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Adenoid Dan posted:How much of the lead-crime link is actually just poor non-white people (the ones with by far the highest exposure) being over policed and crimes of poverty being the main ones we enforce? I don't think anyone assumed lead exposure produced general criminality- the concern was about much more acute neurological issues lead was known to cause. To my knowledge no one's gone around measuring childhood lead exposure in criminals to determine "yep, this one's full of lead", the theory is based on much more circumstantial evidence. It's very difficult to prove, but the circumstantial evidence is enough to make you wonder about how much something like that can gently caress up whole societies without being measurable on an individual level.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:32
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Adenoid Dan posted:How much of the lead-crime link is actually just poor non-white people (the ones with by far the highest exposure) being over policed and crimes of poverty being the main ones we enforce? The literature on lead effects virtually always includes controls for race, gender, education, and poverty, and often they just use homicides which I wouldn't call a crime of poverty. The big concern should be publication bias. But even with publication bias it seems apparent that people of all races get arrested less - and lead healthier and more fulfilling lives by almost any measure - when they haven't been dosed with a neurotoxin in their air and water until it fills their blood and bones. We're still working on getting lead out of the pipes in Chicago - still working as in barely started - and it's totally horrifying and depressing and enraging to think about how we. a bunch of alleged grown-up adults, can't come together to de-poison our drinking water. quote:To my knowledge no one's gone around measuring childhood lead exposure in criminals to determine "yep, this one's full of lead", There are multiple papers that basically do exactly this - they identify whether someone's lead testing levels are predictive of future incarceration when you control for race & socioeconomic background. They generally find that, even when you already know someone's race and economic background and gender, knowing how much lead was in their blood, even as a child or when they were in the womb, significantly improves predictions of whether they'll be arrested later on. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 05:33
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Civilized Fishbot posted:The literature on lead effects virtually always includes controls for race, gender, education, and poverty, and often they just use homicides which I wouldn't call a crime of poverty. The big concern should be publication bias. Yes, I think it's a huge issue, and I don't mean to downplay it, I'm just saying that a conspiracy theory about why otherwise-healthy Gen-Xers suddenly turn into pricks seems unreasonable. The idea that lead exposure influences crime rates makes sense; the idea that lead is leeching out of people's bones and making them go nuts when they get old, is slightly less reasonable especially in consideration of the fact there are several other more plausible explanations.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:40
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PT6A posted:Yes, I think it's a huge issue, and I don't mean to downplay it, I'm just saying that a conspiracy theory about why otherwise-healthy Gen-Xers suddenly turn into pricks seems unreasonable. The idea that lead exposure influences crime rates makes sense; the idea that lead is leeching out of people's bones and making them go nuts when they get old, is slightly less reasonable especially in consideration of the fact there are several other more plausible explanations. Yeah it's not a conspiracy theory to suggest that someone's mental condition is affected by whether they have grew up drinking and inhaling a neurotoxin. Of course just because we're talking about something real oesn't mean we're talking about something that instantly turns kind people into assholes. It's not werewolf juice, it's just another bale on the camel's back
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Jun 6, 2023 05:46
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Adenoid Dan posted:How much of the lead-crime link is actually just poor non-white people (the ones with by far the highest exposure) being over policed and crimes of poverty being the main ones we enforce? I'm skeptical on the lead-crime link, but the only way that makes sense is if you're asserting that the 1992-2017 era saw a strong nationwide drop in poverty and overpolicing of poor and minorities.
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Jun 6, 2023 05:52
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Crime is a complicated topic, affected by many things at many levels, and controlling for confounding can also be difficult depending on knowing what the confounders are and how they interact with whatever you're looking at. (My stats knowledge is quite rusty) Especially since what we want to know is whether it is a causal link.
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Jun 6, 2023 06:14
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It's really important that people recognize not only how detrimental the exposure to lead is, but also how prevalent. From basically the 1920s until the late 1970s, gasoline was by-and-large leaded, which allowed leaded exhaust to deposit lead in soil at noticeable concentrations wherever internal combustion engines were used. So it was not just the exhaust that people would directly inhale, but also the soil that children played in, could have gardens in, turned into parks, etc. Up until 1978, it was used in paint, and even after 1978, companies were allowed to deplete existing stockpiles of paint, which meant that it actually kept being used until the 1980s, so toys, walls, furniture, school desks, food equipment, etc. So unless these items were disposed of and/or remediated in a way to remove or encapsulate, it's still an exposure source. Lead was allowed to be used in piping until 1986 when banned via SDWA Amendment, and this simply banned production and installation of new piping, obviously, with existing piping allowed to remain. Water chemistry changes, temperature changes, etc., all play a role; Flint's issues occurred due to water source changes and the resulting changes in corrosivity, pH, etc., but a more silent, obscure form is the impact that hot water has on lead piping and lead-soldered copper piping, since it facilities greater dissolution and exposure. As it is, lead is still allowed in certain exposure pathways now; residential and commercial water service lines as already discussed, or for example,as a fuel additive for propeller-driven and turbo prop planes, so anyone that lives near an airport, small or large, is still likely to receive environmental exposure. And while lead's half life in blood and soft tissues is relatively short, it's half life in bone is on the order of decades, so even if someone can eliminate all exposure pathways, it would still take some time for the overall concentration of lead in the body to decrease. So given the timeline of everything as well as what is still allowed/in-use, and with people's love for using the old appurtenances, doing the cheapest thing possible for their homes, etc., I could definitely see the historically most-exposed communities and demographics still having neurological impacts so long after their original high exposures.
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Jun 6, 2023 06:21
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I don't think anyone is doubting the lasting neurological effects of lead, fwiw.
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Jun 6, 2023 06:25
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I don't think there's any race among whom most today would know about a professor whose biggest presence in popular culture was small features in the second two Matrix movies and whose current project is a Patreon-exclusive podcast. He doesn't have nearly the recognition his thought and talents warrant, that just gives him room to grow if he could ever get some sunlight. LOL if you think black people don't know who Cornel West is.
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Jun 6, 2023 06:54
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PT6A posted:It can absolutely happen, and it might explain some things, but I'm telling you that if a person can write a fully coherent screed for the Guardian on why trans people are going to ruin society, the problem is not their executive function. Executive function doesn’t work like that. There are plenty of folks on the forums with executive function differences. It’s not any thing to do with if one can write a argument.
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Jun 6, 2023 07:23
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The first time I really saw Cornell West do anything was on an episode of Real Time when him and some British or Australian dude become best friends instantly and were just dumpstering the rest of the panel.
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Jun 6, 2023 08:03
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apparently Cornel West published a WSJ op-ed in May congratulating DeSantis for his "Revolutionary Defense of the Classics", saying 'Promoting the Western canon shouldn't be only a Republican talking point.' if one wonders why this is Cornel West's priority topic when discussing the state of education in Florida, it seems that he's closely associated with the 'Classical Learning Test'. The CLT avows itself to be a 'classical Christian curriculum' and is designed as an alternative to the SAT. so yeah i have my doubts about Cornel West
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Jun 6, 2023 09:42
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Classical Learning and Classics and everything about it is long into the process of cooptation into "trad" and "tradwest" repackaging of christian nationalism and white supremacy It's already resulted in the bizarre condition of basically all traditionalist and classical architecture praising accounts being a collective of thinly veiled nazis
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Jun 6, 2023 11:22
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Killer robot posted:I'm skeptical on the lead-crime link The way we're going to know about this one way or another is to wait and observe long term trends in geriatric care for gen X-ers. They have the most latent lead poisoning by far, and the disparity in exposure among that population is so strong that you could probably retroactively map redlining onto it.
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Jun 6, 2023 11:36
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Eiba posted:My understanding is the idea behind lead causing crime is that crime mysteriously dropped in a lot of places with a lot of different policies all over the world at slightly different times about 20 years after that location banned leaded gasoline. Even ethnically homogeneous places with very different policing tactics. Yeah lead clearly has an effect but it's not the only factor. I personally think that Roe v. Wade (1973) may have had more an impact on crime dropping in the US in the 90s than some other factors. Not exactly a 1:1 comparison but see Romania's 1966 abortion ban and subsequent 1989 revolution. Bellmaker fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 12:27
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Jaxyon posted:LOL if you think black people don't know who Cornel West is.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:05
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Kavros posted:Classical Learning and Classics and everything about it is long into the process of cooptation into "trad" and "tradwest" repackaging of christian nationalism and white supremacy It really sucks to be the guy who just genuinely likes a lot of what's considered the classics. Also being the guy who's really interested in ancient Rome. You just have your normal hobby, something that isn't inherently Naziish at all, trying to interact with others who have the same hobby only to find out like a 3rd of them are really loud Nazis or fascists. It's not like it's everyone but it's a big enough thing that it makes you uncomfortable being a part of those communities sometimes.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:09
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Classical History undergrad checking in. Yep. Egyptology generally escapes pretty unscathed from that group, but we have a different racial superiority group kicking around Karnak.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:18
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BrainDance posted:You just have your normal hobby, something that isn't inherently Naziish at all, trying to interact with others who have the same hobby only to find out like a 3rd of them are really loud Nazis or fascists.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:19
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Mellow Seas posted:But enough about PC gaming... PC Gaming doesnt even seem that bad to me now because I got into Smash for a while. Like, the city's team going around the country for tournaments. I thought, there's no way the community can really be that bad it's just a few people that are probably terrible but 9 out of 10 are probably normal guys. No it's a loving trainwreck it's bad holy poo poo it's bad.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:27
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BrainDance posted:
Friend of mine is a professional archaeologist which living where I live means digging up various civil war battlefields all the time. Yeaaaah he has to deal with some poo poo
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Jun 6, 2023 13:39
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BrainDance posted:PC Gaming doesnt even seem that bad to me now because I got into Smash for a while. Like, the city's team going around the country for tournaments. I want these deets, I haven't been to a smash event since college and was turned off by the toxicity back then even as a lovely edgelord 18 year old
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Jun 6, 2023 13:42
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Killer robot posted:I'm skeptical on the lead-crime link, but the only way that makes sense is if you're asserting that the 1992-2017 era saw a strong nationwide drop in poverty and overpolicing of poor and minorities. I encourage you to actually go read the articles about it. quote:Put all this together and you have an astonishing body of evidence. We now have studies at the international level, the national level, the state level, the city level, and even the individual level. Groups of children have been followed from the womb to adulthood, and higher childhood blood lead levels are consistently associated with higher adult arrest rates for violent crimes. All of these studies tell the same story: Gasoline lead is responsible for a good share of the rise and fall of violent crime over the past half century. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ The core of the theory is that lead specifically damages the impulse control centers of the brain, and lack of impulse control leads to higher crime rates. quote:One set of scans found that lead exposure is linked to production of the brain’s white matter—primarily a substance called myelin, which forms an insulating sheath around the connections between neurons. Lead exposure degrades both the formation and structure of myelin, and when this happens, says Kim Dietrich, one of the leaders of the imaging studies, “neurons are not communicating effectively.” Put simply, the network connections within the brain become both slower and less coordinated. Note that this is not a "boomers drank lead and that's why your dad watches Fox News now" theory; it's specifically about crime, not bigotry. I don't think we have data on the "lead made boomers" theory.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:44
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I dunno, "a degradation of impulse control" would go a long way to explain why so many of them became so much more out-and-out mask-off bigots rather than "bigotry carefully hidden in dogwhistles".
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Jun 6, 2023 13:51
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Randalor posted:I dunno, "a degradation of impulse control" would go a long way to explain why so many of them became so much more out-and-out mask-off bigots rather than "bigotry carefully hidden in dogwhistles". It's been a trope for some time the older people get the less of a poo poo they give I'm open to lead being one reason out of many for the supposed increase in behaviors being discussed among older folks, but I think there's a forest being missed for the trees. Grandma and grandpa were probably always racist and hateful, but you never noticed because they didn't talk about it much because why would they? Almost everyone on the TV used to be white, dress the right way, etc. etc. The neighborhood didn't use to have those kind of folks, etc. etc. All was right with the world. Then times change and pass them by, they get scared and angry and lash out. Trump using his bully pulpit to toss aside the decades of dogwhistles the GOP carefully cultivated means grammy and pop pop get to say those things in public now, too.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:57
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Randalor posted:I dunno, "a degradation of impulse control" would go a long way to explain why so many of them became so much more out-and-out mask-off bigots rather than "bigotry carefully hidden in dogwhistles". Yeah it's possible but we don't have data for bigotry the same way we do for crime rates.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:58
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Gatts posted:https://twitter.com/cornelwest/status/1665743761551548416?s=46 What's the truth about Ukraine he's alluding to? Website is pretty light on info.
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Jun 6, 2023 14:02
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Judgy Fucker posted:It's been a trope for some time the older people get the less of a poo poo they give One that goes back millennia
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Jun 6, 2023 14:11
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The site advocates for ending NATO, so it’s not hard to guess.
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Jun 6, 2023 14:12
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Jaxyon posted:LOL if you think black people don't know who Cornel West is. Yeah that's what I think. That's obviously not a fault of him or anyone who doesn't know about him, just the reality that he's not at the peak of his popularity and that peak wasn't high. He had a minor role in thr Matrix sequels, he appeared on some relatively obscure albums in the early 2010s, now he has a podcast on Patreon. This isn't how you get to 50% name recognition in any demographic. If you could show me wrong here it'd make my day though. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Jun 6, 2023 |
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Jun 6, 2023 14:12
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I know Cornell West from Astrid Taylor's Examined Life, as well as Zizek. I learned from his Wikipedia page later that he had a few lines in the Matrix sequels. I can't read much on West's website or watch his videos, but his call to dissolve NATO is couched in generic anti-military language that calls for the withdrawal of all US foreign military presence.
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Jun 6, 2023 15:20
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A few well-meaning white liberals will probably confuse him with Skip Gates at some point.
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Jun 6, 2023 15:27
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I agree with him on NATO. It’s wishful thinking that an empire would tear itself down, but it would be nice for once if world-spanning Anglocentric empires did that. I didn’t ask to fund the insistence that the US be in charge of the global hegemon and it would be nice if we could spend money on other things without having to do whatever atrocities we will do in the throes of decline.
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Jun 6, 2023 15:37
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SourKraut posted:As it is, lead is still allowed in certain exposure pathways now; residential and commercial water service lines as already discussed, or for example,as a fuel additive for propeller-driven and turbo prop planes, so anyone that lives near an airport, small or large, is still likely to receive environmental exposure. Partially correct. Leaded fuel is still used for AVGAS, which is used to power some but not all propeller-driven aircraft (most of those with piston engines -- usually smaller aircraft). Turboprops have turbine engines, they run on lead-free jet fuel just like jets do, and some piston-engine aircraft also run on jet fuel (not many, to be fair, but they do exist). Some piston-engine aircraft can run on regular motor gas, too. In the past year, a drop-in replacement for leaded AVGAS (100LL grade fuel) has been approved, and it's just a matter of sorting out the logistics for the full transition to unleaded fuels, which is something that we in the industry are extremely eager about because, obviously, lead is bad news.
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Jun 6, 2023 15:46
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Gros Tarla posted:What's the truth about Ukraine he's alluding to? Website is pretty light on info. It sounds like he’s adopting the leftmost position on Ukraine, joining such luminaries as… *checks notes* Donald Trump.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:05
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https://twitter.com/micahinATL/status/1666013776343121920 This was after hundreds of people spammed public comment before the vote. It took 15 hours to get through all of the public comments, and early this morning they voted to fund it, 11-4. There were 4 people, obviously planted, on the public comments that approved of Cop City. They were moved to the front of the line. Atlanta City Council also tweeted a video of those 4 speakers showing how cool and good public support is for it. They deleted it about an hour later after they got dragged for it.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:10
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selec posted:I agree with him on NATO. It’s wishful thinking that an empire would tear itself down, but it would be nice for once if world-spanning Anglocentric empires did that. I didn’t ask to fund the insistence that the US be in charge of the global hegemon and it would be nice if we could spend money on other things without having to do whatever atrocities we will do in the throes of decline. NATO is a mutual defense treaty, not a vehicle for empire building. We are also currently in a situation where one of the countries who had been begging to be let in for the last decade is in a hot war with a neighbor looking to do some empire building with a heaping side dish of genocide. Add to that China making grabby gestures at Taiwan and you have some very good examples of why the idea that we can just keep out of it is ridiculous.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:19
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Zapf Dingbat posted:https://twitter.com/micahinATL/status/1666013776343121920 I'd be madder at them if we didn't have recent examples of, say, cops threatening their mayor's families and stuff like that.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:21
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Digamma-F-Wau posted:from what I've heard it's like, the cutoff date for when people tend to get more conservative as they age is like smack dab partway through Gen X, meaning that older Gen Xers are getting more conservative as they age while younger Gen Xers are like Millennials and Gen Z where they aren't. The result is that if you were to look at Gen X as a whole, it would come off as them getting more conservative as they age but at a far slower rate than the Baby Boomers Gen X as a cohort didn’t have far to fall.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:28
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yronic heroism posted:Gen X as a cohort didn’t have far to fall. Gen Xers still had affordable housing options. Cities were still rebuilding from the 60s and 70s white flight.
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Jun 6, 2023 16:36
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