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DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

Baddog posted:


We seem to be nearing "our tech is falling apart because we didn't hire the right people to maintain it" stage at a few places. Figuring out where the duct tape is gonna burst next is kinda hard though.

Having worked in the IT industry and seen how that sector is treated? I suspect this is the case in far more companies than we realize. When I first started in that industry IT was considered an important part of any companies operations. By the time I left that thinking had shifted and most companies considered IT to be an unfortunate cost center to be cut back as far as possible. A lot of companies went overboard with this and are now running outdated equipment configured by underqualified employees and monitored by automated process setup by those same underqualified employees. Back in 2010 when I was working as a contractor at the end of the long process of burning out it seemed like every third wiring closet I opened was a disaster waiting to happen. I cant imagine things look much better now. I expect well see more and more stories like this one as time goes by.

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Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Hadlock posted:

Sounds like they're at least 10 years behind on deferred maintenance of their mission critical computer systems, I don't know how you get out of that death spiral but sure seems like those things will get worse from this point before they get better

Didn't they do a full ground stop for like 4 days during peak holiday travel as well

Usually I'm the guy rooting for "they can turn this around" but I have low confidence in this case

Their practice has been to pay FAA fines instead of making repairs or fixes to their processes, if that's any help.

Airline travel is general is a little scary considering the corners that are cut and where pilots are coming from compared to 20-30 years ago.

Democratic Pirate
Feb 17, 2010

The last time I tried to book a flight, Southwest’s best options had, at min, 6 hours of layovers and cost $250 more than everyone else. Outbound flights at 7am, 9am, and noon were all slotted to get to DC on the same flight. Garbage service.

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


Democratic Pirate posted:

The last time I tried to book a flight, Southwest’s best options had, at min, 6 hours of layovers and cost $250 more than everyone else. Outbound flights at 7am, 9am, and noon were all slotted to get to DC on the same flight. Garbage service.
This just varies depending on your route. They're always cheapest when I'm flying from NC out west.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


took the W on $C and $IBKR. swing trades that worked out very well.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

For those of you not content losing money trading wheat last year, rice is now on the table to lose money on as well

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/19/global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-largest-in-20-years-heres-why.html

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Hadlock posted:

For those of you not content losing money trading wheat last year, rice is now on the table to lose money on as well

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/19/global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-largest-in-20-years-heres-why.html

Fret not, you can always buy some rice on futures delivery! https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CBOT/II/17/17.pdf

CBOE posted:

17102.B. Trading Unit
Par delivery is 2,000 hundredweight (200,000 pounds) of U.S. No. 2 or better long-grain rough
rice.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

:thunk: I'm gonna need a few more rice cookers.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

What's left of GE is going to split into aviation and power in early '24

Anybody want to hazard a guess on how that will play out

ist
Mar 9, 2007
lurkin since '01
.

ist fucked around with this message at 01:35 on May 19, 2023

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

ist posted:

I can buy June 2024 410/400 debit spread for $3.20. This will result in a ~200% return if SPY drops to 400 at any time between now and expiration.


No, it nets you your negative delta in return and should eventually increase your theta.

You will only get your max gain near 0 dte or extremely far itm, not only if it drops to 400 between now and June.

It's going to be hard to cash in a large win quickly, it'll be like being short 15 shares for a long while.

And all that time that you're waiting for theta to come off or burn away is time for spy to turn against you.

ist
Mar 9, 2007
lurkin since '01
.

ist fucked around with this message at 01:36 on May 19, 2023

Skunkduster
Jul 15, 2005




Hadlock posted:

What's left of GE is going to split into aviation and power in early '24

Anybody want to hazard a guess on how that will play out

Poorly, I hope. I hate GE products and their customer support is loving terrible.

Jows
May 8, 2002

Skunkduster posted:

Poorly, I hope. I hate GE products and their customer support is loving terrible.

Hopefully power should still do well considering a very large percentage of power in this country is generated by GE turbines.

Or maybe they'll merge with another Japanese sex toy company like their nuclear division did.

The Door Frame
Dec 5, 2011

I don't know man everytime I go to the gym here there are like two huge dudes with raging high and tights snorting Nitro-tech off of each other's rock hard abs.

Jows posted:

Hopefully power should still do well considering a very large percentage of power in this country is generated by GE turbines.

Or maybe they'll merge with another Japanese sex toy company like their nuclear division did.

The batteries on those things have a 6 year service life, so you really get your money's worth

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Jows posted:


Or maybe they'll merge with another Japanese sex toy company like their nuclear division did.

Wait, what?

Jows
May 8, 2002

Baddog posted:

Wait, what?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GE_Hitachi_Nuclear_Energy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitachi_Magic_Wand

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Skunkduster posted:

Poorly, I hope. I hate GE products and their customer support is loving terrible.

ge consumer products are made by some random company that bought the naming rights

Jows posted:

Hopefully power should still do well considering a very large percentage of power in this country is generated by GE turbines.

They spun off their turbine business in the last three years, pun intended

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Hah! Yah, those japanese conglomerates give no shits about "protecting their brand". Slap that name on everything.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
You’d think even they would think twice before being associated with GE though

Not a Children
Oct 9, 2012

Don't need a holster if you never stop shooting.

I'd trust hitachi with a great many things before delegating engineering to GE

MetaJew
Apr 14, 2006
Gather round, one and all, and thrill to my turgid tales of underwhelming misadventure!

Baddog posted:

Hah! Yah, those japanese conglomerates give no shits about "protecting their brand". Slap that name on everything.

Hitachi absolutely does care and was going to just end production of the magic wand because of the implications.

I had read that some US importer convinced them to continue making it and just entirely remove any references to Hitachi on the product and packaging.

The Door Frame
Dec 5, 2011

I don't know man everytime I go to the gym here there are like two huge dudes with raging high and tights snorting Nitro-tech off of each other's rock hard abs.

MetaJew posted:

Hitachi absolutely does care and was going to just end production of the magic wand because of the implications.

I had read that some US importer convinced them to continue making it and just entirely remove any references to Hitachi on the product and packaging.

I think it was around time that they bought Metabo and wanted to start getting their consumer and professional grade power tools into big stores. Probably a bit embarrassing that their most popular tool was a vibrator

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


decent read from Bill Gross (of PIMCO fame)
https://williamhgross.com/wall-st-playbill/

from the end

quote:

Investors should therefore invest with expectations for 3%-plus annual CPI gains. They should own TIPS versus nominal Treasuries. Own them in smaller size via ETFs such as STIP and VTIP. They should include commodities in a portion of their diversified portfolios.

(words)

As a result many regionals are down 30%-40% since and it’s possible to own (or in effect) start a bank at 60%-70% of book value. Admittedly, regionals will have their cyclical problems if and when a recession occurs but my long-time wish to own a bank is now possible via public markets. Recent ROEs of 9%-10% at 60% of book provide an enticing long-term investment. Many smaller regionals may be gobbled up by larger counterparts at premium-to-market bids. I’ve become a banker by proxy. My purchases – not recommendations for legal purposes – include WAL, KRE (an ETF), SNV, and PACW.

he has a twitter too where sometimes he talks specific trades. seems chill for a famous rich guy

drk
Jan 16, 2005
That article has strong old man yells at cloud energy.

Also some real weird takes like

> When yields get to 0%, [the Fed] buys bonds at superficial prices in order to fund the Treasury, and generate profits for their owners (the banks)

How exactly did they make money on these "0%" yielding bonds? Answer: 0% actually means like 2% but as an 80s guy thats basically zero

> [My money market] yielded .01% for six years until 2022. On a $100,000 investment I earned $10 per year.

Not sure where he found a money market that paid 0.01% from 2016-2022, including the period of time when the fed funds rate was above 2%. I suspect he's also exaggerating here, but it makes it hard to take him seriously. The dude has been an investment manager for half a century, if he made 0.01% for 6 years it was a choice, not because there was literally no better options available to him.

> [rant about ending the gold standard]

lol

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

MetaJew posted:

Hitachi absolutely does care and was going to just end production of the magic wand because of the implications.

I had read that some US importer convinced them to continue making it and just entirely remove any references to Hitachi on the product and packaging.

Hitachi sold the magic wand to one of their family companies. Hitachi still does the warranty work on them.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

pmchem posted:

decent read from Bill Gross (of PIMCO fame)
https://williamhgross.com/wall-st-playbill/

from the end

he has a twitter too where sometimes he talks specific trades. seems chill for a famous rich guy

He blasted the Gilligan's Island theme song on his outdoor sound system overnight for like 2 years because he didn't get along with his neighbors.

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.
That may or may not be a good thing. Depends on who the neighbors were.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


DapperDraculaDeer posted:

That may or may not be a good thing. Depends on who the neighbors were.

lol

quote:


Bill Gross, also known as “the Bond King” for founding the PIMCO investment fund, has won a drawn-out, often farcical dispute over a $1 million Dale Chihuly glass sculpture the billionaire installed on the edge of his property in Laguna Beach.

His neighbors, tech entrepreneur Mark Towfiq and wife Carol Nakahara, complained to the city after Gross and his wife, Amy, put a net over the 10-foot artwork to protect it from the elements. Towfiq claimed that his neighbors needed permission to install both the work and the net, and that it blocked his previously unobscured sea view.

https://news.artnet.com/art-world/bill-gross-wins-dispute-dale-chihuly-2126980

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Just doesn't look that bad at all.

https://nypost.com/2021/10/15/the-petty-rich-people-feud-ruining-laguna-beach/

quote:

In 2019, he famously revealed he has Asperger syndrome — a high-functioning form of autism marked by social awkwardness and a tendency to fixate on particular subjects

Makes sense.

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006





I saw the name "Mark Towfiq" and was impressed my former coworker was living it up, turns out it's a more common name than I thought.

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

$1,000,000 for *that*? Jesus christ these loving people.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

$1,000,000 for *that*? Jesus christ these loving people.

being a billionaire is prima facie evidence of brain damage because at some point in your life you had $100 million and decided to keep showing up for work anyway

Baddog
May 12, 2001

shame on an IGA posted:

being a billionaire is prima facie evidence of brain damage because at some point in your life you had $100 million and decided to keep showing up for work anyway


If you've got that much and you aren't some insanely overpaid CEO, its investments. And investments kinda snowball if you aren't a complete dumbass about them. At that point you don't even have to really pay attention, although Bill obviously still is. You can just hire a couple really smart kids for a couple hundred thousand a year to manage them.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

$1,000,000 for *that*? Jesus christ these loving people.

They're a lot more impressive in person. If you happen to go to Seattle at all, check out the Chihuly Gardens. Well worth it.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
There’s one In Indianapolis you can sit on a circle couch that spins around and stare up at it.

Also lol at a billionaire that has close neighbors, just buy up all the houses. If you have to buy the city council and have them emanate domain them.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
https://abcnews.go.com/US/bed-bath-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy/story?id=98784126
RIP

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
hell yes

:yeshaha: x 1000000

drk
Jan 16, 2005
Cathie and the ARK crew are back with their always insane TSLA forecasts: https://ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027/

From todays price of $165, their price target 2027 is... $2000, a CAGR of 70%. The bear case is $1400!

The whole thing is worth a read for a laugh, but here is their main table of very realistic expectations

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pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

drk posted:

Cathie and the ARK crew are back with their always insane TSLA forecasts: https://ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027/

From todays price of $165, their price target 2027 is... $2000, a CAGR of 70%. The bear case is $1400!

The whole thing is worth a read for a laugh, but here is their main table of very realistic expectations



Tell me you don’t really know how to set up a Monte Carlo without actually saying it.

This reminds me of models that said the default rate on mortgages maxed out at like 3%

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