Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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Vengarr: Jun 17, 2010; Smashed before noon

Yeah. Let�s not forget that Stalin was from Georgia. Power is the only criteria that matters in the end.

# ? May 2, 2023 22:33

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 12:49

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1653456888971837462

quote:

In the Bryansk region, Russia, the railway track was blown up again. Three explosions occurred near the Snezhetskaya station while the train was moving. As a result of the explosion, 8 wagons overturned. There were 70 carriages on the train in total.

Things are still blowing up in Russia it seems.

# ? May 2, 2023 22:38

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Vengarr posted:

Yeah. Let�s not forget that Stalin was from Georgia. Power is the only criteria that matters in the end.

How well can Kadyrov project power? He would need connections with Russians to rule Russia. I doubt he can occupy it.

# ? May 2, 2023 22:40

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Kadyrov is a small fish and the last time he made ambitious noises it was towards shoigu's job, though he seemed to back off from that pretty quickly and iirc his deal for the status quo with the Kremlin was renegotiated with increasingly favorable terms for him last year. Prigozhin similarly doesn't seem to be angling for anything more than maybe Shoigu's job and so far Shoigu remains far, far stronger than either of them. Shoigu's position in the current power structure is very strong, albeit it's anyone's guess how he does in a post Putin world. He doesn't have a reputation for executive-leadership ambition, which is pretty much why he's going to be very hard to remove from the MoD

Nessus posted:

How well can Kadyrov project power? He would need connections with Russians to rule Russia. I doubt he can occupy it.

Not well and he and his goons do not have a particularly good reputation in Russia. He bases some of his militia in the capital, but that's not even remotely the amount of people you'd need to, like, seize power. Kadyrov also has a lot of enemies.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:55 on May 2, 2023

# ? May 2, 2023 22:50

Dandywalken: Feb 11, 2014

Know who's good at making noises?

Ol' Strelkov. Keep an eye on him, Im seeing big moves in his future...

# ? May 2, 2023 23:12

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Computer viking posted:

Speaking of Russian opposition, here's an interesting enough news article. It's from Aftenposten, a centrist and mostly boring-in-the-good-way Norwegian newspaper, who still have people in Russia.

Source (paywalled; Norwegian)

This was a great read, thank you. The finale with the cops expressing disagreement was a great twist.

# ? May 2, 2023 23:33

Jasper Tin Neck: Nov 14, 2008; "Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Although Galeev is considered a flawed political analyst at best, he recently offered an interesting hypothesis: Medvedev is the obvious successor, which is also why he's in danger.

The spies are the kingmakers, but none of them will sit on the throne, because that's just going to give your spy colleagues ambitions. Medvedev on the other hand is a legitimate face for the regime. He's even been the president once (albeit only nominally). From Putin's point of view, Medvedev presents the greatest danger of a palace coup, should the Praetorians tire of the war and decide to proclaim a new emperor.

This might explain Medvedev's bizarre tirades: Medvedev is trying to prove his loyalty to Putin and dispel the notion that Russia could normalize relations with the west under him, because the tsarevich fears Vladimir the Terrible's paranoia.

# ? May 3, 2023 00:21

War Boi: Nov 1, 2021

GD_American posted:

They're not very capable, they've been largely mothballed forever apart from 1-2 they use for testing, and we don't want to give the Russians the chance to peek through the wreckage of even 2 generations' ago of our stealth technology.

Yes, I know about the one shot down over Serbia. Yes, the Russians learned some things from it. No, they didn't learn everything they could have with more airframe corpses to compare.

Sorry for post necromancy, but I�m just now getting caught up- but the way it was explained to me was that it was Soviet scientists who first conceived of and published on the concept of stealth. In typical Soviet fashion it went nowhere, meanwhile the AIA (Now NASIC) got their hands on a copy of the seminal technical paper on stealth and translated it for use by the U.S. and in typical U.S. fashion, it went somewhere.

Was I just told horse poo poo? I only ever worked on the planes, I never flew them.

# ? May 3, 2023 02:06

ded: Oct 27, 2005; Kooler than Jesus

I think in the skunk works book there is mention of them theorizing about using shapes to defeat certain wavelengths of radar. That was picked up and turned into the f-117.

# ? May 3, 2023 02:36

War Boi: Nov 1, 2021

ded posted:

I think in the skunk works book there is mention of them theorizing about using shapes to defeat certain wavelengths of radar. That was picked up and turned into the f-117.

I have the book just haven�t read it. Guess this is the bump I need to listen to the Audiobook. I�m driving from San Diego to Austin and back home to San Diego over the next few days and need something to listen to.

# ? May 3, 2023 03:22

my kinda ape: Sep 15, 2008; Everything's gonna be A-OK; Oven Wrangler

War Boi posted:

I have the book just haven�t read it. Guess this is the bump I need to listen to the Audiobook. I�m driving from San Diego to Austin and back home to San Diego over the next few days and need something to listen to.

It's a good book definitely give it a listen.

# ? May 3, 2023 03:43

Quackles: Aug 11, 2018; Pixels of Light.

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Although Galeev is considered a flawed political analyst at best,

Can someone explain Galeev's "China delenda est" viewpoint? He digressed into that in a twitter thread I was reading a while back without providing much sourcing and I found myself bewildered.

# ? May 3, 2023 05:56

Shaman Tank Spec: Dec 26, 2003; *blep*

Nordic public radio companies have conducted a joint investigation into the Nord Stream explosions, and they've uncovered evidence that certainly seems to credibly point at Russian naval vessels being involved.

tl;dr: Russian Baltic Sea Fleet vessels loitered in the area several times leading up to the explosions with their location beacons turned off. The ships in question were designed for mapping the sea bottom and deploying heavy loads and miniature subs.

Journalists: JYRI H�NNINEN, JESSE M�NTYSALO, MAGNUS BERGLUND
Link: https://yle.fi/a/74-20029798

Yle posted:

New information about Russian ships that loitered near the Nordstream explosion site
A joint investigation by Nordic public radios has revealed, that Russian ships were spotted at least three times near the explosion sites.

Russian ships visited the Nord Stream gas pipe explosion sites at least twice in June 2022. The last visit occurred less than week before the pipes exploded in September 2022. In one of these cases the ship was anchored in place for almost a day.

Russian ships moved in the area with their AIS location beacons turned off. Four Nordic public radio companies, Denmark's DR, Norway's NRK, Sweden's SVT and Finland's Yle were able to locate the ships despite this based on their radio communications. This information was verified using satellite imagery.

According to experts these findings play a meaningful role in determining what happened before the gas pipes exploded.

- This is interesting information and paints a convincing picture of Russia's covert actions near the pipes in the lead in to the explosion, says H.I. Sutton. He is an independent naval analyst and an expert on Russian underwater warfare.

A former British Naval Intelligence officer followed Russian radio communications. Until recently he worked in tracking Russia's Baltic Fleet's activities. He is not in active service anymore.

Radio surveillance reveals that on June 6. 2022 a ship belonging to the Russian Navy sailed out from the Kaliningrad naval base to the eastern side of Bornholm, where it arrived in the morning on June 7th.

The ship spent several hours on top of the exact location where Nord Stream 1 and 2 lie at the bottom of the sea. According to information from Denmark's government, three of the four explosions in the pipe occurred at this spot.

Nording public radio companies could not determine, which ship was involved in the incient. According to former British Naval Intelligence officer, the ship is a Russian naval command ship based in Kaliningrad and used military frequencies to communicate.

The next spotting of a Russian ship was a week later, on the 14th of June. It stayed in the exact same spot until the next day. According to the British Naval Intelligence officer, this ship was in all likelihood the 86 meter long research ship Sibiryakov of the Russian Navy. It is based in Lomonosov, near St. Petersburg and it normally does not operate in this area of the Baltic Sea. According to experts, the Sibiryakov is intended for mapping the ocean floor and conducting underwater surveillance.

- It has a lift which can lower things into the water, says naval officer and researcher Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen from the University of Copenhagen.

According to him this June sighting could have been from a mission of preparatory mapping, which the Sibiryakov was conducting.

- This is a research ship and it was used to do some mapping, which was done as early as June 2022.

The Sibiryakov was also sighted by satellite

DR, NRK, SVT and Yle have together with Norwegian satellite imaging company KSAT gone through satellite imagery from these locations and times. The company specializes in finding and tracking ships which operate without tracking beacons.

Sibiryakov's June cruise has been mapped in part from high resolution satellite images, and the rest with radar imaging and medium resolution satellite imaging.

Project leader Tony Bauna from KSAT has identified nine possible sightings of the Sibiryakov, which correspond with times and locations where the ship was sighted through radio traffic.

KSAT has measured the lengths and widths of ships and been able to map their movements. They have compared these sightings with other available information, and eliminated ships which were operating with their AIS beacons on. What remains are ships which sail dark, ie. do not reveal their location information.

One of these images is from June 15 2022, when the Sibiryakov was, based on its own radio traffic, at the northern explosion site. The images show two ships which are not running their location beacons. They are within a few hundred meters and a kilometer from the explosion site, respectively.

- I found two ships which are not broadcasting an AIS signal. They do not appear to be moving, and are stationary. There is no wake, says Tony Bauna.

The other ship's identity has not been confirmed by Nordic public radios.

The third sighting was within days of the explosions

SB-123, which is part of the Russian Baltic Sea Navy, arrived at the explosion sites on the 21st of September, five days before the explosions.

- It's a ship used as a support and rescue ship in submarine operations. It has a lift which can move considerable weights and can lift things to and from the bottom of the sea. It also has the capability of launching a mini submarine, says Jens Wenzel Kristofferson.

According to radio traffic, SB-123 arrived at the Bornholm area on the evening of the 21st of September. It remained in the area until the afternoon of the 22nd. The gas leaks were detected four days later.

The ship's movements have also been documented by tracking its route during the portions where it kept its AIS beacon on, as it was leaving its base and returning to it.

In April Danish military leaders verified that on the 22nd of September Russian naval ship SS-750 was also spotted at the leak site, and it is also equipped with a miniature submarine.

Experts: not a coincidence

Experts interviewed by Nordic public radios don't believe that the ships' presence could be explained by naval exercises, for example. Russian underwater warfare expert H.I. Sutton does believe this is a mere coincidence.

- These findings are convincing evidence of Russia's connection to the Nord Stream events.

Jens Wenzel Kristofferson also considers the findings meaningful.

- If it turns out that Russia committed the sabotage, then they appear to have gathered information, mapped out the operational area accurately, and then placed explosives using Russian naval vessels.

According to H.I. Sutton, which ever faction is behind the Nord Stream attack, they benefited from the uncertainty surrounding the event.

- Many people filled in the gaps with their own theories or prejudices, and therefore it's crucial that this type of documented information gets discovered.

Several theories abound

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipes has provoked international attention and raised several heated discussions in the UN Security Council, where Russia has repeatedly demanded an international investigation into the matter.

In public several different theories of the guilty party have been aired, as well as theories on how the attacks were conducted. In the days after the attack Russian president Vladimir Putin blamed "anglo saxons" on the attack.

Later an article by American journalist Symour Hersh gained worldwide attention. The article was based on an anonymous source and claimed that the United States in association with Nato had blown up the gas pipes under the cover of Nato's BALTOPS 22 exercise. These claims have not been backed up by any kind of believable evidence.

In March 2023 German media floated a theory about a pro-Ukraine faction. The German government has stated that clues pointing towards Ukraine could be a part of a so called "false flag" operation, intended to deceive.

The German media, T-Online, has previously mentioned the SB-123 vessel which was mentioned in this report as well. The paper had obtained information from German intelligence sources, which indicated the ship had been investigated as part of the Nord Stream sabotage.

None of the countries investigating the sabotage have presented findings or conclusions yet.

Nordic public radios contacted the Russian government through their embassy in Copenhagen for comments on their ships activities and movements in June and September 2022. They refused to answer.

# ? May 3, 2023 08:13

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward entirely reasonable theories for why Putin might think he stands to gain from the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward strong evidence indicative of Russian assets perpetrating the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"

Thanks for the article! Even though it's not going to convince Putin apologists, it's good to see that there's been meaningful progress towards assigning culpability.

# ? May 3, 2023 08:34

Deptfordx: Dec 23, 2013

I've been assuming Russia blew up the pipeline from day one because it has "Sekrit Galaxy Brain 3d Chess move" written all over it and that's how they roll now.

# ? May 3, 2023 10:20

uncleTomOfFinland: May 25, 2008

Cugel the Clever posted:

Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward entirely reasonable theories for why Putin might think he stands to gain from the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward strong evidence indicative of Russian assets perpetrating the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"

Thanks for the article! Even though it's not going to convince Putin apologists, it's good to see that there's been meaningful progress towards assigning culpability.

Tankies in early 2022: "But why would the Russians invade Ukraine?!? It would not make sense!"

# ? May 3, 2023 11:06

Shaman Tank Spec: Dec 26, 2003; *blep*

Deptfordx posted:

I've been assuming Russia blew up the pipeline from day one because it has "Sekrit Galaxy Brain 3d Chess move" written all over it and that's how they roll now.

Yeah I just immediately assumed it was a Russian thing, because it fits so perfectly with their dumb poo poo. They can spitefully deny the West something they assume we're desperate for, while also getting points at home because the god drat decadent Nato homonazis blew up their beautiful pipes. And I'm having a very hard time coming up with legit reasons for anyone else to do it, knowing that if someone uncovered actual evidence of a Nato operation or Finnish mine dolphins or whatever, the consequences could be catastrophic, and this risk would be worth it because...?

And as a reminder, this is the country that set up a GPS jamming station as close to Finland as possible in their national waters, and used (use?) it to interfere with commercial civilian flights in southern Finland, and "accidentally" violate our national waters and airspace pretty much weekly. It's just what they do.

And beyond that, there's ample historical evidence for them doing exactly this literal thing to give themselves excuses.

# ? May 3, 2023 11:12

Nuclear Tourist: Apr 7, 2005

The argument that Russia couldn't possibly be responsible always made me scratch my head. Maybe the Seymour Hersh conspiracy crank brain worms run deeper than I thought because I seem to recall people ITT insisting on as much.

# ? May 3, 2023 11:25

Dein Specht: Apr 5, 2023

WHAT AIRDEFENSE DOING

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1653734700014358538?s=20

Then there was a little fire

https://twitter.com/GoncharenkoUa/status/1653731673010319360

# ? May 3, 2023 13:29

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

Is this just the worst false flag attempt to whip up more popular support against the dastardly Ukrainians?

# ? May 3, 2023 13:38

ASAPI: Apr 20, 2007; I invented the line.

PurpleXVI posted:

Is this just the worst false flag attempt to whip up more popular support against the dastardly Ukrainians?

Either that or they got the international version of a bitch slap of the grandest scale.

# ? May 3, 2023 13:42

Soylent Pudding: Jun 22, 2007; We've got people!

Or it's domestic protestors and they'd rather blame it on Ukraine lest more Russians get encouraged to take a shot.

# ? May 3, 2023 13:44

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Cugel the Clever posted:

Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward entirely reasonable theories for why Putin might think he stands to gain from the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"
Everyone: *puts forward strong evidence indicative of Russian assets perpetrating the action*
Tankies: "But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?!?"

Thanks for the article! Even though it's not going to convince Putin apologists, it's good to see that there's been meaningful progress towards assigning culpability.

But why would Russia blow up their own kremlin?!?

# ? May 3, 2023 13:50

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Soylent Pudding posted:

Or it's domestic protestors and they'd rather blame it on Ukraine lest more Russians get encouraged to take a shot.

That�s my guess.

# ? May 3, 2023 13:54

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

FrozenVent posted:

That�s my guess.

That's kinda where I am as well. Reapers or Predators or any straight up military drones like that are BIG, like small planes. Best guess I can make out from that clip is on the larger end of a quad-copter build with an explosive payload. Not something you're going to be launching in one country then going to cruising altitude to get to the target.

# ? May 3, 2023 13:59

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

PurpleXVI posted:

Is this just the worst false flag attempt to whip up more popular support against the dastardly Ukrainians?

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1653738962555400193?s=20

There's a lot of unsurprising talk about that going on, and just like with the Dugina assassination, we won't know for sure. But just because it may have been ill-advised doesn't mean Ukraine didn't do it.

Alan Smithee posted:

But why would Russia blow up their own kremlin?!?

Title material.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:02

Tiny Timbs: Sep 6, 2008

Hannibal Rex posted:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1653738962555400193?s=20

There's a lot of unsurprising talk about that going on, and just like with the Dugina assassination, we won't know for sure. But just because it may have been ill-advised doesn't mean Ukraine didn't do it.

Title material.

They lost their Black Sea flagship and blamed their own incompetence. I don�t think they�re above humiliating themselves.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:05

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Tiny Timbs posted:

They lost their Black Sea flagship and blamed their own incompetence. I don�t think they�re above humiliating themselves.

Yeah, but they didn't sink their own false flagship in order to blame Ukraine and justify further escalation. They play down Ukraine's capability, not up.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:14

bulletsponge13: Apr 28, 2010

bird food bathtub posted:

That's kinda where I am as well. Reapers or Predators or any straight up military drones like that are BIG, like small planes. Best guess I can make out from that clip is on the larger end of a quad-copter build with an explosive payload. Not something you're going to be launching in one country then going to cruising altitude to get to the target.

I disagree- it looks and moves more like a fixed wing to me, and looked to be the size of something like Raven sized- something easily built, concealed, and flown. The bigger issue is the Range of Control- most drones that size have a fairly limited range of the controls (to my understanding), but it has a longer range as a fixed than quad. Cheap fixed wings are cheaper than quads the same size, and easier to pilot. Something like a Raven fixed wing SVBIED can be built by total novices with poo poo from Hobby Stores and/or a department store, and could also be the result of resistance movements, or UKR forces. It could be internal Russian resistance, UKR SoF type, or (my current running theory at the moment) the drone was released from a mother craft that got it close to the border, released, and the acted as a relay station for the pilot controls. The size could be a legit limitation, or a test of defenses.

I'm probably totally wrong, too.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:15

Dein Specht: Apr 5, 2023

Might have been the kind that they used to attack Engels airfield. That one was further away than Moscow btw.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:16

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

bulletsponge13 posted:

I disagree- it looks and moves more like a fixed wing to me, and looked to be the size of something like Raven sized- something easily built, concealed, and flown. The bigger issue is the Range of Control- most drones that size have a fairly limited range of the controls (to my understanding), but it has a longer range as a fixed than quad. Cheap fixed wings are cheaper than quads the same size, and easier to pilot. Something like a Raven fixed wing SVBIED can be built by total novices with poo poo from Hobby Stores and/or a department store, and could also be the result of resistance movements, or UKR forces. It could be internal Russian resistance, UKR SoF type, or (my current running theory at the moment) the drone was released from a mother craft that got it close to the border, released, and the acted as a relay station for the pilot controls. The size could be a legit limitation, or a test of defenses.

I'm probably totally wrong, too.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1653747610124009473?s=20
Bendett is the go to drone guy on twitter. He's who I'll pay attention to to cut through the bullshit speculations that will inevitably crop up.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:28

MrYenko: Jun 18, 2012; #2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Hannibal Rex posted:

Yeah, but they didn't sink their own false flagship in order to blame Ukraine and justify further escalation. They play down Ukraine's capability, not up.

False Flagship would be an excellent username, imo.

# ? May 3, 2023 14:36

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

There�s no gold fringe on that flagship. It is not subject to maritime law

# ? May 3, 2023 14:41

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Alan Smithee posted:

There�s no gold fringe on that flagship. It is not subject to maritime law

MARITIME LAW DOESN�T WORK THAT WAY

# ? May 3, 2023 14:43

Fivemarks: Feb 21, 2015

https://twitter.com/REDNOGGIN/status/1653180184214876163?s=20

# ? May 3, 2023 14:54

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr: Dec 22, 2018; I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

PurpleXVI posted:

Is this just the worst explosive horse cum shart in existence?

# ? May 3, 2023 15:12

Tiny Timbs: Sep 6, 2008

Hannibal Rex posted:

Yeah, but they didn't sink their own false flagship in order to blame Ukraine and justify further escalation. They play down Ukraine's capability, not up.

They don't need to be consistent about this. Something something the enemy is both strong and weak.

# ? May 3, 2023 15:19

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

Welp, guess it was a fixed wing drone. I am the dumb dumb today.

# ? May 3, 2023 15:20

A.o.D.: Jan 15, 2006

There's video of the drone 'strike' out there.

The drone was painted bright white, and blew up several meters away from the dome in a Hollywood looking incendiary charge. I have a feeling that the roof fire was unintentional and that poo poo was some false flag garbage.

It was as fake looking as that pre invasion attack footage in the Donbass.

# ? May 3, 2023 15:43

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 12:49

Serjeant Buzfuz: Dec 5, 2009

lol I love to false flag attack my own capital because ??????

Why is putin and co so loving stupid?

# ? May 3, 2023 16:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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