foot via that path.)
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Apr 11, 2023 00:45
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I have an investment thesis around the way things are trending but I'm not really sure the best way to invest around it to capitalize. A couple of things: 1. Canada has opened the door to a metric gently caress ton of immigration and is the fastest growing G7 nation, adding 1M people in a year and blowing past 40M people. 2. There is absolutely not enough homes and near zero rental vacancy across the country is helping push land values into the stratosphere. 3. Status quo favouring politicians at all levels continue limit housing development, locking existing single family home (SFH) areas into off limits stasis and forcing any and all home development into tiny slices of tired industrial land and dead strip malls. This results in a development pattern such as pictured, an example of planned development around a future subway station on the outskirts of suburban Toronto  The centre of these condo towers currently being the centrepoint mall and all other towers only being on lovely surrounding stripmalls, with the existing SFH areas completely untouched. 4. As cities opt to redevelop commercial and industrial instead of the huge amount of existing residentially zoned land, there is now an incredible shortage of industrial land, with ultra low vacancy (ie. below 1%) and industrial rents dramatically rising. quote:https://renx.ca/reits-bullish-canada-industrial-real-estate-realreit So ultimately what this all means is that incredible growth coupled with dysfunctional Canadian city building practices is combining to make dead malls and industrial land enormously valuable in the future, assuming that sanity does not prevail and Canadian politicians continue to shield SFHs from any and all redevelopment into apartments. Sadly, as much as it would be good for apartments to be allowed in *gasp* residential areas, I expect the status quo to continue and apartments to only be allowed into a tiny sliver of land. Accordingly said tiny slivers of land should become dramatically more valuable than they should be. Industrial in particular is most likely to become even more valuable, as while these redevelopments will certainly be mixed use spaces with retail on the ground floor replacing the previous retail and commercial floor space, it's more likely that in the cases where industrial is transformed into residential, there is no replacement of industrial, further putting more pressure on the limited amount of existing space where industrial is allowed. The question is how to invest to take advantage of this? (another question: are you guys noticing the same poo poo in America or is this a Canadian thing?) The first idea that comes to mind would be commercial and industrial REITs (which seem rather beaten down right now). It's an area I don't know much about, as I usually stay away from this sort of dull dividend investing. Unfortunately some of these industrial REITs are also biggly invested in owning enormous warehouses far from cities that are rather tied to logistics and the new dot com shipping economy, so unfortunately while what I'm really interested in is urban industrial that is poised to turn over into residential, buying an industrial REIT seems to give a lot of exposure to tech and the whims of ecommerce. I think the value here is not just in the vacancy pushing up rents, but also in the redevelopment of these sites. What is not clear to me however is whether the dull dividend focused orientation of these REIT businesses dissuades them from engaging in this redevelopment aspect. Do they just sell the land to a developer and find another dull strip mall to buy for rent money? Similarly while I love the idea of investing in urban malls that are poised to become the next 11 tower urban centre, these mall REITs are also invested in the sort of far flung suburban mall that are dying. Maybe that's just what you have to accept. Another interesting REIT is this one that particularly focuses on car dealerships. That's one big way to accumulate huge amounts of urban land that can one day be turned into a much more valuable residential tower. Again though it's not really clear to me whether redeveloping land or even trying to sell it off is part of the business model. Some of the top industrial REIT tickers in this space: Automotive Properties REIT (TSX:APR.UN) industrial ---------------- Dream Industrial REIT (TSE:DIR.UN) Granite REIT (GRT.UN) Malls/residential? ---------- First Capital REIT (FCR-UN-T ) Smartcentres Real Estate Investment Trust (SRU-UN-T) RioCan REIT (REI-UN-T ) Very, very likely that I'm not the first one to notice this.... quote:Real estate, not retail, seen key to shopping centre survival The big thing to note (for Canadians anyway.. no idea the implications for Americans) is the tax structure of REITs means that you'll very much want to hold this sort of investment in some sort of instrument that is tax sheltered. (For Canadians this means RRSP or TFSA) quote:As Canadian REITs must pay out all their income, the entity does not pay taxes on its earnings. Instead, they have a tax flow-through structure. In some cases, the investor takes on the tax burden, treating those distributions as income. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Apr 12, 2023 |
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Apr 12, 2023 04:53
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Nessus posted:You got a lot more respect and admiration for the wisdom of rich people than I do. They will remain solvent long before you or I go broke.
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Apr 12, 2023 05:56
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Hmm, I know the macerich mall near me is getting somewhat the same treatment, building a lot of apartment buildings in the now empty parking lots, and in a lot of the empty retail around it. Although they aren't going to blow up the mall itself, I think they believe the apartment dwellers are gonna shop there and save the mall. But they are getting a ton of my tax dollars to do this redevelopment from the city, in the name of preserving an income stream from the mall. And avoiding the developing eyesore. And property taxes from the apartments I guess? Although I think they gave years and years of breaks away, so I'm guessing the breakeven is a decade+ away for the city. It is not nearly the same as what you are describing though, because there is still plenty of nearby-ish land to develop into higher density buildings. The mall is fairly centrally located though, and has bike trails/bus stops/shopping/etc all right there already, so they are going to be relatively desirable units. I guess MAC and SPG would be equivalents in the US. Would have to do some due diligence to figure out who has more urban malls and if they are aggressively pursuing the same strategy. Pivoting from slowly dying mall owners to apartment and condo developers. Right into the teeth of an incoming housing correction. But if they are getting the same sort of tax breaks my city is handing to them, it *should* be hard for them to lose money.
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Apr 12, 2023 06:03
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Femtosecond posted:(another question: are you guys noticing the same poo poo in America or is this a Canadian thing?) It's an American thing too and becoming an enormous problem. There's a big reason why places like Los Angeles or Austin have extraordinarily terrible traffic along with insanely high real estate costs because the overwhelming majority of dense housing development is extremely regulated only in certain areas like downtown or simply not allowed. That said, some cities like Portland and Minneapolis have had huge local victories allowing significant upzoning allowing more affordable options. As far as capitalizing on it, it kind of feels to me that there could be a huge residential real estate rush but the problem now is that despite the growing population developers might have built too many units in the short term and with the upcoming recession vacancy rates are expected to increase at time when we really do not want that happen because it'll likely hurt long term development and prices will likely spike in the future.
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Apr 12, 2023 06:39
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Femtosecond posted:The big thing to note (for Canadians anyway.. no idea the implications for Americans) is the tax structure of REITs means that you'll very much want to hold this sort of investment in some sort of instrument that is tax sheltered. (For Canadians this means RRSP or TFSA) In the US at least you definitely don't want to hold REITs (or MLPs) a tax sheltered account. A tax-sheltered account doesn't make you immune to taxes, REIT dividends are taxed as ordinary income which is not protected by your Roth, and if there's a return of capital distribution you'd also lose the advantage of having it in your taxable account. There's also extra paperwork come tax time. Generally if there's some tax advantage inherent in the security (corporate structure, muni bonds, whatever) you want it in a taxable account. In the US there's both a shortage of housing and lots of vacancies but rents a lot of asking rents aren't being reduced because it would make loans callable and this whole space is uninvestable at the moment imo. Canada might be better though.
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Apr 12, 2023 09:29
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I remember listening to a fairly high profile fund manager talking about REITs and he was saying that one thing to look for is a REIT that has a high ratio of land to buildings. His reasoning being that land appreciates whereas buildings depreciate, so if a lot of the REIT's capital is tied up in a building the value of that is diminishing over time compared to a REIT that has capital tied up mostly in land. The example he gave as a REIT that he liked owned the giant sheds and carparks a big box hardware chain operated out of. The sheds, being of fairly utilitarian construction wouldn't wear out anywhere near as fast as say an office building, and the land the sheds were built on was worth considerably more than the sheds themselves. It's not listed in the US but I'm sure similar entities exist there.
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Apr 12, 2023 10:18
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:A tax-sheltered account doesn't make you immune to taxes, REIT dividends are taxed as ordinary income which is not protected by your Roth, I'm pretty sure this isn't true? You don't pay taxes on REIT dividends until you withdraw if they're in a Roth, and since they're taxed like income anyways it's one of the best uses of a Roth.
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Apr 12, 2023 13:22
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:In the US at least you definitely don't want to hold REITs (or MLPs) a tax sheltered account. A tax-sheltered account doesn't make you immune to taxes, REIT dividends are taxed as ordinary income which is not protected by your Roth, and if there's a return of capital distribution you'd also lose the advantage of having it in your taxable account. There's also extra paperwork come tax time.
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Apr 12, 2023 13:23
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I’m no longer sure that everything I said is true about ordinary income but you can definitely get return of capital distributions from an REIT that are not taxed and would be better to have in a taxable account. I’m getting in the weeds here.
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Apr 12, 2023 16:13
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Fireside Nut posted:I bought some 4/21 $DWAC and $RUM puts on their big jumps today. Hoping that’s plenty of time for both of them to sell off. Update: both panned out pretty well. Sold the $RUM put after a few days for 66% return and dumped $DWAC today while ITM for a 10% or so. Next up on my chud plays is $BUD. Considering some commons or calls as the right wing outrage machine will lose interest and go after something else soon enough. I know next to nothing when it comes to TA but my only concern is that $BUD was on a decent uptrend prior to the 'controversy.'
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Apr 12, 2023 17:59
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Fireside Nut posted:Update: both panned out pretty well. Sold the $RUM put after a few days for 66% return and dumped $DWAC today while ITM for a 10% or so. Grats on the DWAC play! I just didn't have the balls to jump into that mess, despite it seeming like a slam dunk.
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Apr 12, 2023 18:04
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Baddog posted:Grats on the DWAC play! I just didn't have the balls to jump into that mess, despite it seeming like a slam dunk. Thanks! Tbqh, they kept the price up far better than I expected haha Also, allow me to share this little trading anecdote. On 4/3, $AI had been surging for days without any true catalyst other than Bill Gates and others calling for a pause on advanced AI development or something like that. Figured it had to cool off a bit so I picked up a 4/29 1.35P and set a Limit for 2.10 which I planned to revisit in the coming days. Well, the next morning an investment firm put out a hit piece on $AI attacking their accounting practices. I was in a meeting that ended at 9:30. I get out of the meeting to see the stock price tanking and rush to cancel my limit but market open hits and the limit is triggered instantly. Normally, I would never complain about 56% profit, but I had to then watch as the price plummeted and the put soared to the 8.40 range at one point. Brutal. Ah well, such is trading and I probably would have sold much sooner than 8.40 anyways lol
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Apr 12, 2023 18:23
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poisonpill posted:I’ve got about $2k to gamble away into nothing by the end of the year. What’s the goon approved moonshot option play? You need to invest it by the end of the year or you want your long-shot return by the end of the year
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Apr 12, 2023 19:21
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Invest by EOY, the long shot return has no time period
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Apr 12, 2023 20:12
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poisonpill posted:I’ve got about $2k to gamble away into nothing by the end of the year. What’s the goon approved moonshot option play? How would you feel about gambling on ALPS and its 35% dividend?
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Apr 12, 2023 20:20
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Comedy options include NDRA, SOFI, RYCEY, RIVN. BOAT is probably a bad choice CCJ might actually be a strong play I'll provide zero technical analysis, you'll have to guess and we can all find out how you did in a few years
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Apr 12, 2023 20:31
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Hadlock posted:Comedy options include NDRA, SOFI, RYCEY, RIVN. BOAT is probably a bad choice Weren't goons a surprisingly large shareholder of NDRA, collectively, and everyone sold when the thread went, "Wait, what the gently caress?"
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Apr 12, 2023 20:38
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Red posted:Weren't goons a surprisingly large shareholder of NDRA, collectively, and everyone sold when the thread went, "Wait, what the gently caress?" I think it was almost enough to vote someone onto the board wasn't it?
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Apr 12, 2023 21:29
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Red posted:Weren't goons a surprisingly large shareholder of NDRA, collectively, and everyone sold when the thread went, "Wait, what the gently caress?" Was there a discord server or something where somebody tallied up all the shares goons owned? Just wondering how you would even begin to know how many shares goons had.
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Apr 12, 2023 21:44
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Posts in this very thread for how many shares each had lol
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Apr 12, 2023 21:47
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