(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Ynglaur posted:You have the My point is it's kind of hard to find a window to push him out of when he's in a foreign hostile warzone with his own personal army
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May 10, 2023 14:31
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 19:45 |
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Just give Ukraine AGM-158s already. How is leveling the playing field against a near peer "escalation" ? Though I don't think they'd have a platform to launch them from the air without modifications?
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May 10, 2023 14:33
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PIZZA.BAT posted:My point is it's kind of hard to find a window to push him out of when he's in a foreign hostile warzone with his own personal army They've been shooting deserters and injured. Fragging a commander is just another reload. But more to the point, they can 'accidentally' not be too stringent on comms secrecy and have his position leaked. If he's in HIMARS range, well, another martyr for the pyre.
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May 10, 2023 14:34
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OAquinas posted:They've been shooting deserters and injured. Fragging a commander is just another reload. That may end up with the information on the timing of the strike "accidentally" leaked right back to him.
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May 10, 2023 14:42
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PIZZA.BAT posted:My point is it's kind of hard to find a window to push him out of when he's in a foreign hostile warzone with his own personal army It is not 1918, it is pretty hard to declare yourself a warlord in the heart of darkness when completely surrounded by working logistical network (and in TOS range) from one side and extremely angry enemy from the other. OAquinas posted:But more to the point, they can 'accidentally' not be too stringent on comms secrecy and have his position leaked. If he's in HIMARS range, well, another martyr for the pyre. Dmitry Rogozin got his literal rear end devastated by artillery round in Donetsk this way, very likely with assistance from Prigozhin who hates him. Every DNR-LNR field commander with ideas on personal brand that had an explisive accident 2014-2018 can also attest to that. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 14:47 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 14:44
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Libluini posted:
And how long did it take for Wagner and the Russians to take that? And how many men did they lose. Bakhmut is going to be told in the same tone as Stalingrad: an almost impossible battle that turned around for the defenders and the war.
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May 10, 2023 15:04
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Ynglaur posted:
It's not in the city proper, I think, but rather South of it (SW, even)
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May 10, 2023 15:08
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May 10, 2023 15:09
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OddObserver posted:It's not in the city proper, I think, but rather South of it (SW, even) Thanks for the clarification. That's an important distinction.
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May 10, 2023 15:22
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OAquinas posted:They've been shooting deserters and injured. Fragging a commander is just another reload.
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May 10, 2023 16:18
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spankmeister posted:The North Atlantic and Baltic and Black Sea Treaty Organization I would like to propose the Global Defense Initiative
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May 10, 2023 16:57
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OddObserver posted:It's not in the city proper, I think, but rather South of it (SW, even) Yes also it didnt seem that significant. I think its just everyone get *excited* because its the Ukraine taking some territory back.
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May 10, 2023 17:00
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Considering that hundreds (if not thousands) of russians died/got maimed to take it in the first place, swallowing up 8km² in one shot is just an absolute "gently caress you" to the morale of the mobiks. A little excitement is warranted, I think. We'll see how it plays out in the next day or so.
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May 10, 2023 17:18
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Pope Hilarius II posted:I would like to propose the Global Defense Initiative This gets my nod
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May 10, 2023 17:25
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:There is already AUKUS which Canada is making noises about joining so I could see a Pacific based defence alliance like NATO start to grow. I thought being in NATO preventing you from joining other alliances? No? Is this for real? Who said that?
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May 10, 2023 17:27
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Small White Dragon posted:I thought being in NATO preventing you from joining other alliances? No? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Mutual_Cooperation_and_Security_between_the_United_States_and_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_(United_States%E2%80%93South_Korea) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization (now defunct) Edit: Here's a current one that includes multiple NATO and non-NATO countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes Quixzlizx fucked around with this message at 17:40 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 17:34
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Chronojam posted:This gets my nod Perhaps we could consider it a brotherhood of sorts.
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May 10, 2023 17:54
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Ynglaur posted:Does anyone know if the Russian 72nd Brigade referenced in some of the tweets is the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade? According to Ukraine press statements it is. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-unit-says-russian-brigade-flees-bakhmut-outskirts-2023-05-10/ quote:It's official. Prigozhin's report about the flight of Russia's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians left behind is true.
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May 10, 2023 17:54
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SSX - Seven Seas compacX
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May 10, 2023 17:56
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So wait… they spent like 9 months and god knows how much blood and treasure to just retreat?
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May 10, 2023 18:04
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Djarum posted:So wait… they spent like 9 months and god knows how much blood and treasure to just retreat? Now now, that bit they lost "only" probably took them 2 months and a few hundred lives. Good example of why not having unified command "may" not be most militarily efficent.
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May 10, 2023 18:05
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Djarum posted:So wait… they spent like 9 months and god knows how much blood and treasure to just retreat? From 2-3 sq km. It's a dent in the southern Russian salient threatening to encircle Bakhmut. Good news but it changes nothing of the overall picture. It may have been a local unit that collapsed for reasons unique to that time and place or it may be indicative of the state of Russian forces generally.
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May 10, 2023 18:13
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Djarum posted:So wait… they spent like 9 months and god knows how much blood and treasure to just retreat? Well they only fought for Bakhmut to drain Ukraine's manpower through attrition, so says Prigozhin So because they don't need the city, they can retreat and conquer it again to inflict even more attrition on Ukraine. Rince and repeat
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May 10, 2023 18:13
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:There is already AUKUS which Canada is making noises about joining so I could see a Pacific based defence alliance like NATO start to grow. Aligning in AUCKUS (CAUKUS?) is the only way Canada will ever procure another submarine.
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May 10, 2023 18:13
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Nervous posted:Perhaps we could consider it a brotherhood of sorts.  Lum_ posted:According to Ukraine press statements it is. Thanks. This may be the first clear instance of a regular army unit outright routing, as opposed to withdrawing or retreating in relative good order. LNR/DNR forces seemed to have done so during the Kharkiv Offensive last year, but I can't think of any instances of company-sized formations doing so, nevermind Battalion Tactical Group or Brigades/Regiments.
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May 10, 2023 18:21
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steinrokkan posted:Well they only fought for Bakhmut to drain Ukraine's manpower through attrition, so says Prigozhin Yeah but as others have said if that was the stated goal they did poorly. In the current Russian military state the last thing they should be wanting to do is attrition at all. They don’t have the resources to replenish their stocks easily. It is an even worse idea when NATO is equipping Ukraine with systems that are exponential force multipliers and don’t have the same concerns over material as Russia. The more likely truth is that Bakhmut was supposed to be an easy win for Wagner. By the point it wasn’t they figured that if they pushed harder at a certain point they would break through and capture it. At a certain point they had invested too much into the battle that they couldn’t leave without being humiliated and questions about the loss of man and material. Now we have come to a point where they can’t justify further expenditures so Prigozhin is using an excuse to fall back to attempt to save face publicly.
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May 10, 2023 18:25
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Djarum posted:Yeah but as others have said if that was the stated goal they did poorly. In the current Russian military state the last thing they should be wanting to do is attrition at all  Realistically though the best the Russians can hope for is to stay put in the rubble of their conquest, conserve strength and hope that Ukraine is as stupid as them and will waste resources on direct counter attacks at Bakhmut. That can't be very good for morale of the troops there, to have achieved such a costly goal for no immediate benefit and no improvement of their situation in the future.
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May 10, 2023 18:30
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Some perspective may be in order: there is a non-trivial chance they will finish conquest of the city in a week or two.
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May 10, 2023 18:31
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive If you haven't been following Kofman's podcasts closely, this article is a detailed summary of what he's been saying the last few months. As usual, he's more cautious than some of the louder commentators, and points out the looming shortcomings in Western strategy.
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May 10, 2023 18:38
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Hannibal Rex posted:If you haven't been following Kofman's podcasts closely, this article is a detailed summary of what he's been saying the last few months. Which podcast? The only ones I’m following with regards to the war is War on The Rocks and In Moscows Shadows. Can always use another.
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May 10, 2023 18:43
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Ynglaur posted:
From what I can tell, Ukraine has just regained some territory south of Ivanivske. They lost about 4sq km of territory in the last week there according to liveuamap, with RU pushing around southwest from Bakhmut towards Chasiv Yar so this victory for Ukraine seems to just be undoing those gains. It's still good for Ukraine and an embarrasment for Russia but I don't see it as a turning point for the Bakhmut battle. The whining from Prig is interesting and we'll see if it comes true but I tend to not put much weight on the words of people claiming an imminent defeat or victory and try to look at things that have actually happened. Prigozhin and Girkin are both good at making a lot of histrionic noise but events rarely play out as catastrophically as they say they're about to.
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May 10, 2023 18:45
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OddObserver posted:Some perspective may be in order: there is a non-trivial chance they will finish conquest of the city in a week or two. not saying you're wrong since i haven't paid much attention to the block by block progress in the city, but the sense i've gotten from wider reports is that the russian effort has noticeably diminished in the last week or two. have they continued to make meaningful progress regardless? just glancing at the isw maps, seems like the lines have remained pretty stationary over the last week
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May 10, 2023 19:03
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:not saying you're wrong since i haven't paid much attention to the block by block progress in the city, but the sense i've gotten from wider reports is that the russian effort has noticeably diminished in the last week or two. have they continued to make meaningful progress regardless? just glancing at the isw maps, seems like the lines have remained pretty stationary over the last week Best part of this is that if the russian forces persevere, it's to Ukraine's benefit
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May 10, 2023 19:11
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I love it how the discourse has in a month changed from "why are Ukrainians still holding onto Bakhmut? Retreat you stupid  " to "yesss, counterattack in Bakhmut baby!  "
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May 10, 2023 19:20
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Nenonen posted:I love it how the discourse has in a month changed from "why are Ukrainians still holding onto Bakhmut? Retreat you stupid If that's what the discourse was I guess I luckily missed it, I mostly got grim preserverance vibes like 'probably going to eventually lose it but they're making the victory costly' that spontaneously shifted to 'are the russians even going to actually take the place they hurled all that cannon fodder at or is it really that bad for them'
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May 10, 2023 19:41
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buglord posted:Which podcast? The only ones I’m following with regards to the war is War on The Rocks and In Moscows Shadows. Can always use another. WotR is the main one, but he also has a members only one on their site. Geopolitics Decanted also has high quality guests on Ukraine, both Kofman and others. This one has Justin Bronk and Dara Massicot on Ukrainian air defense: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...3NzBmNDMz?ep=14 Olga Oliker is always insightful, usually focused on conflict management and diplomacy: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...xMmMzMjIz?ep=14 Jack Watling of RUSI comments infrequently and spread across different podcasts, but worth looking out for. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...5YzJlMjk5?ep=14
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May 10, 2023 19:42
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There's Battleground Ukraine with British military historians Patrick Bishop and Saul David.
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May 10, 2023 19:47
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OddObserver posted:Some perspective may be in order: there is a non-trivial chance they will finish conquest of the city in a week or two. If so i then petition that the term ''Pyrrhic Victory'' be changed to ''Bakhmut Victory''. 
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May 10, 2023 20:03
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Small White Dragon posted:Is this for real? Who said that? Saying "We'll greenlight Ukraine joining NATO if Russia approves" sounds like a slightly more polite way of saying "Sure, we'll greenlight Ukraine joining NATO... when pigs fly."
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May 10, 2023 20:23
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 19:45 |
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spankmeister posted:The North Atlantic and Baltic and Black Sea Treaty Organization Clearly it should be North (Atlantic, Baltic, Black Sea, Pacific) Treaty Organization. It's not like there's much going on in Southern Black Sea or Southern Pacific. Small White Dragon posted:I thought being in NATO preventing you from joining other alliances? No? If you join other alliances and end up in a war because of them, you can't call other NATO members for help. This means that small NATO members are very heavily incentivized not to join other alliances, but if the big swinging dick of worldwide military spending wants to have a few other engagements as a treat, there's really nothing stopping them.
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May 10, 2023 20:41
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