Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

JesustheDarkLord posted:

I've thought about it a lot and have ideas, but I really can't come up with a platform that would make the Democrats competitive in Tennessee.

Split the state into 3 states so that eastern Tennesse, Nashville, and Memphis no longer have to pretend they have anything to do with each other anymore.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Gumball Gumption posted:

I'm skeptical that published manifestos actually do much inspiration. You don't have a lot of copy cats of people like Michael Dorner or Kazinski, incredibly famous manifestos read by a lot of people. And shooters like Hale are just emotional babbling that the shooters seem to come into naturally, no real inspiration needed except themselves.

I thought that was Worf for a moment and was frantically googling to see what I'd missed

g0del
Jan 9, 2001



Fun Shoe

Tiny Timbs posted:

I didn't mean now. These water rights negotiations are short-term solutions to a problem that will inevitably get much worse over the next couple of decades. How does the federal government come up with an egalitarian solution when we're not arguing about lawns vs. agriculture but about the existence of any water that isn't trucked in?
Grow food somewhere else with more water. This isn't the Atacama desert, there's some water here - we even get rain sometimes. There's plenty of water (even in current drought conditions) for the people if you're not using most of it for alfafa and almonds and whatever the Saudis are growing and shipping across the ocean.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
Reminds me of the same drat problem in Australia, farmers would literally drain the Murray dry if they could to grow water-intensive crops in literal desert. The only solution is to tell them to gently caress off and change to a viable business model. Lawns, showers and golf courses are an incrementalist red herring.

JesustheDarkLord
May 22, 2006

#VolsDeep
Lipstick Apathy

PostNouveau posted:

Split the state into 3 states so that eastern Tennesse, Nashville, and Memphis no longer have to pretend they have anything to do with each other anymore.

West Tennessee and East Tennessee are great and I will die on this hill. There is also a Middle Tennessee

Leon Sumbitches
Mar 27, 2010

Dr. Leon Adoso Sumbitches (prounounced soom-'beh-cheh) (born January 21, 1935) is heir to the legendary Adoso family oil fortune.





g0del posted:

Grow food somewhere else with more water. This isn't the Atacama desert, there's some water here - we even get rain sometimes. There's plenty of water (even in current drought conditions) for the people if you're not using most of it for alfafa and almonds and whatever the Saudis are growing and shipping across the ocean.

You're absolutely right, there's no problem with growing food, just not on the industrial scale where the cost is externalized to produce cheap crops like you say

Indigenous people grew food out of the desert for a hell of a long time before colonizers steamrolled the west, and it's a tradition that is seeing a revival in the face of massive public health crises in the Navajo nation specifically.

https://www.eater.com/2018/10/17/17990098/navajo-nation-food-sovereignty-native-american-cuisine-arizona

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Leon Sumbitches posted:

You're absolutely right, there's no problem with growing food, just not on the industrial scale where the cost is externalized to produce cheap crops like you say

Indigenous people grew food out of the desert for a hell of a long time before colonizers steamrolled the west, and it's a tradition that is seeing a revival in the face of massive public health crises in the Navajo nation specifically.

https://www.eater.com/2018/10/17/17990098/navajo-nation-food-sovereignty-native-american-cuisine-arizona

Partly through massive irrigation projects (for pre-industrial technologies at least) which is another reason why just cutting off agricultural water entirely isn't necessarily a winner too. The Gila River Reservation just got its water rights back after being cut off for a century, and it's a big change financially and culturally for the Pima living there.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/native-american-tribe-pima-indians-taking-back-water-180981542/

Though that doesn't change the general principles of it. Even in a forever drought ( which from what I last heard climate change models suggest that won't really be the case in the Southwest US), agricultural water is the only thing that's truly unsustainable, so stopping dumb poo poo like industrial rice and cotton farms in the desert is absolutely the key to focing it.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Leon Sumbitches posted:

You're absolutely right, there's no problem with growing food, just not on the industrial scale where the cost is externalized to produce cheap crops like you say

Indigenous people grew food out of the desert for a hell of a long time before colonizers steamrolled the west, and it's a tradition that is seeing a revival in the face of massive public health crises in the Navajo nation specifically.

https://www.eater.com/2018/10/17/17990098/navajo-nation-food-sovereignty-native-american-cuisine-arizona

That does remind me there's genocide levels of crisis going on with First Nations reservations for the last few years (even before covid) that no one's talking about apparently.

Leon Sumbitches
Mar 27, 2010

Dr. Leon Adoso Sumbitches (prounounced soom-'beh-cheh) (born January 21, 1935) is heir to the legendary Adoso family oil fortune.





Ghost Leviathan posted:

That does remind me there's genocide levels of crisis going on with First Nations reservations for the last few years (even before covid) that no one's talking about apparently.

It's meant to remind us all. The original attempted genocides continue through each generation via ripple effects.

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


TheGreyGhost posted:

I mean, CA residential water usage per capita is flat or dropping pretty much everywhere in state, and the water restrictions were extremely painful to the people they should be. There are infrastructure steps that should be taken in state (wastewater recycling is nonexistent in LA county for example), but we basically all have to take the hit for Ag whenever things dry out. AZ hasn’t done that at all and insists on building awful suburbs and wrote their insane building codes so that a huge chunk of residences being built can get around proving durable water supplies. Keep in mind, Arizona had a shitload of aquifers that are essentially privatized Saudi water welfare, and California’s shipping of almonds and alfalfa are a massive problem that essentially dwarf all residential usage in the state. Like, Arizona is correct in stating people need water, but the fundamental problems can be summarized as “we probably shouldn’t grow things in Arizona”, “we need to stop exporting water-intensive crops from California”, and “tell the boomers to stop with the loving lawns”.

Also worth noting that there are parts of CA/AZ Ag that are objectively good and should be supported. You don’t have vegetables in the winter without them so keep in mind that the actual low hanging fruit is to find ways to make it fundamentally untenable to turn water into almonds/pistachios/alfalfa first.

Is growing FOOD wasting water?

Build DAMS NOT TRAINS





(Central valley heads know)

Devils Avocado
Mar 25, 2009
I moved to Knoxville after being born and raised in Houston a few years ago, and while Texas conservatives are as cruel and corrupt as the day is long, conservatives in Tennessee are just plain backwards

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

JesustheDarkLord posted:

I've thought about it a lot and have ideas, but I really can't come up with a platform that would make the Democrats competitive in Tennessee.

I'd really appreciate your going into more detail here. Who are the powerbrokers and the major extant demographics in Tennessee?

Devils Avocado
Mar 25, 2009

Discendo Vox posted:

I'd really appreciate your going into more detail here. Who are the powerbrokers and the major extant demographics in Tennessee?

While I can’t speak of the ins and outs of the state political scene like a native. I will point out that less than three years ago there was still bitter fighting about the removal of a bust of KKK founder and Confederate war criminal Nathan Bedford Forrest from the capital rotunda. The controversy was only put to rest when the state agreed to also remove a bust of genuine American hero and son of Tennessee Admiral David Farragut who was strict unionist and supreme commander of the Union Navy.

FCKGW
May 21, 2006

g0del posted:

Grow food somewhere else with more water. This isn't the Atacama desert, there's some water here - we even get rain sometimes. There's plenty of water (even in current drought conditions) for the people if you're not using most of it for alfafa and almonds and whatever the Saudis are growing and shipping across the ocean.

CA's Central Valley is one of the most fertile and productive places in the world to grow food. We will never stop growing food there.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Google Jeb Bush posted:

lawns are a red herring

they're a particularly visible and annoying red herring, but correctly abolishing every green lawn (and every golf course) in Phoenix wouldn't move the needle much

it's agriculture that's the problem

In California a good number of farms have unlimited water rights dating back to the 1800’s. I talked to the drip irrigation people and these farmers have no incentive to conserve water. Also there is little to no rain catchment on buildings.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

brugroffil posted:

Is growing FOOD wasting water?

Build DAMS NOT TRAINS





(Central valley heads know)

Worst train route ever.

Incremental improvements on the Coast Starlight route would have been cheaper and actually useful.

I know Victorville is THE cool new vacation spot but the existing route does pass some useful destinations.

Zachack
Jun 1, 2000




Gatts posted:

Ah. Cost. Right.

Just to make sure you understand what you've been told by others, environmental damage is a cost, tearing up infrastructure to (per your original question) triple-plumb a lot of the areas near the ocean has fairly huge energy and resource costs, redirecting engineers, construction, regulators to focus on desal vs IPR/SWA/DPR or just plain old conservation is a cost, etc.

The Saudi approach seems reasonable because they use slave labor, likely give negative shits about environmental impact, are not a democracy (regular people like going to the beach), etc.

Zachack fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Apr 12, 2023

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Lol. Make him squirm!

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1645947361770758148?t=i0dpwVeIZoKWl8_icFjrvQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/O_Danny_Boyy/status/1645975555685187584

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
This is the first time Tucker's constipated-and-confused look actually makes perfect sense.

:kstarehair:

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Nuclear warming as in like.... Nuclear winter? From a global nuclear war?

I am so confused

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

cr0y posted:

Nuclear warming as in like.... Nuclear winter? From a global nuclear war?

I am so confused

Make your choice of "saying mean things to Russia causes needless nuclear escalation" or "Iran is looking to build the bomb and hold the world hostage" or whatever else it might be. He hasn't really thought it through, and it certainly lives compatibly in his head with how America needs a bigger, more beautiful nuclear arsenal unshackled by international arms control treaties. Those are for not-America.

It's the same "liberals and RINOS are the real warhawks" he rode when he was promising to bomb more civilians than Obama or trying to ramp up to open war with Iran.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1645954122628079616

Tim Scott is an interesting potential candidate. I spent some time studying his political base in SC awhile back, and he's very well established in the party apparatus there- I don't understand why he would seriously pursue the presidency.

He is relatively competent and sophisticated in conventional backroom politics, and has staked out a really efficacious powerbase in business and church in SC. He's not, to my knowledge, a populist firebrand- he's got major backing through Seacoast, the networked megachurch near Charleston, which is, well, a conservative megachurch, but not one of the further out there right wing ones. He's known for offering up an insufficient, but way-further-than-other-Republicans police reform bill, which is pretty much the only place he's broken the party line. He's someone who recognizes and operates culture war issues only as a means to supporting his business backers.

The announcement of a presidential exploratory committee likely indicates he has at least some networked support from "moderate" business paleocons and the more sophisticated religious right. but, well...

He's black, he's not a visible psychopath, and as his recent SotU response indicates, a well-coached but not particularly striking or skilled speaker. I think he'd struggle to generate R turnout. That's even leaving Trump out of the equation.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Apr 12, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
The Society of Family Planning performed the first major study of abortion in America post-Roe.

A lot of expected outcomes, but a few surprising ones. The actual impact on total abortions was much lower than expected. It didn't actually reduce the total amount of abortions significantly, but it did make it much more expensive and inconvenient to get an abortion for tens of thousands of people.

- In December 2022, there were about 5,000 fewer abortions than in the months pre-Dobbs decision. That is a decline of about 6%.

- Telehealth appointments for abortion pills by mail skyrocketed during the same period (over a 76% increase from pre-Dobbs).

- A majority of people who were seeking an abortion that lived in a state that banned or severely restricted abortion were able to travel to a different state to get it done.

- A large chunk of the remaining people likely got an abortion via telemedicine or some other way, but there were several thousand that they have no data for and it is unclear if they were able to get an abortion or ended up carrying the pregnancy to term.

- Ironically, Florida experienced a surge of thousands of additional abortions as people from other states in the South with stricter laws flocked to Florida to get abortions. This may change if Florida implements its new 6-week abortion ban and shortens the time down from the current 16-week limit.

- Texas and Georgia saw enormous drops in abortions.

- Other states with looser abortion laws that are near states with stricter bans saw large increases. Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Illinois, and Michigan saw large increases.

quote:

Over 66,000 People Couldn’t Get An Abortion In Their Home State After Dobbs

A few weeks ago, Jessica Marchbank got a call from a woman whose abortion had just been canceled. The woman had driven more than two hours from Louisville, Kentucky, to Indianapolis, leaving three children at home. “She’s crying, saying, ‘How am I going to make this work?’” said Marchbank, who is the state programs officer at All-Options Pregnancy Resource Center in Bloomington, Indiana. “She barely had the gas to get home that day.”

Marchbank has talked to hundreds of people who want an abortion each month since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Her organization helps provide abortion funding for women who live in or are traveling to Indiana. Before the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, All-Options would typically help about 70 patients per month; after Dobbs, it jumped to closer to 70 per week. And as the call volume increased, Marchbank’s job has gotten exponentially harder. Clinics across Indiana have weeks-long waits and patients there are legally required to make two trips to the clinic. Some choose to drive to Illinois, where they only have to visit the clinic once.

In the end, the woman from Louisville went home and scheduled a separate, 10-hour round trip journey to Chicago. “A lot of people are just driving up to Chicago,” Marchbank said. “Somehow, it ends up being easier.”

Tens of thousands of Americans navigated similar complications as they sought abortions in the six months following the Dobbs decision. Around 66,510 people were unable to receive a legal abortion in their home state between July and December of 2022, according to a data set shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight by #WeCount, a national research project led by the Society of Family Planning, a nonprofit that supports research on abortion and contraception. 1 That number includes more than 43,830 people who were unable to receive an abortion because their home state had banned the procedure, and an additional 22,680 whose home states restricted or reduced access to abortion — a list that includes Arizona, South Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, North Dakota and Indiana.

A FiveThirtyEight analysis of the #WeCount data shows that since July 2022, the number of abortions have spiked dramatically in states like Illinois, a pattern that suggests people in states where abortion is banned are driving hundreds or even thousands of miles to reach the nearest state where abortion remains legal. Of the 66,510 people who couldn’t get an abortion near home, an estimated 35,330 seem to have traveled to obtain one. But the data also shows 31,180 people were seemingly unable to get a legal abortion at all. We don’t know whether those people remained pregnant, or got an abortion some other way.

All told, the #WeCount data, plus additional data gathered by FiveThirtyEight from state health departments, abortion providers and abortion funds, shows that there has been both a reduction in the total number of abortions and a reshuffling in the location and methods of abortion in the months since the Dobbs decision. The data also highlights that, while providers and advocates have tried to adapt to these changes — opening new clinics, helping to fund people crossing state borders and shifting toward telehealth — the Supreme Court’s ruling has made those solutions precarious. For example, abortion access in the South now heavily depends on Florida — a state that is poised to pass a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. And a recent court ruling in Texas invalidating the government approval of one of the two drugs used in medication abortion could seriously hamstring legal telehealth services and drastically reduce capacity at in-person clinics as well.

This data isn’t a perfect real-time snapshot of how abortion numbers are changing — it includes data from 77 percent of the country’s providers, while data from the clinics that didn’t report is an estimate.2 The researchers noted that numbers may shift in the future as they get more data — in fact, some numbers were revised between the first wave of the research published last fall and this new report. Meanwhile, many people are also ordering abortion pills online, through international pharmacies or groups like Aid Access, which ship medication abortion to places where it’s illegal. These abortions are not counted in #WeCount’s data, and they could make up a significant number of abortions — in addition to the ones that happen within the health care system.

But the overall trends are clear. “Based on the magnitude of what we’re seeing, we should be confident concluding that [abortion] bans have been a tremendous disruption,” said Caitlin Myers, a professor of economics at Middlebury College who was not involved in the research, but reviewed a copy of the report at FiveThirtyEight’s request. “While many people are finding a way to travel, it appears that a very substantial number of people aren’t.”

The shock of the Supreme Court decision, and the cascade of state bans that followed, had a big impact on abortion access across the country. Dr. Alison Norris, a professor of epidemiology at Ohio State University and a co-chair of the #WeCount project, told us that she had initially hoped that clinics would adapt and abortion numbers would quickly rebound. But that has not happened. Instead, each month between July and December had 5,197 fewer abortions on average compared to the average number of abortions in the two months immediately preceding the Dobbs decision.

The bulk of those reductions came from states that had completely banned the procedure. These states often neighbor each other, creating large regions of the country where abortion can only be accessed through arduous and expensive travel. The Chicago Abortion Fund, a nonprofit that helps patients cover the costs of abortion nationwide, told us that their average grant for wraparound services — which includes travel expenses and related costs like childcare — rose from $120 pre-Dobbs to $375 after.

States like Illinois, Colorado and Kansas saw large increases in patients, many coming from out of state. According to preliminary data from the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment, 28 percent of abortions in the state were performed on nonresidents, double what it was in 2021. Trust Women, a clinic in Wichita, Kansas, reported that, post-Dobbs, three-quarters of its patients came from states that ban abortion. The #WeCount data shows that patients are traveling to the nearest states that still allow abortion, and some clinics say this is happening in such numbers that residents of states where it is legal are having trouble getting their own appointments.

Just two months after CHOICES, a Memphis-based reproductive health organization, opened a new clinic in Carbondale, a city in southern Illinois, 98.5 percent of patients at the clinic were coming to Illinois from a state with an abortion ban, according to Jennifer Pepper, the group’s president and CEO. “When you're sitting in front of a patient [who] had to drive 12 hours one way to get to your clinic — it makes it real in a whole different way, the way these laws are impacting people,” Pepper said.

#WeCount data shows that, nationally, the number of monthly abortions rose a little from July to August, only to fall every month through November — then rise again in December. Under normal circumstances, that pattern would make no sense. Because more pregnancies are conceived during the winter holidays, abortion numbers tend to rise in the spring and decrease later in the year. But in a post-Dobbs world, so many people are traveling for abortions — and clinics in destination states are so strapped for appointments — that the numbers are much more volatile. Abortion providers across the country told us that they’re no longer seeing seasonal trends in demand for abortion, because their appointment calendars are always full.

One big impact of those fully-booked calendars seems to be an increase in the number of patients who cannot receive their abortions until the second trimester, at which point abortions are more complicated, more expensive and even less likely to be available close to home. The preliminary Colorado data show later abortions on the rise, with 487 abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy last year, up from 170 in 2021. “People wind up waiting for so long, by the time they get to their appointment, they're too far along to be seen in the first-trimester clinics,” said Dr. Warren Hern, a Colorado abortion provider who specializes in abortions later in pregnancy.

Patients who live in states that still allow abortion and are facing long delays seem to be turning to a relatively new option in abortion access: medication abortions from virtual clinics. For people in the first 11 weeks of pregnancy, getting abortion pills this way can be as simple as filling out a form and responding to a few text messages, or doing a quick video call with a clinician. The medication typically arrives in less than a week.

The #WeCount researchers found that the average monthly number of abortions prescribed this way increased by 76 percent between the pre-Dobbs period and post-Dobbs period, and that’s not including patients using telehealth services provided by brick-and-mortar clinics. This is part of a pattern of increased pill use spurred by the growing rise of telehealth, which accelerated during the pandemic. By 2020, medication abortion made up half of all the abortions in the U.S., according to the Guttmacher Institute. Now, those pills are providing people with wider options at a time when abortion access is contracting.

But those options are under threat, too. On April 7, a Texas judge issued a ruling that suspends the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of mifepristone, one of the two drugs used in medication abortion. It’s not clear yet what effects this ruling will have or when. It’s not scheduled to go into effect until Friday and a different judge has already issued a competing ruling blocking the FDA from pulling mifepristone off the market. Whatever happens in the courts, this news is likely to increase confusion among the public about what is and is not legal, something researchers and advocates have told us affected abortion numbers long before these rulings.

“Sometimes we have to break things down for callers because they will either say, ‘Well I can’t get an abortion in Indiana because there is a ban,’ or sometimes they’ll think they’re not allowed to leave the state for an abortion,” Marchbank said. That uncertainty is visible in the #WeCount data, where we see the number of abortions falling in states where abortion bans were enacted and then blocked by courts — such as Indiana — and in some states where abortion remained technically legal, but highly restricted — such as Georgia. These patterns demonstrate that states don’t have to fully ban abortion to drastically reduce the number of procedures or to make long-distance travel the more appealing option.

And this creates big vulnerabilities in an already weakened system. Depending on how the courts and the FDA respond to last week’s ruling, access to legal telehealth abortion services could be threatened. Meanwhile, in-person patients are increasingly reliant on a handful of close-to-home abortion hubs where demand is increasing. One ban or severe restriction in a key state could easily isolate large swaths of the country. Travel complications and clinic wait times would increase. All of the trends visible in the #WeCount data would come together and people seeking abortions would struggle to get one — or not get one at all.

That’s exactly the scenario that could happen if Florida cuts off access. Surrounded by states that have already banned or heavily restricted abortion, it was one of a handful that saw significant increases in the last six months of 2022 despite having onerous restrictions of its own — like two mandatory appointments with a 24-hour waiting period in between. But Florida is poised to pass a six-week ban similar to the ones that nearly halved abortions in Texas in 2021 and Georgia last summer. That law will likely turn a state that saw one of the biggest post-Dobbs upticks in abortion into yet another place where a long drive — or pills bought on the gray market — are the only options for people who want an abortion.

“[The six-week ban will have] devastating consequences,” said Amber Gavin, vice president of advocacy and operations with A Woman’s Choice, a network of abortion clinics that has a location in Jacksonville, Florida. “Not just for Floridians, but for everyone in the southeast.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/post-dobbs-abortion-access-66000/

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Apr 12, 2023

deoju
Jul 11, 2004

All the pieces matter.
Nap Ghost

cr0y posted:

I am so confused
He is conflating two things he's heard people say are important. His brain is mush, that's all it is.

GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

Discendo Vox posted:

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1645954122628079616

He's black, he's not a visible psychopath, and as his recent SotU response indicates, a well-coached but not particularly striking or skilled speaker. I think he'd struggle to generate R turnout. That's even leaving Trump out of the equation.

Scott has said he isn't running again in 2028. He's not under re-election in 24, so why not just go for it if it can't actually help you and you can sell some books through a money laundering schemeget your voice out there to the people?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

GoutPatrol posted:

Scott has said he isn't running again in 2028. He's not under re-election in 24, so why not just go for it if it can't actually help you and you can sell some books through a money laundering schemeget your voice out there to the people?

Scott's not particularly hard up for money or influence and his brand would if anything be hurt by a national campaign. I think he might be a considered alternate if Trump actually loses his base/a path to nomination.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
The exploratory committee: "We've come to the conclusion that...you're black. So no."

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
Being an also-ran in a primary campaign is a pretty good way to get your name in the news and get some speeches. And I don't think any Black Republican, even the genuinely insane ones we've had in recent years, is particularly confident they have a chance at any more than that.

Wheeljack
Jul 12, 2021
There are all sorts of strategic reasons to run for president besides "I am mostly sure I can win this time." Positioning yourself for a future run, getting your ideas out there in hopes of getting them adopted in the platform or picked up by the other candidates or eventual nominee, becoming prominent enough to get a cabinet post, and, as mentioned, raising your profile for punditry.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
The most important reason to run for President while having no hope of winning is to make a lot of money. This can be done via the regular campaign grift as well as increasing your rates for lobbying and speaking gigs.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Being an also-ran in a primary campaign is a pretty good way to get your name in the news and get some speeches. And I don't think any Black Republican, even the genuinely insane ones we've had in recent years, is particularly confident they have a chance at any more than that.
Herman Cain had pretty good stretch in the lead of the primary he competed in.

Ben Carson too.

silence_kit
Jul 14, 2011

by the sex ghost

FCKGW posted:

CA's Central Valley is one of the most fertile and productive places in the world to grow food. We will never stop growing food there.

Yeah, this. The coastal Californian complaining about farmers never made a lot of sense to me. It just seems like a cultural warfare thing.

Amusingly/paradoxically, coastal Californians implicitly LOVE agriculture in the Central Valley--it gives them the access to the inexpensive, fresh produce that they brag about and get to act snooty about when visiting other areas of the US where the produce might not be as great.

Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT
As a coastal Californian myself my problem has never been w/ the farmers in general, but rather the allocation of water to disproportionately thirsty crops like almonds.

In fact I'd say the culture war resentment is much stronger in the opposite direction, if the signs planted by the 5 in the central valley are any indication

Tarezax fucked around with this message at 09:19 on Apr 12, 2023

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Water rights arguments have always been insane. The Hoover Dam is named after Hoover not because he built it, but because he managed to get the relevant states to make even the slightest progress on water distribution agreements; thus was a prerequisite for the dam to even get started.

silence_kit
Jul 14, 2011

by the sex ghost

Tarezax posted:

As a coastal Californian myself my problem has never been w/ the farmers in general, but rather the allocation of water to disproportionately thirsty crops like almonds.

In fact I'd say the culture war resentment is much stronger in the opposite direction, if the signs planted by the 5 in the central valley are any indication

Coastal Californians love almonds/almond milk, and all that stuff. They are partially the ones driving the production of the crop but at the same time, they complain about it.

I suspect that the fraction of agriculture in the Central Valley which is almonds vs. other crops is not that huge, and if you quantify the water use to grow 1 kcal of almonds vs. 1 kcal of other crops, it is not that much more. I get the feeling that this is just a manufactured issue which gives coastal Californians an excuse to moralize about how the low class farmers are ruining their state.

Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT
Almonds are much easier to transport and store than fruit, being nuts and all. And all nuts require far more water per pound to produce than fruits and vegetables. No reason you couldn't just grow the dang almonds somewhere where water isn't an issue. And I think the biggest driver of almond consumption is the Chinese market.

Clarste
Apr 15, 2013

Just how many mistakes have you suffered on the way here?

An uncountable number, to be sure.
I'll admit to being an almond-enjoyer, but this whole focus on changing consumer habits rather than focusing on industries who actually have the power to make major changes to production strikes me as exactly what's been happening with climate change and oil companies? "Oh no, the poor little agribusinesses, forced to helplessly follow the whims of the public and definitely not spending billions of dollars lobbying."

Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT
TBH I wonder if the reason these crops are grown in California specifically has more to do with the water rights situation and the availability of migrant farm labor over actual growing conditions of the crop

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Clarste posted:

I'll admit to being an almond-enjoyer, but this whole focus on changing consumer habits rather than focusing on industries who actually have the power to make major changes to production strikes me as exactly what's been happening with climate change and oil companies? "Oh no, the poor little agribusinesses, forced to helplessly follow the whims of the public and definitely not spending billions of dollars lobbying."

That's the entire problem with what we've been taught is an ironclad rule of The Market and the way capitalism- the only society that has ever worked- inherently functions. That multibillion dollar corporations are helpless slaves to the whims of individual consumers, something can only exist if there is demand for it- and if it doesn't exist, obviously it's because there is no demand for it, and to force people to start or stop making a product for any reason is unfathomable harm and waste and restriction of freedom.

By now even everyone here probably at least understands the problems with that, but it's still what's been hammered into almost everyone in the world outside a handful of pariah states for as long as living memory.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Tarezax posted:

TBH I wonder if the reason these crops are grown in California specifically has more to do with the water rights situation and the availability of migrant farm labor over actual growing conditions of the crop

Water rights and farming decisions made in the past. It takes 5-12 years for an Almond tree to start producing almonds, then that tree is productive for about 25 more years. So an entire cycle for a grove, assuming you planted everything at the same time, is 30 to 37 years. Almonds were first brought by monks from the Mediterranean in like 1850 or so and commercial farming started late in the 1800s, but didn't actually take off until the 1900s due to issues with the climate and planted varieties.

Basically people started growing Almonds during one of California's wet period, and largely possess water rights dating back over a century or more. Since only need about 4-5 commercial life cycles of an almond tree to get back to the first farms, they were largely an already established crop by the time the real water wars due to climate change began to pick up. I have no idea how many new Almond groves are suddenly sprouting up, but I have a feeling that the water requirements and the long gestation time mean that the newest farms are probably 60 or so years old.

In the future, Almond farming is almost certainly going to migrate to a more reasonable location. However there's a long rear end turn around from when it starts to when it's fully established. At the same time even if nobody planted a new tree in California from now on, we'd be getting shitloads of California Almonds through 2055.

Gyges fucked around with this message at 10:55 on Apr 12, 2023

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply