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fatherboxx)
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WarpedLichen posted:Yeah, it's weird that the losses were on the Tokmak axis which is also where Ukraine has stated to be making gains. Not weird at all. There's no obvious soft spots, so any gains are going to be costly. The harder they push any one spot, the more gains and the more casualties. And there's a consensus that Tokmak is the biggest thrust so far.
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Jun 9, 2023 23:24
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I wonder if Ukraine is using the MICLICs they got sent last year https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1589269985838632963?t=biSwxgwlDKO-1b9d-jLexw&s=19 . Mechanical breaching with a plow SUCKS compared to explosive breaching. Then again, they may have already used them all up.
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Jun 9, 2023 23:25
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Dandywalken posted:"The Ukrainians are apparently determined to continue feeding their men and NATO's armor into this new Zaporozhye meat-grinder. And, as widely predicted by many, neither the German Leopard 2A6 nor the American M2 Bradleys are a match for Russian firepower. This is a massacre." I said more neutral, but yeah, he's obviously an orc/vatnik. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 9, 2023 23:28
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does anyone have a link to a good explainer on local objectives on the southern front. obviously something like melitopol is the big operational objective, but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front
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Jun 9, 2023 23:29
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front I think that is precisely the UAF’s intent.
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Jun 9, 2023 23:43
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mlmp08 posted:I think that is precisely the UAF’s intent. Yeah, right now they're just grinding on multiple points to see which one will give. There is no preferred point of attack.
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Jun 9, 2023 23:46
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:does anyone have a link to a good explainer on local objectives on the southern front. obviously something like melitopol is the big operational objective, but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front  Tokmak is a commonly mentioned goal for Ukraine.
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Jun 10, 2023 00:03
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Don't forget that there's also that weird counter offensive in south Bakhmut for whatever reason.
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Jun 10, 2023 00:08
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WarpedLichen posted:Don't forget that there's also that weird counter offensive in south Bakhmut for whatever reason. Threatening to retake the only Russian victory in their last 6 months is a finger in the eye for Russia. Obviously, the land itself isn't important but high command might irrationally reinforce it.
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Jun 10, 2023 00:25
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WarpedLichen posted:Yeah, it's weird that the losses were on the Tokmak axis which is also where Ukraine has stated to be making gains. This is literally one company worth of hardware. I would expect Ukraine to lose at least 10 times this to force the line, and quite possibly more. You take casualties when you attack fortified positions. GhostofJohnMuir posted:does anyone have a link to a good explainer on local objectives on the southern front. obviously something like melitopol is the big operational objective, but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front Look at the map of railroads in Ukraine. Taking Tokmak cuts the east-west overland connection in the south.
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Jun 10, 2023 00:46
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Tuna-Fish posted:
Sadly Russia knows that, too.
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Jun 10, 2023 00:55
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Has Ukraine had any luck with western fighter/attack aircraft support? I'm assuming they are not launching objectives without at least the continuation of what appears to be a stalemate in the air. Other than Mi8s lobbing rockets and flying down highways NOE. I still remember how shocked I was at Russia's complete incapacity to quickly establish air superiority in an all out offensive against p2p enemy and former ally. I cannot think of even one thing they have done that is strategically sound or superior, other than waging an effective propaganda war to convince their population that they are doing the right thing
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Jun 10, 2023 02:26
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the talk of f-16s from western leaders is getting more and more frequent and less tentative. it seems to be a question of when and how many, not if. like the abrams, any deliveries would be too late to affect the current offensive, and there are questions about how much impact old f-16s will have on the overall situation
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Jun 10, 2023 02:49
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And are they mothballed? How hard is it to unmothball a fighter jet. Let alone train a pilot to fly one. And why the intense focus on the F16? Is it just because lots of NATO nations flew them so they are widely available still? I don't think being old is that much of an issue, the F16 is still a pretty formidable and versatile aircraft. The F4 was around for 40 years in its various iterations in the USAF.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:08
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Huggybear posted:And are they mothballed? How hard is it to unmothball a fighter jet. Let alone train a pilot to fly one. And why the intense focus on the F16? Is it just because lots of NATO nations flew them so they are widely available still? Most countries that have F-16s are in the process of replacing them with F-35s, so there's a whole bunch available. Getting them to Ukraine and getting pilots trained will take a while. I wouldn't expect to see any before the fall, maybe not until next year.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:13
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Huggybear posted:And are they mothballed? How hard is it to unmothball a fighter jet. Let alone train a pilot to fly one. If F-16s happen, set your calendar; they likely wouldn’t be operational anywhere within a year, maybe longer.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:16
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The pilots aren’t as much of an issue as the ground crews and maintenance. As long as someone is qualified in another airframe you can get someone trained in another in weeks if need be. The big stumbling point is all the support people which need a lot of training, especially the maintainers. It is a big difference between working on a Western airframe compared to an Eastern Bloc. By all reports the Ukrainians are fast learners but it is a staggering amount of knowledge to attain.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:19
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Djarum posted:The pilots aren’t as much of an issue as the ground crews and maintenance. As long as someone is qualified in another airframe you can get someone trained in another in weeks if need be. Why not try a "Flying Tigers" style "volunteer" group of F-16 mechanics late of the USAF? No different than the volunteer soldier groups and certainly not as provocative as the Little Green Men the Russians have sent to Ukraine, so they can just shut up.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:41
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dumby posted:I said more neutral, but yeah, he's obviously an orc/vatnik. The guy is on record stating that Russia is dealing devastating blows to not just Ukraine but NATO as a whole and has already decisively not only defeated Ukraine but also proved that the US couldn't win a war with Iran let alone Russia based on the US performance so far. I literally can't think of a more biased viewpoint than "Russia has already singlehandedly defeated Ukraine and NATO.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:41
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Wheeljack posted:Why not try a "Flying Tigers" style "volunteer" group of F-16 mechanics late of the USAF? No different than the volunteer soldier groups and certainly not as provocative as the Little Green Men the Russians have sent to Ukraine, so they can just shut up. I think that has been floated. I think I saw something akin to that if the Aussies can give the F-18s as well. There is plenty of retired folks trained on those airframes that they could get to go there.
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Jun 10, 2023 03:44
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dumby posted:he's obviously an orc Could we not?
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Jun 10, 2023 06:01
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Wheeljack posted:Why not try a "Flying Tigers" style "volunteer" group of F-16 mechanics late of the USAF? No different than the volunteer soldier groups and certainly not as provocative as the Little Green Men the Russians have sent to Ukraine, so they can just shut up. yeah, or send "advisors" like us and su did in korea and vietnam and elsewhere
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Jun 10, 2023 06:20
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Rust Martialis posted:Could we not? Pretty sure he was just using the standard abbreviation for [O]bvious [R]ussian [C]onman. No relation to any tolkienesque creatures. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 10, 2023 06:28
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enigma74 posted:Pretty sure he was just using the standard abbreviation for [O]bvious [R]ussian [C]onman. No relation to any tolkienesque creatures. Nah.
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Jun 10, 2023 06:39
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I occasionally like to skim over google news compilation which is 90% russian for me to have a glimpse into the loving phantasmagoria going on there. Welp 17 people died from drinking cider in some town. Nevermind, local news got into the feed, russia wouldn't be russia if someone didn't die of methanol poisoning. 2 days later WTF its already 120 people dead from that cider. Heroic police are doing a good job, they traced the source! Also russian MOD proposed to give veteran status to people defending territories adjacent to special military operation. What kind of hosed up special military operation is that
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Jun 10, 2023 08:25
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32 died, about a hundred have poisoning https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-65818840 I hope the contrnastoop goes well and the KGB regime is broken, there's pretty much no other way Russia can become a normal country(ies) where human life matters or there's a vision of the future instead of reliving pobeda and gagarin all the time
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Jun 10, 2023 09:04
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We now have footage of the Ukrainian perspective of the incident with the disabled Bradleys which confirms that these were mine collisions while trying to get around disabled vehicles during withdrawal. It also confirms that they weren't under heavy fire at the time and that the crews likely evacuated unharmed. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667462371072253952 I wonder if it was literally just that one helicopter that caused all this with a few missiles. Chalks fucked around with this message at 11:17 on Jun 10, 2023 |
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Jun 10, 2023 11:12
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Sekenr posted:Welp 17 people died from drinking cider in some town. Nevermind, local news got into the feed, russia wouldn't be russia if someone didn't die of methanol poisoning. In a very Russian way the methanol for deadly "Mister Cider" was sourced from a police evidence warehouse
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Jun 10, 2023 11:13
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Chalks posted:We now have footage of the Ukrainian perspective of the incident with the disabled Bradleys which confirms that these were mine collisions while trying to get around disabled vehicles during withdrawal. It also confirms that they weren't under heavy fire at the time and that the crews likely evacuated unharmed. Not sure how that video confirms any of that?
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Jun 10, 2023 11:38
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TheRat posted:Not sure how that video confirms any of that? The question of whether they were hit by artillery strikes or whether they ran over some mines in the absence of any significant enemy fire seems confirmed, to at least some extent, by the total lack of enemy fire and the running over of mines in this footage - at least for the time period shown. This is in addition to the lack of obvious shell craters in the drone footage and the ka-52 footage showing little incoming fire. I mention this because the original version video was spliced together with a bunch of long distance footage of artillery strikes on unclear targets. That footage seems to have been added to make this seem more dramatic and is probably unrelated.
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Jun 10, 2023 11:54
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Zelensky confirming that the counter-offensive has begun: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65866880 As people have said, it'll probably be a couple of weeks or even months before we can know if it's been successful.
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Jun 10, 2023 15:43
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Phlegmish posted:Zelensky confirming that the counter-offensive has begun: Yep, all signs before and current show that "success" is going to look much like the late summer offensive of 2022 in Kherson. Russians are prepared and willing to fight and the Ukrainians don't appear have clear edge and it is probably going to be a slog with a decent chance they will end up with not a ton to show for it. Goons should temper their expectations now. I know some folks were hoping for Kharkiv round 2 but that is very unlikely to happen.
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Jun 10, 2023 16:11
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MikeC posted:Yep, all signs before and current show that "success" is going to look much like the late summer offensive of 2022 in Kherson. Russians are prepared and willing to fight and the Ukrainians don't appear have clear edge and it is probably going to be a slog with a decent chance they will end up with not a ton to show for it. Goons should temper their expectations now. I know some folks were hoping for Kharkiv round 2 but that is very unlikely to happen. Your evidence, please.
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Jun 10, 2023 16:31
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Your evidence, please. 1) Lack of panicked Russian posting on telegram that are located deeper and deeper behind the front lines on an hourly basis like what happened in Kharkiv shortly after that op kicked off. 2) The fact that the Kharkiv offensive was the only case in over a year of fighting that had the Ukrainians actually defeat Russian forces and capture large amounts of territory. Every other instance of major liberation of territory has come from the Russians withdrawing largely on their own terms (Kyiv pocket and other northern Oblasts in April 22, Kherson after 2 months of fighting and Russians withdrawing across the Dnipro with no mass surrender). Both cases had Russians under severe supply constraints on over extended positions. This time around they have had 8 months of preparation in the south. I don't know why anyone who has looked into the conflict with any depth would expect another Kharkiv like success unless you thought Western tanks and vehicles were wonder weapons.
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Jun 10, 2023 16:55
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Plus, the lengths of the various offensives lately are roughly 3-4 weeks in Kharkiv, 10 weeks in Kherson, and 9 months for Bakhmut. Bakhmut was more like 13 months, if you start the clock when Russia announced a changed focus of the war toward focusing specifically on the Donbass. You're just not going to see some massive breakthrough in the first few days of combat most of the time, barring some highly unusual/unexpected results.
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Jun 10, 2023 16:59
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Strelkov bides his time...
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Jun 10, 2023 17:03
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MikeC posted:1) Lack of panicked Russian posting on telegram that are located deeper and deeper behind the front lines on an hourly basis like what happened in Kharkiv shortly after that op kicked off. That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.
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Jun 10, 2023 17:32
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Xiahou Dun posted:That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo. The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.
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Jun 10, 2023 17:42
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EasilyConfused posted:The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: That's not evidence. That's you just saying poo poo.
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Jun 10, 2023 18:24
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Gentlegoons, you can't fight here! This is the war room!
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Jun 10, 2023 18:28
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