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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Iskanders *have* been used. There was actually an "oopsie" a while back on Russia's part where they used one that still had its PENAIDS equipped, suggesting they were cannibalizing their allotment of nuclear-capable missiles to make their quota of war crimes.

But the Kinzhal is effectively an air-launched Iskander, and while it's definitely a hypersonic missile, it's a hack job of one. Still makes things go boom, though.

I wonder if that was in any way related to the reports that came in of KIAs and POWs from Russia's strategic missile forces. IIRC there were a few instances of that happening that were posted in one of the threads here that included photos of the patches from POW uniforms showing that it was a strategic rocket force infantry unit that was assigned to some remote base.

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Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

It seems to me that the usefulness of these new hypersonic wonder-missiles will come down to simple cost efficiency. Say you want to hit target X with a given bomb load. You can hit it with one hypersonic weapon, or for the same price you could hit it with (extremely conservative estimate incoming) ten conventional missiles, each with the same payload as the hypersonic. Even a very good missile defense system would do well to take out, let's say, six of the ten incoming old-school weapons. So you get four times more bang for the ruble with the missiles you've already had in inventory for the last fifty years. This is going to be true whether we're talking about shorter-range missiles such as have been used in Ukraine or full-on WW3-starting ICBMs, although the exact numbers will of course be way different.

CommieGIR posted:

They are largely propaganda weapons.

I agree. They're impressive engineering accomplishments (assuming of course they actually work), but I don't really see what advantage they'd give in an actual shooting war.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Cimber posted:

I'm not so sure about that. Putin is very crafty and good at eliminating rivals. The people who are still around now are absolute yes men and anyone who was able enough to be a challenge to Putin has already been demoted or had an unfortunate window incident.

I'm of the belief that anyone who replaces Putin is not going to have the skills to keep and hold power and would be overthrown by someone outside that circle. Think of Malenkov after Stalin died.

These aren't people who are rivals to putin or in any way are a challenge to Putin, I'm talking about people who are themselves part of Putin's power structure whom he either trusts or already depends on.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Apr 15, 2023

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Powered Descent posted:

It seems to me that the usefulness of these new hypersonic wonder-missiles will come down to simple cost efficiency. Say you want to hit target X with a given bomb load. You can hit it with one hypersonic weapon, or for the same price you could hit it with (extremely conservative estimate incoming) ten conventional missiles, each with the same payload as the hypersonic. Even a very good missile defense system would do well to take out, let's say, six of the ten incoming old-school weapons. So you get four times more bang for the ruble with the missiles you've already had in inventory for the last fifty years. This is going to be true whether we're talking about shorter-range missiles such as have been used in Ukraine or full-on WW3-starting ICBMs, although the exact numbers will of course be way different.

I agree. They're impressive engineering accomplishments (assuming of course they actually work), but I don't really see what advantage they'd give in an actual shooting war.

There are some very scary scenarios as far as hypersonic missiles and carrier groups are concerned. Aegis nets don't do so hot against hypersonic missiles and if you launch enough of them you just aced a carrier. As far as land-based targets go, they would be used similarly to HIMARS if you've got enough of them to throw around to start with* - used for more important than average targets, or for things that specialize in shooting down missiles where you need to get in first with the mostest



*Russia does not

Crab Dad
Dec 28, 2002

behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB


HonorableTB posted:

There are some very scary scenarios as far as hypersonic missiles and carrier groups are concerned. Aegis nets don't do so hot against hypersonic missiles and if you launch enough of them you just aced a carrier. As far as land-based targets go, they would be used similarly to HIMARS if you've got enough of them to throw around to start with* - used for more important than average targets, or for things that specialize in shooting down missiles where you need to get in first with the mostest



*Russia does not

Killing carriers was a red line for Armageddon last I heard. So using them as an example target is silly.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Crab Dad posted:

Killing carriers was a red line for Armageddon last I heard. So using them as an example target is silly.

I didn't pick them for just funsies, it's one of the primary purposes of hypersonic missile design. They're meant to be faster than any kind of missile defense a reasonable peer would have and for Russia that includes aegis networks. I was replying to a poster asking about what scenarios in shooting war a hypersonic would give you an advantage in so I was providing examples.

https://news.usni.org/2021/06/14/mda-u-s-aircraft-carriers-now-at-risk-from-hypersonic-missiles

Crab Dad
Dec 28, 2002

behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB


HonorableTB posted:

I didn't pick them for just funsies, it's one of the primary purposes of hypersonic missile design. They're meant to be faster than any kind of missile defense a reasonable peer would have and for Russia that includes aegis networks. I was replying to a poster asking about what scenarios in shooting war a hypersonic would give you an advantage in so I was providing examples.

https://news.usni.org/2021/06/14/mda-u-s-aircraft-carriers-now-at-risk-from-hypersonic-missiles

Ok now your capital has every Ohio class raining hellfire in on you. Congrats.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Crab Dad posted:

Ok now your capital has every Ohio class raining hellfire in on you. Congrats.

Yeah, pretty much. That carrier group would still absolutely get smoked first though.

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus
You don't need hypersonics to kill a carrier. 1 attack sub will do it.

Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

Didn't mean to start any arguments, and I do appreciate the example of a target class I hadn't considered.

(But yeah, once the carriers are sinking... the details of these missile systems are likely to become irrelevant pretty quickly.)

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

ded posted:

You don't need hypersonics to kill a carrier. 1 attack sub will do it.

Yeah I considered those but I figured a missile would have a better chance than a sub because of destroyers and stuff. All leads to the same conclusion in the end though lol, you sink a carrier and its skydark

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



HonorableTB posted:

Yeah I considered those but I figured a missile would have a better chance than a sub because of destroyers and stuff. All leads to the same conclusion in the end though lol, you sink a carrier and its skydark
This sounds like a great hook for a techno-thriller detective movie when someone uses some other ridiculous thing to sink a carrier but it's in a context where they end up just short of pushing the Button.

Also, Hail Satan

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

ROJO
Jan 14, 2006

Oven Wrangler

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



Nessus posted:

This sounds like a great hook for a techno-thriller detective movie when someone uses some other ridiculous thing to sink a carrier but it's in a context where they end up just short of pushing the Button.

Also, Hail Satan

Thirty years behind us: https://youtu.be/i02gyEu6uA4

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

ded posted:

You don't need hypersonics to kill a carrier. 1 attack sub will do it.

Just take out the fleet supply ships. Its not like they run around escorted or have any defensive capability and noones launching nukes over a few tankers and whatever.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ded posted:

You don't need hypersonics to kill a carrier. 1 attack sub will do it.

Yeah, but the missiles are specifically intended to increase the standoff distance between a carrier group and Taiwan. China's invasion plan relies upon keeping the US from getting close enough to assist

Ajaxify
May 6, 2009

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Action-Bastard
Jan 1, 2008

Hail Ukrain, hail Satan

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1646725541209276417

Deptfordx
Dec 23, 2013

Crab Dad posted:

Killing carriers was a red line for Armageddon last I heard. So using them as an example target is silly.

Crab Dad posted:

Ok now your capital has every Ohio class raining hellfire in on you. Congrats.

Would it though?

It seems reasonable to presume any plausible carrier-killer scenario is going to have China or Russia as the culprit.

Well they have nukes too.

I feel like "Oh we lost a carrier. Welp! Guess it's time to end the world" :shrug: might just inspire second thoughts about your response being to automatically go nuclear.

ChubbyChecker
Mar 25, 2018

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Herman Merman
Jul 6, 2008

Deptfordx posted:

Would it though?

Of course it wouldn't. MAD scenarios are based on the mutual part. If losing a carrier automatically triggers a nuclear exchange, then using them will too.

armpit_enjoyer
Jan 25, 2023

my god. it's full of posts

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Speaking of hypersonic missiles, welcome to the SS-18 page. Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Please don't lump the glory of Ukraine with the Dark Prince.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Deptfordx posted:

Would it though?

It seems reasonable to presume any plausible carrier-killer scenario is going to have China or Russia as the culprit.

Well they have nukes too.

I feel like "Oh we lost a carrier. Welp! Guess it's time to end the world" :shrug: might just inspire second thoughts about your response being to automatically go nuclear.

Its actually fairly interesting question; US being the only country which has meaningful amount of carrier groups to mean jack poo poo on the global scale, how would they respond to losing one? Russia lost Moskva which basically meant pretty much the same thing for their Black Sea operations around Odessa, and didn't go all in with nukes, not even the smaller "tactical" ones.

Also, 666 hail satan.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

I would like to see citations that an attack on a carrier would result in a nuclear response. The Obama, Trump and Biden Nuclear Posture Reviews all pretty much explicitly rule that out, and even the Bush era policy can be interpreted that way if losing the carrier would be consummate with conventional defeat.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



It would take an insane amount of firepower to sink an aircraft carrier unless you caught it at a material condition where it would have all its hatches open. Underway in a higher risk area you have everything below the waterline buttoned up tight and stuff hitting above the waterline isn't going to do poo poo as far as sinking you.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

orange juche posted:

It would take an insane amount of firepower to sink an aircraft carrier unless you caught it at a material condition where it would have all its hatches open. Underway in a higher risk area you have everything below the waterline buttoned up tight and stuff hitting above the waterline isn't going to do poo poo as far as sinking you.

Yeah. Supercarriers with crews on them don't really sink from the kind of damage that non-nuclear weapons would do on them, they have too much compartmentalization and reserve buoyancy. Only slightly exaggerating, you could make a hole the size of Moskva in the middle of a Nimitz and it'd stay afloat.

The most credible way to destroy one is to put a hole clean through a reactor. If the contents of a reactor are spread out all over half of the ship, I doubt they would try to save it instead of evacuating and scuttling.

Mzuri
Jun 5, 2004

Who's the boss?
Dudes is lost.
Don't think coz I'm iced out,
I'm cooled off.
Happy page 666



Also, Slava Ukraini.

Deptfordx
Dec 23, 2013

Aren't modern heavyweight torpedos tuned to explode under the ship to break the keel rather than punch a hole in the side WW2 style.

How vulnerable is a US supercarrier to that sort of attack?

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Wingnut Ninja posted:

Hail Satan, Slava Ukraini.

Arc Light
Sep 26, 2013



Deptfordx posted:

How vulnerable is a US supercarrier to that sort of attack?

You'll need to go to Discord for that kind of intel, comrade

Edit:
Hail Ukraine, Slava Satana.

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A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Arc Light posted:

You'll need to go to Discord for that kind of intel, comrade

Edit:
Hail Ukraine, Slava Satana.

nah, there's footage of at least one SINKEX of that kind of thing. Nothing that floats can survive one of those.

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