(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1653762654656249862?s=20 A bit, though the color from the cameras is quite different. I am not an explosives forensics expert, so I acknowledge I could be wrong. Compare the Moscow explosion to explosions from Ukrainian drones attacking Russian personnel. Again, I could be wrong.  Mr. Apollo posted:I thought this was neat, a Ukrainian farmer built a remote controlled mine roller using a tractor. This is a great idea. If the vehicle doesn't need to be tactical, you could put enough armor on the impact point to keep the mechanicals safe, too. I wonder if we'll see drones with metal detectors or sub-surface radar slowly sweeping fields and forests in coming years. Thanks for sharing this Mr. Apollo!
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May 4, 2023 00:21
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Ynglaur posted:This is a great idea. If the vehicle doesn't need to be tactical, you could put enough armor on the impact point to keep the mechanicals safe, too. I wonder if we'll see drones with metal detectors or sub-surface radar slowly sweeping fields and forests in coming years. Thanks for sharing this Mr. Apollo!
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May 4, 2023 00:42
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Icon Of Sin posted:I used to bullseye flagpoles with my COTS drone back home, they’re wayyyy smaller than 2 meters. Then to your drones, and may the force be with you.
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May 4, 2023 01:08
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Looks like a bunch of Russian Shaheed strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa overnight... and a Ukrainian strike on a oil storage in Krasnodar --- 3rd Ukrainian strike on Russian fuel storage facilities in the last week or so. https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1653926131731509251 OddObserver fucked around with this message at 01:59 on May 4, 2023 |
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May 4, 2023 01:56
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fez_machine posted:reads non-state actors to me, the type who'd get off on just being able to successfully launch an attack against a symbolic target Probably. We’ll probably won’t know for some time. Hope they won’t throw a random ‘woman in a red mini’ in jail for it.
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May 4, 2023 06:32
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I'm finding the theory that the drone attack was done to put pressure on Putin to relocate some air defenses from the front line pretty convincing.
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May 4, 2023 08:22
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Chalks posted:I'm finding the theory that the drone attack was done to put pressure on Putin to relocate some air defenses from the front line pretty convincing. I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. If Ukraine had the capability to strike Kremlin, they would have picked some other target that had actual military value, instead of a loving flag.
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May 4, 2023 08:48
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Keisari posted:I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. If it was Russia, they would've killed some civilians, not embarrassed putin like this.
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May 4, 2023 08:57
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Strawman posted:If it was Russia, they would've killed some civilians, not embarrassed putin like this. The story would have been about a 100 year old WW2 veteran who shot down two killer drones with a trophy Mosin Nagant, like that Iraqi guy who 'downed' an AH-64 Apache with an ancient Lee Enfield rifle.
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May 4, 2023 09:04
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Keisari posted:I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. This attack was so minor though. High on symbolism and nothing else. Maximum embarrassment for the Kremlin, minimum upset in the population. It's the exact opposite of what would make an effective false flag, and this is a government that's willing to blow up an apartment block filled with civilians to justify a war - they're not scared to do it properly. If you look at what Putin is struggling with at the moment, he's stuck between trying to make the invasion look successful to keep the hardliners happy and finding a way to make a second wave of mobilization acceptable. This seems to fail on both counts, and I think the lack of a coherent reaction from Russia so far also implies this wasn't planned.
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May 4, 2023 09:16
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If the Russians had bombed themselves, they would have killed a bunch of people on purpose.
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May 4, 2023 09:17
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Chalks posted:This attack was so minor though. High on symbolism and nothing else. Maximum embarrassment for the Kremlin, minimum upset in the population. It's the exact opposite of what would make an effective false flag, and this is a government that's willing to blow up an apartment block filled with civilians to justify a war - they're not scared to do it properly. What about the last 15 months screams that Russia has the competence to something properly, no matter how unafraid of doing it they are?
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May 4, 2023 09:30
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Keisari posted:I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. What exact tradition? In this war the only false flag attacks were the ones immediately prior to the invasion https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1654032263204438016?t=UpeMwKHts26JUSDM-LAH-g&s=19 If you say 1999 apartment bombings, that was 20 years ago By the way, the strikes got whopping 4 minutes of airtime in evening news without even footage being shown - that is very unlike a rousing false flag to whip the population.
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May 4, 2023 09:33
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Keisari posted:I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another. What is the pretext for that couldn't be achieved another way? Mobilisations, bombing of Kiev, failed offensives are all achievable with some correct framing on television, there are no democratic institutions to put a break on anything If it was drumming up support for the war, something along the lines of "Ukrainians are bombing orphanages and then crucifying the survivors" would have more effect than "help we are totally hosed and helpless" Not saying it's not but false flag making GBS threads your pants is something new
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May 4, 2023 09:34
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NTRabbit posted:What about the last 15 months screams that Russia has the competence to something properly, no matter how unafraid of doing it they are? We should be careful not to conflate incompetence and corruption with "nothing they do makes any sense". It may be that this is a huge misjudgment, but there's nothing really pointing to that at the moment.
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May 4, 2023 09:53
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It doesn't seem that unlikely that partisans would make a symbolic attack honestly.
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May 4, 2023 10:11
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I think you also have to look at the wider context of the war at the moment. Ukraine is in the middle of an extensive drone attack campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure, not just designed to impact their logistics at the front, but also to stretch their defenses and over stress their decision making bandwidth. This drone attack fits very neatly into this picture. More poo poo to worry about and more directions to look in at a vital moment.
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May 4, 2023 10:40
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Chalks posted:This drone attack fits very neatly into this picture. It doesn't though? Nothing about this attack remotely fits together with what Ukraine has been doing and plans to do. There's 4 options for explaining this attack - Russian false flag directed by the executive, Russian factional infighting, Russian anti-Putin rebels, and Ukrainian intelligence action - and the Ukrainian involvement is far and away the least likely based on all the current evidence. NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 10:58 on May 4, 2023 |
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May 4, 2023 10:54
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I think this was one person located close by, the equipment needed for it is easily available and from the footage it was basically a flying pipe bomb. This person may have done this to spur the Russian state into 'taking the gloves off' or to make Putin look weak or be somewhat mad like Mathias Rust or the guy who killed the former Japanese PM. The two drones arriving quite a long time apart could point to it being carried out by a single person or at least a group incapable of launching two at once.
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May 4, 2023 11:19
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Paladinus posted:They are a small org that previously used to have a very narrow focus on the prison system. Now that they've expanded to also covering the war, they simply aren't capable of vetting their sources as effectively. They are not quite on the Nexta/Unian level yet, but once in a while they now publish something very sensationalist from 'anonymous sources'. Case in point. It was all literally just trolling by Russian white nationalists on twitch. https://t.me/ilyashepelin/5061
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May 4, 2023 11:34
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It would take very extraordinary evidence to convince me that Putin was planning to press the suicide button because someone destroyed a flag
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May 4, 2023 11:49
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NTRabbit posted:It doesn't though? Nothing about this attack remotely fits together with what Ukraine has been doing and plans to do. This attack will tax the decision making systems in the same way as all the other attacks, but perhaps more so given how much the list of potential targets expands as a result. It also could pull AD resources from the front. Both of those things are major goals of the other attacks in addition to the logistical impact that's not present here. As for a false flag, I don't see how this could achieve any political goals in a way that flying those drones into a school wouldn't do 10x better. Russian in fighting? I don't get it, how does hitting the roof of the Kremlin make sense as a factional move? I've not seen this suggested elsewhere so I've not really considered it, but I don't see anything immediately. As for it being the actions of an anti Putin group not directly aligned with Ukraine? Sure I could buy that, but unless we get a claim of responsibility by a group soon I'd discount that too. Similar deal with the false flag theory, if we don't get a clear and coherent response soon I'll have trouble buying it as part of a plan. The mouthpieces are just ranting atm.
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May 4, 2023 12:02
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Paladinus posted:Case in point. It was all literally just trolling by Russian white nationalists on twitch. Yeah saw this and doesn't look good. Dude, you get invited to PACE and other institutions, vet the poo poo you read out loud
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May 4, 2023 12:26
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False flag -> flag negation ~> destroy the flag. If a world where 3 Sims -> Sims 3 apparently happened, it makes as much sense as any other theory.
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May 4, 2023 13:15
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radmonger posted:False flag -> flag negation ~> destroy the flag. What's this Sims thing? I see it come up, but I totally missed it.
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May 4, 2023 13:22
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Disco Pope posted:What's this Sims thing? I see it come up, but I totally missed it. There was a sabotage attempt or something similar, and Russian FSB agents "identified" the perpetrator and "raided" the residence to find various paraphernalia--burner phones, equipment, etc. Inexplicably, there were multiple copies of the Sims 3. Everyone went collectively "huh?" until it dawned on us that the crew put in charge of this elite operation were told to get spare SIM cards and misunderstood. So the russians proudly displayed their captured copies of the Sims and held them up as proof of insurgency/enemy operations.
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May 4, 2023 13:30
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Disco Pope posted:What's this Sims thing? I see it come up, but I totally missed it. Last year, there was an alleged assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyov, one of the loudest propaganda voices in Russia, who happens to be Jewish. The suspects were quickly detained, and a lot of nazi merchandise was found at their flat. For some reason, however, three CDs of Sims 3 were shown along with Nazi Germany flags and extremist literature. Some theorised that whoever orchestrated the photoshoot misunderstood the request and instead of getting some mobile SIM cards, brought three copies of Sims 3. Most likely not what happened, but it's extremely funny. 
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May 4, 2023 13:30
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The false flag theory makes a lot of sense if you accept the claim that the drone was aiming for Putin in the presidential palace: the fact that it instead crashed on a flagpole does seem consistent with russian missile guidance accuracy.
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May 4, 2023 13:41
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radmonger posted:False flag -> flag negation ~> destroy the flag. "False flag" is not an idiom in Russian or Ukrainian
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May 4, 2023 13:41
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fatherboxx posted:"False flag" is not an idiom in Russian or Ukrainian It is already. Kind of. There's even a new TV show on NTV called 'Фальшивый флаг' (False Flag). quote:The Turkish defence minister was kidnapped from a hotel on Cyprus during an unofficial visit. The Turkish security services publish photos of the suspects' passports, all of them Russians with dual citizenship. The men are said to be covert agents of the Russian secret services who have been plotting this special operation for several years.
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May 4, 2023 13:52
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In the absence of new information, it's probably not productive to keep spinning around in circles on the whodunnit speculation
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May 4, 2023 13:55
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FishMcCool posted:The false flag theory makes a lot of sense if you accept the claim that the drone was aiming for Putin in the presidential palace: the fact that it instead crashed on a flagpole does seem consistent with russian missile guidance accuracy. Does it though? What effect would a false flag like that have? Where is the evidence of this plan being put in motion? A false flag isn't just a stand alone thing, it's the first step of a very public plan. If they're planning on capitalizing on the assassination attempt story, where is it? This is before we get to the question of why anyone would stage a fake assassination attempt in this way rather than something more obvious and attributable.
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May 4, 2023 14:01
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Honestly I find the Nazi t shirt funnier. Just giving up on the Hugo Boss and wearing an ill-fitting logo shirt.
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May 4, 2023 14:29
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Paladinus posted:Last year, there was an alleged assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyov, one of the loudest propaganda voices in Russia, who happens to be Jewish. The suspects were quickly detained, and a lot of nazi merchandise was found at their flat. For some reason, however, three CDs of Sims 3 were shown along with Nazi Germany flags and extremist literature. Some theorised that whoever orchestrated the photoshoot misunderstood the request and instead of getting some mobile SIM cards, brought three copies of Sims 3. Most likely not what happened, but it's extremely funny. This isn't a "I choose to believe the guy tazed himself in the balls because its the funniest option": any other possible explanation just feels a lot more convoluted and improbable.
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May 4, 2023 14:45
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Honestly I find the Nazi t shirt funnier. Just giving up on the Hugo Boss and wearing an ill-fitting logo shirt. They always have them with something like a biography of Bandera, too.
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May 4, 2023 14:53
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Tigey posted:I actually disagree here: I think it is by far the simplest and most likely explanation. I don't think there is any serious doubt that the picture was faked, and in my view the simplest explanation is that the person doing it was either incompetent, lazy or maliciously compliant (ie: "That jackass of a boss who always mistreats me wants 3 SIMS in the incriminating photo? You didn't say CARDS rear end in a top hat, so here you go!") It's much more likely that a) Whoever was getting things for the photoshoot was also on the anti-video games hysteria bandwagon and thought that showing the suspects as gamers would strengthen the case, and Sims is known to some as the most diabolical game in existence, b) There was supposed to be something else hidden in CD cases (drugs, porn, more nazi stuff, secret messages from CIA), but everyone forgot to open them to show it.
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May 4, 2023 15:01
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Honestly I find the Nazi t shirt funnier. Just giving up on the Hugo Boss and wearing an ill-fitting logo shirt. Also both shirts are brand new and still have the creases in them from being taken right out of the packaging
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May 4, 2023 15:04
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Chalks posted:Does it though? What effect would a false flag like that have? Where is the evidence of this plan being put in motion? You're assigning competence in planning and rationality in decision making where Russia has demonstrated over the last year they have neither. They plan with incompetence because the capable military and FSB people are dead, exiled, or ignored, and their decision making is the kind made by idiot managers who don't have to listen to anyone telling them how stupid, ineffective, unachievable, counterproductive, or illegal that plan is because those people are all dead or in exile because they tried to do it once and that was the result. I've had those managers before, I know how stupid, incompetent, and detached from reality they are, and what they can do when there's no one around to stop them. NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 15:15 on May 4, 2023 |
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May 4, 2023 15:10
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NTRabbit posted:You're assigning competence in planning and rationality in decision making where Russia has demonstrated over the last year they have neither. You may be correct, but I don't think the mere capacity for one side to act irrationally tips the balance of probability here. Their previous mistakes have been easy to explain with poor intel and corruption, here we need to leap to them successfully pulling off a complex operation that simply makes no sense. If this is a false flag, I'm much more prepared to believe there's some rational plan with flawed assumptions, just like all their other mistakes. They're not brain dead. Their track record in this war is bad for actual reasons that can be understood, it's not just a series of totally nonsense actions.
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May 4, 2023 15:25
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 17:37 |
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I guess I'm alone in this theory, but I assumed it was a warning against messing with the Victory Day parade in Moscow. If Ukraine was thinking of sending over a drone to glitter bomb Russian soldiers blue and yellow, they know that Russia will take this as an assassination attempt against Putin and go nuts. It seemed to me like a message to Ukraine to not embarrass them, without the embarrassment of having to ask that.
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May 4, 2023 15:25
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