(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762?t=GXrL5wM9pdupHMR_Jeb3Gg&s=19 One point to note from that thread specifically: https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665981797744648192?s=20 This is of course from TASS and features claims made by Russian authorities so preparations may very well not be as thorough as they claim. However, the claim is that Crimea has reservoirs topped up enough to last two years without water from the canal if need be, meaning that if true then Russian-held Crimea shouldn't suffer that greatly in the short term from the dam being blown (long-term they may have difficulties filling the reservoirs again when they run out). Worth noting that the article specifically mentions that Crimea prepared for this "in case the Ukrainian authorities implement their threats and blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant痴 dam." While I wouldn't necessarily rule out the dam going being a result of negligence it does seem increasingly like the Russians tend to benefit more and suffer less from the dam going, and having specifically prepared to mitigate the worst effects on Russia does add what you might call a finger of suspicion there.
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 20:24 |
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Please check the date of video, it took me 5 seconds to click
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:08
|
|
|
TescoBag posted:There are also reports of an explosion so big it broke windows up to 80km away in the early morning. That doesn't sound like an accident. Seems very likely to be a misrepresentation and what they meant is windows rattling/trembling. It takes a lot to break a window that far away. "Trembling" is actually what this The Economist story is saying (paywalled but the 80km quote is in the freely visible intro): quote:THE EXPLOSIONS in the early morning were so strong that windows trembled a full 80km away.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:10
|
|
|
The usual suspects are of course convinced that Ukraine is responsible because the highly professional and competent Russian military wouldn't mess up their own fortifications this way and also would never willingly destroy civilian infrastructure whereas Ukraine has been shelling civilians literally nonstop since 2014 and are the only ones who have committed warcrimes so far.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:17
|
|
|
Zat posted:Seems very likely to be a misrepresentation and what they meant is windows rattling/trembling. It takes a lot to break a window that far away. Hey, thanks for this correction. Windows trembling that far away is still a hell of an explosion!
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:19
|
|
|
have they found out exactly who blew up that undersea pipeline yet?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:19
|
|
|
LifeSunDeath posted:have they found out exactly who blew up that undersea pipeline yet? A boot did it
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:24
|
|
|
karthun posted:A boot did it Das boot did it
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:30
|
|
|
Comstar posted:If Russia had not invaded, the Dam would be there. While I don't disagree, this is a weak argument. You could just as well argue that the dam only broke because Ukraine didn't immediately surrender.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:46
|
|
|
You can make a lot of arguments, but idk if blaming the invaded country would gain as much traction
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 14:50
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:While I don't disagree, this is a weak argument. You could just as well argue that the dam only broke because Ukraine didn't immediately surrender. And if that darn fish never came out of the ocean, there would be no war! This is 100% on Russia.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 15:33
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:While I don't disagree, this is a weak argument. You could just as well argue that the dam only broke because Ukraine didn't immediately surrender. The dam was under Russian control (they even consider it part of the country according to the sham referendum) - if they allowed criminal negligence to the point that it broke (or deliberately allowed the overflow), thats not much better than just blowing it up.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 15:33
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:While I don't disagree, this is a weak argument. You could just as well argue that the dam only broke because Ukraine didn't immediately surrender. The dam only broke because the nefarious Ukrainian constructed it! Are you seriously unable to detect the thrust of all those points? That the dam would be standing if Russia had adhered to the international norms concerning state sovereignty? Its not a list of every "but for" cause in the chain of destruction. Hth. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 15:44
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:If they blew it up on purpose without calculating the impact, that would be an act of historical incompetence, a whole new level of gently caress up. They blew it up on purpose without caring for the impact, because causing damage is the goal.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 16:15
|
|
|
Coincidentally, WaPo just released an article about US Intelligence concerning Ukrainian plot to destroy Nordstream 1. Although the plot information did not align completely with the sabotage, it did bear many resemblances. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/ I知 not being hit with a paywall and I知 bad at using the SA mobile to create the quote sections like some of you all do when quoting articles so I知 just posting the link for now. If others get hit with a paywall blocker, I値l come back and add more summaries when I check the thread later.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 16:16
|
|
|
I have heard some military analysts talk about the military consequences of the flooding. One said that this affects both sides equally, because Russian defensive front positions were also flooded - the left bank of Dnipro is very shallow. But I think in the short term that would be an okay cost to pay for making a flank attack across the river much more unlikely. So much more unlikely that Russian army can focus its reserves on a lot shorter front than previously. The water will soon start receding, but the low steppe lands will be a quagmire for a long time, almost like it was rasputitsa once more. The defensive works will take a lot of effort to get cleaned, though. Anti-tank ditches and regular trenches are filled with water and anything else that the flood wave brings. Many will simply collapse into a mud pit. Mine fields closest to the river are the most unfortunate side of this: mines can be under a mudslide, they can be unearthed, or they could be be gone just anywhere.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 16:25
|
|
|
SmokingFrog0641 posted:Coincidentally, WaPo just released an article about US Intelligence concerning Ukrainian plot to destroy Nordstream 1. Although the plot information did not align completely with the sabotage, it did bear many resemblances. Edit: and, of course, if it's even true in the first place.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 16:26
|
|
|
An interesting video from December last year has surfaced. A Ukrainian youtuber trolls/educates Russian Z-patriots on Russian chatroulette and uploads video to his channel. In this particular video, he pretends to be from DNR and randomly connects with two Bashkir guys who say they are Wagner soldiers and just came back from the Kherson region. On timestamp they talk about how they will soon be deployed near Kakhovka and are tasked to install mines on the dam to later explode it and drown Ukrainians on the other bank. They also say it's supposed to happen January 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arUHJzXCfsU&t=383s Obviously, some random guys, nothing happened in January, and the tg posts about mines are from October, but it at least shows that regular soldiers, even if they lied about being personally involved, had internalised by then the idea that the command want the dam gone at some point.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 16:35
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:The real question about those sorts of articles is who leaked it and why. I'm not even sure this matters at this point. Wasn't Nordstream shut off as retribution for the price caps on Russian oil? I guess it makes Ukraine look less sympathetic, but it's hardly as if it was an unthinkable option for them. That is, if you can even trust random discord users to be disclosing information. The real question is how does this information conflict with BootGate. Ghetto SuperCzar fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:02
|
|
|
Ghetto SuperCzar posted:I'm not even sure this matters at this point. Wasn't Nordstream shut off as retribution for the price caps on Russian oil? I guess it makes Ukraine look less sympathetic, but it's hardly as if it was an unthinkable option for them. That is, if you can even trust random discord users to be disclosing information. Oh, I didn't realize it was from the ANG clown leaks, not from some three-letter agency goon going to a journalist with "secrets" they have no way to verify but they publish anyway because it's technically true that "intelligence sources say".
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:07
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:The real question about those sorts of articles is who leaked it and why. It痴 not clear where US intelligence received information from their Ukrainian sources, but the US intel is from the discord leaks. Edit: Ah Czar already covered it was from the discord saga 2nd edit: WaPo also notes that, iirc, CIA had reservations about the source of the information because they didn稚 have a previous track record of providing substantiated information. The main thrust of the current article may be that the information provided is appearing to be correlated by information being discovered as part of the investigation by European agencies. The information also alluded to a different date for the plan, which may have preceded the actions to cut the gas off, and had only mentioned pipeline 1 as opposed to both. Just more interesting information about the event as it comes out if it痴 a thread anyone is still following. SmokingFrog0641 fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:10
|
|
|
Is this whole dam terrorism going to "allow" the world to escalate? I'd love to see some much more serious financial and trade sanctions, and I'd also love to see the dam break when it comes to western military aid.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:14
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Oh, I didn't realize it was from the ANG clown leaks, not from some three-letter agency goon going to a journalist with "secrets" they have no way to verify but they publish anyway because it's technically true that "intelligence sources say". Yeah it's a little surprising that this information seems to have come out so late in those leaks, but supposedly thats their source. Definitely take it with a grain of salt though, because it's from a third party that hadn't yet been identified with the leaks (and I'd be super shocked if it was already an identified user who likely already has the CIA up their rear end). It would make sense from a Ukrainian POV though. Russia had turned it off, and was clearly using it as leverage to remove sanctions. Which is why, if the leak is true, Germany likely didn't end up caring if it was Ukraine. The timing of the release is definitely suspicious though.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:16
|
|
|
CNN reports that the Russian military positions on the other side of the bank which had been attacking and shelling Kherson were flooded and overrun and they did not appear to have advanced warning this would happen. I know they were also told this was a "training exercise" but I would assume at least they would evacuate their positions.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:20
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Is this whole dam terrorism going to "allow" the world to escalate? I'd love to see some much more serious financial and trade sanctions, and I'd also love to see the dam break when it comes to western military aid. I'm of the opinion that we should just send in the F-35s, piloted by western pilots and maintenance crews. It's not like there isn't precedent for this, there were unofficial Soviet pilots in the Vietnam war. If we do this quickly enough, we might just avoid the nuclear power plant being exploded by Russians for whatever short term military advantage they can get. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) enigma74 fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Jun 6, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:22
|
|
|
Sergg posted:CNN reports that the Russian military positions on the other side of the bank which had been attacking and shelling Kherson were flooded and overrun and they did not appear to have advanced warning this would happen. I know they were also told this was a "training exercise" but I would assume at least they would evacuate their positions. They weren't told to not dig trenches in Chernobyl's red forest back when it was still their regular, much better trained military units, it would not surprise me if Russia blew the dam and realized afterwards "Oh right, our guys are in the lowest areas downstream. Oops." This move sabotages Crimea's future, which was like half the point of this whole war. The Russian state doesn't care about anyone.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:25
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Is this whole dam terrorism going to "allow" the world to escalate? I'd love to see some much more serious financial and trade sanctions, and I'd also love to see the dam break when it comes to western military aid.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:28
|
|
|
SmokingFrog0641 posted:Coincidentally, WaPo just released an article about US Intelligence concerning Ukrainian plot to destroy Nordstream 1. Although the plot information did not align completely with the sabotage, it did bear many resemblances. Welp, that settles it. It clearly was the perfidious Poles, striking at both the hated Germans and despised Russians with one fell, dastardly blow, all the while insidiously preparing to pin the blame on the poor, innocent Ukrainians.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:34
|
|
|
enigma74 posted:I'm of the opinion that we should just send in the F-35s, piloted by western pilots and maintenance crews. It's not like there isn't precedent for this, there were unofficial Soviet pilots in the Vietnam war. Your opinion would mean starting World War 3.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:34
|
|
|
CSM posted:NATO pilots flying NATO jets to attack Russia would be an obvious declaration of war by NATO. The counterpoint is that it has happened in the past and didn't cause WW3. The Soviet Union did precisely that in both Vietnam and Korea. Are the rules different now? (I'm not actually advocating for this, I just think that while it would be an obvious massive escalation, it would not be a direct declaration of war.)
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:40
|
|
|
SmokingFrog0641 posted:Coincidentally, WaPo just released an article about US Intelligence concerning Ukrainian plot to destroy Nordstream 1. Although the plot information did not align completely with the sabotage, it did bear many resemblances. Very interesting. Ukrainian source gives detailed plan (location, personnel, method) to European intelligence agency. information is shared with the Americans and, more importantly, the Germans. Plan is carried out in similar fashion via a German port a few months later. Apparently, Zelenskyy didnｴt know about the initial plan but surely must have been informed by the Europeans or Americans at some point before September. This would mean that the German and Ukrainian governments do not have a problem with Zaluzhnyiy going rogue and destroying German infrastructure and getting away with it. Incredibly hard to believe.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:43
|
|
|
CSM posted:NATO pilots flying NATO jets to attack Russia would be an obvious declaration of war by NATO. Citation please. Because every time this has happened in the past between nuclear armed superpowers, the result was not WW3. It is far more likely to be de-escalated, with Russia accepting the strategic loss to avoid a worse outcome. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:44
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:The messaging from Russia is kind of weird. The only official line is that Ukrainians did it, I guess, but not a lot is said about how and why. Meanwhile, apparently just a week ago Putin signed a law on 'Procedure for regulating relations in the sphere of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities and safety of hydraulic structures in the DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions'. That law, among other things, suspends all technical investigations. can you link the source on this please?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:52
|
|
|
I mean the Nordstream story (if you consider it credible) does kinda raise doubts about how extreme Ukrainian military ops can get. Some of their public facing stunts are kinda risky and of dubious value to me already (ex Russian volunteer squad, Moscow drone attacks) and if they are also planning ops like Nordstream and political assassinations, it kinda raises doubts about what Ukraine thinks is acceptable on the risk/reward level. Would it be extreme enough to do something like blow up the dam and cause massive civilian damage to spite Crimea in the far future? Uh, maybe not, but each crazy stunt they pull weakens their credibility of not doing crazy things to some level.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:53
|
|
|
The truth is this isn't a video game where there are hard coded rules where, oh, trespassing with your units is just a relationship malus but attacking their forces will result in a war starting. It's really a matter of escalations and how the other side reacts where the rules are never quite clear. And yeah, sending "volunteer" forces with obviously foreign equipment that has maybe had the local flag hastily painted over yours has been done before and not started a war, so I suspect it probably wouldn't here. But "probably" is a scary word considering the stakes, so I can understand why the west has chosen to avoid doing that even though it's been done before.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:54
|
|
|
CSM posted:NATO pilots flying NATO jets to attack Russia would be an obvious declaration of war by NATO. Yes and I must remind everyone that Clancychat is still looked down upon here
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:55
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:The counterpoint is that it has happened in the past and didn't cause WW3. The Soviet Union did precisely that in both Vietnam and Korea. Are the rules different now? This topic came up a couple of times already. A no-fly zone over Ukraine would mean destroying radar and air defense installation inside internationally recognized Russian territory. Nothin like that ever happened during the cold war to my knowledge. It would be a massive escalation step and it's hard to predict how Russia would react(or other nations like China for that matter). We could be looking at a declara of martial law and full mobilization in Russia while China ships thousands of air defense systems and tanks to them. e: ^^^^^ didn't see you post fatherbox, I'm done with the subject
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 17:57
|
|
|
SmokingFrog0641 posted:Coincidentally, WaPo just released an article about US Intelligence concerning Ukrainian plot to destroy Nordstream 1. Although the plot information did not align completely with the sabotage, it did bear many resemblances. Very interesting timing on that release  Almost like something needed a distraction, eh?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 18:05
|
|
|
The simplest answer is that Russia had intel that the Ukraine was planning an offensive in the area with the potential to cut off or retake Crimea in the long run, so they did the only thing they could do in the short term, which was blow the dam to make a large area impassable to armored columns. This makes even more sense given that Ukraine does not have the capacity to air drop. What makes it bizarre is the long term implication, already noted, to Crimea's water supply which seemed at first glance one of the obvious strategic incentives to invade officially in the first place. Russia has completely lost direction and seems simply to be doing everything in their power to save face and not lose any more ground at any seeming cost, which is slightly alarming.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 18:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 20:24 |
|
|
Huggybear posted:The simplest answer is that Russia had intel that the Ukraine was planning an offensive in the area with the potential to cut off or retake Crimea in the long run, so they did the only thing they could do in the short term, which was blow the dam to make a large area impassable to armored columns. This makes even more sense given that Ukraine does not have the capacity to air drop. What makes it bizarre is the long term implication, already noted, to Crimea's water supply which seemed at first glance one of the obvious strategic incentives to invade officially in the first place. Russia has completely lost direction and seems simply to be doing everything in their power to save face and not lose any more ground at any seeming cost, which is slightly alarming. Didn't Crimea spent 9 years without that "water supply"?
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2023 18:25
|
|