(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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WarpedLichen posted:I've always thought that the Ukraine interception rate was overinflated for propaganda purposes but I guess if even OSINT radio monitors can get advance notice of missile strikes there's no reason the military can't do the same and prepare. Based on reports about civilian casualties, and very little fanfare from Russia from recent attacks, it does seem like the numbers are at least very close to real. What is maybe used for propaganda by Ukraine is when a downed missile hits residential area, and it's not clear if it was going to hit it anyway or was targeting a supposed military facility. But then I'm not sure even Ukraine would be able to confirm it either way reliably, while Russia obviously claim they only attack military targets.
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May 2, 2023 20:38
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Scratch Monkey posted:Ukraine forms eight new ‘storm’ brigades for counterattack
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May 2, 2023 20:48
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Paladinus posted:Based on reports about civilian casualties, and very little fanfare from Russia from recent attacks, it does seem like the numbers are at least very close to real. What is maybe used for propaganda by Ukraine is when a downed missile hits residential area, and it's not clear if it was going to hit it anyway or was targeting a supposed military facility. But then I'm not sure even Ukraine would be able to confirm it either way reliably, while Russia obviously claim they only attack military targets. Did you miss the part where Russia hit a residential building, killing 20+ people including small children, and the Russian MoD posted the following image on their social media? https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1651864900220723200 The translation is "Right on target". It happened last Friday. Russia isn't even pretending to only target military targets anymore.
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May 2, 2023 20:51
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OddObserver posted:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1653456888971837462 Are those fuel tankers? E: holy God Twitter advertising has gone to poo poo. Just obnoxious video ads for stupid car cupholder gizmos  **IK note: please use timg tag in the future for big images (especially offtopic ones) to keep the thread cleaner** Somebody fucked around with this message at 21:15 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 20:59
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Icon Of Sin posted:Yea I confused dead/casualty (despite actually working with casualties in the past 🙃) Russia doesn't have a logistics chain for that right now. There is no medevac coming for lots of these guys. The footage coming out of the entrenched areas of Ukraine show Russian troops living in trenches with the bodies of their fallen just littered inside the trenches with the living. Welcome to modern combat with no established air superiority.
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May 2, 2023 21:00
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spankmeister posted:Did you miss the part where Russia hit a residential building, killing 20+ people including small children, and the Russian MoD posted the following image on their social media? I don't think a telegram post, even on the official ministry channel, is an actual admission of guilt. The official line still is (and always has been) that Russia only hits military targets, and if some civilians die, it's only because Ukraine puts military targets so close to civilians, if not outright that Ukraine bombs itself.
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May 2, 2023 21:16
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Paladinus posted:Based on reports about civilian casualties, and very little fanfare from Russia from recent attacks, it does seem like the numbers are at least very close to real. What is maybe used for propaganda by Ukraine is when a downed missile hits residential area, and it's not clear if it was going to hit it anyway or was targeting a supposed military facility. But then I'm not sure even Ukraine would be able to confirm it either way reliably, while Russia obviously claim they only attack military targets. I'm not plugged into Russian news sources, but my understanding is that even there are claims about successes like ammo dumps or barracks that really don't get any time on Western channels due to lack of corroborating evidence. I personally figured that stuff was quietly being hit and degraded but kept quiet for the most part. Maybe there's clear accounting of each missile strike and what got hit that I'm not aware of somewhere?
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May 2, 2023 21:25
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WarpedLichen posted:I'm not plugged into Russian news sources, but my understanding is that even there are claims about successes like ammo dumps or barracks that really don't get any time on Western channels due to lack of corroborating evidence. Russia doesnt have video/photo sources of its own for hit confirmation unless it is killcams from Lancets and has been flinging so much bullshit that any Russian MOD reports on 1488 killed nationalists from a single strike are ignored. OSINTers usually report hits from indenpendent confirmations. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 21:50 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 21:37
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fatherboxx posted:Arestovich is a known (entertaining) bullshit artist and was one even when he was an official and the account you are quoting is usually even worse He's a hunk and he can psyops and esoteric-NLP-bullshit me all night any night (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 2, 2023 21:58
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WarpedLichen posted:I've always thought that the Ukraine interception rate was overinflated for propaganda purposes but I guess if even OSINT radio monitors can get advance notice of missile strikes there's no reason the military can't do the same and prepare. 6 hours is more than enough time to get air defenses ready. I think the US THAAD system needs something like 6 minutes notice. Modern air defenses are fast. NomChompsky posted:Russia doesn't have a logistics chain for that right now. There is no medevac coming for lots of these guys. The footage coming out of the entrenched areas of Ukraine show Russian troops living in trenches with the bodies of their fallen just littered inside the trenches with the living. Welcome to modern combat with no established air superiority. Ukraine's KIA:WIA ratio seems closer to 1:6 to 1:9, depending on the time and place. It's not as good as "US military with full air superiority, heliborne casevac to a full hospital 20km away", but it's still pretty good. Ukraine is helped, too, because their inidvidual first aid kits (IFAKs) are substantially better. They're actually better than the US had in 2003, even. Having things like proper bandages, coagulant powder, chest seals, and tourniquets go a long way to improving you chances of survival.
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May 3, 2023 02:47
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Ynglaur posted:Ukraine is helped, too, because their inidvidual first aid kits (IFAKs) are substantially better. They're actually better than the US had in 2003, even. Russian units have been deployed with these. https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1507056211056812038
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May 3, 2023 03:53
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Budzilla posted:Russian units have been deployed with these. Eh, sometimes there just is a huge surplus of something. When I did my military service in Finland in 2003, we were one day given a large box of bandages to fill our pockets with. They were from 1937.
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May 3, 2023 07:41
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I remember similiar (if not the same) pictures showing up last year. While it is not ideal, having something other than the shirt off your back to pack a wound is preferable. Any videos of them being rolled out? Assuming it does not just disintegrate or is hard as a rock once taken out of the package, there will be a use for it.
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May 3, 2023 08:55
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The ones we were given for first aid training were from 1943. Still as good as new, stored well they don't really age it seems. Stored not so well I could see problems with mold and mice droppings among other things. The ones we carried on ourselves were new. As they were wrapped in paper they wouldn't be as fit for front line, unless you put it in a zip lock bag or something.
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May 3, 2023 09:17
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Budzilla posted:Russian units have been deployed with these. Our mandatory car first aid kits in the EU have an expiration time of only a couple of years. Considering that the retail price is ~3 EUR and that the civilian economy is already buying millions of them each year to replace expired ones, it's absolutely mind boggling that an army wouldn't have a couple hundred thousand fresh ones in storage when going into a land war in Europe. But then again, this is only a quick three day operation. The Russian army is probably not even going to have any casualties at all.
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May 3, 2023 09:56
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Looks like Ukraine is trying to gut Russian fuel reserves before launching the counterattack https://twitter.com/AmerLiberal/status/1653593381942054914 Zelensky is in Helsinki. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1653686152618995712 Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 10:33 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 10:09
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Valiantman posted:Eh, sometimes there just is a huge surplus of something. When I did my military service in Finland in 2003, we were one day given a large box of bandages to fill our pockets with. They were from 1937. The point is that ancient kits are not as effective as what Ukraine or the US has, regardless of how well they are stored.
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May 3, 2023 12:05
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Valiantman posted:Eh, sometimes there just is a huge surplus of something. When I did my military service in Finland in 2003, we were one day given a large box of bandages to fill our pockets with. They were from 1937. THose were probably stored well so that they were still fairly resonably sound and sterile. Given this is Russian supplies, I do not think that the same thing could be said with any degree f certainty
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May 3, 2023 12:07
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:THose were probably stored well so that they were still fairly resonably sound and sterile. Given this is Russian supplies, I do not think that the same thing could be said with any degree f certainty Could imagine grabbing one of those to try to save my buddy and when I try to unravel it it cracks open like a paper mache sock
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May 3, 2023 12:20
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Paladinus posted:Based on reports about civilian casualties, and very little fanfare from Russia from recent attacks, it does seem like the numbers are at least very close to real. What is maybe used for propaganda by Ukraine is when a downed missile hits residential area, and it's not clear if it was going to hit it anyway or was targeting a supposed military facility. But then I'm not sure even Ukraine would be able to confirm it either way reliably, while Russia obviously claim they only attack military targets. I wonder whether the high number of Russian attacks hitting civilian targets is a form of survivor bias too. Assuming that Ukraine has the bulk of it's air defense around military targets, it might be that the intercept rate is higher against missiles with legitimate targets. Maybe the ones that tend to get through, due to bad intel, incompetence or malice, are hitting places with no AA cover at all.
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May 3, 2023 12:29
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Umm holy poo poo https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1653725051974189063?t=1HHrag3djEgDmZ6PHMnipA&s=19 Government press service officially acknowledges there was a drone strike on Kremlin
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May 3, 2023 12:40
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That owns. Even in the event that it's a false flag it still implies real bad things for the Russian position.
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May 3, 2023 12:45
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If they actually cancel a 9th May parade in Moscow as a result thats going to be insanely embarrassing
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May 3, 2023 12:46
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fatherboxx posted:Umm holy poo poo I'm skeptical. Maybe the Russians faked it so they can mobilize further. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 13:07 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 12:56
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Charlz Guybon posted:I'm skeptical. Maybe the Russians faked it so they can mobilize further. Patriotic fervour ensues! (allegedly). I think it's a false flag personally. 
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May 3, 2023 13:12
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Charlz Guybon posted:I'm skeptical. Maybe the Russians faked it so they can mobilize further. If they wanted to false flag it, wouldn't hitting something less legitimate as a target (like a residential block or something) make more sense though?
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May 3, 2023 13:14
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Another video https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1653734693257314304?t=wHOF8sZhtBu4Dq_cX_6mpQ&s=19
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May 3, 2023 13:19
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How does any of this help Ukraine? It's just going to make Russia take it out on innocent Ukranians more, not to mention make allies more hesitant to give fighter jets and long range missiles https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1653730144069058562 Willo567 fucked around with this message at 13:31 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 13:26
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Willo567 posted:How does any of this help Ukraine? It's just going to make Russia take it out on innocent Ukranians more yeah i dont think you could really encourage russia more on that front
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May 3, 2023 13:31
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Chalks posted:I wonder whether the high number of Russian attacks hitting civilian targets is a form of survivor bias too. Assuming that Ukraine has the bulk of it's air defense around military targets, it might be that the intercept rate is higher against missiles with legitimate targets. Maybe the ones that tend to get through, due to bad intel, incompetence or malice, are hitting places with no AA cover at all. Russia has just hit another shopping centre, this time in Kherson, a clear example of an indiscriminate attack. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-civilians-killed-russian-attack-ukrainian-hypermarket-officials-2023-05-03/ At the very beginning of the war, Russians hit a shopping centre in Kyiv, and it later came out that the underground car park and/or storage facilities were used by the army in some capacity. Then there was an attack on a Krememenchuk shopping centre that was located close to a road machinery plant that kind of sort of maybe could have been used for military needs. Basically, the justification within the Russian MoD for those and later attacks on clearly civilian buildings is that if something can be used for military needs, it is a military target. The same exact justification was explicitly used when Russia tried to destroy Ukrainian energy infrastructure in addition to the angle of revenge for the Kerch bridge explosion. They choose to believe bad intel and/or their own faulty logic, and with that in mind, when choosing real or imagined military targets, they are likely to prioritise those with weaker air defence. In the interest of balance, there are also reports of (maybe not as frequent) attacks by Ukraine that hit shopping centres, markets, and other civilian objects in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The latest one I remember happened in April.   for photos of dead bodieshttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-seven-civilians-killed-ukraine-shelling-attacks-agencies-2023-04-06/ My understanding is Ukraine, like Russia, would need to use high-value long-distance ammunition for strikes like that, which doesn't make sense for non-military targets even if there was malicious intent behind them, so bad intel probably also contributes to it on both sides.
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May 3, 2023 13:33
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Willo567 posted:How does any of this help Ukraine? It's just going to make Russia take it out on innocent Ukranians more, not to mention make allies more hesitant to give fighter jets and long range missiles Time for Putin to awaken his final form. The red square... has been crossed fatherboxx posted:Umm holy poo poo This is loving insane lmao
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May 3, 2023 13:33
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fatherboxx posted:Another video The fact that it's pretty much hitting the flag is quite ridiculous. Feels like a cartoonish taunt. I have trouble believing that Ukrainian drone could actually hit the kremlin of all places and it also does absolutely nothing for Ukraine so it feels like a false flag to me.
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May 3, 2023 13:34
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KingColliwog posted:The fact that it's pretty much hitting the flag is quite ridiculous. Feels like a cartoonish taunt. could be a false flag but at least the flag is real
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May 3, 2023 13:39
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Ukraine has nothing to gain from something like this. And knowing how wacky Russia gets with its cartoonish schemes, this makes me think it was an inside job.
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May 3, 2023 13:39
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Ukraine has everything to gain from such a spectacular own of the bunker gnome's headquarters Russia has nothing to gain by being embarrassed like this
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May 3, 2023 13:40
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KingColliwog posted:The fact that it's pretty much hitting the flag is quite ridiculous. Feels like a cartoonish taunt. You have to consider Ukraine's national myth though:  (Even if entirely inaccurate, as those things tend to be)
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May 3, 2023 13:41
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Drone fuel cant melt flagpolesKingColliwog posted:I have trouble believing that Ukrainian drone could actually hit the kremlin of all places and it also does absolutely nothing for Ukraine so it feels like a false flag to me. But it does - Putin is insanely paranoid and at the very least it is going to force even more AA and EW systems to be concentrated in Moscow instead of frontline
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May 3, 2023 13:41
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I can't see that it would be a false flag, it's hugely embarrassing for the Russians if Ukraine can blow stuff up inside the Kremlin. Anything I can think they would gain from this could be done better by blowing up something else. I think it's got to be Ukraine or internal opposition trying to ruin Putin's parade.
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May 3, 2023 13:41
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:yeah i dont think you could really encourage russia more on that front They could use it to convince China to give them lethal aid, or try and rally up the population. They'll definitely try to hit the presidential office in Ukraine in their next mass missile attack on Ukraine I believe. Willo567 fucked around with this message at 13:48 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 13:43
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KingColliwog posted:The fact that it's pretty much hitting the flag is quite ridiculous. Feels like a cartoonish taunt. It doesn't have to be a Ukrainian drone. There is very little for Russia to gain from a false flag attack. Remember, they prefer to explain away successful Ukrainian attacks with negligent smokers where it's even remotely plausible. The official narrative is that the war is needed so that the rest of Russia can stay safe and peaceful, and any attack deep into Russian territory goes against that narrative and shows that the war only makes everyone less safe.
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May 3, 2023 13:48
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