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fatherboxx)
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Neither Kinzhal incerceptions nor successful hits have been confirmed
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May 16, 2023 14:25
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Reminds me of the 1991 stuff where Patriot missiles would intercept Scuds but the warhead would keep falling and blow up something random on the ground. Missiles can be surprisingly large and hits aren't always "clean" so flaming and exploding debris rains down, and it can look like the missile got through and hit something even if it really didn't.
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May 16, 2023 14:35
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fatherboxx posted:Neither Kinzhal incerceptions nor successful hits have been confirmed Military expert on ФБК YouTube show recently claimed that Kinzhal is closely related to Iskander or whatever other missile and is very easy to misidentify from broken scrap alone. I don't know how true that is, but Kinzhal missiles are the latest and greatest Russian Boogeyman buzzword of the week, so there is obvious propaganda value in making unsubstantiated claims. Right next to that 600 downed aircraft figure. Take it with a grain of salt
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May 16, 2023 14:35
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cr0y posted:If that AD kill rate is anywhere near accurate that is absurdly good. The Patriot has always been known to be very, very good. It is why there has always been a lot of pushback from certain nations when they are bought/given. The only thing that is better is AEGIS, which is significantly more expensive and not mobile on land. Though I think when/if Russia is pushed out of Ukraine the US will likely build a Aegis Ashore site or two within Ukraine as a part of their long term deployment strategy, much like how they did in Poland.
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May 16, 2023 14:38
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Dwesa posted:And known fan of churches, Stalin I mean, during WWII Stalin ended the official repression of the Church and tens of thousands of churches were reopened and rebuilt across the USSR, as it was enlisted on the side of the communist party in the war. This policy also largely did not revert after the war either. Besides the modern Russian communist party* is generally pretty close with the orthodox church far as I understand. Things aren't really as simple as you'd believe in this case. *Both the modern communist party and the one in the old soviet union also were pretty drat conservative/regressive on lots of social issues, like gender and sexuality.
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May 16, 2023 14:53
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Randarkman posted:*Both the modern communist party and the one in the old soviet union also were pretty drat conservative/regressive on lots of social issues, like gender and sexuality. In theory the Soviet Communist Party was highly progressive on women's issues. In practice, it just meant women could work in addition to being solely responsible for raising children, cooking, cleaning, etc..
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May 16, 2023 14:59
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Nitrox posted:Military expert on ФБК YouTube show recently claimed that Kinzhal is closely related to Iskander or whatever other missile and is very easy to misidentify from broken scrap alone. My understanding is that the Kinzhal is an Iskander with a different first stage, and design changes to allow it to be launched from an aircraft rather than the ground. Basically, it uses the carrying aircraft's velocity to give it a boost and push it into "hypersonic" speeds (i.e. faster than Mach 5). It's unclear from OSINT if it's Mach 5 only in higher elevations or if it maintains that speed as it descends to lower elevations. Either way, it's fast, but doesn't seem to have the evasive abilities of e.g. Storm Shadow, or certain modern anti-ship missiles.
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May 16, 2023 14:59
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Russia claiming they killed a Patriot. But they wouldn't just go and lie like that
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May 16, 2023 15:30
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Failed Imagineer posted:Russia claiming they killed a Patriot. I guess it could well be true if they swarmed it with missles. How would we find out?
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May 16, 2023 15:48
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Failed Imagineer posted:Russia claiming they killed a Patriot. What does it mean to kill a patriot? Is it a launcher, the radar system, or all the launchers and the radar and the command module? Seems unlikely that they would get the lot in a single barrage.
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May 16, 2023 15:55
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How did they manage to fit it through the window and over the balcony in the first place?
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May 16, 2023 15:59
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Kammat posted:How did they manage to fit it through the window and over the balcony in the first place? The threw the window/balcony up and around the missile (like tossing a paper towel roll around a pen), thus instantly killing the missile in a horrible accident.
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May 16, 2023 16:06
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I mean, they may have hit it. I'm sure they've fired a lot of missiles at it. It's kind of technically mobile but unlike the HIMARS it can't just fire a shot and run away. We'll just send Ukraine another one if necessary
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May 16, 2023 16:08
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It would be easier to believe if Russia specified which “it” they meant, bc the whole shebang is definitely not hit.
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May 16, 2023 16:17
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:It would be easier to believe if Russia specified which “it” they meant, bc the whole shebang is definitely not hit. a patriot-system has eight launchers, so that would only be possible if some of those hits "skipped" straight into multiple launchers, as that are more launchers than the observed hits edit: OK, I've found a second source claiming PATRIOT-batteries have 6 launchers instead of 8. So apparently, the number of launchers can vary, but since I don't think Ukraine got PATRIOTs with abnormally low numbers of launchers, that's still too many to destroy in a single strike. Libluini fucked around with this message at 16:23 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 16:19
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FuturePastNow posted:I mean, they may have hit it. I'm sure they've fired a lot of missiles at it. It's kind of technically mobile but unlike the HIMARS it can't just fire a shot and run away. We'll just send Ukraine another one if necessary Obviously, they destroyed the Missiles. 
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May 16, 2023 16:19
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OperaMouse posted:Isn't there are also an aspect with the extremely atheistic communist regime, so being religious refers to prefer the tsarist era over the communist era? “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality” were explicitly what the Tsar was all about.
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May 16, 2023 16:29
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Some details about the new UK drones starting to leak out but it's still quite vague. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/15/britain-send-ukraine-suicide-drones-twice-the-range-himars/
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May 16, 2023 16:30
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They destroyed the patriot (missiles) by slamming their own cruise missiles into them.
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May 16, 2023 16:30
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Pablo Bluth posted:Some details about the new UK drones starting to leak out but it's still quite vague. So this sounds like something brand new? I never knew about switchblades until this conflict so I wouldn't be surprised if some new weapon gets unveiled.
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May 16, 2023 16:31
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We can send all the patriot launchers to Ukraine that we want. The bigger question is how many missiles can be sent? It seems like Ukraine is already launching a lot of them I wonder how long it will be before they run out. And I wonder how many are built every year? Probably not a whole lot.
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May 16, 2023 16:34
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:It would be easier to believe if Russia specified which “it” they meant, bc the whole shebang is definitely not hit. The official reports says it was a 'US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system'.
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May 16, 2023 16:56
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Paladinus posted:The official reports says it was a 'US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system'. A system is multiple dispersed targets tho
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May 16, 2023 16:58
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Charliegrs posted:We can send all the patriot launchers to Ukraine that we want. The bigger question is how many missiles can be sent? It seems like Ukraine is already launching a lot of them I wonder how long it will be before they run out. And I wonder how many are built every year? Probably not a whole lot. They have been making Patriot missiles since the early 80s and there are tens of thousands produced. The actual missiles themselves are very cheap and fast to produce by Raytheon. It was one of the main goals of the project originally as the US envisioned in a hot war with the Soviets that there would be waves of bombers and missiles raining in regularly. They wanted to be able to make and replenish supply of the missiles quickly and cheaply. Russia would run out of things to put in the sky before you would run out of Patriot missiles.
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May 16, 2023 17:21
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Charliegrs posted:We can send all the patriot launchers to Ukraine that we want. The bigger question is how many missiles can be sent? It seems like Ukraine is already launching a lot of them I wonder how long it will be before they run out. And I wonder how many are built every year? Probably not a whole lot. Probably a lot more than S-300 missiles are made outside Russia.
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May 16, 2023 17:32
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This kills the Patriot
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May 16, 2023 18:27
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So there is this https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1658508441134981120?t=QGjyiVGXjIpBrC0JraSFRA&s=19
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May 16, 2023 18:31
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fatherboxx posted:So there is this Just post the article instead of some random tweet. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html quote:Another US official said it is possible that the missile barrage hit one of the Patriot battery’s several components. A complete Patriot battery has six major components: generators, a radar set, a control station, antennas, a launcher station and interceptor missiles. The components operate together to fire a Patriot missile and successfully guide it to its target.
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May 16, 2023 18:33
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The only conclusion I can get from that article is that US defense officials talk too much.
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May 16, 2023 18:40
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So I did a little internet searching to get some number for how many patriot missiles are available. It seems like public info suggests quite a bit, like 10,000. But drat they're expensive, like 2-4 million a piece. But even crazier is apparently the full launcher setup for a patriot with all the command and radar equipment is over a billion a piece. And we only have something like 15 of them in total. So yeah if Russia takes one sure we can just "send another" but apparently we don't have many and a billion dollar loss is nothing to scoff at even if it's just US military krustybucks.
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May 16, 2023 18:55
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no way it's a billion dollar loss unless they totaled the entire system, which seems unlikely. in any event, every missile sent at it is a missile not sent into a Ukrainian barracks or training ground or command post or staging area or armor repair depot or civilian building, so even if it's costly it's soaking up a lot of limited russian resources.
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May 16, 2023 19:02
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Charliegrs posted:So I did a little internet searching to get some number for how many patriot missiles are available. It seems like public info suggests quite a bit, like 10,000. But drat they're expensive, like 2-4 million a piece. But even crazier is apparently the full launcher setup for a patriot with all the command and radar equipment is over a billion a piece. And we only have something like 15 of them in total. So yeah if Russia takes one sure we can just "send another" but apparently we don't have many and a billion dollar loss is nothing to scoff at even if it's just US military krustybucks. I assume that if they just took out the radar or generators or whatever they can replace that without having to shell out for a complete system. That there's even a hint the Ukrainians might be able to repair it makes me wonder if it's not even that bad, like a missile just hit nearby and there was some damage but not complete destruction.
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May 16, 2023 19:04
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If they even "took out" anything.
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May 16, 2023 19:05
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Bremen posted:That there's even a hint the Ukrainians might be able to repair it makes me wonder if it's not even that bad, like a missile just hit nearby and there was some damage but not complete destruction. Moon Slayer posted:If they even "took out" anything. Yeah, that official quoted above said "it is possible, that" it was damaged. Typical politician talk. This is just chasing rumors until some real info shows up.
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May 16, 2023 19:24
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"whether it can be repaired or should be pulled back" can mean they hit one of the more important control pieces, which are a one-off, and not one of the many launchers. Also not sure why they'd ever want to confirm anything like this for Russia as that would tell them that the Patriot is offline. Obviously expected some AA pieces will be lost in mass targeted attacks. Hopefully, they can have Ratheon ship specific replacement components that get damaged. Even better if they're lying to trick Russia into thinking that the Patriot is offline. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 19:35 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 19:28
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Russian military intelligence is surely awful but I dont think they fish for hit confirmations and damage reports on twitter
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May 16, 2023 19:31
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There are considerably more than 15 Patriot batteries deployed globally. Yes, they're expensive, but the US also has a trillion dollar military budget. The US currently has 15 battalions (each battalion has 4 to 5 Patriot batteries) and are budgeted to add more, and Europe, Israel, and Asia also have their own.
Lum_ fucked around with this message at 19:35 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 19:32
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Also is it one of those accounting things where a massive development cost is being amortized over a low unit production count? Implying that if you wanted to build more the incremental cost would be far lower (assuming of course you can still source the electronics at all)?
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May 16, 2023 19:39
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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PittTheElder posted:Also is it one of those accounting things where a massive development cost is being amortized over a low unit production count? Implying that if you wanted to build more the incremental cost would be far lower (assuming of course you can still source the electronics at all)? Simple answer: yes. Sometimes they even include lifetime training costs in the total capability cost, which can double-count labor costs of you're not careful. I know enough of this to be thankful I'm not an accountant.
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May 16, 2023 19:48
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Moon Slayer posted:If they even "took out" anything. Radars can be incredibly fickle and sensitive and it wouldn't surprise me if something was damaged even by a shot down missile falling to ground and exploding close enough. But that kind of damage would probably be easy to fix, even though in due time the battery would be out of order.
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May 16, 2023 19:49
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