(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Can someone tell me which are the violet dots and which are the purple dots? I'm guessing the magenta ones are violet?
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May 30, 2023 13:46
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KingColliwog posted:Can someone tell me which are the violet dots and which are the purple dots? I'm guessing the magenta ones are violet? Bigger dots: hit a house Smaller dots: crashed I feel your pain as someone slightly colourblind
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May 30, 2023 14:20
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a primate posted:Bigger dots: hit a house Thanks! I see colour just fine, but my problem is that to me, "violet" is just and old-timey way of saying "purple" so I have no loving idea which is which.
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May 30, 2023 15:12
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Mr. Sunshine posted:Thanks! I see colour just fine, but my problem is that to me, "violet" is just and old-timey way of saying "purple" so I have no loving idea which is which. Yeah same. I'm also not a native english speaker and to me purple and violet mean the same thing. Except violet might be a slightly paler shade of purple
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May 30, 2023 15:33
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KingColliwog posted:Yeah same. I'm also not a native english speaker and to me purple and violet mean the same thing. Except violet might be a slightly paler shade of purple They have different Pantone codes, so they are technically different colors if you're really into it. For casual use, they are interchangeable.
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May 30, 2023 15:47
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Why wouldn't they just use like red and yellow or something. Periwinkle are confirmed strikes, misses are in lilac
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May 30, 2023 16:56
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If you are not breaking out the munsell book you are not trying. Or getting your moneys worth.
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May 30, 2023 17:34
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I really have to question what value there is for Ukraine to drone strike civilian areas in Moscow. If anything it's probably just going to galvanize domestic support for Putin. If drone strikes on Kyiv aren't going to break the resolve of Ukrainian civilians I don't see how it would on civilians in Moscow.
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May 30, 2023 17:51
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Charliegrs posted:I really have to question what value there is for Ukraine to drone strike civilian areas in Moscow. If anything it's probably just going to galvanize domestic support for Putin. If drone strikes on Kyiv aren't going to break the resolve of Ukrainian civilians I don't see how it would on civilians in Moscow. Some speculation is that the drones were downed by EW before they were able to get to their actual targets. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1663531965469933568?cxt=HHwWgIC-pcjghpYuAAAA quote:This Ukrainian drone, of an unknown designation, is believed to have an operational range of 600-1000km and to carry a KZ-6 shaped charge (1.8KG of explosives), possibly with additional preformed fragments- sufficient for targeting objects such as easily flammable oil refineries. I don't really know if attacking Moscow will do anything positive either and I'm skeptical about this line of reasoning.
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May 30, 2023 18:00
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I don't condone them because I think striking civilian is always wrong and think they might be conterproductive but If they are rare it might help by just making the war real for russians which may increase unrest Russia is in a war of aggression and not a war for survival so they might not have the same resolve as Ukrainians They might just be doing their best to force russia to use as much of their AA as possible away from the battlefield
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May 30, 2023 18:03
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I hope the drones weren't deliberately targeted on apartment buildings. Yeah, Russia has been doing that to Ukraine, but I want Ukraine to be better. My guess is they probably weren't deliberately targeting them, for no other reason than a 1.8kg warhead seems way too small for indiscriminate terror bombing.
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May 30, 2023 18:17
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Striking civilian infrastructure is terrible. Perhaps the goal is to use it is as leverage to make Russia stop bombing apartment blocks in Ukraine but it's wrong nonetheless. They should be hitting airfields, oil storage and supply depots.
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May 30, 2023 18:20
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Reportedly the GPS signal around Moscow stopped working at the time of attack, as part of anti-drone countermeasures. There are videos from Yandex drivers flipping out, unable to navigate. It's possible that GPS guided drones are losing altitude or bearing in the wrong direction, thus hitting civilian buildings. Those buildings were clearly not the original target. Pantsir missiles are bigger than Ukrainian drones and have way higher payload. I shudder to think what would happen if one of those things hit a high rise building.
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May 30, 2023 18:26
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KingColliwog posted:I don't condone them because I think striking civilian is always wrong and think they might be conterproductive but It's definitely not a move I'd suggest, but after over a year of their civilians being bombed/murdered/raped/plundered it's no surprise that Ukraine strikes back in kind, either officially or unofficially. It's part of what sucks in war, it might be immoral to use a certain tool/weapon, but if the enemy is using it, you're at disadvantage not using it yourself. As I've said about previous attacks like the one on the Kremlin, it could be to alleviate fears Ukraine's supporters have about how Russia might escalate. So far escalation by Russia in response to just about anything has been more missile/drone strikes, which doesn't indicate any real progress on the escalation ladder everyone's concerned about. But it could also be to force those in Russia who think the war won't touch them to face facts. It's a coin flip if that galvanizes support or erodes it. But unlike the Pearl Harbor attack which galvanized US resolve and turned on the taps of the war industry, Russia is already nearly maxed out on the war economy and mobilization. So if it does increase the resolve of the common Russian towards the war, it won't make much difference practically for Ukraine. But if it does erode Putin's power base that could end the war sooner. It's a very messy and risky gamble, but Ukraine is still in a tight spot.
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May 30, 2023 18:26
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Bremen posted:I hope the drones weren't deliberately targeted on apartment buildings. Yeah, Russia has been doing that to Ukraine, but I want Ukraine to be better. These attacks have a very interesting profile. Done in daylight, massively increasing the intercept chance, small payloads with unclear targets. It's not clear that even the ones that hit targets were actually aiming for those targets. Looking forward to seeing more analysis on this. Seems like the primary objective of these attacks was visibility rather than the drone strikes themselves. Embarrassing the Kremlin? Tying up AD systems and stressing the command structure prior to the counter offensive? There's also talk of a potential false flag to provide cover for a full mobilisation in the coming weeks, so I guess we'll see if that pans out. Feels like Ukraine can (and probably will) perform much more effective and strategic strikes in future.
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May 30, 2023 18:30
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I think it’s also broadcasting the fact that targets within Moscow itself are within range and capability to be attacked. Sure, they sent some lovely small drones today. What happens when a juicy target presents itself outside of the city and the Ukrainians have something a little better at their disposal?
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May 30, 2023 18:37
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maybe the intent is in part to shape the media narrative in some way? though the coy response about ukraine not being involved mostly just leaves a vacuum of speculation, so at best shifting the topic from breathless coverage of the ever impending counter offensive
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May 30, 2023 18:40
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Icon Of Sin posted:I think it’s also broadcasting the fact that targets within Moscow itself are within range and capability to be attacked. Sure, they sent some lovely small drones today. What happens when a juicy target presents itself outside of the city and the Ukrainians have something a little better at their disposal? I've been seeing comments like this, and even a comparison to the Doolittle raid. And I mean, sure, it could work that way, but it could also build into Putin's message and harden Russia's resolve. Especially when there's a civilian apartment building hit by an enemy weapon to point at. It seems like a gamble on Ukraine's part. Humans are weird, and sometimes they're a lot less willing to back down in the face of threats than they are to, say, work an extra day a week because the government tells them it's important for a war effort that seems far away.
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May 30, 2023 18:42
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realistically it is extremely difficult to make a drone or missile or anything else that can navigate hundreds of miles, evade enemy AD, resist enemy jamming and other interference, and still precisely deliver a payload. far and away the most simple and most likely explanation is that their attack failed to hit whatever they were going for.Icon Of Sin posted:I think it’s also broadcasting the fact that targets within Moscow itself are within range and capability to be attacked. Sure, they sent some lovely small drones today. What happens when a juicy target presents itself outside of the city and the Ukrainians have something a little better at their disposal? yeah even as a likely failure of a strike it's still succesfull at communicating that and it's remarkable that something that conspicuous made it that deep into Russia yet again. I'm sure they would've loved to blow up the dome of the kremlin a second time, but even getting something to Moscow is pretty remarkable for what is likely 6 months of development. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:54 on May 30, 2023 |
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May 30, 2023 18:50
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Icon Of Sin posted:I think it’s also broadcasting the fact that targets within Moscow itself are within range and capability to be attacked. Sure, they sent some lovely small drones today. What happens when a juicy target presents itself outside of the city and the Ukrainians have something a little better at their disposal? It definitely begs the question how well is e.g. Russia's energy infrastructure protected. Transformer stations, oil refineries, pipeline pump stations. It wouldn't directly help Ukraine, but Russia has to spend resources to protect them or repair them.
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May 30, 2023 18:50
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Majority of drones were shot over elite (like, super-elite) suburbs, so such target choice is unlikely to make population afraid or angry. Solovyov appealing that Rublevka residents are Russians too is just pathetic. Provoking Russian officials who are dead set on NOTHING HAPPENING CITIZEN MOVE ALONG into losing their poo poo over questions is valuable though.
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May 30, 2023 18:57
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It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. This isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't think through their actions or anything, but there is a reason why the old saying goes that victory in war belongs not to the side that makes no mistakes, but rather to the side that makes the fewest mistakes. I don't think the raid is senseless, mind you - I feel like it's quite likely that part of the motivation is to try and divert AA defenses from the frontlines to Moscow. But I do think it's also quite possible that "Do you want to make Putin personally poo poo his pants when you set off a loud bang over Moscow y/n" is a pretty tempting motivation for a Ukrainian general, regardless of any military value involved.
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May 30, 2023 19:01
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:maybe the intent is in part to shape the media narrative in some way? More political pressure on Putin to pull back forces to defend Russia's borders rather than let his generals redeploy them to southern Ukraine in preparation for Ukrainian offensives. See also the cross border raids, minor counterattack around Bakhmut.
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May 30, 2023 19:03
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Tomn posted:It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. This isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't think through their actions or anything, but there is a reason why the old saying goes that victory in war belongs not to the side that makes no mistakes, but rather to the side that makes the fewest mistakes. yeah, good point. i mean moscow had something like 35 suicide drones over kyiv last night in a continuing aerial siege that even at its most effective didn't do much to slow the ukrainian war effort
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May 30, 2023 19:05
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Tomn posted:It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. This isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't think through their actions or anything, but there is a reason why the old saying goes that victory in war belongs not to the side that makes no mistakes, but rather to the side that makes the fewest mistakes. Yeah as much strategy as I considered for these strikes, if someone dropped missiles on any of my immediate family I would not be responding with any sort of concern for decorum or moderation. I would probably respond with pure unmitigated rage and cause as much damage as possible to whoever was responsible, which is why it's essential to have friends and allies to temper our impulses. A big part of Ukraine's success in this war has been their incredible level-headedness.
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May 30, 2023 19:08
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Tomn posted:It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. somehow the idea of an entire state military apparatus, one that's being heavily advised by the largest and best-funded military intelligence community on the globe, just havin' a whoopsie ADHD moment and launching a drone strike at moscow without thinking about what to target or if it'd have a purpose seems unlikely like, i dunno the actual reasoning, but that's the kind of thing that explains someone putting diesel into their gas tank on accident, not launching an air raid on the defended capitol of a nuclear power
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May 30, 2023 19:13
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yeah, looking at the available evidence it seems clear those drones where on their way somewhere else before EW confused them and they got shot down over Moscow
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May 30, 2023 19:27
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It's not like it even matters in the end, Putin won't stop sending tons of suicide drones and missiles to bomb civilians in Kiev just because some jammed drones crashed inside Moscow, they've been doing that for quite some time already. Bombing civilian houses with drones seems so utterly wasteful that it feels so extremely unlikely that they were the targets and not an nearby fuel depot or something similar.
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May 30, 2023 19:39
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The purpose of the attacks isn't the physical damage they inflict - the numbers and payload are inconsequential, and the majority are going to be intercepted or jammed so won't be able to hit any kind of target meaningfully. Instead its purely about the political and pyschological impact. The intent is to demonstrate that despite this being framed as a special military operation (ie: a colonial war in which the imperial core is completely safe and can go about its business with impunity), it is actually a real war, that is messy and bloody, and one in which the other side can strike back at the very heart of the Russian Empire. Its like the Doolittle raid or the attack on the US Embassy during the Tet Offensive in Vietnam - an attempt to bring the reality of the war home to the people of the other side. The objective is to influence Russian civilian morale, especially the 'depoliticised blob', which people like Vlad Vexler suggests is around 70% of the population. They might prefer to ignore the war because its an unwelcome and difficult subject to think about, but it becomes harder tp disregard it when they realise the war isn't just happening in a far off land, but is on their doorstep. It also helps make Russian leadership look weak by being unable to completely protect their capital, and thus gives them political incentives to redeploy fighter and ground-based air defences to protect major cities, rather than the front lines. With Ukraine having new strike capability in the form of Storm Shadows, and them eventually getting F16s, this is important. It's also heartening for Ukrainians living under bombardment, to see that their country is striking back, even in a limited way. As for hitting civilians - yeah that would not be a good thing. But I think Ukraine deserves the benefit of the doubt here though... There's a tendency on some folks' part to fuss about Ukraine's inevitable 'future' crimes - whilst ignoring previous and current ACTUAL Russian crimes. No one was killed or hurt here, and this is the first of such strikes - frankly they are operating at such distances, in the face of missile and EW defenses, that its going to be very hard to hit any kind of targets precisely - I highly doubt whatever they hit was their actual target.
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May 30, 2023 19:48
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Libluini posted:yeah, looking at the available evidence it seems clear those drones where on their way somewhere else before EW confused them and they got shot down over Moscow For real. C'mon people, Ukraine didn't fly a bunch of drones halfway across European Russia in order to crash them into random apartment buildings. They were obviously going after soft strategic targets like transformers, refineries, or fuel storage (or symbolic targets like putting some more scorch marks on the Kremlin) but none of them got through. It's not that complicated.
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May 30, 2023 19:58
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I'm kind of falling into Tomm's argument that this is just a badly-thought out operation, or an ineffectively-executed one. I can't for the life of me see any strategic or operational benefit to deliberately hitting civilian targets. The German will to fight was not broken by Dresden; the Japanese was not by Tokyo. I suppose you could argue that Serbia's will to fight in the 90s was broken by airpower hitting civilian power infrastructure, but I think it was more the threat of ground intervention. I just can't think of what Ukraine gains from hitting apartment buildings, while at the same time can see a lot of scenarios in which drones like this could accidentally hit them. GPS spoofing is reason #1. I think what this actually shows is that Moscow's air defenses are pretty good. They kept several dozen small UAVs from hitting anything of military significance. That is not a small operation. Imagine the Ukrainian GRU (I think that's what it's called?) has a fairly strong presence inside of Russia proper. Even with such a presence, getting 30+ drones aloft and moving is not something you can just do every single day. It takes a lot of people, resources, and risk. Ukraine has conducted a lot of smart, effective operations this war. I don't think this is one of them. It's okay, though: winning a war is rarely winning every single fight, and Ukraine probably mostly expended operational potential inside of Russia: a far lower cost than, say, large swaths of territory, or tens of thousands of civilians missing.
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May 30, 2023 20:01
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FirstnameLastname posted:somehow the idea of an entire state military apparatus, one that's being heavily advised by the largest and best-funded military intelligence community on the globe, just havin' a whoopsie ADHD moment and launching a drone strike at moscow without thinking about what to target or if it'd have a purpose seems unlikely State military apparatuses, even ones with world class funding, do silly (and sometimes quite expensive) poo poo all the time for reasons that in retrospect aren't as strong as they looked at the time. Even in (or arguably especially in) wartime. Every single military in every war has a litany of stupid poo poo they've done at one point or another for reasons that may or may not have seemed justified even at the time they happened, and I don't think the Ukrainians are any exception to that. Mark you, I'm not suggesting that the internal government proposal just went "Let's bomb Moscow lol," but it's entirely possible that whatever sound military reasons there may have been to go ahead with it may have been drowned out by an inner voice yelling "YEAH LET'S GET THOSE FUCKERS" that might have weighed a bit more heavily on the benefit side of the cost/benefit analysis than a completely detached outside observer might have done. Because, well, the Ukrainians are explicitly not detached outside observers. Who expects them to be?
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May 30, 2023 20:13
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Paladinus posted:Ani Lorak is a popular Ukrainian singer, who currently lives in Russia and is under sanctions in Ukraine since October last year. It's obviously a meme referencing her weak public response to the invasion, but a meme that only someone from Ukraine would employ, I imagine. She came 2nd in Eurovision in the early aughts, with the in hindsight comically presciently titled song 'Shady Lady'.
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May 30, 2023 20:31
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Chalks posted:These attacks have a very interesting profile. Done in daylight, massively increasing the intercept chance, small payloads with unclear targets. It's not clear that even the ones that hit targets were actually aiming for those targets. A message was sent, sender and recipient yet unknown. 
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May 30, 2023 20:33
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This day in stupid: https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/1663615880435990532?t=QrqhyLfmILcFwPW5nh8exw&s=19
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May 30, 2023 20:35
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Have there been any calculated guesses as to what the real target was, based on the flight path and the purple/violet dots where they were intercepted /crashed?
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May 30, 2023 20:39
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fatherboxx posted:This day in stupid: This tells us they’re going to likely double down on this attack during the next US election, but if she’s being mediated through the direct propaganda outlets it’ll probably be less effective.
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May 30, 2023 20:41
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Why would Tara Reade want to move to Russia? I don't see the connection...? Why would she be hanging out with spies?
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May 30, 2023 21:18
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Agronox posted:Why would Tara Reade want to move to Russia? I don't see the connection...? Why would she be hanging out with spies? She saw those ads promising cheap gas and family values
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May 30, 2023 21:35
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 14:14 |
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Agronox posted:Why would Tara Reade want to move to Russia? I don't see the connection...? Why would she be hanging out with spies? she's been regularly showing up on RT for a while and has been showing up at some, uh, questionable events  hard to say what it all means though, the message there is too subtle for me
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May 30, 2023 21:46
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