(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Owling Howl posted:Ukraine did not shoot down 300 planes and 300 helicopters. Full stop.
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Apr 28, 2023 15:53
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Owling Howl posted:Ukraine did not shoot down 300 planes and 300 helicopters. Full stop. I didn't notice they split helicopters and planes and are claiming 600+ shot down in total, yeah that's ridiculous.
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Apr 28, 2023 15:57
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Popete posted:I didn't notice they split helicopters and planes and are claiming 600+ shot down in total, yeah that's ridiculous. Maybe they are throwing certain types of drones that are more aircraft-like (like Orlan drones) in with aircraft and the drone figure they cite is quadcopter type drones? Maybe? I'm just trying to give them the benefit of the doubt.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:21
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Charliegrs posted:Maybe they are throwing certain types of drones that are more aircraft-like (like Orlan drones) in with aircraft and the drone figure they cite is quadcopter type drones? Maybe? I'm just trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. That would at best be disingenuous. Really all those numbers seem outlandish.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:27
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Popete posted:That would at best be disingenuous. Oryx includes drones and has confirmed nearly 400. Given the lifetime of drones at the front and the difficulty in confirmation of them, 600 is not outlandish.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:33
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fatherboxx posted:No, they haven't, they state a completely ridiculous number of KIA that devalues it as a whole. Better to ignore it and leave as a morale-raising tool for Ukrainian public. Had they actually managed to kill/wound 200k Russian troops Ukraine would have won the war.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:40
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The leaked FSB numbers were ~110,000 so I imagine the real number is in between.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:51
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Had they actually managed to kill/wound 200k Russian troops Ukraine would have won the war. If you have better numbers, present them.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:53
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Had they actually managed to kill/wound 200k Russian troops Ukraine would have won the war. The leaks seem to disagree with you there, but OK, clearly internet goon Obvious knows better than the entire US intelligence service
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Apr 28, 2023 16:53
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Yeah. I take the KI numbers not at face value, but as a "ballpark" and also a good indicator of when Russia's gotten a black eye. Sure, maybe 18 artillery guns weren't destroyed, but if they're reporting that they definitely killed more than a handful so arty had a Bad Day. 200k casualties doesn't seem outlandish when you consider they've thrown upwards of 400K people at Ukraine and have been suffering setbacks for the better part of a year, minus one meatgrinder of a front.
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Apr 28, 2023 16:55
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plogo posted:The leaked FSB numbers were ~110,000 so I imagine the real number is in between. US estimates from the leaked documents are 40-50k KIA BBC/Mediazona confirmed open source headcount is at 20k (absolute base level due to methodology) Dont know what are the "leaked FSB documents", sounds sensationalistic. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Apr 28, 2023 |
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Apr 28, 2023 17:37
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50k killed could easily equate to 200k casualties, and not all wounded are taken out of action, many get patched up and sent back to the front.
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Apr 28, 2023 17:46
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It would be amusing to think that infrafactional infighting in Russia has gotten to the point where FSB can't get accurate stats from the MoD. Alas no chance as long as Vova lives. Also will people please, PLEASE be specific if they mean killed or overall casualties when they drop a number. Otherwise it's like saying that some distance is 57883. Feet, kilometers, nautical miles?
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Apr 28, 2023 17:51
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Deteriorata posted:Oryx includes drones and has confirmed nearly 400. Given the lifetime of drones at the front and the difficulty in confirmation of them, 600 is not outlandish. UAVs are a separate category, though--they're claiming almost 2500 of those.
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Apr 28, 2023 17:52
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IIRC, in WW2 most militaries had roughly a 1:4 KIA:WIA ratio, so that's roughly what I'd expect to see in Ukraine. Given we know at least 20000 russian soldiers are dead, that puts our lower bound KIA+WIA at 100k, which makes 200k a reasonable speculation on the actual figure.
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Apr 28, 2023 17:55
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Rust Martialis posted:If you have better numbers, present them. No one has better numbers, that's the point. Combat causalities in conflicts is pretty much always a crap shoot because both sides lie through their teeth and often the only time you actually have real numbers is when total cauasalties are <1000 because it's way easier to track.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:00
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The leaked US estimates put Russian casualties (killed + wounded, to be clear) at around 200k, while Ukraine is at around 130k. It also suggests Russia has sustained around twice as many deaths as Ukraine. Obviously the US could just be wrong but given the nature of the leak it seems unlikely that those figures are an intentional lie.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:04
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Nothingtoseehere posted:IIRC, in WW2 most militaries had roughly a 1:4 KIA:WIA ratio, so that's roughly what I'd expect to see in Ukraine. Given we know at least 20000 russian soldiers are dead, that puts our lower bound KIA+WIA at 100k, which makes 200k a reasonable speculation on the actual figure. Hasn't modern combat medicine vastly increased the latter side of that ratio since then, though?
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Apr 28, 2023 18:09
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Fuschia tude posted:Hasn't modern combat medicine vastly increased the latter side of that ratio since then, though? Well field medicine has probably improved things are a lot deadlier too. I don't think we have many other modern peer to peer large scale conflicts to compare this too where we could estimate KIA:WIA. Even the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where pretty lop-sided in favour of one side.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:12
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Fuschia tude posted:Hasn't modern combat medicine vastly increased the latter side of that ratio since then, though? Yes, but somehow I don't think Russian soldiers/Wagner are getting the best of care.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:16
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Saint Celestine posted:Yes, but somehow I don't think Russian soldiers/Wagner are getting the best of care. The Russians used tampons.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:19
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There has been reporting here and there of Russian soldiers having absolutely godawful field first aid kits (think, tourniquet + vodka). None of us here know the actual figures, but assuming Russian care for their wounded has improved significantly since WW II is probably a bit of a stretch. On 200k casualties, I don't see how this is completely outside of the realm of possibility, or how the war would be won if that number were true? The initial invading force was reported at around 160-170k (+LNR & DNR?), there was some reinforcement stream (unquantified) when it was clear their first shock & awe strategy didn't work, and the mobilization figures floated were around 400k. Sooo, even with numbers that have been reported, 160+400-200 = 360k (iimplied) soldiers still on the front. I know this math probably doesn't stand to much scrutiny, but at least it's indicative.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:19
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Owling Howl posted:Ukraine did not shoot down 300 planes and 300 helicopters. Full stop. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1525601973336125440 They were claiming 200+ a year ago. Not that I'm defending it, but that's the timeframe. I think there's a lot of mismatch between different groups attributing UAVs and big drones as planes. And then it all getting lumped into one category. It's really not worth thinking that much about though. Both sides are drumming up stats for propaganda.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:21
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fatherboxx posted:US estimates from the leaked documents are 40-50k KIA Worth noting that Ukrainian and I suspect US estimates include LDNR combatants, while BBC only monitor soldiers from Russia proper, and they count Wagner mercenaries separately.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:26
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Tigey posted:The United States Army spent billions on improving medical care and developing world-class bandages to stop their soliders bleeding out. My understanding is that the bandages that stop bleeding are basically just using sterile kaolin clay.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:30
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OAquinas posted:Yeah. I take the KI numbers not at face value, but as a "ballpark" and also a good indicator of when Russia's gotten a black eye. Sure, maybe 18 artillery guns weren't destroyed, but if they're reporting that they definitely killed more than a handful so arty had a Bad Day. I seem to remember them breaking out wounded early on in the war (it was always just 3x their killed number) and then only started reporting this "liquidated" number. That's why these numbers are outlandish, this is, to the best of my knowledge, claimed kills, not casualties.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:38
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Fuschia tude posted:Hasn't modern combat medicine vastly increased the latter side of that ratio since then, though? With prompt cas-evac like Western forces have in conflicts where they enjoy air supremacy, absolutely. That is not the reality for Russia or Ukraine.
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Apr 28, 2023 18:40
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Bar Ran Dun posted:My understanding is that the bandages that stop bleeding are basically just using sterile kaolin clay. Last I heard it's ground up shellfish shells somehow, or something related to it. When I went in they were very, very specific about asking everyone for shellfish allergies repeatedly during the medical exam portion of entry. Like, it was a disqualifying condition to have. Was years ago so changes could have happened between then and now.
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Apr 28, 2023 19:07
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quote:QuikClot Combat Gauze® XL is a 2-ply, 10 cm x 3,6 meter strip of soft, white, nonwoven, hydrophilic gauze impregnated with kaolin, an inorganic mineral that is both safe and effective in accelerating the body's natural clotting cascade without any exothermic reactions or use of animal or human proteins. Seems that any serious food allergy that can lead to anaphylaxis can be disqualifying from enlistment. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Apr 28, 2023 |
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Apr 28, 2023 19:26
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fatherboxx posted:US estimates from the leaked documents are 40-50k KIA It's from this new york times article. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/world/europe/russia-intelligence-leaks.html i was referring to casualties not KIA. ny times posted:F.S.B. officials, the document says, contend that the ministry’s toll did not include the dead and wounded among the Russian National Guard, the Wagner mercenary force or fighters fielded by Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya. The sundry fighting forces that the Kremlin has deployed in Ukraine have sometimes acted at cross purposes, further complicating Russia’s military effort.
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Apr 28, 2023 19:32
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Nitrox posted:It's not a report that could be checked or scrutinized, because they explain absolutely nothing, never have. They just publish weekly numbers and that's it. So let's not take it at face value Nobody is. The posters immediately above you pointed out that Ukraine's MoD estimates largely correlate with those of the US DoD and UK MoD, OSINT analysis, leaked intelligence assessments, etc. Is it possible that all of those entities are in some coordinated conspiracy to publish simliar numbers. Sure, I suppose. Is it plausible? Not really. It's more plausible that they are all coming to the same wrong conclusion for different reasons, but even that is a stretch. A preponderance of evidence indicates that Ukraine's MoD numbers are fairly accurate, and certainly accurate enough for reasonable policy decisions to be made. Cpt_Obvious posted:Had they actually managed to kill/wound 200k Russian troops Ukraine would have won the war. Well, they do seem to have caused Russia to lose the war. Also, I think you're incorrectly discounting the effectiveness of Russia's mobilization. It was not successful enough to launch a successful offensive, but remains to be seen if it was effective enough to wage a successful defense. Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Apr 28, 2023 |
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Apr 28, 2023 19:57
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This is just something personally interesting because when the war started in February '22, I made Hugo Simberg's Wounded Angel into my Windows background image. It still is. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1652008430972878849 Obligatory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdZn7k5rZLQ
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Apr 28, 2023 20:38
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So other than the F-16 being more modern than the MIG29, would it really enhance Ukraine's performance in the upcoming counteroffensive?
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Apr 28, 2023 20:43
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Willo567 posted:So other than the F-16 being more modern than the MIG29, would it really enhance Ukraine's performance in the upcoming counteroffensive? It would allow Ukraine to use western air-to-air missiles, which have much longer range than what they use now among other advantages. That would reduce the risk of Russian CAS. They would also be able to use more air-launched precision fires, which the west has quite a lot of.
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Apr 28, 2023 20:50
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bird food bathtub posted:Last I heard it's ground up shellfish shells somehow, or something related to it. It was discovered because folks that handle kaolin as a bulk commodity would use it to stop cuts from bleeding. I used to do cleanliness surveys for bulk kaolin loading. They use it in glossy paper making. It’s an incredibly sensitive cargo that needs a tremendous amount of hold preparation. It’s almost literally a white glove inspection. One of the vessels that used to engage in the trade was alongside in the tsunami in Japan. If you read about the tsunami one ship cut their lines and immediately got underway and managed to get perpendicular to the tsunami. I worked with that chief officer on kaolin and alumina ships for years. His name was Oleg. Looked like an Eastern European Danny Devito. That vessel was always Ukraine/ Eastern European crew with a Russian Captain. To bring this back around I’ve been told that crewing model is still functioning. Basically the Russians officers get on and are like yep, nah I don’t need to go home and get drafted I’ll just keep working forever. They’re putting up Filipino length contracts / time on vessels 18 - 24 + months apparently.
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Apr 28, 2023 20:58
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Willo567 posted:So other than the F-16 being more modern than the MIG29, would it really enhance Ukraine's performance in the upcoming counteroffensive? As mentioned, they could use Western missiles, which would give them additional capability, but tbh with how saturated the entire area is with Anti-air poo poo no one is likely going to be able to do much of anything with them. I would not want to be a pilot in this conflict.
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Apr 28, 2023 21:41
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Willo567 posted:So other than the F-16 being more modern than the MIG29, would it really enhance Ukraine's performance in the upcoming counteroffensive? Here is a nice write up comparing them to current capabilities: https://twitter.com/GresselGustav/status/1651977746619219970
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Apr 28, 2023 21:47
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https://twitter.com/lunchbox997/status/1650952334057566209 Remote-controlled machine gun controlled by a Steam Deck.
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Apr 28, 2023 21:56
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bird food bathtub posted:Last I heard it's ground up shellfish shells somehow, or something related to it. When I went in they were very, very specific about asking everyone for shellfish allergies repeatedly during the medical exam portion of entry. Like, it was a disqualifying condition to have. Was years ago so changes could have happened between then and now. You’re probably thinking of chitogauze https://safeguardmedical.com/products/haemorrhage-control/prometheus-chitogauze-xr-pro/ in which the active ingredient is chitosan. I like to think of it as medical prawn crackers.
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Apr 28, 2023 22:00
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Deteriorata posted:[url]https://twitter.com/lunchbox997/status/1650952334057566209[url] The cyberpunk dream we always had. Some of the things I've seen between this war and the Myanmar civil war makes me realize we're a lot closer to weird tech-infused conflicts in the future than we realize. Even while WW2-era anti-aircraft are mounted to semi trucks to be used as direct fire as infantry charge trench lines.
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Apr 29, 2023 02:29
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