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fatherboxx)
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I know absolutely nothing but from what I've learned from you guys over the past year or so the US/EU stationing NATO bodies and assets in Ukraine as a trip wire defense seems really unlikely and would be seen from Russia as a giant escalation.
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May 10, 2023 02:43
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saratoga posted:The US/EU are sitting on something like a couple hundred billion in Russian assets and reserves that were frozen in overseas banks. There is no short term need for that money, but they're going to want it back eventually, and that isn't going to happen without a formal agreement to end the fighting. That money will near certainly go towards reparations, though it's far from covering for all the damage Russia did.
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May 10, 2023 02:49
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cr0y posted:I know absolutely nothing but from what I've learned from you guys over the past year or so the US/EU stationing NATO bodies and assets in Ukraine as a trip wire defense seems really unlikely and would be seen from Russia as a giant escalation. I could see it as a result of a treaty allowing US bases in Ukraine, independent of NATO, like with South Korea or Japan. At that point, there wouldn't be much Russia could do about it. I think the probability of such a treaty is fairly low, but if Ukraine formally requests it, it would be hard for the US to say no.
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May 10, 2023 02:49
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OddObserver posted:That money will near certainly go towards reparations, though it's far from covering for all the damage Russia did. The threat that this could happen is why they'll eventually choose to negotiate. So far though, the Russians are nominally due most of it back eventually.
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May 10, 2023 03:06
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Deteriorata posted:I could see it as a result of a treaty allowing US bases in Ukraine, independent of NATO, like with South Korea or Japan. At that point, there wouldn't be much Russia could do about it. Fun fact: permitting foreign bases in Ukraine would require a special kind of constitutional amendment (to Ukrainian Constitution, that is) that requires a national referendum alongside 2/3rd parliamentary approval. (See Article 17 and Article 156). There was previously a transitional clause that permitted Russian presence in Crimea to be grandfathered, which was sufficiently vague to be possibly misused for such a purpose... but it was removed by the very amendment that stated that joining EU and NATO was a goal.
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May 10, 2023 03:12
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If Ukraine pushes out Russia, why wouldn’t Ukraine join NATO? With Russia’s track record of invading whenever they feel like it, it kinda seems like their only way to guarantee they won’t get invaded in *rolls dice* 12 years.
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May 10, 2023 03:43
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:If Ukraine pushes out Russia, why wouldn’t Ukraine join NATO? With Russia’s track record of invading whenever they feel like it, it kinda seems like their only way to guarantee they won’t get invaded in *rolls dice* 12 years. Joining NATO isn't going to happen overnight. Accession may take a decade or more once the war is over. Ukraine may want some sort of security guarantor in the interim.
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May 10, 2023 03:45
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saratoga posted:The US/EU are sitting on something like a couple hundred billion in Russian assets and reserves that were frozen in overseas banks. There is no short term need for that money, but they're going to want it back eventually, and that isn't going to happen without a formal agreement to end the fighting. This is why it's so useful to keep that money locked up for the time being. The money could go to reparations, but if it could be used to buy lasting peace on favorable terms, it's a far better bargain
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May 10, 2023 03:54
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OddObserver posted:Fun fact: permitting foreign bases in Ukraine would require a special kind of constitutional amendment (to Ukrainian Constitution, that is) that requires a national referendum alongside 2/3rd parliamentary approval. I have a feeling political support for that in Ukraine, if NATO accession does not seem imminent after the war, would be extremely high. If they can't join NATO allowing US bases in Ukraine is the next best thing. Especially since both Ukraine and the US have precedent cases for doing that with other nations. Honestly that sounds like an easier option than joining NATO. It only requires the 2 countries to consent while accomplishing effectively the same goal. And the US could probably do it even if all of Ukraine's pre-2014 territory is not returned, whereas convincing NATO to let a partially liberated Ukraine in could be very complicated. But on more immediate matters, hearing more about a counter-attack on Russia's south flank around Bakmut towards Klishchiivka, including a possible Bradley field sighting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBWGSIQd-Co&t=133s (  some drone combat footage including soldiers fleeing from a tank at close range, and a destroyed armored vehicle)
Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 03:57 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 03:54
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Orthanc6 posted:I have a feeling political support for that in Ukraine, if NATO accession does not seem imminent after the war, would be extremely high. If they can't join NATO allowing US bases in Ukraine is the next best thing. Especially since both Ukraine and the US have precedent cases for doing that with other nations. That’s kind of my take as well. I would include the UK as well since they have been heavily involved in all of this I would imagine they would likely want to contribute to Ukraine’s security after the fact as well.
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May 10, 2023 04:09
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Didn't see this mentioned in re: Putin's stupid parade, and it should be. https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1655945049526669316
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May 10, 2023 04:23
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cr0y posted:I know absolutely nothing but from what I've learned from you guys over the past year or so the US/EU stationing NATO bodies and assets in Ukraine as a trip wire defense seems really unlikely and would be seen from Russia as a giant escalation. You should look up how close the closest US bases and NATO in general already are to Russia. That's already the status quo
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May 10, 2023 04:56
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/japan-foreign-minister-hayashi-nato-intl-hnk So that just dropped. Japan opening a “NATO liaison office” is surely going to make both Russia and more importantly China very unhappy.
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May 10, 2023 06:09
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I guess to some people there's nothing more offensive than aligning with a defensive alliance.
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May 10, 2023 06:13
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Geez, the "NA" part of NATO is really getting a stretch these days, huh? What's the payload on the storm shadows?
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May 10, 2023 06:38
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Djarum posted:https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/japan-foreign-minister-hayashi-nato-intl-hnk articles 5 and 6 of the us-japan security treaty arguably already gives japan quasi-nato status in the ways that really matter, but it does again highlight that if the overarching goal was to isolate america and move the eu and east asia towards a more regional and multipolar outlook, it has almost certainly failed
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May 10, 2023 06:46
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Orthanc6 posted:I have a feeling political support for that in Ukraine, if NATO accession does not seem imminent after the war, would be extremely high. If they can't join NATO allowing US bases in Ukraine is the next best thing. Especially since both Ukraine and the US have precedent cases for doing that with other nations.
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May 10, 2023 06:59
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I'll just put it out there, if Australia's allowed into Eurovision it should also be allowed into NATO! It does sort of bring up though, with a lot of these strategic alliances proximate of the allying countries often seems like it isn't so much a factor now days. With globalized trade, and modern armies capable -and usually expected to- fight on the other side of the world it been seemingly like less of an issue, to most western militaries at least. Also I think most countries would be practical enough that they wouldn't really care if the treaty name no longer accurately related to the treaty itself. It would really bug the hell out of some people though, I know that.
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May 10, 2023 07:17
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The North Atlantic and Baltic and Black Sea Treaty Organization
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May 10, 2023 07:42
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:If Ukraine pushes out Russia, why wouldn’t Ukraine join NATO? With Russia’s track record of invading whenever they feel like it, it kinda seems like their only way to guarantee they won’t get invaded in *rolls dice* 12 years. Do we think everyone would readily commit to allowing them in? I mean, Sweden is already having trouble. OAquinas posted:Geez, the "NA" part of NATO is really getting a stretch these days, huh? Yeah, I don't understand how this would work exactly?
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May 10, 2023 07:53
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Not Another Treaty Organization Eh, Im sure somebody can come up with a better name or just do the usual thing of just officially becoming Nato, with no periods and standing for nothing.
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May 10, 2023 07:57
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Barudak posted:Not Another Treaty Organization It's already essentially the North America Treaty Organization
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May 10, 2023 08:02
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Call it the Pacific Occidental Trans Atlantic Treaty Organization
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May 10, 2023 08:12
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The Soviet Union did it better by just naming their alliance after a city. New York Treaty Organisation. NYTO. Could have worked, but noooo, we had to know better
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May 10, 2023 08:48
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dr_rat posted:I'll just put it out there, if Australia's allowed into Eurovision it should also be allowed into NATO! There is already AUKUS which Canada is making noises about joining so I could see a Pacific based defence alliance like NATO start to grow.
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May 10, 2023 09:03
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Good thread by Greg Yudin about the framing of inevitable defeat. A bit too far in vibes-based reporting since the war may go in same tempo for 5 years or so but pretty rational. https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1656074583559262208?t=bNxdoGNlbB6GGC2kRuZUQg&s=19 Discendo Vox posted:Call it the Pacific Occidental Trans Atlantic Treaty Organization :clap: fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 09:14 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 09:10
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OddObserver posted:That money will near certainly go towards reparations, though it's far from covering for all the damage Russia did. That money IRC was about one month worth of Russian GDP. If it was used for reparation, it will surely trigger more sell off of US debt and bonds and moving toward non-Swift currency trade to decrease USD foreign reserve by Saudi and other countries. China is already doing it so I don't count them.
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May 10, 2023 09:19
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stephenthinkpad posted:That money IRC was about one month worth of Russian GDP. If it was used for reparation, it will surely trigger more sell off of US debt and bonds and moving toward non-Swift currency trade to decrease USD foreign reserve by Saudi and other countries. China is already doing it so I don't count them. The frozen assets of Russian central bank are US$ 300 bln. Annual Russian state revenue from oil and gas export is about US$ 193 bln. Considering that US is not in the rush to actually seize those assets it looks like they expect it to be a part of future negotiations (lock on it for foreseeable future if Russia does not budge on security guarantees or a subject of bilateral reparations/compensations talks)
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May 10, 2023 09:37
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stephenthinkpad posted:That money IRC was about one month worth of Russian GDP. If it was used for reparation, it will surely trigger more sell off of US debt and bonds and moving toward non-Swift currency trade to decrease USD foreign reserve by Saudi and other countries. China is already doing it so I don't count them. Countries have been threatening moves away from the dollar since the 1920s and they still haven't done it. They said exactly the same thing when America froze those assets in the first place. In any event, that's not a good reason to not do the right thing. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 09:55 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 09:39
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With yesterday's Victory Day being the 78th anniversary basic math enthusiasts know that there are not many veterans around but Putin went even farther and just selected NKVD-KGB butchers. Few more years and he is going to wear the medals himself. https://twitter.com/agents_media/status/1655992185429295104?t=ur_U6e-p3N0TP0RxRvvN-w&s=19 quote:Vladimir Putin sat next to two veterans at the Victory Parade on Red Square. However, neither of them fought against the Nazi forces. One of the veterans was a member of the NKVD who fought against the underground in Ukraine, and the second veteran took part in the suppression of the Prague Spring, according to analysis by the Agency.
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May 10, 2023 10:21
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Pook Good Mook posted:Countries have been threatening moves away from the dollar since the 1920s and they still haven't done it. They said exactly the same thing when America froze those assets in the first place. That's because historically, the US (like the British empire before it) respects loans and financial agreements above all other considerations. People within their own border may be paupered, morals may be bent but one thing that does not happen is the financial contract is reneged upon. Once the money men no longer consider you a safe haven, then they will be desperate and unsympathetic in their pursuit of additional safety. It has been the ruin of many an empire over the course of history.
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May 10, 2023 10:32
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Herstory Begins Now posted:You should look up how close the closest US bases and NATO in general already are to Russia. That's already the status quo From a historical Finnish perspective (please don't ban me fatherboxx for history nerdery), this has been a massive foreign policy issue slash problem. The Soviet Union spent a lot of effort and bullying about their concerns with Norway and Denmark being in NATO, and conversely Finland of the Cold War era had many foreign policy proposals aimed at diffusing this situation. Obviously Finnish leaders understood if a shooting war started the Soviets would want to use Finnish territory to assault Norway, and Finnish leaders also understood NATO / US understood this too, so Finland was in a perilous position.
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May 10, 2023 11:34
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Electric Wrigglies posted:That's because historically, the US (like the British empire before it) respects loans and financial agreements above all other considerations. People within their own border may be paupered, morals may be bent but one thing that does not happen is the financial contract is reneged upon. Where are they gonna go? No one wants to accept rubles, and no one trusts the Chinese banking and stock markets. Oil is traded in dollars and pounds and the two largest stock markets are in dollars. Of the top ten stock exchanges, 7 are "Western" markets. Luxury goods markets and real estate will be affected for a few years, at most. None of the oligarchs will permanently stay away. They will still send their kids to school in London, they will still vacation in France, and they will still buy property in Miami. They can talk a big talk but none of them honestly want to cut the West or its decadence from their lives. They are greedy capitalists on their best days, and hypocrites on all the other days. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 12:09 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 12:01
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656256203432013824?t=cBmCEq1_oeBohk0zWrEz8w&s=19 Finally, a background for the recent pantsshitting media blitz from Prigozhin - absence of communication between Wagner and the army resulted in their asses getting kicked (also confirmed from Ukrainian side by Andriy Biletsky)
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May 10, 2023 12:23
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I've been incredulous on Prigozhin's rants but it looks like Putin may actually have a rogue general on his hands. How the hell do you even begin to handle such a situation?
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May 10, 2023 13:05
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PIZZA.BAT posted:I've been incredulous on Prigozhin's rants but it looks like Putin may actually have a rogue general on his hands. How the hell do you even begin to handle such a situation? His main business is still on a government contracts lifeline (food supply and catering) and if they get cut, he becomes just moderately rich property owner with a loud bot farm. If he starts doing things instead of just running mouth, his forces will just be starved out and left holding the bag when frontline becomes hot.
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May 10, 2023 13:19
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 Apparently, old Prigo's claims that Russian soldiers have abandoned their posts was real: Ukraine claims they retook 8km² of Bakhmut today
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May 10, 2023 13:23
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656256203432013824?t=cBmCEq1_oeBohk0zWrEz8w&s=19 War in Ukraine CE: Worse than women, honestly
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May 10, 2023 13:40
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spankmeister posted:The North Atlantic and Baltic and Black Sea and Northern Pacific Treaty Organization NABBSNPTO
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May 10, 2023 13:46
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PIZZA.BAT posted:I've been incredulous on Prigozhin's rants but it looks like Putin may actually have a rogue general on his hands. How the hell do you even begin to handle such a situation? You have the Retaking ~20% of the territory in Bakhmut is a big deal tactically. Ukraine was kind of hanging on by its fingernails, and now has an actual foothold again. Does anyone know if the Russian 72nd Brigade referenced in some of the tweets is the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade? One of the Russian VDV divisions has been parked east of Bakhmut as an operational reserve for some time. I'd be surprised if it were not heavily depleted, but it's an important operational reserve Ukraine would want to tie up prior to major offensive operations. I'm wondering if Ukraine is trying to get that unit to come into Bakhmut proper. (That VDV division is probably the one providing Wagner with artillery support.)
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May 10, 2023 13:52
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