Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Cryptid COVID

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Interesting stuff but uh

https://twitter.com/SolidEvidence/status/1650579850972004352?s=20
😐

Make sure to check whether Ohio is a one party poop-testing consent state first.

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
Do they think somebody's been literally making GBS threads their own COVID variant for two years? I am not skeptical, just amazed at the idea.

ponzicar
Mar 17, 2008
Vintage Covid Shitter would make a great username.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Do they think somebody's been literally making GBS threads their own COVID variant for two years? I am not skeptical, just amazed at the idea.

Usually someone with a compromised immune system like a diabetic or transplant patient. Immune system is strong enough to push it back but not clear it and the victim is somewhat used to feeling like crap so a low-level infection with mild to moderate symptoms doesn't seem odd. Can be years before someone like that finally clears the virus. Meanwhile their body acts as a petri dish for breeding one extremely specialized strain of the virus. These are small cities so it wouldn't surprise me to find out that the patient lived in one and maybe gets medical treatment in the other.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Do they think somebody's been literally making GBS threads their own COVID variant for two years? I am not skeptical, just amazed at the idea.

Basically, yes.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

ponzicar posted:

Vintage Covid Shitter would make a great username.

More of a bespoke artisanal covid shitter

Squibbles
Aug 24, 2000

Mwaha ha HA ha!
It's typhoid COVID Mary

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1653093840130113537

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
The text of the tweet frames the article in a weird way in that it does not comport with the tone of the page itself.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 12:37 on May 2, 2023

NomChompsky
Sep 17, 2008

eXXon posted:

This model of designing safety regulations around the lowest acceptable common denominator is patently stupid and should not be the role of the CDC. Imagine applying it to workplace safety, seatbelt use (which many people hated when it was first mandated but is now widely accepted), or basically any other comparable scenario.

It is also worth reiterating that the CDC actively discouraged the use of N95 masks until January 2022 (nearly a year after they became widely available again) and did not start discouraging cloth/surgical mask use then either. There was and still is no justification for such misleading and misinformed guidance.

Thing is one could compare seatbelts to this very issue. Seatbelts were notoriously ignored even after they came out. No carrot worked, so most states took up the stick in the past 20-30 years and made not wearing one a punishable offense. That's catering policy to the lowest common denominator. They may not give a poo poo that if they get into an accident without a seatbelt on they're hosed, but they understand that they don't want to pay a $100 ticket. The CDC doesn't have a stick, they had to work with varying degrees of carrot which consistently made any policy pursuit look foolish.

"No masks for the unvaccinated" was the pinnacle of this kind of idiocy because you know the entire decision was made because some moron in a meeting there was like "If we tell them they don't have to wear a mask the people who hate masks will get a shot! Bada Bing!"

The problem with that is people are stupid, broadly, but not that kind of stupid. The people who were determined to shrug off mitigations of any kind weren't going to be told what to do whether you used a carrot or a stick. They don't understand or care about the science, but they are just clever enough to know when some agency is trying to bait them, and they weren't going to take that bait.

Mercury_Storm
Jun 12, 2003

*chomp chomp chomp*
The hospital system near me just decided that masking was optional as well, for everyone, including the nurses. I assume we will be straight back in COVID death land come the holidays or earlier.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
On Friday, the Post ran the article “CDC meeting, intended to mark covid progress, sees virus cases of its own

A CDC official told the Post that “the cases we’re aware of at this time should not be referred to as an ‘outbreak.’ These cases are reflective of general spread in the community. It’s not news that public health employees can get COVID-19.”

I was curious as to how CDC experts might define “outbreak” such that it excluded transmission associated with the EIS Conference but included, say, the Provincetown outbreak of July 2021, but it as of today they are conducting a “rapid epidemiological assessment” of whatever they want to call it.

quote:

CDC is working with the Georgia Department of Health to conduct a rapid epidemiological assessment of confirmed COVID-19 cases that appear to be connected to the 2023 EIS Conference to determine transmission patterns

CDC opens probe after 35 test positive for covid following CDC conference

Good for them.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy
Does it really matter at this point? Covid is basically endemic now, and has been for a while.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Do avoidable COVID outbreaks matter? Yes. Any other questions?

Platystemon posted:

The text of the tweet frames the article in a weird way in that it does not comport with the tone of the page itself.

They quoted one supposedly reviewed but as-yet unpublished study (looks like an early release from a conference?) claiming that masking requirements did not reduce COVID transmission in one UK hospital (with what seems like all of the usual limitations of studies on this topic), and this rather disappointing quote (third paragraph):

quote:

“It’s just so confusing because the upsides are so obvious and the downsides seem so small,” said Colin Killick, executive director of Disability Policy Consortium.

Some infection control specialists say masks can impede communication with patients who are hard of hearing or are not native English speakers.

“When you are in covid surges, then the benefits of masking probably outweighs the risks of disparities, but during times of low transmission, maybe not,” said Tania Bubb, president-elect of the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology.

Killick said hospitals could address those concerns by providing transparent masks that allow patients to read lips and hiring more interpreters.

... but no, I didn't see them cite a groundswell of professional opinions in favour of ripping off the masks.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

eXXon posted:

Do avoidable COVID outbreaks matter? Yes.

I mean, the only way to prevent these "avoidable" COVID outbreaks is to stop holding events altogether. I'm sure some people want that, but fortunately they are in the minority now.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

I mean, the only way to prevent these "avoidable" COVID outbreaks is to stop holding events altogether.

I'm sure you have some exciting data to share on how there are no effective COVID mitigations, but instead let me just highlight how hilarious it is that you just said that they are in fact preventable while putting "avoidable" in air quotes.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

eXXon posted:

I'm sure you have some exciting data to share on how there are no effective COVID mitigations, but instead let me just highlight how hilarious it is that you just said that they are in fact preventable while putting "avoidable" in air quotes.

I put the word avoidable in quotes because they are often times not actually avoidable, i.e. your workplace might demand that you attend. But they are preventable, i.e. your employer might be able to prevent them by not holding the events in the first place. That's the only real way to ensure outbreaks don't happen.

Glad you were entertained, though.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf
After a multi-year global pandemic where we implemented a hybrid work-from-home policy and generous sick leave, we still have employees that show up coughing to the office like it's normal and good.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

Does it really matter at this point? Covid is basically endemic now, and has been for a while.

I know you know that “endemic” doesn’t imply the things you continually misuse it for, and yet…

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

Stickman posted:

I know you know that “endemic” doesn’t imply the things you continually misuse it for, and yet…

I think what I meant should be clear: the pandemic is over. Covid is everywhere, in much milder form. The only way to fully avoid is to never leave your house.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

"The pandemic is over"
"COVID is everywhere"

:confused:

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Covid, just a huge, ongoing issue, as evidenced by the three weeks this thread recently went with literally zero posts.

Mercury_Storm posted:

The hospital system near me just decided that masking was optional as well, for everyone, including the nurses. I assume we will be straight back in COVID death land come the holidays or earlier.
We are never, ever, ever going back to 2020-21 death rates. Maybe from something else in the future but not from Covid-19.

CellBlock
Oct 6, 2005

It just don't stop.



Mellow Seas posted:

We are never, ever, ever going back to 2020-21 death rates. Maybe from something else in the future but not from Covid-19.

Maybe so, but what we went through with COVID-19 hasn't improved our response to anything else in the slightest. In fact, it might have hurt it. I see people out and about hacking their lungs out, but then saying "don't worry, it's not COVID" as if that's the only disease you can spread everywhere.

At least around me, there seems to be some sort of minor strep outbreak as well as various other respiratory illnesses going around (as well as probably COVID not showing up on rapid tests, but since "COVID is over" you can't go get a PCR test without paying out of pocket, so nobody's doing it).

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Mercury_Storm posted:

The hospital system near me just decided that masking was optional as well, for everyone, including the nurses. I assume we will be straight back in COVID death land come the holidays or earlier.

FWIW nearly everywhere in Europe removed mask mandates in the routine clinical setting (i.e. non-ICU), and some countries did so quite a long while ago. The Netherlands removed the requirement to wear a mask in hospitals/clinics in March 2022, Switzerland removed them in April 2022, France in August 2022, Italy in Nov 2022, UK and Belgium in March 2023, and Luxembourg, Ireland, and Germany in April 2023. Spain still requires them, and I didn't exhaustively check countries but it seems to be the only European country to still require them in the non-ICU medical setting, and in general throughout the pandemic, Spain had the strictest COVID policies of Western Europe.

No one seems to publish COVID numbers anymore, so it may very well have caused a significant increase in transmission in the medical setting, but the health system did not collapse in NL or Switzerland either, despite them removing the mandate more than a year ago and. From limited personal experience visiting major hospitals in both countries within the past year, masks were not worn by any of the staff and by only a few patients.

I do think masks should be required in a medical setting, but it also did not lead to the sky falling in places where they removed mask mandates a long time ago.

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


CellBlock posted:

Maybe so, but what we went through with COVID-19 hasn't improved our response to anything else in the slightest. In fact, it might have hurt it. I see people out and about hacking their lungs out, but then saying "don't worry, it's not COVID" as if that's the only disease you can spread everywhere.

At least around me, there seems to be some sort of minor strep outbreak as well as various other respiratory illnesses going around (as well as probably COVID not showing up on rapid tests, but since "COVID is over" you can't go get a PCR test without paying out of pocket, so nobody's doing it).

I've seen the opposite - people are way less likely to go to social events or work if they are a bit sick

Lager
Mar 9, 2004

Give me the secret to the anti-puppet equation!

Alctel posted:

I've seen the opposite - people are way less likely to go to social events or work if they are a bit sick

I wish I could say the same, but people seem even more belligerent about getting their time in the office than they were before the pandemic where I work, even though we only are required to go in once every 3 months and can pick the day.

A few weeks back there was a big department meeting that I avoided going in for, and the first 15 minutes were spent listening to everyone in the room coughing, including the coordinator who was telling everyone about how she got diagnosed the day before with bronchitis and a sinus infection but don't worry, because it's not COVID! Followed by everyone in the room laughing and sharing their extra fun and cool diagnoses.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

VitalSigns posted:

"The pandemic is over"
"COVID is everywhere"

:confused:

I mean, the common cold is also everywhere, but we don't have a common cold pandemic.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
The common cold didn’t kill three hundred thousand people in the U.S. last year.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Dr. John Moore has a thoughtful piece in Medpage Today.

He objects to the decision to do away with the prime–boost regimen of the original vaccines in favor of a single shot of the bivalent.

quote:

FDA official Peter Marks, MD, PhD, has referred to "simplifying" vaccine administration as being the driver for the recent change and "believes" that allowing unvaccinated people to receive only a single dose will "help encourage future vaccination." Given the reasons behind vaccine refusal, that belief seems quite naïve. Marks also refers to how "most of the U.S. population" has been either infected by the virus, already vaccinated, or both. The unstated implication is that an unvaccinated person now needs only a single vaccine dose to boost immunity conferred by prior infection. Indeed, several science reporters have told me that's what FDA officials are saying in private briefings. While there is solid science behind the hybrid immunity argument, there are also ethical concerns.

I will say again that few unvaccinated Americans will now change their minds -- but some might. However, not all of those mind-changers will have been previously infected, so some will lack any prior immunity. It's not possible to estimate the number of people that fall into this category, but it won't be zero. After all, the FDA is still seeking, rightly, to "encourage future vaccination."

There is literally no data on how well a single dose of a bivalent mRNA vaccine will protect anyone. But we have known for over 2 years that a single dose of the original vaccines was not good enough. The human immune system has not suddenly changed -- I think that giving only a single vaccine dose, of whatever composition, to immunologically naïve people (i.e., no prior infection or vaccination) will leave them perilously under-vaccinated, and hence at future risk of COVID-19. It's particularly problematic if those people believe they are now "fully protected" and increase their exposure to infection. The new one-dose policy is letting these people down.

A better, more humane policy would be to continue to allow every previously unvaccinated person access to two bivalent vaccine doses. Their own knowledge and input from their physicians could guide them as to whether they prefer one dose or two. But they should have the choice -- it's the ethical option.

I think that he’s right.

He has left out one nuance, though: Novavax’s product is still given as a two‐shot series. It’s not updated for Omicron, almost no one is choosing it, and if people do want it they may have to travel widely in pursuit, but it’s technically still on the market. CDC tracker has it at 87,522 doses administered to date, almost a year after it became available. For reference, the U.S. bought 3.2 million doses in July and an additional 1.5 million in February.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

eh, if you gotten this far and your body has refused to be infected, a single does is most likely fine and for the much smaller population (never vaccinated, never been infected, susceptible to a nasty infection, meaningfully different outcome if had taken a second shot) is not really worth over-thinking about.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Platystemon posted:

The common cold didn’t kill three hundred thousand people in the U.S. last year.
Sure, Covid killed 300,000 in the US last year, in 2022, but it's only killed, back of the envelope, maybe 130,000 in the last year, May '22-April '23? Which includes another entire winter. Doesn't that suggest the situation has dramatically improved? The majority of Covid deaths in 2022 were in the first three months of the year, as a result of the Omicron wave, which was the first infection for 100 million+ Americans, something that can literally never happen again because there are way, way less than 100 million Americans who haven't been infected left.

Yes, 130,000 is a lot, but old people have to die of something. As a comparison, influenza kills 50,000+ in some seasons. Covid is something we need to continue to work on treatments and preventions for but it's not something worth building our society around.

e: About 150 deaths/day the in the last month. If we could maintain that rate through a winter season (big if, of course - it was ~500 in January '23) then Covid deaths would be comparable to influenza deaths.

e2: I know case rate numbers are completely useless these days, except in a relative sense, but death stats are still relatively accurate, right?

We're on pace for about 120k deaths in 2023, and I think there's a good chance we do better than that.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:24 on May 5, 2023

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

120k deaths is a lot, most of the things we do to try and manage health is in response to a few k a year. By your estimation, the best year, so far, that we've had for COVID is on pace to be roughly 3x a really bad flu year.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

nomad2020 posted:

120k deaths is a lot, most of the things we do to try and manage health is in response to a few k a year.
Yes, sure, and that's why

Mellow Seas posted:

Covid is something we need to continue to work on treatments and preventions for
But some things we do try and manage health are response to a lot more deaths, and we don't reorganize our societies around them. And a lot of those issues are easier to deal with than "extremely contagious airborne coronavirus." Diabetes is a factor in 280,000 deaths a year, and the government makes attempts to improve the situation, but we don't take steps like banning soda and candy bars because it's considered a disproportionate response by pretty much everybody.

Of course there have been a lot of deaths. This a coronavirus that was only introduced to the human population 3 years ago, a historically unprecedented event, and there was no response that was going to prevent millions of global deaths. But now we're faced with this trendline:

And the deaths, down probably over to 90% from their peak, are still mostly among people who already had relatively low life expectancies - which doesn't make them not tragic, but is certainly better than the alternative.

And on those grounds, in the current context I believe

Mellow Seas posted:

it's not something worth building our society around.
Of course, I'm not complaining, because this is also the position of a huge percentage of Americans, which is why everything is pretty much carrying on as normal (albeit with a lot of cultural weirdness coming out of the nationwide PTSD). I already have "what I want." I just hope some statistical perspective can help you to feel a little better about the situation, maybe.

Sub Rosa
Jun 9, 2010




We should ban sugar water and candy though

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

nomad2020 posted:

120k deaths is a lot, most of the things we do to try and manage health is in response to a few k a year. By your estimation, the best year, so far, that we've had for COVID is on pace to be roughly 3x a really bad flu year.

You two seem pretty much in agreement? The only difference I see on your stances is that maybe you are saying that 120k deaths is a public health emergency and the other poster is saying that it's a public health issue, but not emergency. Besides absolute numbers, the profile of those affected is also different; 50k people over 80 dying is not the same health crisis as is 50k children under 10 dying.

I think everyone here agrees that COVID is enough of an issue that it warrants continued significant amounts of research money and continued efforts to develop a vaccine that is actually effective against mild illness. Vaccines seem to be doing a lot better now in general, with the first ever RSV vaccine approved a couple days ago and which seems to work pretty well. The huge decrease in vaccine development time will likely also mean future flu vaccines are more targeted and thus more effective, and maybe even for new categories of virus altogether like a polyvalent rhinovirus vaccine.

The WHO also just today declared that the COVID pandemic is over (Mission Accomplished!), and for me IRL COVID mentions have been pretty rare the last 3-4 months. Even online, I think Ars Technica is the only social media space I visit where I see anyone who still talks about COVID, unless you count this thread that goes weeks without a post. Regular people, who are not involved in public health or policy, don't care about it anymore since it doesn't rate very highly on daily concerns. That doesn't mean it's no longer an issue for governments and health professionals to deal with. AIDS and malaria are a huge deal too and affect tens / hundreds of millions of people, but like COVID they're also irrelevant to the daily lives of billions of people.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Mellow Seas posted:

Interesting stuff but uh

https://twitter.com/SolidEvidence/status/1650579850972004352?s=20
😐

Make sure to check whether Ohio is a one party poop-testing consent state first.

He's very obviously asking people to test their own poop, not each other's.

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Saladman posted:

The WHO also just today declared that the COVID pandemic is over (Mission Accomplished!),

To be clear, no they did not:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/05/nation/who-downgrades-covid-pandemic-says-its-no-longer-global-emergency/ posted:

WHO said that even though the emergency phase was over, the pandemic hasn’t come to an end, noting recent spikes in cases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Civilized Fishbot posted:

He's very obviously asking people to test their own poop, not each other's.
Oh okay, lol, it says "ask them to do this." For some reason I missed the "ask them" and thought he was just telling people to surreptitiously test this long-hauler's poop. I guess that wouldn't even work unless the person didn't flush.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

Sub Rosa posted:

We should ban sugar water and candy though

Unironically agree, also require cardio.

Saladman posted:

You two seem pretty much in agreement?

We pretty much agree, but AIDS is a great example of why I'm irritated that COVID is over, because I know that in some amount of years it's a thing we're likely going to have to circle back and look into the societal changes thing to deal with the consequences thereof. Well, mostly not us, a bunch of people who may or may not currently be wearing diapers who will think we're loving morons and we won't even be able to fall back on the lead excuse.

Mellow Seas posted:

But some things we do try and manage health are response to a lot more deaths, and we don't reorganize our societies around them. And a lot of those issues are easier to deal with than "extremely contagious airborne coronavirus." Diabetes is a factor in 280,000 deaths a year, and the government makes attempts to improve the situation, but we don't take steps like banning soda and candy bars because it's considered a disproportionate response by pretty much everybody.

Diabetes is another good one that had taken hold before my time. I just continue to find the whole scenario astonishing(ly dumb).

nomad2020 fucked around with this message at 17:42 on May 5, 2023

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply