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fatherboxx)
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Deteriorata posted:It's not his job to be realistic. Do you remember that great confidence building speech by Winny? "We will try to fight them on the beaches, and landing grounds... but if they make it from there to the streets and the hills, what's the point anymore? Nah, if they make it from the beaches then we'll surrender."
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May 14, 2023 22:40
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Shes Not Impressed posted:His gimmick is to live in an alternate fear ridden reality where one of the most popular war leaders in history making aspirational statements about his country's future is "bad politics" and the end of the world. His gimmick, which he has sliiightly toned down because the mods got tired of it and started probing him, is to constantly fear post about every event being the one event that will tumble the dominos that will lead to him personally being nuked (well his city rather), which is where the joke about nuking his balls come from. Ulf posted:I've been reading this thread since the invasion but without a background in the area's politics the names that appear and re-appear in this thread sometimes just wash over me. For example the above, I know who Lukashenko is but without Belarus being an active player in this conflict for nearly a year I re-read the post two or three times before I remembered. I think it's kinda a bit odd when you could just use google, if you are reading the forumns its like right there.
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May 14, 2023 22:43
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Nenonen posted:Do you remember that great confidence building speech by Winny? "We will try to fight them on the beaches, and landing grounds... but if they make it from there to the streets and the hills, what's the point anymore? Nah, if they make it from the beaches then we'll surrender." "We will fight them on the beaches, we will fight them on the lan-- ah what's the point? We're hosed. Agatha bring me my best brandy, yes the expensive one we're all dead in a week why save it?" Telsa Cola posted:His gimmick, which he has sliiightly toned down because the mods got tired of it and started probing him, is to constantly fear post about every event being the one event that will tumble the dominos that will lead to him personally being nuked (well his city rather), which is where the joke about nuking his balls come from. ...is he located in Ukraine? If so then I'm curious why the harshness against optimism, if not, I'm curious why he fears being personally nuked.
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May 14, 2023 22:49
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Tesseraction posted:...is he located in Ukraine? If so then I'm curious why the harshness against optimism, if not, I'm curious why he fears being personally nuked. No, and the particular brand of fear posting started up under the Trump admin with that flare up with N. Korea iirc.
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May 14, 2023 23:03
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Some action going on near Svatove. Maybe bombing Luhansk is not pointless. Anybody got confirmation of this? https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657808541028065280
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May 14, 2023 23:43
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Brain65 posted:Some action going on near Svatove. Maybe bombing Luhansk is not pointless. Anybody got confirmation of this? Defmon says its nothing. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1657834110075691008
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May 15, 2023 00:11
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Brain65 posted:Some action going on near Svatove. Maybe bombing Luhansk is not pointless. Anybody got confirmation of this? Visegrad 24 is an insanely bad source and using a Rybar map makes it even worse
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May 15, 2023 00:34
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prigozhin can have a little treason, as a treat https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/ quote:In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer. quote:Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.
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May 15, 2023 01:07
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Zelensky was asked about it in an interview and absolutely went ballistic. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-washington-post-interview-transcript/#selection-2417.114-2417.907 quote:Q: The documents indicate that HUR, your intelligence directorate, has back-channel contact with Yevgeniy Prigozhin that you were aware of, including meeting with Yevgeniy Prigozhin and HUR officers. Is that true?
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May 15, 2023 01:35
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That's so insane that it's on Prigozhin's brand, alright. But now I'm tickled by the thought that what if Ukraine and USA created the leaks on purpose to kill Prigozhin? I don't believe in this, but it would be some Ocean's 11 level smoke and mirrors. Also probably what he's going to defend himself by. Or he'll just openly admit it on Telegram and repeat the offer.
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May 15, 2023 03:38
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Lum_ posted:prigozhin can have a little treason, as a treat He knows he can't go back to Moscow, so it's to be expected. Of course, how does he know that the HUR would even honor their part of the deal? They could extract all the information they needed and then hold him for the rest of the war as a VIP POW then turn him over to the Hague whenever it was convenient.
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May 15, 2023 03:42
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Well, the Ukrainians didnt go for it because they thought it was a trick and that's by far the most likely explanation
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May 15, 2023 03:47
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Nenonen posted:That's so insane that it's on Prigozhin's brand, alright. But now I'm tickled by the thought that what if Ukraine and USA created the leaks on purpose to kill Prigozhin? I don't believe in this, but it would be some Ocean's 11 level smoke and mirrors. Also probably what he's going to defend himself by. Another crazy possibility is that one of Prigozhin's Russian enemies (of which there must be many) spread this story to try to get him killed and it got passed on to some US intel agency along the way. But we're probably getting too speculative.
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May 15, 2023 05:14
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FuturePastNow posted:Another crazy possibility is that one of Prigozhin's Russian enemies (of which there must be many) spread this story to try to get him killed and it got passed on to some US intel agency along the way. But we're probably getting too speculative. Well, broadly provenance of intelligence is a very reasonable sort of thing to wonder about (and this is presumably from the leak of US intelligence documents), since kinda the whole point is to figure out stuff that's hard to know and isn't public! And even without anyone playing these sorts of games you conjecture, there may be silly stuff like "US got it from UK who got it from Poland which has spies in Ukraine", and then some nuance is lost between multiple translations. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 05:28 on May 15, 2023 |
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May 15, 2023 05:25
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Lum_ posted:RUSSIA  Telsa Cola posted:I think it's kinda a bit odd when you could just use google, if you are reading the forumns its like right there. In book terms I was thinking a “dramatis personae” page which is different from an “index” (Google). Fair point about how this thread doesn’t need to do this for me. Just thought others might be struggling to keep up too. Ulf fucked around with this message at 06:17 on May 15, 2023 |
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May 15, 2023 06:08
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Nenonen posted:That's so insane that it's on Prigozhin's brand, alright. But now I'm tickled by the thought that what if Ukraine and USA created the leaks on purpose to kill Prigozhin? I don't believe in this, but it would be some Ocean's 11 level smoke and mirrors. Also probably what he's going to defend himself by. He's already replied. Says he's with Budanov in Africa right now. I suspect someone outside of Ukraine might have misinterpreted Prigozhin's trolling for an actual proposal. Like, he's also once openly said he would give up Bakhmut if Zelenskyy agrees to a one-on-one fighter jet duel and wins. His, uh, sense of humour may not translate very well.
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May 15, 2023 10:28
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Lum_ posted:(helpful Russia-Ukraine dramatis personae) This is very good and helpful and should be encouraged, not discouraged. Thank you.
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May 15, 2023 10:59
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Zelenskyy is back in the UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-welcomes-president-zelenskyy-to-the-uk-ahead-of-anticipated-ukrainian-military-surge More talk about training Ukrainian pilots to NATO standard; we don't have any suitable planes to give but it's clearly again another play to break the seal anothers don't want to be first on. So sooner or later expect some PR of Ukrainians on Eurofighters. quote:This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programme used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice. It's not clear what "long range attack drones" refers to. It would be a funny way to talk about Stormshadow but I don't think we have anything else already in our arsenal. Perhaps we've found a foreign supplier with something we can pay for, or we've managed to speed up something that was nascent domestically. quote:Today the Prime Minister will confirm the further UK provision of hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems including hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km
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May 15, 2023 11:29
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It's the UK government so I presume Ben Wallace just went on Amazon and searched "long range drone" and bought 200 of the top result.
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May 15, 2023 11:34
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I don't think anyone even by the most flexible of definitions considers storm shadows to be drones. I really can't think of what exists that both has hundreds to spare and that kind of range?
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May 15, 2023 11:36
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Lum_ posted:RUSSIA It's more useful than 2137th discussion about missile range/tank specification and unironically should be included in first post.
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May 15, 2023 11:38
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The UK support for Ukraine is interesting. I know Russia has done some dumb things on UK soil in the past years, and combine that with the war it is understandable that the UK seems to be going whole heart against Russia. But we all know governments and nations do almost nothing out of the kindness of their hearts. Has the UK government or their MOD said much about who and/or how they are paying for all this support? Because there is only one other country that would be willing and able to pick up that bill.
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May 15, 2023 13:28
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's not clear what "long range attack drones" refers to. It would be a funny way to talk about Stormshadow but I don't think we have anything else already in our arsenal. Perhaps we've found a foreign supplier with something we can pay for, or we've managed to speed up something that was nascent domestically. I am trying to figure out what they hell they are talking about and nothing really fits that bill. Even the Storm Shadow doesn’t really even if you are using a weird description. The only “attack drone” the UK has is the Reaper which has a hell of a longer range than 200km and I would think giving them Predators would be the better option for a lot of reasons at the moment.
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May 15, 2023 13:34
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A couple thoughts on Storm Shadow:
This situation with long-range missiles makes me think that Ukraine's best bet to get ATACMS is for the US to accelerate its Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) program. We're not making more ATACMS, but US DoD clearly feels that it needs all of them for a Taiwan contingency. PrSM is supposed to enter service in 2023, which given how the US tends to under-report, probably means we have them today. (It wouldn't surprise me if we had them last year, tbh.)
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May 15, 2023 13:35
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You're right its partially payback for the Polonium and Novichok attacks. The latter in particular was seen to have really crossed a line, as it cost the life of an innocent bystander. But its also driven by the fact the Tories are genuinely unpopular at the moment and don't really have anything to turn it around. They have nothing to offer the public other than saying no to nurses asking for pay increases, stoking culture war, and shrieking about stopping imaginary boats. But as demonstrated by Johnson - support for Ukraine is relatively popular, and allows them to pose as respected statesmen of a post-Brexit 'Global Britain'. And its relatively cheap too, as the costs are basically deferred - most of it simply involves stripping the armed forces of its equipment and shipping it over, and leaving it to Labour to pay the bill after the next election. I'm oversimplifying of course, but its not too far off. Ynglaur posted:
Fun fact: the UK's equivalent of the White House Situation Room, is the COBRA committee Tigey fucked around with this message at 13:46 on May 15, 2023 |
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May 15, 2023 13:37
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Dick Ripple posted:The UK support for Ukraine is interesting. I know Russia has done some dumb things on UK soil in the past years, and combine that with the war it is understandable that the UK seems to be going whole heart against Russia. But we all know governments and nations do almost nothing out of the kindness of their hearts. Has the UK government or their MOD said much about who and/or how they are paying for all this support? Because there is only one other country that would be willing and able to pick up that bill.
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May 15, 2023 13:45
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Ynglaur posted:
US sold some to Morocco.
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May 15, 2023 13:54
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I think it's motivated by domestic politics. Boris Johnson saw it as a last chance to save his ailing premiership, and while that failed the Conservatives still see it as a way to prevent an otherwise highly likely loss in the general election next year. It's this. The war is popular domestically at a time where literally everything else the Torys do isn't. And since Labour is currently dedicated to doing everything the Torys are, support for Ukraine isn't likely to change.
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May 15, 2023 13:58
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Dick Ripple posted:The UK support for Ukraine is interesting. I know Russia has done some dumb things on UK soil in the past years, and combine that with the war it is understandable that the UK seems to be going whole heart against Russia. But we all know governments and nations do almost nothing out of the kindness of their hearts. Has the UK government or their MOD said much about who and/or how they are paying for all this support? Because there is only one other country that would be willing and able to pick up that bill. Supporting Ukraine is the only popular thing the Tory government has managed to do in a long time so they're not going to stop any time soon, and what they're able to afford is relative. How much do we need a bunch of Storm Shadow missiles or Challenger tanks right now? How quickly do we need to replace them? If you want to donate more stuff, just pick different answers to those questions. They're all guesses anyway.
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May 15, 2023 14:07
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Also every British PM wants to be Churchill.
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May 15, 2023 14:09
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WW2 is pretty much the founding myth of modern post-empire Britain. We might be living off food banks and our rivers full of poo poo (thanks to privitised water companies) but the chance to stand up to something militarily is the perfect reason to wave our union jacks.
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May 15, 2023 14:09
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Yeah between that and Russia's chemical attack against the UK I doubt the support for Ukraine is dropping off any time soon.
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May 15, 2023 14:13
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https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1658094643244834820?t=Wv4l8GHxHt09WxubgAiV0A&s=19 Love how PR-obsessed Shoigu utterly failed to cover his son-in-law youtube lifestyle blogging obsession - even more I love how seething and malding True Patriots have failed to make even a dent in him and get that story going. They try to make donation runs for plate carriers and boots while this guy parties like it is 2013
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May 15, 2023 14:21
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OddObserver posted:US sold some to Morocco. It's pending Congressional approval, and will still take months/years to result in actual munitions getting to Morocco. I.e. by then Ukraine will likely be decided, and (more importantly), the US will have PrSM in enough numbers that ATACMS will be yesterday's ammunition.
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May 15, 2023 14:36
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1658094643244834820?t=Wv4l8GHxHt09WxubgAiV0A&s=19 Care to summarise for those of us who aren't going to subscribe to a random substack for gossip about a porn actress?
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May 15, 2023 14:38
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Well you don't have to subscribe, you can just hit the "continue reading" button when it prompts you to subscribe. But there's not a ton there, just that Shoigu's son-in-law there is a piece of poo poo generally, but also he appeared in some random lovely hustle lifestyle YouTube videos. Also that Eva Elfie makes some antiwar posts which is cool of her.
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May 15, 2023 14:52
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Failed Imagineer posted:Care to summarise for those of us who aren't going to subscribe to a random substack for gossip about a porn actress? It is a brief overview of Sergei Shoigu's (sternfaced Russian minister of defense with the longest career in Russian politics who likes to cutivate the image of a problem solver and a reincarnation of Subutai) dipshit son in law, who has a pretty big lifestyle youtube channel with usual clickbait poo poo like SPENT A DAY WITH PORNSTAR LMAO still going while Shoigu carries a crusade for traditional values. Like I said, Russian nationalists hate him with a passion but completely powerless to raise attention even with all their internet resources and patriotic networks. Just another corruption story about how Russian leadership will never overcome its hypocrisy and gluttony. Although everyone would prefer if they wasted money on that instead of missiles and draftees.
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May 15, 2023 14:57
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Staluigi posted:So is lukashenko dead or is he just very badly burnt He's 'fine'. 
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May 15, 2023 15:20
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Dick Ripple posted:The UK support for Ukraine is interesting. I know Russia has done some dumb things on UK soil in the past years, and combine that with the war it is understandable that the UK seems to be going whole heart against Russia. But we all know governments and nations do almost nothing out of the kindness of their hearts. Has the UK government or their MOD said much about who and/or how they are paying for all this support? Because there is only one other country that would be willing and able to pick up that bill. It's hard to overstate just how angry British government officials got with Putin treating England as a free fire zone for polonium assassinations. There's definitely an element of payback involved. Also, a lot of it (which covers pretty much every country's motivation) is that all this military gear has been stockpiled mainly to stop a Russian invasion of Europe and, well, Russia's invading Europe so it's not like much would be gained by holding back at this point. It's being used for its assigned purpose of making Russian armor divisions disappear. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 15:28 on May 15, 2023 |
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May 15, 2023 15:23
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 10:41 |
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Russia had assassinated defectors on UK soil in the past but the Salisbury poisonings were really a step up since they a) also attempted to murder their target's daughter and b) caused the death of an entirely uninvolved civilian due to their recklessness. I also suspect that Russia's absurdly unconvincing denials following the event mean that very few people in the UK are buying their bullshit this time around.
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May 15, 2023 15:36
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