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SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1655691558874669061

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Rod Hoofhearted
Jun 18, 2000

I am a ghost





Yup, he sucks. And he was always an anti-abortion chud.

Dr. Lunchables
Dec 27, 2012

IRL DEBUFFED KOBOLD



Can’t wait to find out a bunch of weird poo poo about Jordan Love

Q_res
Oct 29, 2005

We're fucking built for this shit!

Dr. Lunchables posted:

Can’t wait to find out a bunch of weird poo poo about Jordan Love

Oh! Can we start a betting pool?

Rectal Placenta
Feb 25, 2011

Dr. Lunchables posted:

Can’t wait to find out a bunch of weird poo poo about Jordan Love

Probably doesn't even rotate his cut direction when he mows the lawn

Rod Hoofhearted
Jun 18, 2000

I am a ghost




Rectal Placenta posted:

Probably doesn't even rotate his cut direction when he mows the lawn

What?

Am I mowing my lawn wrong, I have no idea what your'e talking about.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro



Wow, these Minnesota Vikings QBs are incorrigible!

mercenarynuker
Sep 10, 2008

Dr. Lunchables posted:

Can’t wait to find out a bunch of weird poo poo about Jordan Love

The darkest secret in Green Bay: Jordan Love is a strict vegan

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

remember when he helped steal 77 million dollars from the state welfare fund so his stupid daughter could have a better volleyball court

Hot Diggity!
Apr 3, 2010

SKELITON_BRINGING_U_ON.GIF
The Ringer posted some stuff on each NFC team. Nothing revelatory but we're not fully in the offseason dregs so whatever.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/5/9/23715940/what-we-learned-nfc-2023-nfl-offseason

quote:

Chicago Bears
They’re all in on Justin Fields (for now).

The best-case scenario for the Bears in 2023 is relatively straightforward. Justin Fields, with an upgraded supporting cast, makes a leap in his third year. He leaves no doubt that he’s their quarterback of the future, and the Bears can use the capital they accumulated from trading out of the no. 1 spot in the 2023 draft to build around him, and they emerge as an up-and-coming team in a wide-open NFC.

Fields started 15 games last season. Extended over the course of an entire season, the Bears’ performance in those starts would’ve ranked 20th in offensive expected points added per play. That was with arguably the worst supporting cast in the league. Fields’s legs and big-play ability gave the Bears offense a baseline of competency. This offseason, they added wide receiver D.J. Moore in the trade with Carolina for the no. 1 pick and made upgrades on the offensive line, signing guard Nate Davis and using a first-round pick on tackle Darnell Wright. Meanwhile, the Bears will go from having the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule a year ago to having the fifth-easiest projected schedule in 2023. There’s a realistic scenario where they emerge as an exciting playoff team.

But there’s another direction this Bears season could go—one in which Fields can’t shake the negative plays. Fields was sacked on 14.7 percent of his pass plays last year—the highest rate for a quarterback in TruMedia’s database, which goes back to 2000. He was intercepted on 3.5 percent of his passes, which ranked 32nd out of 33 starters last season. His 16 fumbles were the most in the NFL. We saw that Fields is capable of the spectacular, but the question in 2023 is whether he can significantly reduce the mistakes.

Fields is under contract through at least 2024 (the Bears will have the fifth-year option for 2025), and the most likely scenario is him getting a multiyear tryout. But if things really go south, the Bears are set up well to make a quarterback move next offseason, given that they’ll have two first-round picks (their own and the Panthers’).

Bottom line: The Bears’ goal is to set Fields up for long-term success. But if that fails, they’ll still have options to pull off a plan B.


quote:

Detroit Lions
They misallocated valuable resources.

The Lions were one of the league’s fun stories in 2022. Even though they missed out on the playoffs, they looked like the fourth-best team in the NFC at the end of the regular season. This offseason was about building on that foundation, and on defense, it looks like they did that. The Lions made smart moves in free agency to upgrade their secondary, signing defensive backs Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to reasonable deals.

On offense, their biggest offseason victory was retaining coordinator Ben Johnson, who directed the Lions to the fifth-best offense last season. But from a personnel standpoint, the Lions made questionable decisions, signing running back David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million deal and spending the 12th overall pick on Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions clearly think that the running back swap (they let Jamaal Williams walk in free agency and traded D’Andre Swift) will make a significant difference, but how likely is that?

From 2020 to 2022, 42 running backs had at least 300 carries. Here’s where Montgomery, Swift, and Williams ranked in yards per carry and rushing success rate among that group:

New Lion David Montgomery Vs. the RBs He Replaced
Player YPC Rank Success Rate Rank
David Montgomery 35th 33rd
Jamaal Williams 34th 8th
D'Andre Swift 11th 36th

I have always liked Montgomery, but statistically, he has been one of the NFL’s least efficient backs. Maybe he will be a monster behind Detroit’s offensive line, but was that gamble worth $6 million per year? Couldn’t that money have been better spent elsewhere on the roster?

As for the Gibbs pick, the problem is threefold. One, the Lions showed that they were overconfident in their ability to evaluate talent. Gibbs was one of the biggest reaches in the first round, according to consensus board rankings. Two, we know that signing running backs to second contracts is almost always a bad idea, so the long-term upside of the pick is limited. And three, even if Gibbs is great, he’s not providing real surplus value. Because of the way rookie contracts are structured—player salaries are based on where they got picked—Gibbs is already the 18th-highest-paid running back in the NFL. The odds that he’ll outperform that ranking are low. When you hit on a wide receiver or an edge defender or a defensive tackle or a cornerback at 12, you get much greater value than you do with a running back.

I’m sure the Lions will tout the idea of Gibbs as a versatile offensive player and not just a running back, but that notion generally tends to be overrated. There were only two running backs in the NFL last year who ranked in the top 75 in receiving yards: Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.

The Lions are still positioned to be a very good team in 2023, but long term, it seems likely that they’ll look back at this offseason and wonder if they could’ve done more with the resources they had.

quote:

Green Bay Packers
They got a team-friendly deal at QB with Jordan Love.

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst did well in the Rodgers trade. He got a second-round pick in 2023 and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that turns into a first if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the snaps this season. Given that Rodgers will turn 40 in December and that there didn’t appear to be multiple suitors to drive up the price, that’s excellent compensation.

Gutekunst also got Rodgers’s replacement, 2020 first-round pick Love, to agree to a stunning one-year, $13.5 million extension. The Packers could have exercised the fifth-year option on Love, which would have been worth $20.27 million guaranteed in 2024, but they were apparently hesitant to do so. At that point, the decision should’ve been easy for Love: Play the year out and hit the open market next offseason. Instead, he locked himself into a low number for 2024.

“I’ve never seen anything like that,” said Fitzgerald. “You never hear of a player who bets against himself, and that’s a bet against yourself.”

If Love were to play reasonably well in 2023, he probably would’ve been in line for something in the neighborhood of the four-year, $160 million deal that Daniel Jones signed with the Giants. Even if Love performed like a below-average starter, some team would’ve likely taken a shot on him. Heinicke got a deal worth $7 million per year this offseason. Jarrett Stidham signed with the Broncos for $5 million per year. There’s pretty much always a market for quarterbacks.

“Now if he is successful, the Packers have this low salary baked in there that he has to honor,” said Fitzgerald. “The only way it works out for him that makes any sense at all is if he’s terrible. And I’ve never seen a player think that way.”

Maybe Love has a good reason that explains why he wanted the guaranteed money now in exchange for significantly limiting his earning upside after the season. But on the surface, it’s one of the most baffling decisions by a player this offseason. It’s also great news for the Packers—specifically if Love performs like an average starter in 2023.

quote:

Minnesota Vikings
There is no plan yet post–Kirk Cousins.

Last year, they were the flukiest 13-win team in NFL history. The Vikings ranked 27th in DVOA and went 9-0 in the regular season in games decided by seven points or fewer. The offense ranked 20th in efficiency—its lowest ranking since Cousins became the starter in 2018. Outside of releasing veteran receiver Adam Thielen and drafting USC wide receiver Jordan Addison in the first round, the Vikings made few changes to the offensive roster and are ready to run it back with largely the same group in 2023.

Defensively, the Vikings signed pass rusher Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency. They also replaced coordinator Ed Donatell with Brian Flores after last year’s disappointing performance.

The 2023 Vikings profile as a competitive but unspectacular team. Could they win the NFC North or sneak into the playoffs as a wild card? Sure. Do they have a high ceiling? Not really. The biggest issue facing Minnesota is its future at quarterback. Cousins turns 35 in August, and his deal voids after 2023. Ideally, the Vikings would have a young replacement lined up, but they had limited resources and did not make a serious QB move this offseason.

The Vikings are unlikely to be bad enough to draft high in 2024. They’re unlikely to be good enough to want to stick with Cousins. For now, the plan seems to be to win as many games as possible in 2023 and then figure the rest out. But Minnesota is in danger of staying stuck in the NFL’s middle class.

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Rod Hoofhearted posted:

What?

Am I mowing my lawn wrong, I have no idea what your'e talking about.

You’re supposed to alternate the pattern you cut every time you mow

First mow of the season: north/south
Second: east/west
3rd: northwest/southeast
4th: northeast/southwest
5th: north/south

This way you don’t wear ruts in

Danny LaFever
Dec 29, 2008


Grimey Drawer
I'm not really with the analysis that lions moves at RB were lateral at best. I know the Lions don't think so.

Montgomery is a better back than Williams. He just is. The tackle breaking ability might see him have a career season.

Gibbs is better than Swift, but its close. The issue with Swift is that he was always hurt, even when he was in the lineup they had to limit his touches. They needed more from him then he could give. Eagles are good fit for him.

Lions film has plenty of examples of blocking in place 5 yards out and the RBs get 7, or Swift won't follow the run design and bounces outside for a small gain. The lions could and should have had bigger runs and that's what they're betting on here. A terrifying run game that setups play action for Goff.

Gibbs is going to get a lot of touches. The success of the pick is on whether he holds up better than Swift did.

MJeff
Jun 2, 2011

THE LIAR
I do appreciate that during the Bears part, it acknowledges that they had the worst supporting cast in the league and then turns around and calls Montgomery one of the least efficient backs in the league. Like gee, I wonder if there's a connection.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


FAT32 SHAMER posted:

You’re supposed to alternate the pattern you cut every time you mow

First mow of the season: north/south
Second: east/west
3rd: northwest/southeast
4th: northeast/southwest
5th: north/south

This way you don’t wear ruts in

How heavy is your lawnmower that it might be wearing a rut in the ground?

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



forkboy84 posted:

How heavy is your lawnmower that it might be wearing a rut in the ground?

It’s not about the weight, but about the frequency of which the grass is rolled over, eventually forming paths

But it’s just a push mower and at this point I do it out of habit :shrug:

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

MJeff posted:

I do appreciate that during the Bears part, it acknowledges that they had the worst supporting cast in the league and then turns around and calls Montgomery one of the least efficient backs in the league. Like gee, I wonder if there's a connection.

Herbert was better than him(at running) with the same cast.

Bumhead
Sep 26, 2022

The national conversation around the Lions RB situation just feels like it’s missing some nuance.

On paper I guess it’s easy to look at Williams’ productivity last year and Swift’s skill set and question if the unit is much better for the resources thrown at it. But that’s ignoring that Williams got the goal line chances he did because the trust clearly wasn’t there for Swift to stay healthy handling those situations, even before he got injured later anyway.

That’s not to dismiss Williams or be lovely about it. You’ve still gotta convert and he did a great job. But Williams’ productivity and Swift’s health/trust levels are directly related.

If Montgomery is anywhere near the same ballpark of what Williams offers you and Gibbs is healthy, then it’s a straight upgrade.

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

Dexo posted:

Herbert was better than him(at running) with the same cast.

And I don't even think Herbert is that good.

Like I enjoyed watching Montgomery over the years but I don't really see D'onta Foreman as that much of a downgrade from him. Montgomery seemed better because of just how atrocious the Bears skill players were in comparison.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Dexo posted:

Herbert was better than him(at running) with the same cast.

I'm not sure this is true. Herbert would pop a big play a couple of times and then get stuffed every other play. He sucked at yards after contact.

Montgomery is boring, but he was consistent. Having a bunch of 3.5 per carry is better overall for your offense than a big play splattered amongst a bunch of stuffs. There's a reason Montgomery was on the field for over 60% of the Bears snaps despite Herbert being a better scheme fit and it wasn't just blocking.


Bumhead posted:

The national conversation around the Lions RB situation just feels like it’s missing some nuance.

On paper I guess it’s easy to look at Williams’ productivity last year and Swift’s skill set and question if the unit is much better for the resources thrown at it. But that’s ignoring that Williams got the goal line chances he did because the trust clearly wasn’t there for Swift to stay healthy handling those situations, even before he got injured later anyway.

That’s not to dismiss Williams or be lovely about it. You’ve still gotta convert and he did a great job. But Williams’ productivity and Swift’s health/trust levels are directly related.

If Montgomery is anywhere near the same ballpark of what Williams offers you and Gibbs is healthy, then it’s a straight upgrade.

The nuance it is missing is that sometimes football nerds take analytics too far. The argument the article made about Gibbs focuses on salary surplus and says he is unlikely to outperform being the 18th best running back in the NFL over his career, while completely ignoring the fact that the hit rate for first round running backs being top ten consistently over their rookie contracts is somewhere between 75% and 80%.

And even if that wasn't the case, salary surplus isn't that big an issue when all your premium players are on a rookie contract. People love to argue that you can just find a running back, but there are a lot of loving average running backs in the NFL. The goal shouldn't be to field average players, it should be to create positional advantages that help you win loving football games!

I love analytics as much as the next guy, but football is not baseball. Context and scheme matter.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp
One of the Lions podcasts I listen to (I think it was One of These Years) also made the point that arguing the Lions should have taken, say, a WR or EDGE with their 1st round picks doesn't really make sense when you look at their roster — the Lions already have a ton of good-to-decent players in those positions, and adding another player to those positions isn't going to have any immediate impact to the team's ability to win football games. Meanwhile, even if their positions are less valuable on paper, Gibbs and Campbell are substantial upgrades to their positions and will be contributing from day 1.

To put it bluntly: Holmes spent the last two drafts picking for the future, but that can only get a team so far — now that we're in the position where this team has the talent to win some goddamn football games, Holmes wants to maximize our ability to do that, and nitpicking that running backs are never worth a second contract is hilariously missing the point.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Acebuckeye13 posted:

One of the Lions podcasts I listen to (I think it was One of These Years) also made the point that arguing the Lions should have taken, say, a WR or EDGE with their 1st round picks doesn't really make sense when you look at their roster — the Lions already have a ton of good-to-decent players in those positions, and adding another player to those positions isn't going to have any immediate impact to the team's ability to win football games. Meanwhile, even if their positions are less valuable on paper, Gibbs and Campbell are substantial upgrades to their positions and will be contributing from day 1.

To put it bluntly: Holmes spent the last two drafts picking for the future, but that can only get a team so far — now that we're in the position where this team has the talent to win some goddamn football games, Holmes wants to maximize our ability to do that, and nitpicking that running backs are never worth a second contract is hilariously missing the point.

If running backs are never worth a second contract then getting an extra year on the first one seems like good value especially if he's significantly better than the guys you would be getting on the shorter ones

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



IcePhoenix posted:

If running backs are never worth a second contract then getting an extra year on the first one seems like good value especially if he's significantly better than the guys you would be getting on the shorter ones

But but but the future contracts your missing out on!

most guys don't get second contracts unless you hit on them

Timby
Dec 23, 2006

Your mother!

MJeff posted:

I do appreciate that during the Bears part, it acknowledges that they had the worst supporting cast in the league and then turns around and calls Montgomery one of the least efficient backs in the league. Like gee, I wonder if there's a connection.

Montgomery was fine, but nothing more than that. He's a bruiser running back, not a speedster, and they don't age well.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp

Sataere posted:

But but but the future contracts your missing out on!

most guys don't get second contracts unless you hit on them

From the year 2000 to 2020, the Lions picked 24 players in the first round. Of those, six signed contract extensions: Jeff Backus, Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Taylor Decker, and Frank Ragnow. Since the 2010 CBA, the Lions also exercised the 5th year option on Nick Fairley, Ziggy Ansah (Who also played an additional year on the franchise tag), and Eric Ebron (Though he was cut before actually playing out his 5th year).

This is really more of an indictment of the horrible drafting and contract management that took place during the Millen years (And slightly less horrible though still pretty bad in retrospect Mayhew/Quinn years), but the point still stands: Gibbs might not get a second contract, but neither did Jarrad Davis, Jeff Okudah, or TJ Hockenson, and all those dudes were praised by draft analysts as surefire hits. And if Gibbs helps us get a playoff win (Or, god forbid, an actual championship), then he'll have contributed a hell of a lot more than those duds.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova

Sataere posted:

I'm not sure this is true. Herbert would pop a big play a couple of times and then get stuffed every other play. He sucked at yards after contact.

Montgomery is boring, but he was consistent. Having a bunch of 3.5 per carry is better overall for your offense than a big play splattered amongst a bunch of stuffs. There's a reason Montgomery was on the field for over 60% of the Bears snaps despite Herbert being a better scheme fit and it wasn't just blocking.

No, it was just blocking (and receiving). You don't outrush someone 5.7 ypc to 4.0 ypc over the course of 130+ rush attempts just on the basis of a few big plays

Bumhead
Sep 26, 2022

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Meanwhile, even if their positions are less valuable on paper, Gibbs and Campbell are substantial upgrades to their positions and will be contributing from day 1.

Campbell in particular is such an easy to pick to understand for anyone who actually watched the Lions last year. I mean they were laughably bad at stopping backs or mobile QB's once they reached the second level. We don't beat the Bears this year with the improvements they've made elsewhere if Fields has the license to gouge us like he did last year. Someone along Campbell's athletic profile who could have helped contain that, even just a bit more, might have been worth an extra win or 2.

MJeff
Jun 2, 2011

THE LIAR
Lions get no trip to Deutschland. :(

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



xbilkis posted:

No, it was just blocking (and receiving). You don't outrush someone 5.7 ypc to 4.0 ypc over the course of 130+ rush attempts just on the basis of a few big plays

I don't know where to find a rushing win rate stat, and don't really have the time to look it up, but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. Herbert is one of the most inefficient runners I've seen. I'll just agree to disagree.

ZombieCrew
Apr 1, 2019

MJeff posted:

Lions get no trip to Deutschland. :(

Kinda weird that there is just a single NFC team of the ten set to play overseas.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


It'll be nice that he's New York's headache for a couple seasons now.

https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/1656302518518022147

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I absolutely believe that is true, but also those sources are clearly from the Packers and I don't put it past them to be only providing some of the story.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
I mean remember Rodgers seems to agree that he didn’t talk to them but he blamed it on lovely cell phone reception

I don’t know why he even bothered with that

Comfortador
Jul 31, 2003

Just give me all the 3ggs_n_b4con you have.

Wait...wait.

I worry what you just heard was...
"Give me a lot of b4con_n_3ggs."

What I said was...
"Give me all the 3ggs_n_b4con you have"

...Do you understand?

CharlestheHammer posted:

I mean remember Rodgers seems to agree that he didn’t talk to them but he blamed it on lovely cell phone reception

I don’t know why he even bothered with that

He had his cell phone immunized so it's no longer an issue, no need to worry about the past.

Kevlar v2.0
Dec 25, 2003

=^•⩊•^=

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

You’re supposed to alternate the pattern you cut every time you mow

First mow of the season: north/south
Second: east/west
3rd: northwest/southeast
4th: northeast/southwest
5th: north/south

This way you don’t wear ruts in

What if my lawn is only 100 square feet

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova

Sataere posted:

I don't know where to find a rushing win rate stat, and don't really have the time to look it up, but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. Herbert is one of the most inefficient runners I've seen. I'll just agree to disagree.

Football Outsiders has Herbert a hair ahead of Montgomery in running success rate for 2022 (34th overall vs. 39th). It is true that Herbert was way more of a home run hitter (#3 in DVOA vs #22 for Monty) but Montgomery wasn’t really a model of consistency that made up for his lack of explosiveness

ZombieCrew
Apr 1, 2019

Kevlar v2.0 posted:

What if my lawn is only 100 square feet

Use a weed whacker.

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Buy a scythe

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.
Salt it so you never have to mow again.

Radia
Jul 14, 2021

And someday, together.. We'll shine.
i want a scythe

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Gonz
Dec 22, 2009

"Jesus, did I say that? Or just think it? Was I talking? Did they hear me?"
https://twitter.com/billsperos/status/1656382570811084802?s=46&t=GxZoSKgPzb_-zyUnvLFKvg

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