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HonorableTB posted:Deliberately targeting and downing a NATO plane with 30 NATO troops on it seems like a great on-ramp to escalation over a single pilot fighter where the pilot can eject. The Soviets shot down a civilian 747 with a sitting US Senator on it at the height of the 1980s cold war nuclear tension and that didn't cause WW3.
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Apr 13, 2023 20:07
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Popete posted:A Korean airliner was shot down by a Soviet fighter during the height of the Cold War and it didn't result in nuclear war. There has been a number of incidents Hainan Island Incident over the years and it's never resulted in much of anything. South Korea is not a NATO member Not saying this would've triggered it if they were, but there's a reason South Korea couldn't start nuclear war even if they wanted to A better example I guess is mh17
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Apr 13, 2023 20:08
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HonorableTB posted:Deliberately targeting and downing a NATO plane with 30 NATO troops on it seems like a great on-ramp to escalation over a single pilot fighter where the pilot can eject. This isn't the first time a Russian missile has misfired when launched, correct? How bad is their quality control now?
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Apr 13, 2023 20:08
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:The Soviets shot down a civilian 747 with a sitting US Senator on it at the height of the 1980s cold war nuclear tension and that didn't cause WW3. That airliner was in soviet airspace over a restricted flight zone before it was shot down, the British plane was in international waters. Quite different
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Apr 13, 2023 20:09
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Immediately after the aircraft was downed there would be communications between NATO and Russian military leadership to determine if it was truly intentional, it wouldn't just default to launching nukes.
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Apr 13, 2023 20:12
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HonorableTB posted:Deliberately targeting and downing a NATO plane with 30 NATO troops on it seems like a great on-ramp to escalation over a single pilot fighter where the pilot can eject. And so what, how is that connected to nuclear war in your mind? I read that whole article, and it doesn't come within the earshot of Clancychat masturbation that your post did pull off.
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Apr 13, 2023 20:12
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Note the subdued response to the weapons release when it happened. Everyone involved was quite quick to make it go away. Had that missile hit, the response would have been a skirmish, but again, everyone involved is interested in not escalating. There would have been rows over it, but mostly diplomatic skuffles and perhaps more support to Ukraine, but that's about it.
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Apr 13, 2023 20:23
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:The Soviets shot down a civilian 747 with a sitting US Senator on it at the height of the 1980s cold war nuclear tension and that didn't cause WW3. It's the famous Salami slicing principle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o861Ka9TtT4
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Apr 13, 2023 20:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:And so what, how is that connected to nuclear war in your mind? I read that whole article, and it doesn't come within the earshot of Clancychat masturbation that your post did pull off. Deliberately shooting down a crewed NATO military craft would not go from shootdown directly to nukes. There would be escalatory steps in between, but those escalatory steps would not be possible without the plane being shot down to begin with. 30 military deaths in a deliberately targeted action in international waters by a hostile nation would absolutely demand a response of some kind and it's at THAT point that the path to nuclear escalation begins. None of it would be possible without that kind of antagonistic aggression in the first place. Would cooler heads prevail? Probably. I'd like to hope so. My formal training and education in this area tells me that historically, cooler heads have prevailed, but that same training and education also highlights how precarious that knife-edge balance is whenever it happens (eg, Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer 87, and the like). But without that shootdown there would be nothing for cooler heads to prevail over. It would represent a fundamentally different change in hostilities. This incident should be looked at in the same way as we look at Able Archer 87 and Stanislav Petrov: "Holy poo poo that was close, look how narrowly we avoided a hot war" The difference between this and when Turkey shot down a Russian jet is that there was enough plausible deniability for everyone involved to get off without further escalation and, unfortunately, that the incident was in connection to the Syrian war which the West just does not care as much about as they do a hot war in Europe. The jet was in Turkish territory, it was a single pilot craft where the pilot could eject and no loss of life, and an attack by Turkey/NATO on Russia wouldn't trigger article 5 so it's a fundamentally different set of conditions and circumstances vs downing a NATO plane in international waters in a deliberately hostile action and only being saved by a missile misfire. A further example of how the circumstances are different would be in examining the battle between the US forces and Wagner in which upwards of 400 Wagnerites were casualties in a single engagement that was cleared with the Russian command prior to the start of fighting. It's all about the plausible deniability; in realpolitik the US engaged the Russian military in a kinetic action and it resulted in multiple hundreds of Russian military casualties (given the true relationship of Wagner vis a vis the RUAF), with no further escalation. It's just a fundamentally different situation and circumstance, and the consequences would be just as fundamentally different. HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 20:50 on Apr 13, 2023 |
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Apr 13, 2023 20:42
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HonorableTB posted:Deliberately shooting down a crewed NATO military craft would not go from shootdown directly to nukes. That's how you wrote your post, though. Do you think like a dozen posters are just randomly yelling at you?
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Apr 13, 2023 20:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That's how you wrote your post, though. Do you think like a dozen posters are just randomly yelling at you? That's fair, and a valid point. I could have structured my post better. I just forget not everyone is in my own head and isn't privy to my thinking so I forget to inform people about the logical progression in my thoughts and just jump from start to finish and wonder why nobody else is understanding what I write. My mistake
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Apr 13, 2023 20:57
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Brown Moses posted:From the NYT reporting. It's a 21 year old trying to impress a bunch of teenagers on a gaming server. It's the basic MMORPG guild leader dynamic. Something interesting that I haven't seen many people comment on is journalists obviously tracked Teixeira down first, and got to his home before the US government. Possibly hours before them? Thats pretty damning for the work of the NSA or whoever was responsible for tracking this guy down, given they hopefully had access to far more data and far more people to throw at the problem than the New York Times.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:05
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Yeah, we knew the ID the night before, and an NYT reporter went to his house in the morning, then the FBI showed up. They didn't tell the FBI, so they must have figured that out themselves. I'm guessing the got the info from Discord as they guy was the server admin.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:10
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Brown Moses posted:Yeah, we knew the ID the night before, and an NYT reporter went to his house in the morning, then the FBI showed up. They didn't tell the FBI, so they must have figured that out themselves. I'm guessing the got the info from Discord as they guy was the server admin. I'll picture this as the NYT reporter driving out of the suburb in their Prius as a fully loaded convoy with MRAPs rolls in past them.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:15
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I visualize the NYT reporter and the collection feds participating in an elaborate humorous race sequence with lots of slapstick hijnx, beginning with a banana in a Hummer tailpipe and ending with the reporter and 12 fully armored agents all trying to squeeze through his bedroom door at once.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:22
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https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1646598529610141697?t=WD3CYmwKHwKh-MoBLcbKbw&s=19 I hope everyone in his dogshit national guard unit gets put onto an Alaskan island to watch walrus migrations
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Apr 13, 2023 21:23
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Brown Moses posted:Yeah, we knew the ID the night before, and an NYT reporter went to his house in the morning, then the FBI showed up. They didn't tell the FBI, so they must have figured that out themselves. I'm guessing the got the info from Discord as they guy was the server admin. So this guy is the admin, or the leaker, or both?
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Apr 13, 2023 21:24
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There were news choppers circling the house before arrest. Anyway, more on localability of stuff: https://mobile.twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646592080293122067
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Apr 13, 2023 21:25
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My Eve Online trading operation had better opsec than this person who was leaking documents.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:30
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Rust Martialis posted:So this guy is the admin, or the leaker, or both? Both, as the above post shows they could link photos to his parents house.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:35
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Blut posted:
To be fair, if everything is by the book NSA/FBI/whoever probably has to get warrants and have procedures in place to take an action.
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Apr 13, 2023 21:39
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Mooseontheloose posted:To be fair, if everything is by the book NSA/FBI/whoever probably has to get warrants and have procedures in place to take an action. I am kinda wondering if "NYT published an article identifying the suspect, and it's the sort of crime where fleeing overseas is a significant concern" is enough to get a warrant....
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Apr 13, 2023 21:59
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The feds might have been hanging back and watching the him to see if he'd do any more incriminating stuff, until the NYT rolled up and proved to him that he'd been ID'ed.
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Apr 13, 2023 22:20
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No it's definitely this Mooseontheloose posted:To be fair, if everything is by the book NSA/FBI/whoever probably has to get warrants and have procedures in place to take an action. FBI can't just pre-arrest someone And basically the counter-intelligence environment is now this, https://twitter.com/mjgault/status/1646622546022760454
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Apr 13, 2023 22:21
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MeinPanzer posted:He did it to ascend to posting Valhalla. Apparently “posting Valhalla” is Leavenworth, Kansas.
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Apr 13, 2023 22:33
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Ogmius815 posted:Apparently “posting Valhalla” is Leavenworth, Kansas. quote:Garland’s description indicates that Teixeira will be facing charges under 18 U.S.C. 793, also known as the Espionage Act. It criminalizes the unauthorized removal, retention, and transmission of closely held documents related to the national defense that could be used to harm the United States or aid a foreign adversary. Each such document would be its own charge; a conviction carries a penalty of up to ten years in prison per count.
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Apr 13, 2023 22:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/13/us/documents-leak-pentagon/3c61ae8a-ebf5-5bd4-b805-43c9c701df5d They don't make it clear if it's consecutive or concurrent...
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Apr 13, 2023 22:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/13/us/documents-leak-pentagon/3c61ae8a-ebf5-5bd4-b805-43c9c701df5d It's my feeling he is going to be made an example of. US foreign policy has defintely shifted towards Russia lately with this war (in the near term), and with a longer view of the US vs China over Taiwan looming in the years to come, if I were the US government I would find a lot of benefits in making an example of military allied intelligence leaks re: Ukraine if I'm also looking at the future and considering what the US may need in Taiwan should China decide to act
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Apr 13, 2023 22:45
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Likely the entire chain of command is going to be turbo hosed there. The fact the guy was able to take highly sensitive information repeatedly for a long period of time is a massive failure in security and oversight. A bunch of people are going to be forced to fall on their swords there. What is just as concerning is this idiot had the access and ability to let poo poo walk out for the lulz on Discord. Makes to wonder how many others are doing the same thing elsewhere and giving that to others?
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Apr 13, 2023 22:49
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Djarum posted:Likely the entire chain of command is going to be turbo hosed there. The fact the guy was able to take highly sensitive information repeatedly for a long period of time is a massive failure in security and oversight. A bunch of people are going to be forced to fall on their swords there. Yeah, that's where my mind is at. How many idiots got gifted steam bux or whatever for intel. The future is so stupid.
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Apr 13, 2023 22:54
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Djarum posted:What is just as concerning is this idiot had the access and ability to let poo poo walk out for the lulz on Discord. Makes to wonder how many others are doing the same thing elsewhere and giving that to others? This is one of my worries too. This guy was dumb enough to leak to an audience that would re-broadcast it. Who, if anyone, if even able to, is keeping an eye on the ones smart enough not to leak it in a white nationalist discord?
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Apr 13, 2023 22:58
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Djarum posted:Likely the entire chain of command is going to be turbo hosed there. The fact the guy was able to take highly sensitive information repeatedly for a long period of time is a massive failure in security and oversight. A bunch of people are going to be forced to fall on their swords there. That's what SHOULD happen. We'll have to see how it actually shakes out. Any big scandal in the military usually shifts into legendary levels of rear end covering and excuse making in the course of about 48 hours.
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Apr 13, 2023 23:00
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Cocaine Bear posted:Yeah, that's where my mind is at. How many idiots got gifted steam bux or whatever for intel. The future is so stupid. Hearts of Iron IV Mod: to 2024
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Apr 13, 2023 23:16
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Vox Nihili posted:That's what SHOULD happen. We'll have to see how it actually shakes out. Any big scandal in the military usually shifts into legendary levels of rear end covering and excuse making in the course of about 48 hours. Those asses will be so covered that you’ll be able to see the cover from space. It may not do them any good, since it’s a huge embarrassment at literally every level…but that doesn’t mean nobody is going to try!
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Apr 13, 2023 23:19
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OddObserver posted:They don't make it clear if it's consecutive or concurrent... The closest analog is the Walker family spy ring, which leaked a staggering amount of intelligence to the Soviet Union for money. The charges were set up so that except for Walker's son who got a reduced sentence in return for his father's cooperation, all were sent to federal prison for the rest of their lives and 2 of the 3 have since died in prison. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Anthony_Walker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Whitworth
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Apr 13, 2023 23:49
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1646622737580933121 The T-54/55 is a design from World War Two (it's a development of the abortive T-44 design which was a mid-war attempt at a T-34 replacement) that entered production in 1946 and Russia supposedly sold the last of their reserve stock off back in 2012.
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Apr 14, 2023 00:16
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There's a huge concerted propaganda effort to portray T-54/55 tanks as Leopard killers because the old type of barrel they have is better for penetrating armour from a long distance or something. Hundreds of accounts constantly posting about these legendary threaded barrels under every article and tg post about it.
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Apr 14, 2023 00:30
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Paladinus posted:There's a huge concerted propaganda effort to portray T-54/55 tanks as Leopard killers because the old type of barrel they have is better for penetrating armour from a long distance or something. Hundreds of accounts constantly posting about these legendary threaded barrels under every article and tg post about it. The best APFSDS round Russians ever developed for the 100mm doesn't even come close to the penetration of the later 105mm rounds like M900 and DM63 the Ukranian Leopard 1s will likely be firing so that alone is pretty comical. But the funniest thing is that these aren't even the 80s modernized T-55AMs. Good luck killing a Leopard if you can't hit it because your vintage T-55 relies on a 50s vintage optical sight with no laser rangefinder, no computerized fire control system, and instead of thermals you have a first generation night vision system that relies on a giant infrared searchlight.
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Apr 14, 2023 00:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1646622737580933121 Realistically they'll be used as de facto self-propelled artillery, if anything. They can lob a shell 10 miles or so. That's to the extent Russia has any amount of working ammunition for them, anyway.
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Apr 14, 2023 00:49
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ChaseSP posted:The most likely aggressive response would just be blowing away any russian jets in the area that don't immediately leave and daring putin to do something about it. I don't know...30 soldiers is a lot to take from one incidence without a response.
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Apr 14, 2023 01:00
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