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fatherboxx)
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Let's be honest here, invading Russia proper could only risk escalation (in the sense of "Putin now has a sufficiently solid reasons to start drafting young men in Moscow and Saint Petersburg") for very little gain, since Ukraine (a) doesn't actually want to hold parts of Russia, and (b) can't really occupy parts of Russia while also liberating places in Ukraine that need liberating, and (c) doesn't want to lose Western support that would probably become somewhat tenuous once useful idiots start pointing at RT maps and going "I thought we were the good guys?? Maybe Ukrainians getting genocided isn't so bad after all?? both sides!!1". Much better to focus on recovering places they actually want without opening that can of worms.
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May 11, 2023 21:32
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 00:31 |
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OddObserver posted:How did World War II end again? There are plenty of practical problems with operating in Russian territory, yes, but saying that the defender should constrain themselves from acting in attackers territory is absurd. Okay, Ukraine invades Russian territory!!! Now what?
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May 11, 2023 21:39
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Popete posted:Not really, this is a defensive war and NATOs help is contingent on it staying that way. They do not want to be seen as aiding Ukraine invading Russian territory and feeding into the narrative that this is somehow all instigated by NATO aggression in the first place as Russia has framed it. It would probably be enough for China and other countries who have sat on the sidelines to start directly sending arms to Russia. However, ATM Russia doesn't seem to be attacking across the border (well, apart from the initial invasion). If that changes it'll probably be casus belli enough for NATO to ignore UAF going into Russia to stop them.
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May 11, 2023 21:39
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Tehdas posted:However, ATM Russia doesn't seem to be attacking across the border (well, apart from the initial invasion). If that changes it'll probably be casus belli enough for NATO to ignore UAF going into Russia to stop them. Ugh, that would be news to the City of Kharkiv.
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May 11, 2023 21:40
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quote:Russia denies reports its military operation defense lines were breached in some areas https://tass.com/defense/1616311 Everything is going according to plan.
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May 11, 2023 21:41
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OddObserver posted:How did World War II end again? There are plenty of practical problems with operating in Russian territory, yes, but saying that the defender should constrain themselves from acting in attackers territory is absurd. I would be amused if Ukraine invaded Russia, but only as a means of bypassing Russian defenses in Luhansk. "Sorry, we'll only be a minute. Just passing through."
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May 11, 2023 21:41
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Deteriorata posted:I would be amused if Ukraine invaded Russia, but only as a means of bypassing Russian defenses in Luhansk. It's... not impossible, there's definitely a lot of rail hubs down towards Donetsk that might be easier to cut off in Russia where they don't actually expect an attack versus in Donetsk which has been an active warzone since 2014. That would be a truly historic move though. And I mean... The Republican wing of the US is already a completely lost cause anyways, so maybe Zelenskyy doesn't think it matters giving them a real reason to oppose the war when they are already itching to pull the plug. (EDIT: yes a lot of their reps support Ukraine, but Trump doesn't, so if he comes back in 2024 they will tow the line) But it seems most likely they'll just hug the Ukrainian border, use missiles to strike the hubs in Russia and troops to take back the lines in Ukraine.
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May 11, 2023 21:49
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Orthanc6 posted:
US and UK both forbid use of their missiles on territory of Russia, and there isn't that much domestic stuff.
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May 11, 2023 21:52
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Also, Russia has nuclear weapons. While I doubt Russia is nuking Kyiv over Belgorod, I wouldn't want to test it, because from there we get to salami slicing tactics. "Threatening the mainland territorial integrity of a nuclear power" is a box no nuclear power wants opened.
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May 11, 2023 21:57
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OddObserver posted:How did World War II end again? Hitler blowing his brains out, Germany divided, and Japan getting nuked twice and surrendering before a peace treaty. And of course the Soviet block forming, and all that other stuff with the "little powers". Could you please clarify what you mean by this allegory? Is Putin's Russia Germany in this example? Japan?
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May 11, 2023 22:01
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Rappaport posted:Hitler blowing his brains out, Germany divided, and Japan getting nuked twice and surrendering before a peace treaty. And of course the Soviet block forming, and all that other stuff with the "little powers". Could you please clarify what you mean by this allegory? Is Putin's Russia Germany in this example? Japan? The discussion was on defending sides in the war entering the attacker's territory. Certainly, the Allies did that to Germany and other European Axis members. That did not make France and UK non-defenders (USSR was a bit more complicated, but was still 199% morally justified in taking Berlin).
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May 11, 2023 22:05
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OddObserver posted:The discussion was on defending sides in the war entering the attacker's territory. Certainly, the Allies did that to Germany and other European Axis members. That did not make France and UK non-defenders (USSR was a bit more complicated, but was still 199% morally justified in taking Berlin). I'm not sure it's useful to engage in a "who was morally justified" tit-for-tat about WW2. However, we historically know that Hitler did want Germany to conquer all of Europe and at least some of the Soviet sphere, so he was an existential crisis. If we want to argue Putin is now one too, which he may be!, it's still not a 1-to-1 comparison, especially since Heisenberg couldn't figure out neutron random walk distances properly. In today's world, Ukraine would lose a lot of Western sympathy for invading Russian territory as opposed to defending and reclaiming their own, and this seems like a folly in this situation. Whether or not the flag-pole incident was a false flag incident is irrelevant compared to Ukraine trying to take over Russian territory. Just think of the local people there, managing them would be a nightmare, and every incident would portrayed as a war crime. It would be an awful mess.
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May 11, 2023 22:13
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OddObserver posted:The discussion was on defending sides in the war entering the attacker's territory. Certainly, the Allies did that to Germany and other European Axis members. That did not make France and UK non-defenders (USSR was a bit more complicated, but was still 199% morally justified in taking Berlin). Yes and how will this help Ukraine?
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May 11, 2023 22:14
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Rappaport posted:Hitler blowing his brains out, Germany divided, and Japan getting nuked twice and surrendering before a peace treaty. And of course the Soviet block forming, and all that other stuff with the "little powers". Could you please clarify what you mean by this allegory? Is Putin's Russia Germany in this example? Japan? Yeah, basically marching on Belgorad should be kept on the table, but only as a last resort if Putin goes Maximum Hitler after the Russian military is fully shattered.
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May 11, 2023 22:18
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OddObserver posted:The discussion was on defending sides in the war entering the attacker's territory. Certainly, the Allies did that to Germany and other European Axis members. That did not make France and UK non-defenders (USSR was a bit more complicated, but was still 199% morally justified in taking Berlin). Yea which is why Vietnam famously invaded the US to win the war, same with Afghanistan and their various wars. Turns out different wars have different details!
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May 11, 2023 22:19
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Nenonen posted:Yes and how will this help Ukraine? Potentially: severely suppressing the Russian supply lines to Donbass, limiting their ability to bomb what at least used to be Ukraine's second largest city, and forcing Russia to redirect forces from heavily fortified areas in Southern Ukraine. Rappaport posted:
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May 11, 2023 22:20
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I'm sure that Ukrainian conscripts will gladly join a folly and die on foreign land when their mission was to liberate their motherland. I'm also sure that Ukrainian laws allow ordering them to do that.
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May 11, 2023 22:24
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OddObserver posted:And what I am saying is that those Westerners are being immoral by imposing limitations on a victim that's already started at a huge disadvantage. I hate to break this to you, but morality has usually had fairly little sway in geo-politics. Ukraine needs all the help it can get, and as has been discussed in this thread a-plenty, the popular opinion, if you pardon the expression, in a lot of European states is already shaky on this subject. Obviously places like Finland are committed, but there's some historical... Differences between how we view Russia and how, say, France views Russia. I don't play a lot of map-painting Paradox games so I can't really comment on the tactical plusses and minuses, but I am certain it would be a propaganda defeat for Ukraine to be seen (note that being seen is different than what could actually happen, because media sucks) as an aggressor rather than as a proud defender of their own rights and lands. (If you like, there's a... Difference between how the Finnish Winter War is seen, and how the Continuation War is seen, even if Finland didn't actually invade "new" Soviet territories.)
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May 11, 2023 22:29
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Okay you all had fun but I am going to invoke the Spirit of Cinci and say that the grand invasion of loving Belgorod is Clancychat at its worst until there is definite proof it is happening so please stop
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May 11, 2023 22:42
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If true it can lead to the encirclement of w/e the russians have left in Bahmut. It was risky for the russians to concentrate so many forces in a single point. Wonder if the 72nd f-ing off yesterday it was just MOD analysing the situation better. UA Armor moving towards Belgorod can be just insurance against a surprise attack from that direction. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1656737884223700992
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May 11, 2023 22:58
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Zelensky says the counteroffensive is on hold for the moment: https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1656584063933730817?s=46&t=xh4hN1hNNwF9_Cq439R6TA
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May 11, 2023 23:07
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I haven't seen any evidence of Bradleys or Challengers or anything of that sort. It seems Russia is getting smashed by local counter attacks and recon more than the actual counter offensive.
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May 11, 2023 23:11
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Twitter banned @Bellingcat from search https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1656757080127074305?s=20 I just tried and indeed if you are not already subscribed it cant't be found
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May 11, 2023 23:18
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Sekenr posted:Twitter banned @Bellingcat from search For the crime of claiming that the guy with swastika and SS bolts tatoos, and a smiley with hitler moustache as a YouTube avatar is probably a nazi.
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May 11, 2023 23:22
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Orthanc6 posted:(EDIT: yes a lot of their reps support Ukraine, but Trump doesn't, so if he comes back in 2024 they will tow the line) Trump winning the general election is less likely than Ukraine invading Moscow, so his ideological orthodoxy would be limited to the period of nomination to election day at best.
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May 12, 2023 00:16
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Between the Russian MoD denying that anything bad happened around Bakhmut and Zelensky saying that the counter-offensive is on hold, I am now 100% convinced that this has already kicked off in the last couple days.
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May 12, 2023 00:58
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Popete posted:I don't think Ukraine is going to take a step into Russian territory, it would be a huge line to cross as far as NATO is concerned. Cross-border raids of supply sites and logistics centers wouldn't be at all surprising. That would probably be the extent of it. There is no red line for crossing the border for that sort of thing. There's basically no chance Ukraine would try to hold Russian territory, though.
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May 12, 2023 02:42
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Sekenr posted:Twitter banned @Bellingcat from search as an American I can find the profile, unless you mean the indexing of posts or they lifted it?
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May 12, 2023 03:37
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I highly doubt Ukraine has any operational plan which results in assaulting a city of 1.5M people, but it's a major logistics hub. Depending in where specifically supplies are stored, headquarters located, etc. I could see an offensive sweeping in a left hook to destroy or displace such assets. It would be extremely risky for all sorts of reasons, of course, even neglecting Clancychat.
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May 12, 2023 03:43
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notwithoutmyanus posted:as an American I can find the profile, unless you mean the indexing of posts or they lifted it? Looks like the text from the @bellingcat account is not showing up in search results, try searching for a string of text speciifcally from that account and it won't appear https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1656622945777733632  
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May 12, 2023 03:56
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https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1656768748823379971 A good map to help visualize the progress in Bakhmut - the full thread has an embedded video so  just in case.
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May 12, 2023 04:24
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notwithoutmyanus posted:as an American I can find the profile, unless you mean the indexing of posts or they lifted it? it's not showing up for me.
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May 12, 2023 04:47
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Bashez posted:I haven't seen any evidence of Bradleys or Challengers or anything of that sort. It seems Russia is getting smashed by local counter attacks and recon more than the actual counter offensive. At least one Bradley was used in the southern flank Bakhmut counterattack:  I made the screenshot from this video which discusses the counterattack and thus combat footage, hence
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May 12, 2023 06:54
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spankmeister posted:At least one Bradley was used in the southern flank Bakhmut counterattack: I think most people agreed it was a YPR-765 but I don't know poo poo.
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May 12, 2023 07:30
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Bashez posted:I think most people agreed it was a YPR-765 but I don't know poo poo. Perhaps it is, it's pretty blurry, and I'm no expert either.
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May 12, 2023 08:00
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Honestly, IFVs are all just boxes on wheels to me.
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May 12, 2023 08:11
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Tafferling posted:Honestly, IFVs are all just boxes on 
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May 12, 2023 08:20
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The Bradleys and Challengers are already messing with the Russians by not appearing on the battlefield. Any attack without them will be seen as a minor effort which could not possibly a threat.
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May 12, 2023 08:23
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Because the limited number of Western MBTs and IFVs, if I was Ukraine I would use them in a Fleet in Being (not sure what this would be called for land force...) sort of strategy until it was absolutely neccessary or could change something in a strategic or operational manner. We should assume the Russians still have decent intel and are at least tracking some of the these vehicles, especially if being used or grouped in any large numbers. Therefore simply maneuver them where you want the Russias to think you are going to attack. Russia then has to make some tough decisions on positioning their own forces.
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May 12, 2023 08:45
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 00:31 |
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Ynglaur posted:I highly doubt Ukraine has any operational plan which results in assaulting a city of 1.5M people, but it's a major logistics hub. Depending in where specifically supplies are stored, headquarters located, etc. I could see an offensive sweeping in a left hook to destroy or displace such assets. It would be extremely risky for all sorts of reasons, of course, even neglecting Clancychat. Not that it really matters for this point, but 1.5 million is the population of the entire Oblast, not just the city.
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May 12, 2023 09:05
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