(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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fatherboxx posted:Could it be a covert unit with Iglas or Stingers that infiltrated over the border? Still, 2 helicopters and 1 plane is kinda crazy for that alone I wondered the same thing as soon as a fixed wing aircraft got added.
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May 13, 2023 14:47
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Vaginaface posted:How do the quantity and quality of Ukraine's various military equipment compare to other NATO countries at this point? Quantity wise for tanks and AFV: a lot lower than Turkey, similar to Greece, more than every one else. Quality wise behind every one else in NATO (except for the newest most modern stuff just delivered). For artillery it seems Ukraine is ahead in quantity than everyone except the US and by now has a lot of highest quality stuff, but also still has lots of lower quality stuff. For aircraft Ukraine is behind in quantity in comparison to all bigger NATO countries and behind in quality for all of NATO.
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May 13, 2023 14:52
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1657348563020443648 Switzerland finally pulling its head out of its rear end, apparently.
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May 13, 2023 15:21
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That'll be huge for alleviating the ammunition crunch, so that's great news! Just another ulcer in the making for the russian MOD. Though after the last six months I don't know how much actual stomach lining they have left.
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May 13, 2023 16:10
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DTurtle posted:For artillery it seems Ukraine is ahead in quantity than everyone except the US and by now has a lot of highest quality stuff, but also still has lots of lower quality stuff. My username obliges me to differ! First I am not quite sure about the reliability of the cited numbers. Some of the numbers seem bloated, as if everything from mortars up was included. Another source gives Ukraine about 1500 howitzers including pre-war stock and aid from allies. This puts Ukraine at around twice the artillery tubes of Finland. But: most of this is old Soviet 122mm and 152mn tubes, which are not just dated but more importantly it's difficult to get enough ammunition for them. And in comparison to the number of brigades that the number has to support and how long the front line is that they must cover, it seems that Finnish artillery is stronger. Maybe not in raw numbers, but in ability to fulfill its mission.
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May 13, 2023 17:54
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OAquinas posted:That'll be huge for alleviating the ammunition crunch, so that's great news! Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines?
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May 13, 2023 17:55
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Owling Howl posted:Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines? yes actually
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May 13, 2023 18:02
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Owling Howl posted:Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines? Swiss arms industry is a key player in certain weapons systems and their ammo. Like a lot of the stuff that Germany uses has Oerlikon cannons. This means that the donated Gepards won't be running out of ammo but I don't think it will dramatically change the artillery ammo situation? I haven't read the article yet.
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May 13, 2023 18:02
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Owling Howl posted:Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines? Other countries use Swiss ammunition, and they were also blocking re-export from those countries' stocks.
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May 13, 2023 18:03
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Switzerland has a highly educated workforce with high labour costs. A lot of Swiss industry is therefore producing the kind of fancy hardware that has a high enough price tag to still be profitable. Consequently Swiss stuff is in a lot of European armies.
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May 13, 2023 18:18
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1657341011763380224 So that's what air defense doing
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May 13, 2023 18:26
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Antigravitas posted:Switzerland has a highly educated workforce with high labour costs. A lot of Swiss industry is therefore producing the kind of fancy hardware that has a high enough price tag to still be profitable. Consequently Swiss stuff is in a lot of European armies. In addition to Swiss ammunition stocks now being released for re-export, the new ammunition line Germany was building is slated to come online in June. Together with giving even more Gepards from Germany to Ukraine, this will make the future for Russian forces extra spicy: Reportedly, Ukrainian troops used Gepards as spearheads in their Kharkiv-offensive, and it often scared Russian pilots to rather turn around and break off attack runs, rather than risking getting some nasty holes punched into their planes. It's, I think, easy for non-military goons to forget that most of a modern airframe's defenses are for defending against smart ammo like missiles. And you can't use chaff, ECM or other anti-missile defenses on a dumb piece of dead metal on a ballistic collision course. The only thing "defeating" ballistic ammo is turning your plane back around, which kind of defeats the purpose of CAS.
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May 13, 2023 19:48
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Libluini posted:It's, I think, easy for non-military goons to forget that most of a modern airframe's defenses are for defending against smart ammo like missiles. And you can't use chaff, ECM or other anti-missile defenses on a dumb piece of dead metal on a ballistic collision course. The only thing "defeating" ballistic ammo is turning your plane back around, which kind of defeats the purpose of CAS. Well ECM is still valuable since the good stuff is still electronically sighted/controlled but you are correct. Anti-Aircraft guns are making a comeback due to CAS becoming more of a importance in modern warfare in which you want something that can loiter in a airspace and lay continued fire on a position which means slower and often lower things in the air. You couple that with how valuable drones have become and you need a good counter. The USAF’s plan on using the F-35 as a fast mover for CAS like they have used the F-16 and the Navy/Marines have used the F-18 has been proven to be a bad plan. They need a successor to the A-10 but they both don’t want the CAS role, yet don’t want to give it to the Army along with they don’t want “slow” planes. The OV-10 modified and used for a bit a few years ago with tremendous success but the USAF just doesn’t want it or the job. Personally if I were a military I’d be investing in a drone based CAS airframe. I think something akin to the OV-10 design with 40mm cannon in the back and a 30mm in the front. Give it the ability to fire the same missiles and bombs as the A-10. Basically the best of an A-10 and a AC-130. Much like using drones for the SEAD/DEAD Wild Weasel role I would be amazed if there isn’t this already in use since it makes far too much sense for it not to be made.
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May 13, 2023 20:11
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Chalks posted:I read that patriots are pretty good at hitting hypersonic missiles as long as they know where they're going to be and can get there first. It sounds like being the target of the missile is near perfect conditions for them. Yeah, I've heard the air defense "umbrella" for reliably shooting down planes is much larger than the missile defense "umbrella", but, crucially, the Patriot battery itself will still be at the center of both. So launching a single Kinzhal to take out a Patriot battery, which already knows it's coming because the MiG-31 airbases are closely watched, is already 3-4 layers deep on the "what were you thinking?" stupidity onion.
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May 13, 2023 21:18
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What's swiss ammo production lines look like? I assume they can only make ammo for weapons they use.
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May 13, 2023 21:25
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/quote:
quote:In some cases, Zelensky is seen restraining the ambitions of his subordinates; in several others, he is the one proposing risky military actions. Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 23:16 on May 13, 2023 |
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May 13, 2023 23:13
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Cpt_Obvious posted:What's swiss ammo production lines look like? I assume they can only make ammo for weapons they use. They have a fairly substantial export business and use basically NATO standard gear. They make ammunition for NATO 155mm and 105mm caliber artillery n
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May 13, 2023 23:47
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russia air defense has crossed several red lines against russia air forces
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May 14, 2023 01:03
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Finally this is true again! There Is A Whole Lot Going On In Air Defense Artillery!
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May 14, 2023 12:15
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So is lukashenko dead or is he just very badly burnt
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May 14, 2023 18:06
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Staluigi posted:So is lukashenko dead or is he just very badly burnt Could be dead - that coffee was very hot
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May 14, 2023 18:18
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Who knows. Ever since may the 9th he never appears, he even ignored national flag and anthem day. In other news, tomorrow I shall return to glorious What hurts the most is that I will abandon the loving WRW flag, if it is seen its straight to jail.
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May 14, 2023 18:29
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Cut it into three strips and sew it together when the revolution starts or fold it so the red doesn't show and sew it closed so it looks like a pillow *(I will not carry responsibility if this doesn't work and you end up in a Belarusian prison)
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May 14, 2023 18:43
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I've been reading this thread since the invasion but without a background in the area's politics the names that appear and re-appear in this thread sometimes just wash over me. For example the above, I know who Lukashenko is but without Belarus being an active player in this conflict for nearly a year I re-read the post two or three times before I remembered. Would it be useful for anyone but me to have a list of Dramatis Personae for this thread? I can keep track of about a dozen big names in this conflict but more always pop up. Something like:
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May 14, 2023 19:01
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https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1657722960273199106 Is that even realistic to say they can end the war this year? I know it's propaganda but I don't think even Ukranians believe it
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May 14, 2023 19:07
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1657722960273199106 He isn't even saying that they can end the war this year, just put Russia into a position where defeat is inevitable
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May 14, 2023 19:10
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Tarezax posted:He isn't even saying that they can end the war this year, just put Russia into a position where defeat is inevitable He's literally asking people to determine that the war ends this year
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May 14, 2023 21:28
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RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Ulf posted:Would it be useful for anyone but me to have a list of Dramatis Personae for this thread? I can keep track of about a dozen big names in this conflict but more always pop up. Something like: Lum_ fucked around with this message at 21:37 on May 14, 2023 |
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May 14, 2023 21:35
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Willo567 posted:Is that even realistic to say they can end the war this year? I know it's propaganda but I don't think even Ukranians believe it If you know it's propaganda then why are you asking why he's saying it? He's saying it because it's good propaganda.
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May 14, 2023 21:45
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1657722960273199106 What exactly is the point of your post here?
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May 14, 2023 21:46
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Willo567 posted:He's literally asking people to determine that the war ends this year
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May 14, 2023 21:48
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fatherboxx posted:What exactly is the point of your post here? His gimmick is to live in an alternate fear ridden reality where one of the most popular war leaders in history making aspirational statements about his country's future is "bad politics" and the end of the world. Zelenskyy still remains very good at his job.
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May 14, 2023 21:49
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I asked Zelenskyy. He said we can determine already that Willo567's balls will end next Tuesday. Probably.
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May 14, 2023 22:03
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Shes Not Impressed posted:His gimmick is to live in an alternate fear ridden reality where one of the most popular war leaders in history making aspirational statements about his country's future is "bad politics" and the end of the world. I'm not saying it's bad or the end of the world, I get why he does it. It's just that his administration has done it before with regards to Russia about to run out of missiles, or them kicking Russia out of Crimea soon where it's clear that it won't happen within a few months where in reality it will probably take longer.
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May 14, 2023 22:04
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Willo567 posted:I'm not saying it's bad or the end of the world, I get why he does it. It's just that his administration has done it before with regards to Russia about to run out of missiles, or them kicking Russia out of Crimea soon where it's clear that it won't happen within a few months where in reality it will probably take longer. So what?
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May 14, 2023 22:09
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Willo567 posted:I'm not saying it's bad or the end of the world, I get why he does it. It's just that his administration has done it before with regards to Russia about to run out of missiles, or them kicking Russia out of Crimea soon where it's clear that it won't happen within a few months where in reality it will probably take longer. I logged into discord to get the latest intel and the assessment is that russia is too busy blowing up hospitals, so our balls are safe for now.
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May 14, 2023 22:17
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Willo567 posted:I'm not saying it's bad or the end of the world, I get why he does it. It's just that his administration has done it before with regards to Russia about to run out of missiles, or them kicking Russia out of Crimea soon where it's clear that it won't happen within a few months where in reality it will probably take longer. I'm not sure what the problem you're expressing here is, exactly - are you saying he's bad to give an optimistic forecast because previous optimistic forecasts haven't bourne fruit?
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May 14, 2023 22:23
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Willo567 posted:He's literally asking people to determine that the war ends this year You will have to look for what he originally said in case something was lost in translation, and the wider context of his speech. Unfortunately the JPost article doesn't go into it any deeper than that excerpt. If we take just those words then it would mean that the war can be decided this year, even though it doesn't mean that it ends there and then. Think of 1942-43: the allies got decisive victories in Midway, Alamein and Stalingrad. Axis expansion was finally stopped in those battles but the war continued for years and cost millions of lives more. To answer your original question, I would say 'it's not impossible, but'. The war won't be ended by the coming offensive for sure, though how it fares decides what will happen next. If it succeeds and Russian lines are pierced and pushed back then Ukrainian forces will keep initiative and be able to continue offensive operations later this year after r&r. Now I don't think that the war can be ended through military means within this year, even if everything went optimally for Ukraine there's just so much ground to cover and trying to speed run it would lead to unsustainable casualties. But if Russians collapsed catastrophically enough then it might force Russian leadership into some serious navel gazing and even the realisation that continuing the war is detrimental to their hold on political power. But this is very difficult to predict. It's possible that Putin has already accepted defeat and is now playing for a position where Ukraine and the west have run out of motivation to continue and Russia could keep at least some of the gains. Trump returning to power would be one such turning point. Western economies having hardships could play to Putin's pocket in general. But Russian economy is also suffering from sanctions and it's going to start showing the more as time passes. If Ukraine gives Russia big enough defeats first now and again later in the summer, it may lead into a candid re-evaluation and more willingness for negotiations. So it can be ended. But is it likely? There's just so many it's.
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May 14, 2023 22:32
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Tesseraction posted:I'm not sure what the problem you're expressing here is, exactly - are you saying he's bad to give an optimistic forecast because previous optimistic forecasts haven't bourne fruit? I'm saying it may be better to be optimistic, but also to be realistic. I already said I understand why he does it though
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May 14, 2023 22:33
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 12:53 |
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Willo567 posted:I'm saying it may be better to be optimistic, but also to be realistic. I already said I understand why he does it though It's not his job to be realistic in public. Deteriorata fucked around with this message at 22:38 on May 14, 2023 |
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May 14, 2023 22:35
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