|
Thanks for the replies! I'll definitely pass it along. Some more infornation: As it turns out, they're in a fairly low tax bracket and the property sale wasn't enough to break the 250k profit margin; so it looks like they're paying state estate sale tax and keeping the rest. Follow up: with the incoming recession/depression/market crash, is the old advice of 'hold in cash and buy in when the dust settles' still the way to go?
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 23:04 |
|
|
TheParadigm posted:Follow up: with the incoming recession/depression/market crash, is the old advice of 'hold in cash and buy in when the dust settles' still the way to go? Oh you have a working crystal ball? Please tell us when the market will hit bottom so we know when to buy in.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:25
|
|
|
TheParadigm posted:Follow up: with the incoming recession/depression/market crash, is the old advice of 'hold in cash and buy in when the dust settles' still the way to go? I think the advice is don’t try to time the market. But if you’re going to retire, a portfolio weighted towards fixed income such as bonds might make more sense that one that is mostly stocks.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:26
|
|
|
TheParadigm posted:Thanks for the replies! I'll definitely pass it along. No, the new advice that has been borne out is that it's a bad choice to time the market - you end up losing out on a lot of gains while you wait for "the right moment". The chance of a future market crash is already priced in - if you have a planned asset allocation between stocks and bonds, just move to it ASAP or spread out over a month or two.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:26
|
|
|
Trying to time the market is like trying to catch a falling knife.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:32
|
|
|
TheParadigm posted:Thanks for the replies! I'll definitely pass it along. Don't time the market.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:39
|
|
|
If stocks are guaranteed to go down, why isn't the market reacting? It's stupid to sell, especially during a downturn. If you're forced to sell, such as through RMDs, that's a different story. Don't try to time the market. That's for professional traders to try, most of whom will leverage incredible resources in their attempt and still get it wrong.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2023 22:49
|
|
|
Muir posted:Trying to time the market is like trying to catch a falling knife. But if I time it just right I’ll have a cool knife for free!
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 02:24
|
|
|
SamDabbers posted:Oh you have a working crystal ball? Please tell us when the market will hit bottom so we know when to buy in. Mans asked a question. No need to be a dick.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 02:29
|
|
|
Jows posted:Mans asked a question. No need to be a dick. Fair, that came out snarky. Apologies.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 03:00
|
|
|
SamDabbers posted:Fair, that came out snarky. Apologies. I read it as a funny joke on a comedy forum.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 04:13
|
|
|
Only thing I'd add is it's always a good idea to re-evaluate your asset allocation. If you're getting nervous then maybe you should beef up your emergency fund. I used to be happy with 3 months but after COVID i'm at 6 months now.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 05:28
|
|
|
SamDabbers posted:Oh you have a working crystal ball? Please tell us when the market will hit bottom so we know when to buy in. The answer is clearly right now, by shorting things on the way down until just before the bottom, and then leveraging back the other way as it rises on the upside, of course.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 05:47
|
|
|
Atahualpa posted:TSP question: I recently switched my TSP contributions from traditional to Roth; is there any way on the TSP site to tell the total funds in your traditional TSP vs. Roth TSP? Looking at the account summary it appears to only break them down in terms of contributions (with a separate row for gains that I assume combines both) and I don't see that info elsewhere either. I checked my last quarterly statement and it appears to show the total Roth balance under the "Your Balances" header but it would be nice if there were some way to check the current breakdown as well. You can find total contributions broken up into traditional and Roth contributions! In the app, it's under Contribution Details > Contibution Balances > Your Earnings and Contributions (Agency contributions are all traditional). It could be completely different on the website because lol TSP, but I bet it's there somewhere. I think your allocation decisions affect your whole account. I've never found a way to split things based on contribution type.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2023 22:11
|
|
|
esquilax posted:No, the new advice that has been borne out is that it's a bad choice to time the market - you end up losing out on a lot of gains while you wait for "the right moment". The chance of a future market crash is already priced in - if you have a planned asset allocation between stocks and bonds, just move to it ASAP or spread out over a month or two. I've read multiple analysis saying lump-sum investment vs. dollar-cost averaging is better but having lived through the absolute shitstorm of early 2022 when the stock market took a fantastic poo poo on my portfolio (and the 5 figures lump-sum just invested into standard routines) at the time makes me still queasy. I know rational mind/walk, blah blah blah but man, I kind of understand what people who lost everything in the 2008 crash went through, at least a little.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2023 21:53
|
|
|
You only lose if you panic and sell while it's down.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2023 22:01
|
|
|
Dollar cost averaging been feeling good, despite knowing it is ~sub-optimal~
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2023 22:22
|
|
|
adnam posted:I kind of understand what people who lost everything in the 2008 crash went through, at least a little. I've heard this a few times and never understood what people mean. There was no point the market was down 100% or anywhere close to it. If someone invested at the absolute peak, they could have been at a net loss for a few years, but even selling at the absolute bottom wouldn't have been a total loss.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2023 22:32
|
|
|
Your stocks were down 50%, you lost your job, sold your stocks, used it to pay the bills
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2023 22:36
|
|
|
GoGoGadgetChris posted:Your stocks were down 50%, you lost your job, sold your stocks, used it to pay the bills This definitely happened to some people, but a hell of a lot of people did crazy poo poo because they saw a paper number going down and that hosed em worse than any recession could have by itself.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 00:53
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:This definitely happened to some people, but a hell of a lot of people did crazy poo poo because they saw a paper number going down and that hosed em worse than any recession could have by itself. For sure, but this was a question of how Number turned into Zero rather than 50%. It took more than an itchy trigger finger to actually Lose it all, rather than lock in big losses Maybe some people put it all into Options that expired worthless?
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 00:56
|
|
|
GoGoGadgetChris posted:For sure, but this was a question of how Number turned into Zero rather than 50%. It took more than an itchy trigger finger to actually Lose it all, rather than lock in big losses Iirc options trading among retail traders only exploded within the past few years (robinhood).
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 02:06
|
|
|
GoGoGadgetChris posted:Your stocks were down 50%, you lost your job, sold your stocks, used it to pay the bills amusingly, this is a reasonable analogy for what happened to SVB and some other regionals. They heavily invested in long-duration assets (bonds) without properly managing risk and had large unrealized losses on those assets, their depositors fled (the bankers "lost their job" serving that client), the bank had to sell assets (bonds) to cover liabilities (the fled deposits, selling to "pay the bills"). then uh some of the bankers REALLY lost their jobs.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 14:06
|
|
|
My friends mom lost a ton of money in options during 2008-2009, but she also worked in finance so was a little less retail than most. I'm still working on convincing that friend that the stock market isn't a money eating monster
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 16:08
|
|
|
I was dicking around with options back then, but they still had the aura of being a kind of dark magic. Might've been better off for a lot of people if they'd kept that reputation...
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 16:21
|
|
|
A few years ago I decided I wanted to try my hand at trading options and my broker, correctly, denied me. Thanks Fidelity!
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 18:20
|
|
|
That's cool but also kind of wild. What do they base that decision on?
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 20:25
|
|
|
Unsinkabear posted:That's cool but also kind of wild. What do they base that decision on? Self-attestations about your net worth, trading experience, and general investment sophistication. I could have just lied, but I figured that lying in paperwork to the company that managed six figures of my money was a bad idea. I understand that it’s standard for grown-up brokers with actual risk management (unlike Robinhood).
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 20:42
|
|
|
I had multiple people in my extended network of friends who sold off all of their stocks after the 2008 crash and then bought back in a few years later, and one of them was newly retired (worst years for sequence of returns risk). Many of them thought they were financially literate because they watched CNBC or whatever and none of them were mentally prepared for a crash, so they made the worst decision. Having your portfolio match your risk tolerance is the key to everything. As I'm working on my retirement glide path I've been moving into more stable investments for the past few years. I've missed some gains but I'm also getting set up so I won't need to touch my stocks for the first 5 years of retirement, meaning I should be able to survive hiccups or even a crash on par with 2008. Time your need for the assets, not the market (and save all you can).
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 22:01
|
|
|
my own dearly beloved father sold off in 1984, 1994, 2001, and 2008. he's almost entirely in fixed income assets now. thank god our family pretty much lived like misers and my parents have watched their house appreciate to astronomical values. smart guy, and cfo at a smally company, but just absolutely no risk tolerance and no recognition of that fact until way later than you want
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 22:07
|
|
|
Tricky Ed posted:Having your portfolio match your risk tolerance is the key to everything. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2023 23:01
|
|
|
And "this time it's different" so stay the course has no relevance
|
|
#
?
May 7, 2023 01:17
|
|
|
 Circled 2008, 2020 and 2022 big dips. It is human fallacy to see poo poo go down and think “omg I need to sell” or “omg this will happen again and I’ll lose everything.” Which….you never know. But the best hedge you can do on something this large, is just have a large, balanced portfolio (IE like VTI) , continue to contribute to it as much as you can based on just how much you can afford to contribute , let it ride, and probably most importantly have large enough emergency funds where it keeps you comfortable from panicking and pulling your long term investments.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 01:36
|
|
|
Honestly I think half of the panic is from how recent losses look compared to previous crashes, when presented on a graph like that. 2008, as major as it was, looks fairly small in that graph compared to smaller, more recent losses. I think that alone contributes a lot to the 'this time is different' mentality.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 02:06
|
|
|
They had a story on Marketplace yesterday about people who think AI will take over in the next 10-15 years. no reason to go to college, no reason to save for retirement, some percentage chance we will be dead. Spend the money now as it will not matter. It was really something.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 02:36
|
|
|
I've been reading about AI putting like 90% of lawyers out of a job for years now and I hope that finally comes true
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 03:25
|
|
|
spwrozek posted:They had a story on Marketplace yesterday about people who think AI will take over in the next 10-15 years. no reason to go to college, no reason to save for retirement, some percentage chance we will be dead. Spend the money now as it will not matter. It was really something. A significant number of people stopped saving for retirement in the 70s-80s because they were convinced the world would end in nuclear holocaust
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 03:33
|
|
|
Not a Children posted:A significant number of people stopped saving for retirement in the 70s-80s because they were convinced the world would end in nuclear holocaust It def still can !
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 13:31
|
|
|
Duckman2008 posted:It def still can ! Worst case scenario from a financial perspective: it doesn't and you live past 100.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 14:39
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 23:04 |
|
|
In every era there have been doomers, millenarians, etc who decide the world is going to end and therefore don’t prepare for the future. Only difference is there are more people now and you’re more likely to hear about them.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2023 15:38
|
|