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E: Beat the post timer and double posted.
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May 2, 2023 17:22
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| # ? May 24, 2024 06:36 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:Again; who would have standing to sue if the White House just ignored the debt ceiling? Congress could sue the Treasury Department for violating separation of powers and attempting to take away Congressional control of federal borrowing and spending power that is guaranteed to them under Article I.
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May 2, 2023 17:22
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The bigger issue of doing one weird trick to save the global economy is that it completely eliminates the stability that everyone leans on the US dollar for. Even if we ultimately pass something the uncertainty surrounding the whole thing can be super loving damaging as well.
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May 2, 2023 17:27
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haveblue posted:ChatGPT This is 1000% going to happen, the AI hyperfixation is at an all-time high for the richest, most oblivious people and they do not believe writers are worth the money (they are!).
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May 2, 2023 17:33
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Make the 14th amendment argument and then mint the coin (with George Soros on it) anyway
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May 2, 2023 17:37
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cr0y posted:The bigger issue of doing one weird trick to save the global economy is that it completely eliminates the stability that everyone leans on the US dollar for. Even if we ultimately pass something the uncertainty surrounding the whole thing can be super loving damaging as well. Would it? It's not like we're going to stop paying creditors, it just gets rid of the arbitrary ceiling that we have internally. If anything it seems like it would be beneficial to not have the US on the verge of default every year.
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May 2, 2023 17:40
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Congress could sue the Treasury Department for violating separation of powers and attempting to take away Congressional control of federal borrowing and spending power that is guaranteed to them under Article I. Sure. But the white house just argues they have to spend money as directed by congress. Congress has passed two things that can not be simultaneously be obeyed. I don't think any judge is dumb enough to side with congress and tank the entire global economy. The whole idea of the political hot potato is NOT to get caught holding it.
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May 2, 2023 17:44
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CuddleCryptid posted:Would it? It's not like we're going to stop paying creditors, it just gets rid of the arbitrary ceiling that we have internally. If anything it seems like it would be beneficial to not have the US on the verge of default every year. That's why it's uncertainty- maybe we do intend to stop paying creditors, because our laws have become so hosed that that's not permitted any more. Or maybe we don't intend to stop paying creditors, but Republicans gently caress around too much and we miss a deadline, which also counts as default even if the money will be there tomorrow It would absolutely be beneficial to get rid of the debt ceiling but that has to be done in a way such that the entire government and every economic actor considers the matter settled, even the most shitheaded Republicans. That means either a law passed by Congress or a SCOTUS decision saying explicitly that additional debt can be issued. Until we have one of those things, there's uncertainty haveblue fucked around with this message at 18:04 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 17:51
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:If you want an ugly state look at Iowa.
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May 2, 2023 17:58
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My girlfriend lived in Roswell before she moved in with me, and holy gently caress was that corner of New Mexico nothing but ugly barren nothingness.
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May 2, 2023 18:05
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Yeah I've heard Roswell is a rather alien landscape
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May 2, 2023 18:24
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Noting matters on the debt ceiling until the last minute. Until then, everyone keeps up the pretense that they won't budge. They always say they won't back off. If they said they would, it would ruin their negotiation tactic.
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May 2, 2023 18:26
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Jaxyon posted:Noting matters on the debt ceiling until the last minute. Until then, everyone keeps up the pretense that they won't budge. Yeah but it’s extra exciting because even the treasury can’t say when the last minute is
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May 2, 2023 18:31
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Tayter Swift posted:Yeah I've heard Roswell is a rather alien landscape Having grown up there it’s marginally more interesting and more pleasant to drive through than West Texas but that’s not saying much. At least ruidoso and the Rockies are only an hour away.
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May 2, 2023 18:32
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The entire government has apparently been planning and operating under "one weird trick!" rules for a while. This measure isn't that likely to succeed, but it is extremely funny and well-planned. Essentially: - House Democrats had a backbencher Representative introduce a boring innocuous sounding bill all the way back in January. quote:The only clue to the gambit was in the title of the otherwise obscure hodgepodge of a bill: “The Breaking the Gridlock Act.” quote:Mr. DeSaulnier was picked to sponsor the measure because his low profile meant there was likely to be little attention to his bill. In contrast, any legislation introduced by Representative Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, the Democratic chairman of the Rules Committee, would have drawn attention immediately, and Republicans might have been able to take action to derail it. - The bill had hundreds of random provisions that touched every single jurisdiction of every single committee in the House, so every House committee had it sent to them. quote:The discharge petition process can be time-consuming and complicated, so Democrats who devised the strategy started early and carefully crafted their legislative vehicle. Insiders privately refer to the measure as a “Swiss Army knife” bill — one that was intended to be referred to every single House committee in order to keep open as many opportunities as possible for forcing it to the floor. - Republicans ignored this bill and never brought it up for consideration. quote:Mr. DeSaulnier’s intent was never to pass the elements of the bill, though he favors them all. It was to create what is known on Capitol Hill as a shell of a bill that would ultimately serve as the basis for a discharge petition — and a way out of the debt limit standoff. - Under House rules, if a bill is unaddressed in committee for 30 days, then you can start the process of a discharge petition. quote:Democrats say the beauty of the Mr. DeSaulnier’s bill — which Republicans have ignored — is that it long ago passed the threshold of being held in committee for at least 30 days, the minimum length of time to initiate a discharge petition to force action on legislation. And they said that the fact that it was under the jurisdiction of so many committees gave them several options for moving forward. - Normally, every vote in the House is determined by the speaker. With a discharge petition, you can go through a long process that eventually will allow a vote on a bill without the Speaker's approval, but only if a majority of House members sign on to it. Democrats have used this shell bill from January to start the clock on the discharge petition months early and filed an amendment to delete all the legislative text from the bill and replace it with one that raises the debt ceiling. They would still need 5 Republicans to support the effort, but the thought is that they can use the threat of the discharge petition to pressure Republicans and if they actually do default, then they can hopefully get 5 Republicans to vote for the discharge petition very quickly to pass a clean debt ceiling raise after they panic. https://twitter.com/juliehdavis/status/1653431537004691456 quote:House Democrats Move to Force a Debt-Limit Increase as Default Date Looms
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May 2, 2023 18:39
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haveblue posted:Yeah but it’s extra exciting because even the treasury can’t say when the last minute is This is the risk. We approach some vague deadline, Kevin McCarthy keeps telling himself he can hold out for another day, he goes to sleep one night and something slips and we default. Or he caves at the last minute but he can't wrangle the caucus together in time or gets stuck in traffic and we default. Boehner and Ryan were both willing to fall on their swords but KMac thinks he can get this camel through the eye of a needle: don't crash the economy, keep his job, win the standoff.
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May 2, 2023 18:44
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The 14th Amendment Section 4 Public Debt posted:The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void. Congress passed the spending, the debt is valid. Sue Congress and end the debt ceiling farce.
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May 2, 2023 18:46
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
I'm happy to see the Democrats actually willing to engage in legal skullduggery and underhanded measures so the Republicans don't just blow up the whole global economy. It's good to see them actually doing what's right rather than what's "legal" (even if everything they're doing is technically legal).
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May 2, 2023 18:53
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about the Dems actually doing something productive
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cr0y posted:The bigger issue of doing one weird trick to save the global economy is that it completely eliminates the stability that everyone leans on the US dollar for. Even if we ultimately pass something the uncertainty surrounding the whole thing can be super loving damaging as well. Using the 14th Amendment is the least One Weird Trick of all the options, including yearly pissing matches. Even if we suddenly reveal THE COIN, as long as we never actually default on a dime of debt we'll just lurch along and avoid the sudden death of the world's financial super computers frying themselves trying to divide by zero. Maybe if the world economy implodes we can get someone who believes in vaccines to run a credible primary against Biden. So we can look forward to something from the economic ashes of our own idiocy.
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May 2, 2023 18:55
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Independence posted:Congress passed the spending, the debt is valid. Sue Congress and end the debt ceiling farce. Article I also says that "the Congress shall have the power to pay the debts of the United States" and "to borrow money on the credit of the United States." The Constitutional Congress also said as part of their debates that congress has "sole power" to originate actions that raise revenue or spend money and that borrowing is "a power inseparably connected with that of raising revenue." This is one of those situations that the Supreme Court is supposed to be for. The most common rulings on the Supreme Court are 9-0 (or 8-1 since Clarence Thomas was appointed) because they are generally about statutory clarifications that have just never been ruled on in this specific scenario before. But, the few big divisive cases are always the ones where the constitution really isn't 100% clear. In those cases, it's basically up to your judicial philosophy or political ideology to pick which side is the correct one because there isn't an objectively correct answer.
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May 2, 2023 18:59
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Does anyone have standing to sue over the debt ceiling until the government fails to make a payment, though? I guess you could argue that sowing doubt about payments has materially harmed your bond holdings?
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May 2, 2023 19:04
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haveblue posted:Does anyone have standing to sue over the debt ceiling until the government fails to make a payment, though? Anyone who can prove they are materially impacted could sue once they prove the impact (or have a default happen, which would be de facto proof). If they wanted to go the 14th amendment route, then Congress could sue as soon as Treasury asserts that it has the power to pay debts without congressional approval and announces it will be acting on that authority.
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May 2, 2023 19:07
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haveblue posted:Does anyone have standing to sue over the debt ceiling until the government fails to make a payment, though? I think the larger point is that if the markets lose trust in the US dollar, for whatever reason, that will have very unpredictable effects on the various global markets. Even if no one can immediately sue over it.
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May 2, 2023 19:08
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Rappaport posted:I think the larger point is that if the markets lose trust in the US dollar, for whatever reason, that will have very unpredictable effects on the various global markets. Even if no one can immediately sue over it. Exactly, that's why waiting for a lawsuit isn't really a practical option. If Congress doesn't pre-emptively act, very bad things will happen no matter what the courts do
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May 2, 2023 19:16
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Seems like some uncertainty would be solved if the McCarthy would just publicly release his poo poo house budget, so everyone can see in writing that it’s poo poo.
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May 2, 2023 19:19
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The NYT has an extremely long (and interesting) piece on Krysten Sinema. It would blow up the page if I posted all of it. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1653450548928970771 There's a lot of interesting (and infuriating) reporting and details in there. But, the two biggest pieces of news are: - Sinema confirms reporting from last year that her support of the IRA was conditional on keeping the carried interest deduction loophole. It was her only concrete demand. quote:Two months after the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act was enacted, the path to the possible was found once again: Sinema and the Biden administration had reached a deal on the social-spending bill formerly known as Build Back Better. Now rechristened the Inflation Reduction Act, the initiative would spend roughly $500 billion to fund clean-energy programs and extend the Affordable Care Act. The accord with Sinema broke the deadlock, allowing for swift passage — and a win for the Biden White House. quote:Her solution was to finance the Inflation Reduction Act by increasing the corporate minimum tax, ensuring that all businesses would pay at least 15 percent. This, Sinema said, made more sense than increasing the overall corporate tax — “if your goal is tax fairness, which is mine.” - Sinema is not going to retire and is preparing to run a 3-way Senate race as an independent. She has developed her own fundraising network outside of the Democratic party and believes that her independence and maverick spirit will inspire a majority of independents and at least 25% of Democrats and Republicans to support her. She also allegedly still thinks she may be the first female President. quote:Unlike those earlier legislative tightrope walks, Sinema, who is known for avoiding the news media, was performing this one in public, accompanied by a half-dozen members of the Arizona press as well as myself. It was clear, if unstated, that this was the second reason for going to the border, which most Democrats have assiduously stayed away from amid growing Republican criticism: her 2024 re-election bid. She never once raised the subject during our four interviews over two months. When I did, a day before the border visit, she cheerfully replied: “I’m not going to answer that question. But I’m glad you started with it. Got it right out of the way!” quote:In truth, her answer had been apparent for months. Why else would she have left the Democratic Party four years into her term, if not to avoid a primary in which the party’s progressive base was guaranteed to turn its wrath on her? Why else was she (as The Wall Street Journal first reported) furtively holding staff retreats to lay out a timetable for commissioning polls and opposition research? Nothing she said in our conversations left me with the impression that she was putting a few final touches on her senatorial legacy on her way out the door to the private sector. At the same time, Sinema — whom even her closest friends describe as calculated, and who described herself to me as “very intentional” and “a planner” — almost never telegraphs her strategy. It suited her ends to freeze the 2024 machinations by leaving everyone guessing. quote:With no affiliated party to support her — with two parties, rather than just one, actively working to defeat her — the incumbent is gambling that she can attract donors and elected surrogates who are willing to risk angering others in their partisan tribe by supporting her. Since announcing his candidacy in late January, Gallego has outraised Sinema, $3.7 million to $2.1 million, but she has almost four times as much money in the bank as he does.
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May 2, 2023 19:20
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Global markets are already moving away from the dollar in small ways that are gaining steam. I guess the only question is whether there are enough True Believers in congress that they'd be willing to blow up the US's global economic hegemony to force cuts to welfare or whatever.
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May 2, 2023 19:21
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Dpulex posted:Seems like some uncertainty would be solved if the McCarthy would just publicly release his poo poo house budget, so everyone can see in writing that it’s poo poo. It's a pretty straightforward answer to why he isn't releasing it.
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May 2, 2023 19:21
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Jaxyon posted:Global markets are already moving away from the dollar in small ways that are gaining steam.
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May 2, 2023 19:23
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The word "maverick" should've been buried with McCain.
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May 2, 2023 19:25
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Dpulex posted:Seems like some uncertainty would be solved if the McCarthy would just publicly release his poo poo house budget, so everyone can see in writing that it’s poo poo. He did release his budget. It says he will cut discretionary spending by 23%. But, not Social Security, Medicare, or Defense. And if you pick any specific item, he says that obviously won't be included and it is a biased and bad faith reading of the plan. What about "cut spending by 23%, but say you will exclude every specific thing when asked," cutting unspecified "waste and abuse," and "work requirements for food stamps" doesn't sound like a real budget to you?
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May 2, 2023 19:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Anyone who can prove they are materially impacted could sue once they prove the impact (or have a default happen, which would be de facto proof). Standing has become a bunch of bullshit that Republican judges will wipe their rear end with then move on to do whatever they wanted to do anyway. Abso-loving-lutely nobody has standing of being harmed by mifepristone being approved 23 years ago and look where we are today.
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May 2, 2023 19:30
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FlamingLiberal posted:They’re never thinking about things that big. They would just prefer to gently caress over Biden and Dems going into 2024. That’s it. Well that's what I mean. It depends if there's enough of the idiotic true believers vs people pretending to be true believers, but who understand the consequences. I think most of the true believers are faking it for votes.
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May 2, 2023 19:33
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:If you want an ugly state look at Iowa. Iowa is very pretty along the Missisippi 
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May 2, 2023 19:34
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Nebraska? I guess it's beautiful if you like large flat cornfields.
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May 2, 2023 19:36
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Jaxyon posted:Nebraska? I guess it's beautiful if you like large flat cornfields. I had a painting instructor in college who was from California. He liked painting landscapes of places like Nebraska because the flat land reminded him of the ocean.
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May 2, 2023 19:37
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Jaxyon posted:Well that's what I mean. It depends if there's enough of the idiotic true believers vs people pretending to be true believers, but who understand the consequences.
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May 2, 2023 19:40
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cr0y posted:The bigger issue of doing one weird trick to save the global economy is that it completely eliminates the stability that everyone leans on the US dollar for. Even if we ultimately pass something the uncertainty surrounding the whole thing can be super loving damaging as well. Yeah like that time it hosed up the country's credit rating...which Republicans were at fault for and of course blamed Democrats for because how dare they not just let Republicans shoot the hostage. FlamingLiberal posted:I’m pretty sure we’ve reached the point where the true believers number ahead of the ones who are just pretending for votes Pretty much. The Tea Party wave replaced a whole ton of the performative psychopaths with actual psychopaths, and it's only gotten worse since.
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May 2, 2023 20:01
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Jaxyon posted:Nebraska? I guess it's beautiful if you like large flat cornfields. Nebraska can actually be pretty beautiful when you hit the areas which are irregularly hilly, so you're seeing waves of land rolling out in every direction. It could even make you temporarily forget you're in Nebraska.
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May 2, 2023 20:01
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Trump says he will boycott the Republican Presidential primary debates and likely the general election debates as well if he wins the nomination. However, members of his campaign think he might end up doing them if people criticize him during him during debates and he isn't there because he will feel compelled to respond. quote:In private comments to aides and confidants in recent weeks, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he does not want to breathe life into his Republican challengers by sharing the stage with them. Mr. Trump has led his nearest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by around 30 percentage points in recent polls. All other contenders are polling in single digits. Additionally, he is mad that the Reagan Library and Fox News are hosting the Republican debates. quote:Another motivation for Mr. Trump is revenge: The former president has a history with the two institutions hosting the first two Republican candidate debates. quote:Mr. Trump has been warring with Fox News since the conservative network announced on election night in 2020 that Joseph R. Biden Jr. won the state of Arizona. While the former president maintains warm relationships with several prime-time hosts — especially Sean Hannity, a reliable Trump booster — Mr. Trump’s overall relationship with Rupert Murdoch’s television network has deteriorated as the network showered Mr. DeSantis with praise over the past two years while constricting its coverage of Mr. Trump. https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1653472841285660672
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May 2, 2023 20:04
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