[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

Gravid Topiary: Feb 16, 2012

wildfire evacuation alerts to my west, northwest, northeast, and southeast while firefighting helicopters have been whizzing past and over my house the past few days and giving me Vietnam flashbacks

but i saw a northern flying squirrel on my bird-feeder an hour ago so it balances out

# ? May 5, 2023 06:29

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 12:04

nakieon: Aug 28, 2020

Gravid Topiary posted:

wildfire evacuation alerts to my west, northwest, northeast, and southeast while firefighting helicopters have been whizzing past and over my house the past few days and giving me Vietnam flashbacks

but i saw a northern flying squirrel on my bird-feeder an hour ago so it balances out

uplifting news indeed.

# ? May 5, 2023 07:31

Laterite: Mar 14, 2007; It's Gutfest '89; Grimey Drawer

Shifty Nipples posted:

I was born with hydrocephalus. lol

# ? May 5, 2023 07:40

TehSaurus: Jun 12, 2006

Just a Moron posted:

Hey babe, wanna see my wet bulb?

# ? May 5, 2023 07:57

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

once again we freaked out over nothing. mother nature heals itself no problem!

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1654085540235419649

# ? May 5, 2023 09:29

Raine: Apr 30, 2013; ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER

luckily that released heat safely disappears into the void so nbd

# ? May 5, 2023 09:49

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

More than 50,000 wild birds in UK killed by avian flu – double previous estimates (Guardian)

quote:

with numbers likely to escalate during this year’s breeding season.

more dead birds than previously estimated

quote:

Conservationists are warning that it could mean the extinction of some seabird species, as breeding colonies have been particularly badly hit.

quote:

Experts say this number is still likely to be a gross underestimate as there is no national monitoring and most carcasses are never found and not counted.

more dead birds than ever estimated

quote:

Conservationists at the Wildlife Trust said they had “never seen mortality this high before” at Yorkshire’s largest black-headed gull colony at North Cave Wetlands nature reserve, where 10% of the 2,000 breeding pairs of black-headed gulls have died.

drat. is there any good news?

quote:

However,

YES???

quote:

there are signs they could be over the worst of it.

phew, it's all fine then, wrap it up

quote:

NatureScot said

I SAID WRAP IT UP, THIS ARTICLE IS OVER

# ? May 5, 2023 10:19

Stinky Wizzleteats: Nov 26, 2015; Can't post for 13 hours!

hmm, this water stings wrong

# ? May 5, 2023 10:29

Stinky Wizzleteats: Nov 26, 2015; Can't post for 13 hours!

Radio man say no thing wrong

# ? May 5, 2023 10:31

kater: Nov 16, 2010

if all the birds die from avian flu we no longer have to worry about it spreading to mammals at least right?

# ? May 5, 2023 10:35

Stinky Wizzleteats: Nov 26, 2015; Can't post for 13 hours!

pls repost the melting dong

# ? May 5, 2023 10:48

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

kater posted:

if all the birds die from avian flu we no longer have to worry about it spreading to mammals at least right?

we would also no longer need to worry about letting our pet cats roam outside and being constantly harassed for it because they kill "millions of birds each year" or whatever the gently caress

# ? May 5, 2023 10:54

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

the crises are all solving themselves

# ? May 5, 2023 10:55

Stinky Wizzleteats: Nov 26, 2015; Can't post for 13 hours!

whew

# ? May 5, 2023 11:47

Puppy Burner: Sep 9, 2011

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

we would also no longer need to worry about letting our pet cats roam outside and being constantly harassed for it because they kill "millions of birds each year" or whatever the gently caress

Ironically, you should maybe keep your cats indoor now so they don't eat an infected (an therefor easier to catch) bird lol

# ? May 5, 2023 12:18

Stinky Wizzleteats: Nov 26, 2015; Can't post for 13 hours!

wake up, have tea, lap sang Souchong

# ? May 5, 2023 12:22

4d3d3d: Mar 17, 2017

Aaaaaaahhh!!!

aaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!

# ? May 5, 2023 12:30

Koirhor: Jan 14, 2008; by Fluffdaddy

ya ya birds, yet somehow I still got geese making GBS threads everywhere and the democraps have tied my hands on real solutions

# ? May 5, 2023 13:23

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

MightyBigMinus posted:

[biosphere collapse] Let's Finish the Job

# ? May 5, 2023 14:34

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

MightyBigMinus posted:

eyyyy happy earth day rime is risen

# ? May 5, 2023 14:36

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Hubbert posted:

Look at it this way.

You could otherwise be suffering with the knowledge of the world to come for decades, with nothing but your thoughts to occupy your time and research.

Instead, you get to post with your posting pals, and we get to watch the grand unraveling together.

Everyone here understands the gravity of the situation, and yet we can meme and shitpost and effortpost together.

You guys are okay in my book.

# ? May 5, 2023 14:42

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

MightyBigMinus posted:

i think this thread is way too doomer from a climate science perspective, but still winds up being muuuuuch closer to the truth than any other topical info&discussion source.

let me put it this way, if you get your climate science from real reports, and your understanding of all the tech/econ stuff from business news sources (not the marketing stuff, the quarterly financial reports stuff), and your deeper thinking from a bunch of good books... then this is an excellent place to hang out and share black humor about how insanely mind-bogglingly hosed everything is.

but if you get your news *from this thread*. or worse, from the seo garbage "article" infotainment system, then you are going to be functionally insane. just gibbering. I've had to put a handful of regulars here on ignore because it really is just incoherent wailing.

but then someone will photoshop a bdelle on a pitbull eating a suburban toddler and it'll all be worth scrolling through.

I am a hooting gibbon and I love thread

# ? May 5, 2023 14:49

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Gravid Topiary posted:

wildfire evacuation alerts to my west, northwest, northeast, and southeast while firefighting helicopters have been whizzing past and over my house the past few days and giving me Vietnam flashbacks

but i saw a northern flying squirrel on my bird-feeder an hour ago so it balances out

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

I am a hooting gibbon and I love thread

# ? May 5, 2023 15:08

TehSaurus: Jun 12, 2006

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

I am a hooting gibbon and I love thread

# ? May 5, 2023 15:42

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Cup Runneth Over posted:

I love FCP, posting archaeologist

# ? May 5, 2023 15:45

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Stereotype posted:

i'm going to do my rant about this here, because i feel like it is really commonly overlooked and it really shouldn't be. also i have a way of making our apparent misunderstanding of how predictions are made to insinuate that things are even worse than expected, faster than expected, so this is a great place to do it.

fits and models are very different things. the way that humans have understood and predicted the universe around them is by using models. it seems that people do not know what models are, and are conflating them with "fits." Fits are just taking a basic mathematical function, like a straight line or a line with a smooth curve, and using some equations to find out what constants will make them be closest to a set of points. "Linear regression" is probably something that people have heard of, and it's just a clever way of figuring out how a straight line can be drawn so that it goes between a bunch of points on a graph. A function is just a relationship between two variables, everyone always uses X and Y, and it's just f(x) = y. f(x) is then just some math stuff where there's an x, which is a value that can change, and doing that math stuff makes the value into y, which will be a different number. y=mx + b is how you describe a straight line for example. m and b are constant, they don't change, and their values describe where the line is on a graph. but you can write more complicated functions too, like y = ax^2 + bx + c or y = a*e^{b(x-c)} or whatever you want. there's infinite functions you can write. a fit then is just taking one of these functions and figuring out what the constants are that make it closest to the (x,y) coordinates that you have measured. in all the climate change graphs the x is time, it is the "independent" variable because it don't need no man, it just is; and the y value is "dependent" on x, and is whatever horrific thing we are experiencing like number of tornadoes or temperature of the surface of the sea (SST).

Now that everyone knows what a fit is, lets understand why that's different than a model. A model is something that uses an understanding of the physical phenomenon to choose the function. It's really important to understand that it isn't just a fit, it is a real thought through prediction. the idea is that you take a bunch of stuff that might seem unrelated to whatever your y is and figure out both how it is related to y and how it is related to x. this is obviously much more difficult, you need to understand lots of stuff and how it works and is inter-related and probably even have a bunch of fits. doing extra work sucks, so why do this? because this is how you actually make predictions, by understanding what is happening. i feel like recently i see pretty constant usage of fits of a particular dependent variable as a replacement to a model, but then when the fit works decently say "this is a model now."

The reason this made me type all these words is because a fit isn't a model. There is zero predictive power from a fit unless there is a reason why you would think that the mathematical function you have used is the complete explanation of that phenomenon. Saying "oh i used a polynomial fit as my model" is a stupid garbage statement. You didn't use a model at all, you just picked some function that fit your data, wow amazing good job moron. This means that any effects that aren't part of that function are not going to be accurately predicted, and since there is no reason to think that your random dumb function has anything to do with the very real phenomenon that is happening, it is very likely that your prediction will be wrong.

So the moral is that the reason that things keep getting worse faster than expected is because no one understand what a model is. we fit some super basic function to an extremely complicated process and are like "oh see it matches" and then are shocked when it doesn't keep behaving like that. "temps are going to increase linearly with C02" well there literally no reason to think that. anyway everyone is lazy and stupid as gently caress and it's gonna result in us all dying

looks like there's math in this post, that means it's correct

# ? May 5, 2023 15:51

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

FCP digs up posts that were laid down long ago and quotes them for lols. We can all recognise the appeal of lols but unsustainable quoting of fossil posts is becoming a big problem

# ? May 5, 2023 15:53

im_sorry: Jan 15, 2006; (9999); Ultra Carp

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

I am a hooting gibbon and I love thread

# ? May 5, 2023 16:47

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Mola Yam posted:

eat meat
beat meat
repeat

# ? May 5, 2023 18:02

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

once again we freaked out over nothing. mother nature heals itself no problem!

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1654085540235419649

if the oceans are maxed out in terms of the heat they can sink, we're in much deeper poo poo than we thought

# ? May 5, 2023 20:07

Dystopia Barbarian: Dec 25, 2022; by vyelkin

Largest freshwater turtle species doomed to extinction after last female washes up dead.

https://time.com/6275373/giant-yangtze-softshell-turtle-female-dies/

Capitalism has come for our turtle 🐢 friends.

Will you stand by and watch this happen???

# ? May 5, 2023 20:20

TehSaurus: Jun 12, 2006

yes

# ? May 5, 2023 20:27

MightyBigMinus: Jan 26, 2020

more sitting by

# ? May 5, 2023 21:10

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Zodium posted:

i'm an eco-plascist

# ? May 5, 2023 21:19

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

silicone thrills posted:

the fact that you had those collected and ready to go has brought such joy to my life

# ? May 5, 2023 21:21

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

mdemone posted:

if the oceans are maxed out in terms of the heat they can sink, we're in much deeper poo poo than we thought

i mean they aren't literally boiling so we're good for a little while longer i think

# ? May 5, 2023 21:38

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

once again we freaked out over nothing. mother nature heals itself no problem!

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1654085540235419649

OK but if we have many years of the higher temperatures, then it becomes normal and OK. Problem solved! USA! USA! :911:

USA! USA!

# ? May 5, 2023 21:51

Deep Dish Fuckfest: Sep 6, 2006; Advanced
Computer Touching; Toilet Rascal

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

i mean they aren't literally boiling so we're good for a little while longer i think

good news! once they start boiling then they'll be able to take in a lot of heat before their temperature starts rising again!

# ? May 5, 2023 23:45

Stereotype: Apr 24, 2010; College Slice

MightyBigMinus posted:

more sitting by

I�m basically lying

# ? May 5, 2023 23:59

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 12:04

Wheeee: Mar 11, 2001; When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

Dystopia Barbarian posted:

Largest freshwater turtle species doomed to extinction after last female washes up dead.

https://time.com/6275373/giant-yangtze-softshell-turtle-female-dies/

Capitalism has come for our turtle 🐢 friends.

Will you stand by and watch this happen???

quote:

The reptile, also known as the Ho�n Kiếm turtle, has been driven to the brink of disappearance by rising levels of pollution as well as decades of hunting for its meat and eggs.

# ? May 6, 2023 00:03

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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