Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Willa Rogers posted:

^^^ It also controls the narratives & avoids any pesky unscripted questions.

I don't think anyone ever does an unscheduled Q&A or has a press pool right in front at their announcement speech. So, it is probably not for that.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
There was a 2020 presidential candidate who introduced his campaign via video, I forget what his name was. As I recall he got crushed in Iowa, NH and Nevada; I assume he must have washed out of the primary after that. Joe something...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbOU2fTg6cI

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
According to a new WSJ poll today, DeSantis has plummeted in the Republican primary, but still beats Biden in a general.

Trump loses to Biden by the same amount as DeSantis leads. Could partially be a large margin of error just working out on different ends. But, it looks like a similar dynamic to 2020 and 2022 is at play where Biden/Democrats are overwhelmingly winning voters who don't like either candidate/party or somewhat disapprove of Biden in a Biden v. Trump match.

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649364640047022080
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649366937539862529
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1649414264958984198
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649368966643564545

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

According to a new WSJ poll today, DeSantis has plummeted in the Republican primary, but still beats Biden in a general.

Trump loses to Biden by the same amount as DeSantis leads. Could partially be a large margin of error just working out on different ends. But, it looks like a similar dynamic to 2020 and 2022 is at play where Biden/Democrats are overwhelmingly winning voters who don't like either candidate/party or somewhat disapprove of Biden in a Biden v. Trump match.

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649364640047022080
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649366937539862529
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1649414264958984198
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649368966643564545

So a year and a half out, DeSantis is in a statistical tie with Biden despite having probably the best press he will ever get?

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I don't think anyone ever does an unscheduled Q&A or has a press pool right in front at their announcement speech. So, it is probably not for that.

Yeah, Clinton's was after her video, in an Iowa "kickoff event."

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Overall crime has gone down in the U.S. from 2021 to 2022, but shootings and murder are still at record levels following their large rise in 2020. Even though overall crime is down, violent crime is still up significantly.

Mass shootings and killings are also up dramatically for the first 3 months of 2023 compared to the first 3 months of prior years. 2023 is averaging a mass shooting with 4 or more deaths every 6.5 days in 2023.

Despite mass shootings/killings being way up, they still represent only a small part of the overall violent crime and shooting deaths. Most shooting deaths involve 2 or fewer fatalities and those drive the overwhelming number of gun homicides in the country. The U.S. is currently at 12,806 gun deaths for 2023 and on track to exceed the number of gun deaths in 2022. The total non-suicide death by gun rate in 2022 was roughly 25% higher than it was in 2016.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1649403029349597184

quote:

Once-a-week nightmare: US mass killings on a record pace

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The U.S. is setting a record pace for mass killings in 2023, replaying the horror on a loop roughly once a week so far this year.

The carnage has taken 88 lives in 17 mass killings over 111 days. Each time, the killers wielded firearms. Only 2009 was marked by as many such tragedies in the same period of time.

Children at a Nashville grade school, gunned down on an ordinary Monday. Farmworkers in Northern California, sprayed with bullets over a workplace grudge. Dancers at a ballroom outside Los Angeles, massacred as they celebrated the Lunar New Year.

In just the last week, four partygoers were slain and 32 injured in Dadeville, Alabama, when bullets rained down on a Sweet 16 celebration. And a man just released from prison fatally shot four people, including his parents, in Bowdoin, Maine, before opening fire on motorists traveling a busy interstate highway.

“Nobody should be shocked,” said Fred Guttenberg, whose 14-year-old daughter Jaime was one of 17 people killed at a Parkland, Florida, high school in 2018. “I visit my daughter in a cemetery. Outrage doesn’t begin to describe how I feel.”

The Parkland victims are among the 2,842 people who have died in mass killings in the U.S. since 2006, according to a database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today, in partnership with Northeastern University. It counts killings involving four or more fatalities, not including the perpetrator, the same standard as the FBI, and tracks a number of variables for each.

The bloodshed represents just a fraction of the fatal violence that occurs in the U.S. annually. Yet mass killings are happening with staggering frequency this year: An average of once every 6.53 days, according to an analysis of The AP/USA Today data.

From coast to coast, the violence is sparked by a range of motives. Murder-suicides and domestic violence; gang retaliation; school shootings and workplace vendettas. All have taken the lives of four or more people at once since Jan. 1.

Yet the violence continues and barriers to change remain. The likelihood of Congress reinstating a ban on semi-automatic rifles appears far off, and the U.S. Supreme Court last year set new standards for reviewing the nation’s gun laws, calling into question firearms restrictions across the country.

The pace of mass shootings so far this year doesn’t necessarily foretell a new annual record. In 2009, the bloodshed slowed and the year finished with a final count of 32 mass killings and 172 fatalities. Those figures just barely exceed the averages of 31.1 mass killings and 162 victims a year, according to an analysis of data dating back to 2006.

Gruesome records have been set within the last decade. The data shows a high of 45 mass killings in 2019 and 230 people slain in such tragedies in 2017. That year, 60 people died when a gunman opened fire over an outdoor country music festival on the Las Vegas Strip. The massacre still accounts for the most fatalities from a mass shooting in modern America.

“Here’s the reality: If somebody is determined to commit mass violence, they’re going to,” said Jaclyn Schildkraut, executive director of the Rockefeller Institute of Government’s Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium. “And it’s our role as society to try and put up obstacles and barriers to make that more difficult.”

But there’s little indication at either the state or federal level — with a handful of exceptions — that many major policy changes are on the horizon.

Some states have tried to impose more gun control within their own borders. Last week, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed a new law mandating criminal background checks to purchase rifles and shotguns, whereas the state previously required them only for people buying pistols. And on Wednesday, a ban on dozens of types of semi-automatic rifles cleared the Washington state Legislature and is headed to the governor’s desk.

Other states are experiencing a new round of pressure. In conservative Tennessee, protesters descended on the state Capitol to demand more gun regulation after six people were killed at the Nashville private elementary school last month.

At the federal level, President Joe Biden last year signed a milestone gun violence bill, toughening background checks for the youngest gun buyers, keeping firearms from more domestic violence offenders and helping states use red flag laws that enable police to ask courts to take guns from people who show signs they could turn violent.

Despite the blaring headlines, mass killings are statistically rare, perpetrated by just a handful of people each year in a country of nearly 335 million. And there’s no way to predict whether this year’s events will continue at this rate.

Sometimes mass killings happen back-to-back — like in January, when deadly events in northern and southern California occurred just two days apart — while other months pass without bloodshed.

“We shouldn’t necessarily expect that this — one mass killing every less than seven days — will continue,” said Northeastern University criminologist James Alan Fox. “Hopefully it won’t.”

Still, experts and advocates decry the proliferation of guns in the U.S. in recent years, including record sales during the height of the pandemic.

“We have to know that this isn’t the way to live,” said John Feinblatt, president of Everytown for Gun Safety. “We don’t have to live this way. And we cannot live in a country with an agenda of guns everywhere, every place and every time.”

The National Rifle Association did not respond to the AP’s request for comment.

Jaime Guttenberg would be 19 years old now. Her father now spends his days as a gun control activist.

“America shouldn’t be surprised by where we are today,” Guttenberg said. “It’s all in the numbers. The numbers don’t lie. But we need to do something immediately to fix it.”

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

OneTwentySix posted:

Does anyone have any good articles about why transgender athletes should be able to play in sports? I'm trans, my partner is trans, but she is mostly on the side of trans athletes have an advantage and shouldn't play, but has expressed openness to the alternative. I used to be in the same boat, but then I read some things and changed my mind, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to talk to her about it without potentially remembering incorrectly and I don't have any data to go along with it.

Other people already posted links to studies proving trans athletes don't have the advantage that critics claim they do, but my kneejerk reaction was "Well if you concede that trans athletes shouldn't be allowed in sports, then you're tacitly admitting that you are not a 'real' man or woman, that you are some sort of Other." and that just seems like ground you shouldn't want to give up.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Mooseontheloose posted:

So a year and a half out, DeSantis is in a statistical tie with Biden despite having probably the best press he will ever get?

Once he actually announces he stops being Governor, so the news stops being about how he's currently getting beaten by Disney and is super sore about it. In fact, if the dumbass would just transition from actively being an rear end in a top hat to running to be an rear end in a top hat his press would dramatically improve to levels at least comparable to when he was being touted as the front runner/hope of the GOP.

DeSantis is and will be at his strongest when he's not publicly doing anything. Letting everyone make up their image of what and who he is, before he inevitably takes the debate stage and eats poo poo to such a degree that Perry, Walker, and JEB! look like competent contenders.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

the_steve posted:

Other people already posted links to studies proving trans athletes don't have the advantage that critics claim they do, but my kneejerk reaction was "Well if you concede that trans athletes shouldn't be allowed in sports, then you're tacitly admitting that you are not a 'real' man or woman, that you are some sort of Other." and that just seems like ground you shouldn't want to give up.

To my knowledge there is not a single case of someone going through gender-reassignment surgery just to benefit in sports. In fact I think there was an East German athlete who was actually kept from transitioning to a man. The East German athletes were also doped with enough steroids and other illicit poo poo to sustain a decade of Mr. Universe competitions. I feel like any person who was willing to undergo surgery or even simply lie about their identity, just to win in a given sport would probably have crossed that particular disqualifying bridge already.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
The under oath UFO hearing in the Senate took place. Still no confirmation of aliens, but they did reveal a few more things:

- The new UFO director is collecting UFO data and information from all the various U.S. agencies to assemble into one spot and declassify sometime later this year.

- The U.S. has recorded a large increase in UFO sightings in the last few years (assumed to be related to the increase in drone usage, but...)

- The U.S. has only been able to confirm/debunk a little over 50% of the over 650 UFO cases.

- Most of them turned out to be drones or balloon-like objects, a few were errors in scanning equipment, and about 300 of them remain unidentified.

- Most of the remaining unidentified UFO sightings are because the objects were only seen briefly and they have no additional evidence or method to confirm anything for sure in that limited sighting.

- Unfortunately, in reviewing all the UFO data from the 1940's to present, they have found "no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology or objects that defy the known laws of physics." (But, that is also what they would WANT you to think if they did... :tinfoil:)

- Senate Democrats have promised an additional hearing in the next year after all the historical information is unclassified.

quote:

US government tracking more than 650 potential UFO cases, Pentagon says

The US government is tracking more than 650 potential cases of so-called “unidentified aerial phenomena,” commonly known as UFOs, according to the director of the office created last year to focus on the sightings.

Sean Kirkpatrick, director of the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, told a Senate Armed Services subcommittee Wednesday that the number of cases was up from the 350 reports referenced in an unclassified intelligence report on unidentified aerial phenomena released earlier this year.

“Of those over 650, we’ve prioritized about half of them to be of anomalous interesting value, and now we have to go through those and go ‘How much of those do I have actual data for?’” Kirkpatrick said.

Kirkpatrick outlined to lawmakers how his office is helping the Pentagon and intelligence community to identify emerging foreign technologies, including his role in helping to identify the high-altitude surveillance balloon from China that flew over US airspace in February.

He played video from two of cases that had been declassified, one that had been resolved and the other unresolved.

The first video showed a small orb that flew through the camera screen of an MQ-9 drone in the Middle East in 2022. The drone’s camera followed the object as it moved through the sky, coming in and out of the screen.

Kirkpatrick explained that this case was unresolved because there was no other evidence beyond the video. “It is going to be virtually impossible to fully identify that, just based off of that video,” he said, adding that the hope was as more data was gathered on these episodes, patterns could emerge to help explain the unresolved cases.

In the second video from South Asia earlier this year, an object flew by two MQ-9 drones, including one that captured video appearing to have a propulsion trail behind it, which Kirkpatrick said was initially believed to be “truly anomalous.”

But he said after they pulled apart the video frame by frame, his office determined that it was a “shadow image.”

“This is in the infrared, this is the heat signature off the engines in a commuter aircraft that happened to be flying in the vicinity of where those two MQ9s were at,” he said.

Thursday’s hearing, chaired by New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is the latest that Congress has held over the past year on UAPs as lawmakers pressure the Pentagon to solve the unexplained sightings.

While much of the public focus is over the possibility of UFOs, Kirkpatrick once again reiterated there’s no evidence of represented extraterrestrial life in the sightings.

“In our research, AARO has found no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology or objects that defy the known laws of physics,” Kirkpatrick said.

Senators asked Kirkpatrick about the prospect of emerging technologies from foreign countries like Russia and China. He said that in a small number of cases, he has concerns the episodes could be evidence of potential technological advancements. Those cases, he said, are handed off to the intelligence community to investigate further.

“They are less risk averse at technical advancement than we are. They are just willing to try things and see if it works,” he said. “Are there capabilities that could be employed against us in both ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) and a weapons fashion? Absolutely. Do I have evidence they’re doing it in these cases? No, but I have concerning indicators.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/poli...&utm_term=video

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Apr 21, 2023

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

Gyges posted:

Once he actually announces he stops being Governor, so the news stops being about how he's currently getting beaten by Disney and is super sore about it. In fact, if the dumbass would just transition from actively being an rear end in a top hat to running to be an rear end in a top hat his press would dramatically improve to levels at least comparable to when he was being touted as the front runner/hope of the GOP.

DeSantis is and will be at his strongest when he's not publicly doing anything. Letting everyone make up their image of what and who he is, before he inevitably takes the debate stage and eats poo poo to such a degree that Perry, Walker, and JEB! look like competent contenders.

You actually keep your job while your actively getting your next one. Nobody notices because they don't actually DO that much at the end of the day. He would be the governor of Florida the whole time hes running, and would keep the position if he lost. He isn't up for election until 2026.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Just remember, if the investigation turns up nothing, that just means the conspiracy is more powerful than you thought

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

haveblue posted:

Just remember, if the investigation turns up nothing, that just means the conspiracy is more powerful than you thought

This is actually the best of both worlds because the investigation has both turned up nothing so far AND is also unable to confirm/debunk about half of the sightings.

It is almost 50/50 a coverup and a situation where nobody can explain what it was or knows if those were really aliens or not.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

the_steve posted:

Other people already posted links to studies proving trans athletes don't have the advantage that critics claim they do, but my kneejerk reaction was "Well if you concede that trans athletes shouldn't be allowed in sports, then you're tacitly admitting that you are not a 'real' man or woman, that you are some sort of Other." and that just seems like ground you shouldn't want to give up.

It's a very toxic debate due to the current trans panic. I think there is a reasonable discussion to be had about the influence of some conditions, including but not limited to being transgender and specifically having undergone male puberty, on the fairness of certain women's sports at an elite level. Reasonable people can disagree. That's, emphatically, not what's happening here with the larger public debate, which is about eliminating trans people from the public sphere as much as possible, and I believe you're correct that until the terms of the discussion are changed, there's no reason to involve oneself in the discussion, because the other side is not operating in good faith.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PT6A posted:

It's a very toxic debate due to the current trans panic. I think there is a reasonable discussion to be had about the influence of some conditions, including but not limited to being transgender and specifically having undergone male puberty, on the fairness of certain women's sports at an elite level. Reasonable people can disagree. That's, emphatically, not what's happening here with the larger public debate, which is about eliminating trans people from the public sphere as much as possible, and I believe you're correct that until the terms of the discussion are changed, there's no reason to involve oneself in the discussion, because the other side is not operating in good faith.

Even beyond all of that, professional and Olympic-level sports all have tons of crazy eligibility rules that filter out different people and testing requirements. Yet, none of the anti-trans laws ever attempt to regulate those areas.

There is some evidence that there are small boosts to performance at the elite level in certain sports. But, there is no logic or evidence that it makes much of a difference in high school or middle school sports (which is what all of these bans are targeting). I don't think the vast majority of people consider "the point" of middle school and high school sports to maximally crush your fellow students either way.

The fact that there are so many qualifiers ("small boosts," "at the elite level," "some sports") and trans athletes make up such a small number of participants means that even if they were 100% concerned about competition equality, then blanket bans on all sports and bans focusing on high school and middle school don't address any of their concerns.

It's just an emotional trigger that riles up a lot of people because a decent percentage of people are explicitly anti-trans and a very large percentage of people just don't care one way or the other, so "unfairness" is a good fig leaf for people who really don't care/know much about the issue, but also don't consider themselves anti-trans/would oppose a ban whose reasoning was explicit discrimination.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

the_steve posted:

Other people already posted links to studies proving trans athletes don't have the advantage that critics claim they do, but my kneejerk reaction was "Well if you concede that trans athletes shouldn't be allowed in sports, then you're tacitly admitting that you are not a 'real' man or woman, that you are some sort of Other." and that just seems like ground you shouldn't want to give up.

Being able to play in a specific sport is not what I'd consider the defining feature of a "real" man or woman considering most men and women cannot actually play most sports, largely down to genetics and chance, and sports themselves are an entertainment industry that exists primarily to ensure the highest likelihood of "fair" (usually somewhat balanced), entertaining games. That's the whole reason there's a man/woman split in many sports at all - to make things more entertaining and "fair". It's also why some sports split people into weight classes instead, or in addition to, a gender split, because again - the goal is to get entertaining somewhat equal matches between people.

So no, I don't think you need, or should, to associate "realness" here with sports participation. Although a lot of the current anti-trans environment is using that as an excuse to try and Other-ize people, and they're the ones pushing things and reality doesn't line up with them, but there are plenty of pro-trans folk who see them as real men and real women that can still be convinced to buy in by their bullshit logic as a result.

Edit: Also, at the local/school level I'm pretty sure you could convince most parents to ban anyone they suspect might be better than their own precious child from playing, for purely selfish reasons, which makes them susceptible to this sort of argument as well.

GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Apr 21, 2023

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Even beyond all of that, professional and Olympic-level sports all have tons of crazy eligibility rules that filter out different people and testing requirements. Yet, none of the anti-trans laws ever attempt to regulate those areas.

There is some evidence that there are small boosts to performance at the elite level in certain sports. But, there is no logic or evidence that it makes much of a difference in high school or middle school sports (which is what all of these bans are targeting). I don't think the vast majority of people consider "the point" of middle school and high school sports to maximally crush your fellow students either way.

The fact that there are so many qualifiers ("small boosts," "at the elite level," "some sports") and trans athletes make up such a small number of participants means that even if they were 100% concerned about competition equality, then blanket bans on all sports and bans focusing on high school and middle school don't address any of their concerns.

It's just an emotional trigger that riles up a lot of people because a decent percentage of people are explicitly anti-trans and a very large percentage of people just don't care one way or the other, so "unfairness" is a good fig leaf for people who really don't care/know much about the issue, but also don't consider themselves anti-trans/would oppose a ban whose reasoning was explicit discrimination.

It also doesn't account for the fact that in a lot of sports and in the Olympics specifically, those rules have already been in place for years and zero of the doomsaying scenarios have happened. I'm sure the current rules aren't perfect and can continue being refined, but they're already largely in place and already functional. If the transphobic arguments had any legitimacy to them at all, their predictions should have already come true on a mass scale, and they obviously haven't.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
This is a really silly poll question because there will never be a bill in congress called the "The Either Combatting Wokeness in Schools and Businesses or Saving Social Security (You Have to Pick One) Act of 2023," but the results are still pretty interesting. Even though that specific binary choice will never directly exist, it does illustrate how much of the conservative movement is really based around cultural issues and the culture war now.

Especially interesting is that they are almost at 50% support for keeping Social Security where it is right now, so there is a decent amount of overlap of Republicans who oppose Social Security cuts, but would actually trade Social Security cuts to end wokeness.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1649421888718766086

quote:

Poll: GOP voters say fighting "woke" ideology more important than stopping Social Security cuts

Most Republican primary voters say fighting "woke" ideology in schools and businesses is more important to them than protecting Medicare and Social Security from cuts, a new Wall Street Journal poll out today showed.

Driving the news: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a potential 2024 candidate, has made conservative cultural issues in education a central part of his agenda, a move the poll indicates could help him with the GOP's most ardent supporters.

He signed into law a ban on the instruction of gender and sexuality in elementary school, which was recently expanded to include middle and high school.

He also signed the "Stop WOKE" Act which would ban classroom and corporate trainings that make students or employees feel discomfort over their race. (The bill has been temporarily blocked by a federal judge.)

The big picture: Former President Trump has attacked DeSantis over his past support for changes to Social Security and Medicare.

But 55% of Republicans say that fighting "woke ideology in our schools and businesses" is more important than protecting entitlement programs from cuts, per the Journal poll.

27% of Republican voters say protecting Social Security and Medicare benefits from cuts is more important to them.

However, 49% of all voters said they would support a candidate who pledged to keep entitlements as they are rather than push for cuts.

Zoom out: The poll also shows DeSantis trailing Trump 51% to 38% among likely Republican voters in a hypothetical matchup.

That's a marked change from December, when the Florida governor led led Trump 52% to 38% in a hypothetical matchup, per the WSJ.

In a potential field of 12 Republican candidates, Trump wins 48% of support to DeSantis' 24% among likely Republican primary voters, 13% of which say they are undecided.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


The obvious part is that most of the public legal battles are around school sports. A highschool lacrosse game is not and should not be a thing that needs "sanctity" beyond if the kids are safe and having fun.

The reason for this is that professional sports bodies are actually private companies and can do whatever they want, so Republicans can't pass laws banning them from having trans athletes and instead complain loudly about schools. So that alone is stupid.

But to answer the question more directly, biological sex is more complicated than people think. There was a good (Vox?) video on it a few years ago that I can't find right now on my phone but it boiled down to there being at least 3 medical definitions for sex and they disagree more often than you'd think, meaning people can be intersex and not even know it. And it turns out that female professional athletes are already intersex at greater rates than the general population. This makes sense because it turns out having a Y chromosome tends to make you taller and stronger, even if you were born with a vagina. Go figure.

And that's the real point - sports are already unfair. They're literally a genetic lottery. Nobody complains that it's unfair to let tall people compete in basketball. The viewpoint that transgender athletes are making sports unfair only makes sense if you think of being transgender as an unnatural thing you are doing to your body instead of something you just are.

Lastly - sports is entertainment. We ban steroids because it's going to lead to a race to the bottom of overdosed and disabled athletes with destroyed bodies. It's literally destructive and dangerous to their health. There isn't some holy scripture of sports that we have to keep to. There are no natural laws of athletics. The rules of sports can be changed with the goal of being inclusive while keeping them entertaining and profitable.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Barrel Cactaur posted:

You actually keep your job while your actively getting your next one. Nobody notices because they don't actually DO that much at the end of the day. He would be the governor of Florida the whole time hes running, and would keep the position if he lost. He isn't up for election until 2026.

Not in Florida. He has to resign once he officially announces he's running for President. The legislature could change the law, but they haven't so far and they seem to be getting annoyed by having to keep driving up to Tallahassee and passing whatever nonsense he's come up with today.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

There is some evidence that there are small boosts to performance at the elite level in certain sports. But, there is no logic or evidence that it makes much of a difference in high school or middle school sports (which is what all of these bans are targeting). I don't think the vast majority of people consider "the point" of middle school and high school sports to maximally crush your fellow students either way.

They're also dealing with ridiculously small sample sizes in a field where non sex related differences also make noticeable differences. Maybe it's the original hormones from before the transition, or maybe some off standard body ratio that is advantageous to the sport was present regardless. Testosterone probably isn't the base level cause of Michael Phelps having the proportional torso of a man 4 inches taller than him and the legs of a man 8 inches shorter.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Barrel Cactaur posted:

You actually keep your job while your actively getting your next one. Nobody notices because they don't actually DO that much at the end of the day. He would be the governor of Florida the whole time hes running, and would keep the position if he lost. He isn't up for election until 2026.

Florida has a law saying that if an elected state official officially runs for federal office, they have to resign from their state position. As soon as he officially announces his campaign, he's legally required to resign the governorship.

He's pushing the FL legislature to change that law to allow him to stay in office while he runs, and they probably will, but those recent rumors that they're starting to get sick of him must be pretty alarming for him and his staff.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

This is a really silly poll question because there will never be a bill in congress called the "The Either Combatting Wokeness in Schools and Businesses or Saving Social Security (You Have to Pick One) Act of 2023," but the results are still pretty interesting. Even though that specific binary choice will never directly exist, it does illustrate how much of the conservative movement is really based around cultural issues and the culture war now.

Voters don't directly vote for bills or laws. They vote for candidates, each of whom has their own issue positions and priorities.

It's very plausible that an election might be between a candidate who wants to fight wokeness and cut Social Security vs a candidate who wants to protect Social Security and isn't really concerned about "wokeness". If voters consider "fighting wokeness" to be more important than saving Social Security, then they might very well lean toward the former candidate, because his issue positions and priorities are more aligned with what they consider important.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Very disappointing news out of New York. Most housing policy is done at the state and local level and Kathy Hochul was one of the few Governors who proposed huge statewide housing plans and zoning reforms to try and dramatically increase housing in New York (and with New York's huge dearth of housing construction and moderate population increases, a dramatic increase in housing would still have barely started to make up the deficit) and the plan is officially dead.

It died due to the same reasons that most housing plans die: Opposition by local governments and residents to taking away local zoning control.

Putting it into the state budget to pass was assumed to be the only way to get is passed. They could technically take it up on its own, but it is unlikely to pass as a single stand-alone bill.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1649196521923985408

quote:

A Plan to Force More Housing Development in New York Has Failed

An aggressive housing plan promoted by Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York, which she hoped would create 800,000 new homes across the state over the next decade, has fallen apart in Albany after meeting fierce resistance from state legislators.

The plan would have forced cities, towns and villages to allow more housing to be built, and mirrored what other states are already doing. It would have been a first for New York, where home prices and rents have soared to among the highest in the United States and where more than half of all residents spend at least 30 percent of their income on housing.

Ms. Hochul, a Democrat, had sought to shoehorn her housing plan into the state’s budget, which she is still discussing behind closed doors with fellow Democrats who control the State Legislature.

But as negotiations dragged on past the April 1 deadline, the discussions remained deadlocked over Ms. Hochul’s proposed construction mandates for localities. The mandates were heavily opposed by many lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans, particularly in the State Assembly.

As the sides appeared unable to reach agreements on other thorny housing policies, including tenant protections, the negotiations began to unravel. After hitting an impasse this week, the governor’s housing plan, as well as other major housing policies, were pulled from the state budget discussions, according to three officials familiar with the private deliberations.

Officials from the New York City suburbs in Westchester County and on Long Island had resisted the effort fiercely, saying it was heavy-handed and would have strained local services.

Why did the governor focus on New York City’s suburbs?

The plan did not single out suburbs. It called for each community in the state to make way for more residential development. But some of the most significant effects would have been felt in towns and villages on Long Island and in Westchester County that have mass transit stations but have allowed relatively few homes to be built over the decades.

By one measure, Westchester County and Suffolk and Nassau Counties on Long Island have allowed fewer homes to be built per person in the past decade than the regions around nearly every other major U.S. city, including Boston, San Francisco and Washington.

The lack of building has contributed to a statewide housing shortage. A December report from the nonprofit Regional Plan Association estimated that New York needs to add more than 817,000 homes in the next decade to keep up with population growth and ease overcrowding.

The New Jersey suburbs offer a contrast and illustrate the potential economic benefit of building.

From 2000 to 2017, the number of people who commuted to New York City from the surrounding areas grew by around 190,000, according the Department of City Planning. About two-thirds of those people lived in northern New Jersey, where more housing was built than on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley combined.

In addition to easing the shortage, Ms. Hochul’s plan was meant to address a history of segregation in suburban communities, which in many cases were designed to exclude Black people.

What would her proposal have done?

The plan included two major components.

One would have forced every city, town and village that regulates land use to expand its housing stock every three years by set percentages — 3 percent downstate and 1 percent upstate.

Another would have compelled communities to allow more housing density near rail stations, including an average of at least 50 homes per acre within a half-mile of many Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North stations that were within 15 miles of New York City’s borders.

If a city or town had rejected a development improperly or did not meet its percentage targets, a fast-track process that would have overridden local opposition would have been triggered. The provision, state officials say, was important because it essentially ensured that growth would occur.

The plan would have had a modest effect in some places: Almost 80 percent of municipalities outside New York City would need to add fewer than 50 homes in the first three years to meet the growth targets.

Others, particularly communities near New York City that are dominated by single-family homes — Bronxville in Westchester, for instance, or Oyster Bay Cove in Nassau County — might have experienced significant changes.

What did suburban officials have to say?
Suburban officials from across the political spectrum led a fierce resistance to the proposal.

Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the Democratic leader of the State Senate, rebuffed the plan. Ms. Stewart-Cousins, who represents part of Westchester County, has said the state should create incentives for building homes instead of requiring it, even though research and history show that such strategies rarely succeed.

In Westchester, more than two dozen mayors and town supervisors signed a letter last month criticizing Ms. Hochul’s plan. Republicans, particularly on Long Island, united behind calls for “local control, not Hochul control.”

A few Democratic officials — like Steve Bellone, the Suffolk County executive, and Phil Ramos, a Long Island assemblyman — supported Ms. Hochul’s plan.

“It doesn’t matter what kind of incentive you give them — a wealthy community, before they allow Black and brown people in, they’ll walk away from any amount of money,” Mr. Ramos said at a recent rally.

What will happen next?

While it appears the plan will not make it into the state budget, which lawmakers often use to pass contentious measures, officials could revisit it later in the legislative session, which ends in June.

When asked about the plan’s collapse, a spokeswoman for Ms. Hochul referred to an earlier statement where she took a jab at lawmakers for opposing “core elements” of the housing plan, saying that “merely providing incentives will not make the meaningful change that New Yorkers deserve.”

Also left on the cutting room floor were other housing measures, from tenant protections to the extension of a contentious tax-break program for real estate developers known as 421a.

One of the proposals would limit a landlord’s ability to raise rents. The proposal, favored by progressive Democrats and tenant activists, has been a flashpoint in Albany for years, and is opposed by Ms. Hochul, a moderate Democrat.

Lawmakers could take up housing policy, which Democrats say is a party priority, after they approve a final budget.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Colorado also gutted a similar bill yesterday, along with killing an assault rifle ban and stricter pollution rules.
Dem trifecta baby!

https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/colorado-democrats-drop-stricter-permitting-rules-from-ozone-pollution-bill/

https://coloradonewsline.com/2023/04/19/colorado-land-use-bill-touted-as-democratic-priority-scaled-back-to-survive-committee-vote/

https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/colorado-house-committee-kills-assault-weapons-ban-after-12-hour-testimony/

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Very disappointing news out of New York. Most housing policy is done at the state and local level and Kathy Hochul was one of the few Governors who proposed huge statewide housing plans and zoning reforms to try and dramatically increase housing in New York (and with New York's huge dearth of housing construction and moderate population increases, a dramatic increase in housing would still have barely started to make up the deficit) and the plan is officially dead.

It died due to the same reasons that most housing plans die: Opposition by local governments and residents to taking away local zoning control.
Ugh, New York Dems are so lovely. Too many rich-rear end constituents in their districts.

Zoning, and housing policy in general, is one of those things where it’s easy for moneyed interests to use the fear of a 60-65%ish majority of losing what they have to keep the other 35-40% totally hosed. (The other big example that comes to mind is health insurance.)

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Overall crime has gone down in the U.S. from 2021 to 2022, but shootings and murder are still at record levels following their large rise in 2020.
A more statistically appropriate term would be "local maxima." Rates have been higher as recently as 1997.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Apr 21, 2023

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

The problem with local housing policy reform is that the people who it benefits most typically cant actually vote on it. Just like everyone is in favor of a top of the line nuclear waste disposal site somewhere else, almost everyone is in favor of affordable housing somewhere else. Here of course it would subtract from the natural character of cookie cutter cape style houses in neat, even, white picket fenced rows.

Also the new York legislature is captured by the neoliberal end of the dem party machine. No hope anything good comes out of that. especially when you have upstate slamming fingers into the pie.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus
My city has been making some strides toward affordable housing but unfortunately it's all tied up in continuing to make things more friendly to businesses and ongoing gentrification. I have a feeling that "affordable housing" is going to become "more housing" instead and we're just going to keep pricing people out of their homes and apartments.

Unrelated, why are there so many homeless people now??? They must be getting bussed in from somewhere!

pthighs
Jun 21, 2013

Pillbug

KillHour posted:

The obvious part is that most of the public legal battles are around school sports. A highschool lacrosse game is not and should not be a thing that needs "sanctity" beyond if the kids are safe and having fun.

I agree with this in principle but it does not match up at all with the current reality. I don't know if you have kids or not, but youth sports is increasingly defined largely as a path for children to get scholarships or acceptance to a more prestigous university than they would otherwise manage. My 11 year-old daughter's soccer team has kids transferring clubs so they get to play in front of more college scouts.

I don't think this is real, in that there aren't a lot of college scouts watching 11 year-olds play soccer, but holy cow is it a huge part of the marketing for the various leagues in which these kids play. They are selling a dream to well-off parents and their kids, it's like selling water to a dying man in the desert.

This has also escalated significantly in even the past decade.

pthighs fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Apr 21, 2023

Class3KillStorm
Feb 17, 2011



Gyges posted:

Not in Florida. He has to resign once he officially announces he's running for President. The legislature could change the law, but they haven't so far and they seem to be getting annoyed by having to keep driving up to Tallahassee and passing whatever nonsense he's come up with today

Speaking of things that annoy the FL legislature, how are they dealing with Ft. Lauderdale still being underwater? Seeing as how DeSantis is currently more-or-less running without announcing, they should be able to tell exactly how he's going to handle any issues or disasters that crop up from now until Nov. 2024 if he commits to actually running (ie., he's not gonna bother).

If they were smart, they'd either not bother changing the law so that they could keep DeSantis on hand and focused on his day job, or they'd insure that he had a very short leash if they allow him this benefit. I think all he's done is just proven that the legislature just giving him carte blanche to run around doing rallies for non-Floridians is of no real benefit to them, personally, so I can't see a reason why they should, at this point.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
As a Floridian, I am offended that you would ever even entertain the notion that our legislators might be smart.

lil poopendorfer
Nov 13, 2014

by the sex ghost
The issue that I hear regarding trans youth in sports is the idea of a trans woman changing w cis women in the locker room. the possibility of trans women having unfair advantage over their cis competitors never really comes up

woozy pawsies
Nov 26, 2007

OneTwentySix posted:

Does anyone have any good articles about why transgender athletes should be able to play in sports? I'm trans, my partner is trans, but she is mostly on the side of trans athletes have an advantage and shouldn't play, but has expressed openness to the alternative. I used to be in the same boat, but then I read some things and changed my mind, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to talk to her about it without potentially remembering incorrectly and I don't have any data to go along with it.

This is long and from 2019, but it’s usually what I refer to https://www.barbellmedicine.com/blog/shades-of-gray-sex-gender-and-fairness-in-sport/

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

lil poopendorfer posted:

The issue that I hear regarding trans youth in sports is the idea of a trans woman changing w cis women in the locker room. the possibility of trans women having unfair advantage over their cis competitors never really comes up

I think the advantage thing was their initial thrust a couple years ago, until they decided that sexual deviancy was the angle to really work.

Basically to them, if you're young and trans, then you're either a boy wanting to perv on the girl's locker room or just trying to get an easy softball scholarship, and if you're an adult and trans, then you're a groomer who wants to watch toddlers use the bathroom.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Mellow Seas posted:

Ugh, New York Dems are so lovely. Too many rich-rear end constituents in their districts.

Zoning, and housing policy in general, is one of those things where it’s easy for moneyed interests to use the fear of a 60-65%ish majority of losing what they have to keep the other 35-40% totally hosed. (The other big example that comes to mind is health insurance.)

A more statistically appropriate term would be "local maxima." Rates have been higher as recently as 1997.

Yes, that's more correct. It should be "record levels for the last 25 years" and not "record levels" to be more precise.

Automata 10 Pack
Jun 21, 2007

Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette
New York Dems are why I'm against the whole "Lol gerrymandering is okay because we can break it to OUR advantage." Turns out a political party doesn't need to worry about losing their jobs, they kinda end up becoming Republicans!

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Federal prosecutors are considering charges against Hunter Biden.

The charges they are considering are:

- Two misdemeanors for failing to file taxes.
- One felony for tax evasion.
- One felony for a false statement on a firearm application (he said he had never used or abused illegal drugs when applying for a gun).

The IRS and DOJ investigations have both finished, but no final decision has been made on whether to charge or not. Biden has already paid back the taxes and penalties he owes and the misdemeanor tax charges are generally not criminally prosecuted once they have done that. However, felony tax evasion charges are generally prosecuted even if the money has been paid back.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1649216541903278080

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018

DarkCrawler posted:

10-15% of the population. There are non-white people here, including myself.

Isn't there a bit of a difference in accounting when comparing a multi-party parliamentary system and a two party system? If Finland had a two party scheme then plausibly the white nationalists would be part of the right-wing umbrella and therefore anyone who voted that big party would be a fascist, inflating the numbers. I think that might be a factor.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
If you want to know what it's like to try to build public housing in New York, I recommend the "Show Me a Hero" HBO miniseries by David Simon about seven years of the ultimately 27-year fight to create just 800 public housing units in Yonkers

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Biden's new nominee for Secretary of Labor may go down for being too friendly to labor.

Every Republican is so far opposed over concerns that she can't be a "neutral arbiter" as the Secretary of Labor because she was a union activist and her public calendar as Deputy Secretary of Labor showed that she had meetings with union and labor officials, but never took a meeting with business leaders.

Joe Manchin has also "expressed concerns" about her nomination, but has not given any specific reason why:

quote:

A former Biden administration official said that Manchin’s hesitation on Su’s nomination probably had more to do with appealing to constituents in West Virginia than any specific qualm on how she would lead.

Manchin has typically been little involved with the Labor Department, aside from its mining safety regulatory division, which has close ties to his West Virginia constituents.

Currently the Labor Department’s deputy secretary, Su emerged as a favorite of unions and the Democratic Party establishment after Marty Walsh announced he was headed to lead the National Hockey League’s players’ union. Walsh said Su is ready for the job.

Jon Tester and Krysten Sinema both say they are "undecided" and Diane Feinstein is not able to vote. With Feinstein gone, only one Democrat needs to oppose to kill her nomination.

quote:

Complicating matters further is the absence of California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who has remained in her home state since February while recovering from shingles. Feinstein, 89, has missed dozens of votes since then, stalling confirmation proceedings for Biden judicial nominees, and now potentially a Cabinet secretary.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1649191120469934082

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

lil poopendorfer posted:

the possibility of trans women having unfair advantage over their cis competitors never really comes up

I don't know where you're getting this from but competitive advantage is the main argument for current transphboes and TERFS.

The argument is the classic "we must protect the children" from the impending domination of female sports by AMAB athletes, that girls sports are under threat.

EDIT:

The other big argument from the phobes is "protecting the children" from parents who want to railroad them into transitioning out of excessive wokeness.

Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Apr 21, 2023

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Oxyclean
Sep 23, 2007


A particular article sticks in my mind that was basically "this girl had her win STOLEN by a trans girl" and I feel like it's not the only time I've seen it framed as a "this person would have won if not for the unfairness of trans people in the sport/competition" with never the consideration that, uhh maybe they just lost because they weren't the best? It's big main-character-syndrome whenever they find someone to act personally aggrieved about the presence of transwomen in sports.

like gotta think about all the sports I would have won if not for the unfairness of letting people taller then me compete, letting people stronger then me compete, people who care more then me compete, people who are more fit then me compete, people who had access to better nutrition then me compete, people who had better sleep then me compete...

that said it almost feels like a waste of energy pointing any of it out because it's always such transparent concern trolling.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply