(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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A little clarification on the Kirby comment courtesy of Kofman: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1653159844512247809?s=20
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May 1, 2023 23:23
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Is he claiming there are 50K Wagner casualties? Cuz I don't even think Wagner is that big https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64050719
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May 1, 2023 23:26
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Is he claiming there are 50K Wagner casualties? Cuz I don't even think Wagner is that big https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64050719 "Close to half of KIA [20,000] are Wagner & majority of those were convicts."
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May 1, 2023 23:28
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Right but if half the deaths are Wagner then half the casualties should be wagner too. 10k deaths should mean at least 30-40k total casualties. And that's twice the size of wagner.
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May 1, 2023 23:30
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Right but if half the deaths are Wagner then half the casualties should be wagner too. The assumption is there's normal WIA:KIA ratios. Wagner doesn't care about the convicts.
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May 1, 2023 23:33
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Right but if half the deaths are Wagner then half the casualties should be wagner too. They cycled a lot of guys through. The total number may have stayed roughly constant, but they're different guys. If you take 1,000 casualties a day and also add 1,000 recruits a day, in 100 days you'll have 100,000 casualties without raising your total number of soldiers.
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May 1, 2023 23:34
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Right but if half the deaths are Wagner then half the casualties should be wagner too. I think the implication is that Wagner mercenaries are killed at a drastically higher rate than regular soldiers, at least compared to wounded.
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May 1, 2023 23:39
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Deteriorata posted:They cycled a lot of guys through. The total number may have stayed roughly constant, but they're different guys. Not really, you're neglecting that over a reasonable timeline a non-zero proportion of your casualties recover and return to the fight.
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May 2, 2023 00:01
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Dandywalken posted:Vietnam was like ~60k US KIA I think Yes relative to a US population of about 200 million in 1970 Russian population in 2021 was about 143 million. So depending on which KIA numbers one uses it is nearing Vietnam or Vietnam bad for Russia in less than a year . Compared to ten years for the Vietnam war from 65 to 75. That’s extremely socially disruptive even if they suppress the disruption.
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May 2, 2023 00:11
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Someone blew up an electric pylon in St. Peterburg region https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1652924829115330562?t=hlg-0l12Ib8CGC2-2THEUQ&s=19
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May 2, 2023 00:32
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Deteriorata posted:They cycled a lot of guys through. The total number may have stayed roughly constant, but they're different guys. Plus the very simple math that even for wagner members who lived unscathed, some of them are on 6 month contracts. It’s not like an army raises 20,000 guys and then in 20 years those 20,000 troops all retire and 20,000 new guys show up.
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May 2, 2023 00:41
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yes relative to a US population of about 200 million in 1970 Also, the demographics in 1965 skewed way, way younger.
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May 2, 2023 00:58
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mutata posted:I think the implication is that Wagner mercenaries are killed at a drastically higher rate than regular soldiers, at least compared to wounded. The professional mercenaries weren’t the ones dying in droves. It was mostly the low-skill easily-replaced (until recently) prisoners who roll in as the first wave in each attack. Similar with regular Russian military and mobiks, but the prisoners’ lives have even less value in the eyes of their commanders. Late edit: It looks like I was wrong. The professional mercs seem to have also been dying in slightly smaller droves. The excellent thread below pins non-inmate PMC losses at (very) roughly 1/3 of inmate losses. https://twitter.com/massdara/status/1653411944840282114?s=46&t=xh4hN1hNNwF9_Cq439R6TA the other hand fucked around with this message at 22:54 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 04:40
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Er, yeah, I guess I included them in the "mercenaries" umbrella, but I see your point.
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May 2, 2023 05:17
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Storkrasch posted:Would a stalemate actually be better than a full withdrawal? Seems like you're just creating trouble for yourself over territory that just isn't that useful for Russia. Sure, they'll create problems in Ukraine, but those problems will apply just as much in Russia. This isn't a Transnistria or Abkhazia situation, it's a "turn your country into a global pariah in order to gain some bombed out cities with a population of traumatised pensioners who don't want to live in your country". I'm under the impression that even if it results in a partial stalemate Putin can spin it as partially successful to the Russian Public and the rest of the nationalists. A full retreat back to 2014 borders would be a clear defeat. I can't see him resorting to WMDs like Nuclear Weapons. He's supposed to liberate Ukraine, not destroy it. And every Country including China has made it clear that WMDs are not acceptable.
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May 2, 2023 05:37
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I'm under the impression that even if it results in a partial stalemate Putin can spin it as partially successful to the Russian Public and the rest of the nationalists. A full retreat back to 2014 borders would be a clear defeat. It's far more likely that Russia resumes limited underground nuclear testing as a form of saber rattling rather than just suddenly deciding to delete something from the map. They have some new(er) warhead designs to test, and they don't have the same supercomputer availability to do it "cleanly."
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May 2, 2023 06:25
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Wagner has also been forced to recruit from locals in its African operations. I guess it's only a matter of time before we see them in eastern Ukraine.
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May 2, 2023 07:07
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Libluini posted:Russia actually tried this under Soviet-regime in the Polish-SU war and when they pushed beyond the borders of Poland to take Warsaw, their army quite literally disintegrated because the Red Army soldiers in that stage of the war had been recruited on the promise of defending the motherland, and invading and taking Poland wasn't that, so the desertion rate skyrocketed after it became clear there was no second miracle to save the Polish army and the war was basically over. Either you are confused about the sequence of events or explaining yourself very poorly. What moment are you referring to? What second miracle?
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May 2, 2023 08:07
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Nenonen posted:Wagner has also been forced to recruit from locals in its African operations. I guess it's only a matter of time before we see them in eastern Ukraine. There are some brutal casualties in the Sahel that could fully explain that recruiting. The Burkina army is sometimes incurring triple digit casualties a day and is mobilizing/arming untrained people's fighters to go fight the terrorists in large numbers. Mali government forces with Wagner is not having a good time of it in Mali either.
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May 2, 2023 08:30
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Nenonen posted:Wagner has also been forced to recruit from locals in its African operations. I guess it's only a matter of time before we see them in eastern Ukraine. I doubt it, it is too expensive to transport them and it would be even harder to command the untrained recruits with a language barrier added.
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May 2, 2023 12:32
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fatherboxx posted:I doubt it, it is too expensive to transport them and it would be even harder to command the untrained recruits with a language barrier added. Idk, bullets sound the same in every language and the first time you see a “nullification” I think the point will get across pretty clearly. Wagner has also been active in several African countries before, so I’m not so sure a language barrier is as high as we’d think/hope. 
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May 2, 2023 12:42
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Icon Of Sin posted:Idk, bullets sound the same in every language and the first time you see a “nullification” I think the point will get across pretty clearly. There's still plenty of ethnic undesirables in Russia itself. Bringing in African mercs might happen, but it would be tricky to do in significant numbers I assume, and therew ould have to be some incentive to recruits as I'm unsure if the Wagner presence in Africa and Russia's chains of communication and transport from Central and Western Africa to Europe are sufficient to just press-gang large numbers against their will to get them to the front.
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May 2, 2023 12:50
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There was at least one Zambian student who died in Ukraine fighting for Wagner. But he was recruited in a Russian prison. https://www.africanews.com/2022/11/29/unknown-aircraft-targets-wagner-base-in-c-african-republic/ For almost a year now, there's been a lot of propaganda talk about bringing in literally millions of eager volunteer freedom fighters from Syria, North Korea, Mali, etc., and literally nothing has happened since, as far as anyone can tell, to make this a reality. Western intelligence have no information about foreign recruits being shipped to Russia for training, or even any Wagner recruiting recruiting campaigns for war in Ukraine abroad (if anything, they're starting to recruit more Russians to send to Africa again).
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May 2, 2023 13:08
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Paladinus posted:There was at least one Zambian student who died in Ukraine fighting for Wagner. But he was recruited in a Russian prison. can north koreans even freely leave? i guess maybe the regime there would be okay leasing people as yet another shady revenue stream to supplement drugs and ransomware, maybe
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May 2, 2023 13:52
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:can north koreans even freely leave? North Korea already leases its workers to various Russian work camps, has been going on for ages.
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May 2, 2023 13:54
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:can north koreans even freely leave? They already lease out NK people to Russia and China, where they're toiling away as labourers in factories, forestry, and other areas.
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May 2, 2023 14:00
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Libluini posted:Russia actually tried this under Soviet-regime in the Polish-SU war and when they pushed beyond the borders of Poland to take Warsaw, their army quite literally disintegrated because the Red Army soldiers in that stage of the war had been recruited on the promise of defending the motherland, and invading and taking Poland wasn't that, so the desertion rate skyrocketed after it became clear there was no second miracle to save the Polish army and the war was basically over. That's... not what happened. "We would totally won this war if not for desertion rate" sounds like something straight out of Russian history book.
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May 2, 2023 14:32
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Edit:^^^^ a lot of people forgetting that war was a single facet of the larger Russian civil war. The reds were battling a dozen different factions at the same time.Qtotonibudinibudet posted:can north koreans even freely leave? There is regular civilian movement between China and the dprk including immigration, work visas, even tourism. Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 14:54 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 14:45
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Szarrukin posted:That's... not what happened. "We would totally won this war if not for desertion rate" sounds like something straight out of Russian history book. Yeah, that was more the Stalinists' scapegoat to cover for Soviet failures and Polish successes. There were more important contributing factors like the Poles' decryption of Soviet radio codes.
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May 2, 2023 14:52
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Tevery Best posted:Either you are confused about the sequence of events or explaining yourself very poorly. What moment are you referring to? What second miracle? While i'd like to discuss this war in more detail, this is not the MilHist-thread. Also, you can probably read up on this on Wikipedia, with sources and poo poo.
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May 2, 2023 15:12
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https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1653131587226050569 I'm assuming Arestovich isn't reliable due to only being an ex-advisor and has no information on the counter offensive plans?
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May 2, 2023 17:18
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Nobody on Ukraine's side is going to be making meaningful accurate statements on the scope, timing, goals etc. of any coming offensive, regardless of their access to information. It's just bluster.
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May 2, 2023 18:26
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Not a great sign when your tweet eye rolls its own source!
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May 2, 2023 18:30
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Not a great sign when your tweet eye rolls its own source! Well that's why I asked. I know that he resigned because he said that Ukraine intercepted a missile aimed at Dnipro when they didn't and Russia used it for propaganda.
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May 2, 2023 18:56
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I've always thought that the Ukraine interception rate was overinflated for propaganda purposes but I guess if even OSINT radio monitors can get advance notice of missile strikes there's no reason the military can't do the same and prepare. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1652838944797519877?cxt=HHwWisCz-euQiPAtAAAA Not sure how much 6 hours of advance prep can help but it seems pretty significant to me.
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May 2, 2023 19:11
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Definitely gives you time to get people to bunkers and move assets your definitely don't want to get blown up.
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May 2, 2023 19:35
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:can north koreans even freely leave? it's miles away from any realistic definition of 'freely leave' — most of the movement that exists is tightly controlled labor transfer, usually to work camps. the country is otherwise a very profoundly aggressive example of restrictions on freedom on movement in general, including restrictions against the vast majority of the populace, strict bans on any unsanctioned relocation between provinces within the country, the general criminalization of any emigration, and common practice of forced resettlement
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May 2, 2023 19:59
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1653456888971837462 Managing risks on those sorts of ops seems scary....
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May 2, 2023 20:04
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Ukraine forms eight new ‘storm’ brigades for counterattack "Move to recruit up to 40,000 troops aimed at inflicting heavy losses on Russia in Bakhmut area" I guess they are still into the idea of grinding in Bakhmut
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May 2, 2023 20:19
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1653131587226050569 Arestovich is a known (entertaining) bullshit artist and was one even when he was an official and the account you are quoting is usually even worse
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May 2, 2023 20:32
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