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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
My personal horror, if I were some kind of engineer involved in precise stuff, would be to mess up between nanometres and nautical miles.

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notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Nenonen posted:

There's going to be a few bottlenecks in delivering those 155000mm shells from factory to the front though.

They never leave the factory, the other end simply touches Moscow.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Mederlock posted:



Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav? :freep:

Obama didn't make anime real, but the nazis did make Warhammer real

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mederlock posted:



Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav? :freep:

Dont give Russia ideas, we love trains and armored trains too much

(also please get back on topic everyone)

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

The story about the Ivan Khurs continues to develop

https://twitter.com/OSINTMISCIF/status/1662060981160222720

https://twitter.com/mexic0la_/status/1662156739649867776

Really starting to remind me of what happened with the Moskva. Sank while trying to limp back to port after the fatal strike.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
They did release some footage of it in Sevastopol, but it's not like there was a giant date sign in the picture in it.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
I don't think this was mentioned when it came out last week, but all of the Finnish embassy and consulate bank accounts in Russia were frozen in April which was realized on April 27th. This affects the embassy in Moscow and head consulate in St. Pete, the other two consulates in Murmansk and Petrozavodsk were temporarily closed earlier this year due to a lack of business.

Finnish foreign ministry reacted to the situation by giving a diplomatic note on May 4th but Russian foreign ministry has not given a formal response to this date.

Their rep Maria Zakharova however commented that it's a mirror sanction to Finnish sanctions toward Russian missions (embassy in Helsinki and consulates in Turku and Mariehamn). According to Russian embassy they are only allowed to use one bank (Nordea) and they also claim that there is a long approval process for all transactions along with a prohibitive 5000 euro transaction fee on all payments. Sounds normal for Nordea :v: But according to Finnish foreign ministry they haven't done anything to limit Russian embassy bank access or freezing their accounts and have done their best to help them. Given Russia's track record on truthfulness it's easy to tell that they are lying, though I can see most banks feeling concerned about providing banking services to a sanctioned terrorist state so maybe there is some kind of real grievance on the background that they are now trying to use as a wedge against EU sanctions?

Today's Izvestiya quotes the Russian embassy in Finland saying that the diplomats from both countries are working to "resolve the situation". Yeah, right.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Nenonen posted:

My personal horror, if I were some kind of engineer involved in precise stuff, would be to mess up between nanometres and nautical miles.

You meant to bomb Moscow but it comes down on your own crotch

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

OddObserver posted:

They did release some footage of it in Sevastopol, but it's not like there was a giant date sign in the picture in it.

If it's this, it was from 2 years ago:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1661749083487485956

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
mods, can we install a word filter that replaces every instance of "Russia" with "ruZzia" itt? tia

Kallikaa
Jun 13, 2001

fatherboxx posted:

Dont give Russia ideas, we love trains and armored trains too much

(also please get back on topic everyone)

You'd better go to the Russian railway museum and check if the TM-3-12 is still there

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer
Ukraine has started asking for the German cruise missile Taurus.

Which made me sit up, since development of that thing was a giant pain for the Bundeswehr. But looking the thing up on Wikipedia, Germany apparently eventually managed to make some, and even Spain and some other country I think? got some.

Our current stock (Germany) is something like 600, but we also don't need a bunker-busting cruise missile right now, so there's really no reason not to give them over. Eventually, since the thing is mainly launched from a fighter.

The one minor obstacle: The F-16 is one of the fighters that can't carry a Taurus. The things are only compatible with Tornados, Eurofighters, F-18s, F-15s and JAs-39 Gripen.

But since Germany is thinking about training jet pilots for Ukraine, maybe eventually we'll see something like German Tornados and a bunch of those approx. 500 km range missiles showing up on the front? Maybe 1-2 years from now, if the war hasn't ended by then.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1662187819240964139

GUR is reporting that Russia is planning some kind of release at ZNPP, and blaming it on Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1662194493519458304

Russia state press agency TASS is reporting that Ukraine is planning to attack the ZNPP, and blaming it on Russia.


Meaning that Russia is definitely up to something. This is very bad.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Libluini posted:

Ukraine has started asking for the German cruise missile Taurus.

Which made me sit up, since development of that thing was a giant pain for the Bundeswehr. But looking the thing up on Wikipedia, Germany apparently eventually managed to make some, and even Spain and some other country I think? got some.

Our current stock (Germany) is something like 600, but we also don't need a bunker-busting cruise missile right now, so there's really no reason not to give them over. Eventually, since the thing is mainly launched from a fighter.

The one minor obstacle: The F-16 is one of the fighters that can't carry a Taurus. The things are only compatible with Tornados, Eurofighters, F-18s, F-15s and JAs-39 Gripen.

:thunk:

news from yesterday posted:

STOCKHOLM (AP) — Sweden’s defense minister says the Nordic country is considering whether to let Ukrainian pilots test its JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets.

So far, Sweden has ruled out sending any Gripen fighters to Ukraine, saying it needs them for its own territorial defense. But Defense Minister Pål Jonsson told Swedish broadcaster TV4 that Sweden was looking with a “positive spirit” on a Ukrainian request to allow its pilots to try out the Swedish plane.

“That could, for example, mean test flights, using simulators, learning more about the extensive ground system that is part of the Gripen system,” he said Thursday.

Ukraine has long asked for Western fighter jets to help it resist the full-scale Russian invasion, now in its second year. Initially reluctant, the U.S. and other NATO countries recently agreed to allow Ukrainian pilots to receive training to fly F-16 fighters, though none has yet committed to hand over any planes.

They are not going to be giving Gripens from Swedish air force's stock to Ukraine, though. But Gripen is a much more affordable fighter to produce than F-35, so it makes you wonder...

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


More Belgorod stuff happening

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1662198110095900673?s=20

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/26/ukraine-diia-app-fedorov-russian-troops

quote:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was elected in 2019 on a pledge to put "the state in a smartphone." That effort has become more complex but also more urgent as a result of Russia's invasion. The man leading the initiative, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, told Axios that Zelensky instructed him to "create the most convenient governance system" in the world. The resulting app, Diia, provides citizens with a digital ID and allows them to register a business or obtain dozens of other government services without waiting in line or being asked to pay a bribe, an all-too-common occurrence.

......

Fedorov, 32, never expected to be rolling out some of the newer functions. Ukrainians can use Diia to seek evacuation assistance or file a claim if their home is damaged by Russian shelling. Nearly 1 million war bonds have been purchased using the app, according to Fedorov. Using an "e-Enemy" feature, they can also submit reports and even videos of Russian troop movements. "There is a situational awareness system and this information is fed into this system," Fedorov explained to Axios. "And then of course they [the military] have to verify — they use satellite images, other sources — before they act on it."

......

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
What, KEPD 350s?

I'm sure Taurus would love to restart production on them, and you can probably bolt them to a plane and program them on the ground if you are feeling adventurous.

But they are fairly limited in number (150 units operational) because bundeswehr.txt with no replacement in sight, so…

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Libluini posted:

Ukraine has started asking for the German cruise missile Taurus.

Which made me sit up, since development of that thing was a giant pain for the Bundeswehr. But looking the thing up on Wikipedia, Germany apparently eventually managed to make some, and even Spain and some other country I think? got some.

Our current stock (Germany) is something like 600, but we also don't need a bunker-busting cruise missile right now, so there's really no reason not to give them over. Eventually, since the thing is mainly launched from a fighter.

The one minor obstacle: The F-16 is one of the fighters that can't carry a Taurus. The things are only compatible with Tornados, Eurofighters, F-18s, F-15s and JAs-39 Gripen.

But since Germany is thinking about training jet pilots for Ukraine, maybe eventually we'll see something like German Tornados and a bunch of those approx. 500 km range missiles showing up on the front? Maybe 1-2 years from now, if the war hasn't ended by then.
If they give Ukraine Taurus, I'd expect it to be launched from Su24 just like Stormshadow apparently is.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1661410105366020107

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Seems to be a bunch of strikes against Russian barracks today as well

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1662184011836342286

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1662009378717810688

Feels like the pace of things is picking up. I also imagine these deep strikes will only have limited efficacy before Russia adapts so Ukraine will probably want to capitalise on them soon.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






This Zaporizhzhia stuff seems to me like a desperate attempt by Russia to halt the counteroffensive. Which tells me that at least Russia thinks that it's imminent.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
Didn't see this posted yet, long interview/detail piece on Budanov, Ukraine's head of military intelligence (HUR). Slightly strange character that guy, interesting things in article

Some excerpts

quote:

After the Crimean operation, Budanov often appeared on the front line in Donbas. There, he was wounded three times.

“The first time was easy. I caught a piece of shrapnel. Then it was difficult: after the explosion of an anti-personnel mine, one of the fragments hit my heart. I was told it was too dangerous to remove from my body. My back and neck were broken. I went through the front line at my own pace, on adrenaline, for about 5 km, and then collapsed, exhausted,” Budanov recounted to NV. "The injury is serious, but survivable." The third time, he was shot in the right arm, which has not been able to bend well since then, as the bullet knocked out his elbow joint.

quote:

Vadym Ivchenko, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, met Budanov in March 2022. A U.S. soldier who previously conducted special operations in Iraq, wanted to contact the head of the HUR, and Ivchenko arranged the meeting. Then there were several more rendezvous, and as a result, the U.S. citizen played an important role in organizing military aid to Ukraine.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Nenonen posted:

:thunk:

They are not going to be giving Gripens from Swedish air force's stock to Ukraine, though. But Gripen is a much more affordable fighter to produce than F-35, so it makes you wonder...

The Gripens on offer are probably the ones leased to the Czech Airforce.

I doubt any newly built fighters will have an impact on this war. Or at least I hope so.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Chalks posted:

Seems to be a bunch of strikes against Russian barracks today as well

Feels like the pace of things is picking up. I also imagine these deep strikes will only have limited efficacy before Russia adapts so Ukraine will probably want to capitalise on them soon.

They've been doing this since they got HIMARS. There's not a lot Russia can do to adapt to it - air defense in places absolutely bristling with the latest and greatest hasn't exactly had a phenomenal track record against HIMARS and it's not exactly easy to not have groups of people, ammo, or important electronic things in the same place while fighting a war.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Warbadger posted:

They've been doing this since they got HIMARS. There's not a lot Russia can do to adapt to it - air defense in places absolutely bristling with the latest and greatest hasn't exactly had a phenomenal track record against HIMARS and it's not exactly easy to not have groups of people, ammo, or important electronic things in the same place while fighting a war.

The azovstal strike is different though, using storm shadow's bunker busting abilities they seem to have done enough damage to require a major rescue operation deep within Russian controlled territory. Much further than HIMARS can reach.

I also don't remember many reports of recent strikes against Russian barracks with HIMARS. When they were first introduced there was a lot but I wouldn't blame Ukraine if recently they avoided striking vulnerable targets until closer to the counteroffensive to maximize the impact.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Chalks posted:

The azovstal strike is different though, using storm shadow's bunker busting abilities they seem to have done enough damage to require a major rescue operation deep within Russian controlled territory. Much further than HIMARS can reach.

I also don't remember many reports of recent strikes against Russian barracks with HIMARS. When they were first introduced there was a lot but I wouldn't blame Ukraine if recently they avoided striking vulnerable targets until closer to the counteroffensive to maximize the impact.

Well they can hit those targets, wait for the lines to be weakened from lack of supplies, bust through them much more easily while Russia retreats to a new line. Rinse and repeat all while losing more irreplaceable blood and treasure.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Chalks posted:

The azovstal strike is different though, using storm shadow's bunker busting abilities they seem to have done enough damage to require a major rescue operation deep within Russian controlled territory. Much further than HIMARS can reach.

I also don't remember many reports of recent strikes against Russian barracks with HIMARS. When they were first introduced there was a lot but I wouldn't blame Ukraine if recently they avoided striking vulnerable targets until closer to the counteroffensive to maximize the impact.

Yes, Russia moved a lot of important stuff further behind the lines and HIMARS has continued to hit the stuff they couldn't move. Storm Shadow makes it possible to hit the stuff that could be moved - and sure enough Ukraine is now hitting the big stuff further afield again.

Many of the targets already hit are in pretty heavily defended areas, Russian air defense does not appear to have had much luck shooting them down, and good luck moving everything 200km+ further back.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Chalks posted:

The azovstal strike is different though, using storm shadow's bunker busting abilities they seem to have done enough damage to require a major rescue operation deep within Russian controlled territory. Much further than HIMARS can reach.

I also don't remember many reports of recent strikes against Russian barracks with HIMARS. When they were first introduced there was a lot but I wouldn't blame Ukraine if recently they avoided striking vulnerable targets until closer to the counteroffensive to maximize the impact.

Azovstal was absolutely destroyed, I don't really understand how there could be a viable barracks there at all. I guess maybe some of the underground bunkers survived and got cleaned up? Even then, it wouldn't seem like regular troops would be stashed in the bunkers (vs. any other type of building), but maybe VIPs or high value soldiers. Just seems like a weird place to put mobilized soldiers unless they did extensive clean-up.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Nenonen posted:

mods, can we install a word filter that replaces every instance of "Russia" with "ruZzia" itt? tia

It is Muscovia now, or Muzzcovia with the number of Zs to be subject to change. Dont be caught slippin!

jaete posted:

Didn't see this posted yet, long interview/detail piece on Budanov, Ukraine's head of military intelligence (HUR). Slightly strange character that guy, interesting things in article

Some excerpts

Yeah, he is very weird, has a pet toad and a map of divided Russia in the cabinet and leans heavily into his meme status of a man who is behind every fire or crash in Russia and occupied territories. Uncommon to have an intelligence guy in a such public position, but Ukraine has been writing the new playbook for doing the media game, so maybe it is worth it. Its gonna be some time before it gets clear if his command over HUR got tangible results or if it is mostly smoke.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

ummel posted:

Azovstal was absolutely destroyed, I don't really understand how there could be a viable barracks there at all. I guess maybe some of the underground bunkers survived and got cleaned up? Even then, it wouldn't seem like regular troops would be stashed in the bunkers (vs. any other type of building), but maybe VIPs or high value soldiers. Just seems like a weird place to put mobilized soldiers unless they did extensive clean-up.

The machinery and tools may have been destroyed and most of the buildings maybe even burned out but concrete structures are hard to entirely destroy. Even in Bakhmut apartment blocks remain standing. They are certainly unsuitable for civilian use but they are perfectly fine for storing supplies and more comfortable than a trench or tent.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
RUSI's report indicated that Russia has made several adaptations to Ukrainian deep strike capabilities such as HIMARS. Everything from displacing further back (Division headquarters are typically 90+km from the front) to ground-based air defenses targeting the incoming missiles to GPS spoofing electronic warfare assets redicing accuracy to emplacing high-value assets in concrete buildings. All of those adaptations have their own costs, of course, but Russian command and control has been fairly solid since last fall.

Moktaro
Aug 3, 2007
I value call my nuts.

Comstar posted:

I tell you this is all a remake of Kellys Heroes.


We need an all star cast and start burning some bridges.

Well the Belgorod excursion was basically a dime store The Expendables, so...

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Ynglaur posted:

RUSI's report indicated that Russia has made several adaptations to Ukrainian deep strike capabilities such as HIMARS. Everything from displacing further back (Division headquarters are typically 90+km from the front) to ground-based air defenses targeting the incoming missiles to GPS spoofing electronic warfare assets redicing accuracy to emplacing high-value assets in concrete buildings. All of those adaptations have their own costs, of course, but Russian command and control has been fairly solid since last fall.

Yet the deep strikes continued on what was left in range, and the juicy stuff that got moved back started getting hit again as soon as the Ukrainians got a deeper striking munition. And in case you didn't notice neither ammunition nor "solid" command has been in abundant supply at the Russian front lines since last fall.

I don't think we're going to see a huge string of gigantic ammo dumps lit off like we did last year simply due to the fact that the Russian army isn't exactly sitting on gigantic stockpiles of ammunition anymore.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 03:10 on May 27, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1662044505678249984?t=qlbxHU6nkLRaPpp-Xlgd_w&s=19

Good thread on the troubles in Russian opposition, particularly the Navalny team.

They are in an extremely non-favorable position where operating outside of the country naturally diminishes influence on people in Russia while outside forces either want them to be gone (being in competition for attention with Ukrainian
and Baltic activists and official narratives of those countries) or to do something tangible (which is currently impossible). They dont help the situation themselves by engaging in the stupidest media fights.

Frankly, with the war threatening to go on for years and regime on a steady road to turning into Iran of the north they are doomed to become a dissident union for emigrants but no one wants that fate since useless and comical White emigration of the 1920s and dissidents of 1970s are caution tales of irrelevancy.

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1662044505678249984?t=qlbxHU6nkLRaPpp-Xlgd_w&s=19

Good thread on the troubles in Russian opposition, particularly the Navalny team.

They are in an extremely non-favorable position where operating outside of the country naturally diminishes influence on people in Russia while outside forces either want them to be gone (being in competition for attention with Ukrainian
and Baltic activists and official narratives of those countries) or to do something tangible (which is currently impossible). They dont help the situation themselves by engaging in the stupidest media fights.

Frankly, with the war threatening to go on for years and regime on a steady road to turning into Iran of the north they are doomed to become a dissident union for emigrants but no one wants that fate since useless and comical White emigration of the 1920s and dissidents of 1970s are caution tales of irrelevancy.

It's interesting speaking to Russians in the west about this, because every single opposition politician except their favourite is controlled opposition. There's this paranoia where depending on who you speak to, Navalny, Sobchak (reasonable arguments here, maybe), Yashin, Kara-Murza, Roizman, Katz etc are all either controlled by Putin, or the person who will save Russian democracy.

It's clearly an effective strategy, which seems to manage to depoliticise Russians even when they're outside of the grasp of the regime. The incessant infighting and accusations of corruption etc also means you can never build a coalition, because nobody trusts anyone.

Ukrainians I've spoken to have no interest at all in cooperating with them either, and usually for quite understandable reasons. There's no sense of having a common enemy, at least not from what I've heard.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Storkrasch posted:

Ukrainians I've spoken to have no interest at all in cooperating with them either, and usually for quite understandable reasons. There's no sense of having a common enemy, at least not from what I've heard.

Well, to quote Stalin, "how many divisions does Pope have?", the most important dimension for Ukraine is the battlefield and the only forces that matter are the ones that can directly arm and train Ukrainian soldiers.

At the same time sponsoring micro "decolonisation activists" from Russia or providing welfare for Illya Ponomaryov and Akhmed Zakayev seems counterproductive but I guess thats not much money wasted in the grand scheme of thing.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 10:44 on May 27, 2023

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

Uncommon to have an intelligence guy in a such public position, but Ukraine has been writing the new playbook for doing the media game, so maybe it is worth it. Its gonna be some time before it gets clear if his command over HUR got tangible results or if it is mostly smoke.

He might be laying the groundwork for a political career, assuming he'll live that long. There's few other reasons I can think of for an intelligence head to seek the limelight. Riling up the Russians, maybe, and drawing attention away from other people doing clandestine work.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Ynglaur posted:

RUSI's report indicated that Russia has made several adaptations to Ukrainian deep strike capabilities such as HIMARS. Everything from displacing further back (Division headquarters are typically 90+km from the front) to ground-based air defenses targeting the incoming missiles to GPS spoofing electronic warfare assets redicing accuracy to emplacing high-value assets in concrete buildings. All of those adaptations have their own costs, of course, but Russian command and control has been fairly solid since last fall.

There's a recent deep dive discussion about this and also the Ukrainian side. The focus is one lessons for the Indo-Pacific area, and it took place on Hawaii, in case you're wondering about the shirts and stage dressing.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1662119049612984320?s=20

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1662399743514005505

New springtime offensive propaganda dropped. Pretty intense. They've got a pretty good cinematography(?) team, which isn't surprising considering Zelensky's acting history. It looks like one of those Navy SEAL commercials, but with more holy war rhetoric.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

The holy war part is a little creepy, but what ever gets the job done I guess. It's incredible to live in a time where participants in a war release trailers for their upcoming offensives.

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To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer
It’s well produced but it’s no “Crimea is Ukrainian” video they posted last year.

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