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Biggest disappointment of 2023?
The Dallas Cowboys (gently caress 'em)
The New York Giants
The Philadephia Eagles
The Washington Washingtons
Myself for watching NFC East Clownball
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blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
Here's a good Twitter thread for smart people who know lots about football and have good opinions:
https://twitter.com/CowboysStats/status/1655702300743041025?t=Wzuc5uZJVFZW5RvaKjz6kA&s=19

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Diqnol
May 10, 2010

blarzgh posted:

Here's a good Twitter thread for smart people who know lots about football and have good opinions:
https://twitter.com/CowboysStats/status/1655702300743041025?t=Wzuc5uZJVFZW5RvaKjz6kA&s=19

thanks for the graph from 2019

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Diqnol posted:

thanks for the graph from 2019

"Read the full conversation on Twitter" and you will find that by comparing Daks results on third down across several seasons, using the metrics from the 2019 study, that, in correlation with a spike in interceptions in 2022 on third down, there's also a steep fall off in receiver separation and yards after the catch, on 3rd down.

And, despite the added interceptions, Dak still got top of the league results on third down overall.

Toaster Beef
Jan 23, 2007

that's not nature's way
i dunno man, i was just digging through some of the latest metrics and

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Toaster Beef posted:

i dunno man, i was just digging through some of the latest metrics and



Solid research, but I believe it should be “poo” and “poo poo”.

Toaster Beef
Jan 23, 2007

that's not nature's way
i am not a man of science

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

blarzgh posted:

"Read the full conversation on Twitter" and you will find that by comparing Daks results on third down across several seasons, using the metrics from the 2019 study, that, in correlation with a spike in interceptions in 2022 on third down, there's also a steep fall off in receiver separation and yards after the catch, on 3rd down.

And, despite the added interceptions, Dak still got top of the league results on third down overall.

Did you know he's 2-4 in the playoffs?

Did you know that since entering the NFL in 2016, Dak Prescott is 22-25 against teams that finished the season with a winning record?

Here's a stat from 2020 since you want to go back to there:

quote:

Last season, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were 1-6 against playoff teams and 7-2 against non-playoff teams.

Dak threw for an even 8 TD-8 Int in their games against playoff teams, and 22 TD-3 Int against non-playoff teams.

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

can't figure out why people are that jealous of dak

beep by grandpa
May 5, 2004

jalen hurts is cool as gently caress and i love that i see a lot of twitter accounts in sports tweets that have hiim as their pfp doing :colbert: from that kickoff game he threw that bomb for a td to show the haters what was coming

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

Toaster Beef posted:

i dunno man, i was just digging through some of the latest metrics and



I feel like you're just copying my graphs now

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont

Toaster Beef posted:

i dunno man, i was just digging through some of the latest metrics and



Been drawing ten for ten years and it is infuriating how ill never even reach your level

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

blarzgh posted:



And, despite the added interceptions,

Lol

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
I'm pretty sure saying that your qb still plays the same despite big spike in interceptions means he's just not good and his performance is thusly irrelevant to game outcomes.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Cavauro posted:

can't figure out why people are that jealous of dak

Because they don't like that Dallas, despite being run by a horny old lich who treats his team like a therapy pillow for his childish insecurities, have lucked into two franchise QBs in the last 10 years

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


Now if only they could get the "get at least one ring" part 2 of the other 3 teams immediately around them took care of in that timespan, they would be unstoppable

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Diqnol posted:

Did you know he's 2-4 in the playoffs?

Did you know that since entering the NFL in 2016, Dak Prescott is 22-25 against teams that finished the season with a winning record?

Here's a stat from 2020 since you want to go back to there:

"X - X against playoff teams/ teams are the winning record" is a made up stat, It means only one thing: You either are or you are not Tom Brady who is the only quarterback that has significantly more wins against teams have finished with > .500 record that any other quarterback in history basically

Playoff teams are generally only one or two games above 500 sometimes if that, and a good team will win 11 to 14 games a year, dealing many teams that one loss that ultimately keeps them out of the playoffs or from having a winning record.

So what you're doing is contriving a stat that a) assumes that a quarterback is 100% responsible for the outcome of the game, which is dumb ESPN bullshit, and 2) punishes teams who are successful, and to turn several teams a season into teams that don't make the playoffs and or finish below 500

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Diqnol posted:

Did you know he's 2-4 in the playoffs?

Did you know that since entering the NFL in 2016, Dak Prescott is 22-25 against teams that finished the season with a winning record?

Here's a stat from 2020 since you want to go back to there:

Try this (from 2021, numbers are basically the same)

blarzgh posted:

When a team's defense allows 30+ points, the BEST quarterbacks in the NFL only win about 25% of their games.

https://twitter.com/catchtheblitz/status/1264205320030769153?s=20

Dak is the 4th best.

So yes, being a team game and all, having your defense give up points left and right will affect your QB WINNZZZZ

Despite that fact Dak Still won more games in his first 4 seasons than all but 5 other quarterbacks Ever, in the History of football.

Versus teams with a winning record: Dak Prescott 13-20

Aaron Rodgers 36-43
Baker Mayfield 6-14
Josh Allen 7-10
Justin Herbert 1-5
Deshaun Watson 7-19
Matthew Stafford 8-67

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Think of how many more games dak would win if he were better at defense.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

blarzgh posted:

"X - X against playoff teams/ teams are the winning record" is a made up stat, It means only one thing: You either are or you are not Tom Brady who is the only quarterback that has significantly more wins against teams have finished with > .500 record that any other quarterback in history basically

Playoff teams are generally only one or two games above 500 sometimes if that, and a good team will win 11 to 14 games a year, dealing many teams that one loss that ultimately keeps them out of the playoffs or from having a winning record.

So what you're doing is contriving a stat that a) assumes that a quarterback is 100% responsible for the outcome of the game, which is dumb ESPN bullshit, and 2) punishes teams who are successful, and to turn several teams a season into teams that don't make the playoffs and or finish below 500

Mahomes is better than Brady on this front even though he has fewer games. His record against winning teams is 0.625. Brady is 0.611. Jimmy G is next at 0.565, DangerRuss at 0.542. That’s it for winning records. Lamar is at 0.500. Losing records is Throw Rogan at 0.483, Mariota at 0.480 and Dak at 0.468. Goff and Allen are the only others above 0.400 at 0.451 and 0.444 respectively. Herbie is at 0.400.


Source: https://sportsandfitnessdigest.com/active-nfl-quarterback-records-against-winning-teams/

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont
*Dak Prescott, falling down a cliff in the grand canyon to his death*

Blarzgh: yeah but look how many rocks he hit with his head on the way down, he's actually an elite tumbler

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.
I mean, in the stat that was brought up (wins against teams with winning records) he’s one of the best in the league and better than any other QB in the NFCE.

Most QBs have a very bad record against teams with winning records. Dak, at near .500, is better than most QBs.

Toaster Beef
Jan 23, 2007

that's not nature's way
i think dak prescott is a very good quarterback and i respect his abilities, i just think it's possible to be a very good and respectable quarterback while also never accomplishing anything worth a drat

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Dak's game losing slide is still one of the worst plays in NFL history

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

Mr. Nice! posted:

I mean, in the stat that was brought up (wins against teams with winning records) he’s one of the best in the league and better than any other QB in the NFCE.

Most QBs have a very bad record against teams with winning records. Dak, at near .500, is better than most QBs.

Thank you for demonstrating that stats can be spun to support any narrative which goes back to the overarching point that stats are irrelevant in the face of rings and wins

Are you really gonna stan Dak as a cope for how badly run the Cowboys org is? If you don’t win, did it matter? Is the point you’re trying to make that your guy would win more on a better team? Isn’t that obvious?

Toaster Beef
Jan 23, 2007

that's not nature's way
like you can show me all the evidence and metrics and data pointing to dak being a remarkable talent and i will nod along with them because i believe that to be the case, but the second part of that conversation will forever be "okay, but, like, he didn't win anything" until he actually wins something

if you asked me right now if i'd take prescott or hurts — eliminating age as a factor — i'd say prescott, just because he's been a good-to-very good QB for a much longer stretch, but if last year doesn't turn out to have been lightning in a bottle and hurts brings the team back to the NFCCG or SB during this window, i have to start looking at what dak's been able to do with his own very good rosters over the years. and that's not scientific or maybe even fair, but unless you're in the marino/manning/rodgers tier you've gotta show you can Do Something in the Postseason and dak is not in the marino/manning/rodgers tier

Toaster Beef fucked around with this message at 17:42 on May 9, 2023

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont
Decimals are where dorks go to cope about their empty ring fingers

beep by grandpa
May 5, 2004

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Dak's game losing slide is still one of the worst plays in NFL history

And funniest

Tom Sellout
May 27, 2011

$240 million of Johnny Walker Blue and Throatzilla's services.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Dak's game losing slide is still one of the worst plays in NFL history

Personally I don't think it's anywhere close to the :romo:

I hope Dak gets to go ring chasing before his prime comes to an end.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

He could be a TE or similar on the eagles

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Febreeze posted:

Decimals are where dorks go to cope about their empty ring fingers

You could tell me this was a quote from Joe
Judge or maybe Gettleman and I’d believe it.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

He’s have to take a pay cut tho.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Has a sports writer ever been concerned about the weight of a white player.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
Pat?

e: oh nm

Pontius Pilate
Jul 25, 2006

Crucify, Whale, Crucify
Luka? Or are you saying something about Slovenians??

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

euphronius posted:

Has a sports writer ever been concerned about the weight of a white player.

Jared Lorenzen (RIP) was a Big Beautiful Super Bowl Champion.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Diqnol posted:

Thank you for demonstrating that stats can be spun to support any narrative which goes back to the overarching point that stats are irrelevant in the face of rings and wins

Are you really gonna stan Dak as a cope for how badly run the Cowboys org is? If you don’t win, did it matter? Is the point you’re trying to make that your guy would win more on a better team? Isn’t that obvious?

First off you're new here so I'll forgive you: I'm the president of the Dak Prescott Fan Club, not him.

Secondly, "Stats" contain useful information to people who like football and want to learn more about it, and understand it better.

To people who eat shoe leather and huff paint while watching ESPN and Skip Bayless on Yellfight(tm), and say things like, "QB winzz" unironically, no, stats don't mean very much, mostly because math, and too many words scare them.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
Notice as well that all the farty, bloated Giants fans have sworn a blood oath to abhor statistics, So they can pretend that Eli Was anything more than a below average quarterback carried by luck, variance, and an all-world defense to two titles.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

blarzgh posted:

Notice as well that all the farty, bloated Giants fans have sworn a blood oath to abhor statistics, So they can pretend that Eli Was anything more than a below average quarterback carried by luck, variance, and an all-world defense to two titles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYTPgW5PJFU&t=24s

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont

blarzgh posted:

Notice as well that all the farty, bloated Giants fans have sworn a blood oath to abhor statistics, So they can pretend that Eli Was anything more than a below average quarterback carried by luck, variance, and an all-world defense to two titles.

I'm fine with statistics, I'm just extremely tired of tiny stupid ones illustrating that Dak is actually the third best QB on long downs in the second quarter or whatever the gently caress

Just say he's good, because he is

Febreeze fucked around with this message at 21:16 on May 9, 2023

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Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k
I think Dak can win a championship but I'm also aware of Jerry Jones and his monkey paw luck that I can also believe Dak has already hit his peak and is about to drop really fast.


I never considered him a running quarterback, more as a quarterback that could run on ya occasionally. Losing that to injury and overall coaching reluctance I think hurts more of his game than he realizes.


I will poo poo on him when he implodes though. Because he can't hear me and he has a lot more money than me.

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