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I'd be interested in seeing if that's also the case right now, vs. the great recession. My understanding is that the rising prices as reflected in the CPI over the last three years are heavily weighted towards energy (a special category because its weight on transportation costs which in turn affects basically everything), and food. And these are currently moving in opposite directions, at least as of March:  In november 2021 this article showed where the inflation was worst at the time: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-inflation-which-categories-have-been-hit-the-hardest/  "New vehicles" is the only category that is both up significantly, and is probably weighted heavier towards the higher quintiles than the lower. Energy absolutely dominates, and things like apparel and shelter are up but far less severely. Although again this is nov 2021 looking back at nov 2020, when the pandemic was perhaps at its worst in terms of economic impact. The longer-term trend is interesting to understand too: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-chart-tracks-price-changes-us-goods-services/  From 2000 to 2022, some categories that luxuries fit into like big TVs, new cars, toys, are flat or down; stuff that the lowest quintile has to pay for like child care, housing, and medical care are up... and college tuition skyrocketed, which I think probably is a higher-income impact given the kids of the wealthy are the most likely to pay for ivy league sized college bills. Although student costs and loan debt hits the lower quintiles especially hard: quote:As usual, low income students are disproportionally impacted by rising tuition. Pell Grants now cover a much smaller portion of tuition than they used to, and the majority of states have cut funding to higher education in recent years. I'm actually not sure if any of this is relevant now, but it's worth diving into rather than taking "CPI" as a reasonable and complete summary of what inflation is doing to people whose wagers are or are not rising to keep up. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 17:47 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 17:41
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Bremen posted:Is that changing? I'm just googling but it looks like seasonally adjusted wage growth for the 3 months December 22-March 23 was 1.2%. It looks like CPI increase for those three months was... 1.1% Well, okay, so they're basically tied at this point, but at least inflation is no longer clearly outpacing wage growth. Long term real wage growth is pretty slow, though (eyeballing the below chart, <1% a year). I'm fairly skeptical that this time is different for some reason. 
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May 5, 2023 18:13
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LanceHunter posted:I feel like we need some new term to describe a kind of anti-stagflation. In the same way that term was coined to try and capture the seemingly-paradoxical economic state of a slow economy with high inflation, we need something to capture this state of the economy running super-hot in terms of full (or near-full) employment and rising wages that isn't getting knocked back by rising interest rates. The "radiator economy?" Maybe something like the-inevitable-consequences-of-a-deeply-dishonest-definition-of-unemployment? Pretending people who haven't been able to find a job for 12 months cease to exist is ridiculous. I remember a lot of my late teens and early adult hood being full of talking points about each administration shifting the definition of unemployment to make the numbers look better. Cyrano4747 posted:Part of the issue is also that consumer spending is very unevenly distributed. It's surprisingly hard to find good data broken out by income bracket, but here's a WaPo chart I found that shows at least the big trends: That's interesting. As someone in that middle group being pinched by inflation rising much faster than the wages of people I know that makes a lot more sense than most of the news I hear. We've been able to absorb the losses by decreasing discretionary spending so we're not hurting yet but it sure has been making folks agitated. Well, that and going down to a single car helped a lot. LLSix fucked around with this message at 18:23 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 18:18
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unemployment definitions haven't really shifted since the mid 90s. U-1 through U-6 are still what they are so I'm not sure what you're talking about, exactly. People who have been jobless for more than 12 months but have looked for a job in the last four weeks still count in all of U-1 through U-6. and even if you stop looking but would like a job you count as marginally attached, which is included in U-5 and U-6. edit: also even if for whatever reason you want to bitch about U-1 being inaccurate, even something like U-6 is at historic lows at 6.6%. KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 18:40 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 18:35
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LLSix posted:Maybe something like the-inevitable-consequences-of-a-deeply-dishonest-definition-of-unemployment? Pretending people who haven't been able to find a job for 12 months cease to exist is ridiculous. This topic came up in the thread before: Trying to hand-wave away the continued fall in unemployment as fake doesn't stand up to scrutiny when labor force participation is just 0.7% lower than it was immediately before the pandemic hit, and basically in-line with the rate for the last ten years.
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May 5, 2023 18:37
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LanceHunter posted:I feel like we need some new term to describe a kind of anti-stagflation. In the same way that term was coined to try and capture the seemingly-paradoxical economic state of a slow economy with high inflation, we need something to capture this state of the economy running super-hot in terms of full (or near-full) employment and rising wages that isn't getting knocked back by rising interest rates. The "radiator economy?" The "1% of the workforce unexpectedly died of covid and nobody wants to acknowledge that" effect?
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May 5, 2023 18:39
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Pretty bold statement https://archive.is/2023.05.05-16070...finance-1b6eb3e Office building price may drop up to 50% quote:PGIM expects property prices to drop in a range of 7.5%-50% in this cycle (see chart), with office properties likely facing the most downside risk. 
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May 5, 2023 19:20
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Leperflesh posted:Oh, for sure, and I think most of us agree that the inflation was and perhaps still is being driven by supply shortages, not (or not only) by demand, which is why rising rates is predicted to have less of an impact. But wage growth lagging price growth probably will, IMO, in that at some point there will be a new equilibrium between supply and demand that fixes prices in place. No? No, the primary driver is corporations raising prices to raise profits and blame supply chain issues, and now we’re seeing knock on effects of that, and other systemic factors like rising wage inequality hitting limits that change behavior on ways that move the economy outside “normal” behavior.
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May 5, 2023 19:34
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Hadlock posted:Pretty bold statement https://archive.is/2023.05.05-16070...finance-1b6eb3e lol look at that apartment line good lord
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May 5, 2023 19:55
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pseudanonymous posted:No, the primary driver is corporations raising prices to raise profits and blame supply chain issues, and now we’re seeing knock on effects of that, and other systemic factors like rising wage inequality hitting limits that change behavior on ways that move the economy outside “normal” behavior. Corporations have always tried to price their products as high as the market would allow, they never needed excuses. Normally if a company goes too high a competitor can swoop in and take their profit by lowering their margin but having a higher volume. That can't happen now because.... supply chain issues including labor shortages. Like, did you think before companies were keeping prices lower because they just didn't have a good excuse or something?
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May 5, 2023 20:41
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Lockback posted:Corporations have always tried to price their products as high as the market would allow, they never needed excuses. Normally if a company goes too high a competitor can swoop in and take their profit by lowering their margin but having a higher volume. That can't happen now because.... supply chain issues including labor shortages. That’s actually a theory that’s being argued by some economists: Roughly speaking, the fact that “everyone knows there’s inflation” means that a) companies are more confident that any prices hikes they impose will be matched by competitors, and b) consumers are less motivated to search for lower prices. The WSJ is reporting on it like it’s at least possible, this isn’t strictly some fringe zero hedge thing.
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May 5, 2023 21:09
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Expectations of inflation being a driver of inflation in and of themselves is not some emerging theory, I'm pretty sure it's been a part of macroeconomics 101 for decades. E.g. the below article from 2019 in the context of inflation being too low https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/ask-the-expert/2019/ate-20190528-rich
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May 5, 2023 21:15
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Lockback posted:Corporations have always tried to price their products as high as the market would allow, they never needed excuses. Normally if a company goes too high a competitor can swoop in and take their profit by lowering their margin but having a higher volume. That can't happen now because.... supply chain issues including labor shortages. The entire "greedflation" narrative took off among the Jacobin crowd for the same reason the election fraud narrative took off among the Fox News crowd. It reinforced strongly-held priors ("Trump couldn't lose an election!" / "Rising wages could never cause rising prices!") that had until recently had held basically true (Trump technically won in 2016 and wage increases above the far-below-equilibrium $7.25 an hour legitimately have negligible effects on prices) and upon which were a lot of the more extreme elements had based their wildest fantasies (after Trump won 2020 all the seal indictments Q talked about were going to be opened / the minimum wage should be $33 an hour).
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May 5, 2023 21:16
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LanceHunter posted:The entire "greedflation" narrative took off among the Jacobin crowd Because CEOs were openly admitting it during earnings calls is “the reason” and because those self same companies are then posting record profits.
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May 5, 2023 21:31
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raminasi posted:That’s actually a theory that’s being argued by some economists: Roughly speaking, the fact that “everyone knows there’s inflation” means that a) companies are more confident that any prices hikes they impose will be matched by competitors, and b) consumers are less motivated to search for lower prices. The WSJ is reporting on it like it’s at least possible, this isn’t strictly some fringe zero hedge thing. esquilax posted:Expectations of inflation being a driver of inflation in and of themselves is not some emerging theory, I'm pretty sure it's been a part of macroeconomics 101 for decades. There's a gap between it being a factor and it being "The Primary Driver"
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May 5, 2023 21:42
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God forbid people start expecting actual raises again, the "wage spiral" will be the death of us!
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May 5, 2023 21:50
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pseudanonymous posted:Because CEOs were openly admitting it during earnings calls is “the reason” and because those self same companies are then posting record profits. What CEOs are openly admitting is that they are able to raise prices due to scarcity and that their costs have not actually risen to match, so they're generating profits. This is not the same thing as CEOs suddenly realizing in 2020+ that they could raise prices and generate profits, like that that's a thing. No. It's that in an environment with a supply restriction not based on rising cost of supply provides a new equilibrium of supply & demand, e.g, a higher price that the market will bear, that the companies can sell into, and that generates more profit. Perhaps the most obvious and clearcut example is oil. Exxon's costs to extract oil did not go up, but the global price of oil went up as supply became restricted. Exxon sold just as much oil, at a higher price, with not particularly higher costs, and therefore loads of money in profits. This is not "causing inflation", it's participating in inflation caused by the loss of russia's oil on most of the world's market, plus the loss of a huge amount of shipping capacity during lockdowns, among other factors.
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May 5, 2023 21:52
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Also when inflation flirts with double digits for a year everything will hit new record highs. Wages are at a new record high too along with corporation profits. That's not unusual, usually these things go up and we had a year where lots of stuff shot up.
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May 5, 2023 21:54
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pseudanonymous posted:Because CEOs were openly admitting it during earnings calls is “the reason” and because those self same companies are then posting record profits. The point is that's no conspiracy on the part of the corporations, this isn't "fake" inflation caused by an illusion of supply shortages. Because companies raising prices because the market will pay them is how inflation has always worked. Or, to reuse an analogy I liked, blaming inflation on greed is like blaming a plane crash on gravity. Yeah, it's technically why the plane hit the ground, but gravity isn't any stronger today than it was yesterday. The question is what went wrong with the plane that resulted in gravity causing it to hit the ground.
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May 5, 2023 22:03
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Leperflesh posted:What CEOs are openly admitting is that they are able to raise prices due to scarcity and that their costs have not actually risen to match, so they're generating profits. Excellent description. Private corpos charging as much as they can for their product isn’t new. This is only not the case with monopolies which is… another topic
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May 6, 2023 04:58
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hey hadlock, what's your adjudication for linking graphics from twitter (yet not embedding tweet) instead of just screencappin' and uploading to imgur and then posting? because this graph is interesting, and makes economic sense:  other SLOOS raw data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM senior loan officer survey came out today and got some media attention. the job market is so strong right now, hard to see a recession in the next 3mo or so. but not a great path for loans!
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May 9, 2023 00:27
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pmchem posted:hey hadlock, what's your adjudication for linking graphics from twitter (yet not embedding tweet) instead of just screencappin' and uploading to imgur and then posting? I don't like it and I think it's lazy and I don't know what twitters policy on deep linking images is or will be next week. Of course imgur was threatening to turn off anonymous images the other day but I haven't been keeping up with that That said, I guess hot linking to Twitter images is fine, so long as the images are available for at least one week. The no tweet thing is specifically to prevent a trend of lazy posting, doom scrolling and "blood!" reactions. Who hosts the image isn't related to that goal so long as it's not embedded in a tweet
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May 9, 2023 06:22
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Recession? What recession https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-remove-last-boeing-777-desert-storage/ quote:Air New Zealand had a fleet of seven Boeing 777-300ERs, and when they were grounded, the airline put three into deep storage at Auckland Airport (AKL). With no sign of travel resuming, the other four went to Victorville Southern California Logistics Airport (VCV) in the Mojave Desert, This is the second "long range planes back from the bone yard" article I've read in as many weeks Pulling your last long range transpacific airplanes out of storage is a pretty big deal, you're betting on sustained growth, it costs about a million dollars and three months to get them ready for service according to the other article I read In other news American just opened up a Sacramento to Austin nonstop flight, which is... Ballsy. I don't think most people even know Sacramento has a commercial airport. Austin is a big tech hub but that's a weird choice to fly from Sacramento. Sac is about 2.25 hours from San Francisco depending on traffic
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May 9, 2023 07:12
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CPI due out Wednesday AM
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May 9, 2023 08:41
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Sacramento and Austin are both Southwest focus cities so a flight between them doesn’t seem very strange. It’s also a flight between the 11th largest and 35th largest cities in the US. I bet it will do fine.
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May 9, 2023 11:08
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also state capitals for two of the largest states. I’m more that surprised AA didn’t already have a direct flight
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May 9, 2023 13:31
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powerful bay area guy energy to that post tbh "people don't know that the capital of the 5th largest economy in the world and the 35th largest city in the united states has an airport" come on son
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May 9, 2023 14:57
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pmchem posted:also state capitals for two of the largest states. I’m more that surprised AA didn’t already have a direct flight The direct flight situation in Austin is very frustrating. Up until 1999 we only had a municipal airport and the vast majority of flights went to other Texas cities (mostly Houston and Dallas) to then connect out. Our current airport opened just two years before 9/11, and it had about the worst possible architecture for handling things afterwards. For example, every single shop/restaurant/cafe/etc was behind the security checkpoint, since they never imagined a world where people without tickets wouldn't be able to go through security to be able to wait for their arrivals. The airport has been trying its hardest to keep up with the insane amount of growth, but it's been a poo poo-show the entire time.
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May 9, 2023 15:59
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LanceHunter posted:. For example, every single shop/restaurant/cafe/etc was behind the security checkpoint, since they never imagined a world where people without tickets wouldn't be able to go through security to be able to wait for their arrivals. This sounds weird in a post 9/11 reality but yeah in Texas when you flew in to town, the whole extended family would drive to the airport and meet you at the gate We always flew into San Antonio because flying in and out of Texas was a non starter Austin Bergstrom airport is like 45 minutes from Austin and there's just absolutely nothing out there on that side of the city where it's located except a handful of strip malls, the rest of the city is on the other side of downtown/i-35. Ticket prices are usually double that of flying through San Antonio too. And if you have a connecting flight further east almost certainly you're flying through Houston, Dallas or Denver Apparently Austin is already working on replacing Austin Bergstrom
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May 9, 2023 16:50
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Commercial flights also pack the baggage compartment with paid freight including especially mail, and state capitals tend to handle a lot of extra mail. I bet that direct flight would be profitable even if only half the seats are full.
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May 9, 2023 16:59
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LanceHunter posted:The direct flight situation in Austin is very frustrating. Up until 1999 we only had a municipal airport and the vast majority of flights went to other Texas cities (mostly Houston and Dallas) to then connect out. Our current airport opened just two years before 9/11, and it had about the worst possible architecture for handling things afterwards. For example, every single shop/restaurant/cafe/etc was behind the security checkpoint, since they never imagined a world where people without tickets wouldn't be able to go through security to be able to wait for their arrivals. As long as we're doing weird airport chat, I flew out of Berlin Tegel in 2019 a few years before they finally closed it, and I'm still not totally convinced it wasn't one big fever dream. The airport is 100% from the jetset era when security checkpoints didn't even exist. They retrofitted this by having one big central hexagon that's entirely landside, which is also where all the shops and lounges are. Then there's literally individual isolated airside sections for every single gate. This means every single gate has its own security screening station and passport control. Except this was all built in the era before either of those, so the queues of 300 people waiting for security and passport control back up into long snaking lines inside the hexagon. If there's more than one flight leaving at nearby gates, their lines start overlapping and blocking the main travel hallway. Then once you're actually airside, it's one tiny cramped gate waiting room with a single toilet and vending machine, with everyone crammed inside like cattle because it's literally one of 20 small disconnected airside pocket zones. The whole thing felt like an airport designed by an insane person.
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May 9, 2023 18:12
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gently caress tegel so much
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May 9, 2023 22:51
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:gently caress tegel so much I always had great luck with it but the key is to only fly out at the absolute rear end crack of dawn. Going out when there are other people there is madness. It’s well located for a quick cab ride as an incoming flight though. Customs on the way in was always super painless and fast, at least with a US passport.
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May 9, 2023 23:41
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mrmcd posted:As long as we're doing weird airport chat, I flew out of Berlin Tegel in 2019 a few years before they finally closed it, and I'm still not totally convinced it wasn't one big fever dream. The airport is 100% from the jetset era when security checkpoints didn't even exist. They retrofitted this by having one big central hexagon that's entirely landside, which is also where all the shops and lounges are. Then there's literally individual isolated airside sections for every single gate. Reminds me of Kailua Lamour or however it's spelled There's an initial  security checkpoint when you enter the secure part of the airport, which wasn't manned when I walked past it, and then each gate had it's own luggage scanner + human walk through metal detector. I remember this because they were real dicks about the $9 black coffee I'd just bought before boarding the airplaneMalaysia Airlines Flight 370 makes a lot more sense in the context of flying out of the same airport
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May 10, 2023 05:26
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Inflation report is out...New York Times posted:What to know about the latest inflation report.
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May 10, 2023 14:22
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Also, some discussion on the sources of this inflation...New York Times posted:How the drivers of inflation have changed. Which is most interesting for this graph:
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May 10, 2023 14:31
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There is no real debate. After decades of consolidation companies had A) the ability to raise prices B) an excuse to raise prices You just can’t deregulate an economy into a few monopolies or duopolies and then be shocked, shocked, when prices go up. Pointing at wage increases by employers as a major cause of inflation is pure gaslighting. But as long as we are talking about wage inflation, we’re not talking about monopolies.
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May 10, 2023 14:48
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It's fine though inflation won't be a problem anymore when the US defaults next month.
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May 10, 2023 14:56
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street doc posted:There is no real debate. After decades of consolidation companies had Yes, the highly monopolistic, corporatized industry of *checks notes* day care centers are only raising prices because of corporate greed and not at all because of rising labor costs.
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The big table o' inflation is below. Eveyone's got a hot take on inflation numbers, but it appears to me that the primary driver of services inflation is increases in shelter costs (rent and owner equivalent rent). Transportation services has a higher %age increase, but a much lower weight.
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May 10, 2023 16:10
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