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Mr. Apollo posted:Trudeau made a surprise visit to Kyiv today. Canada never had the F-16. Unless Trudeau means Canada will contribute funding for training. Either way, pretty cool that he visited, and I still feel like NATO could be doing more faster. The Bradleys are proof that they are no longer just testing weapons systems by proxy, as the Bradley is battle proven, but it's still not enough. It's time to annihilate the occupiers and call Russia's nuclear bluff. I'd rather see a NATO enforced no-fly zone than F-16s a year out.
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Jun 11, 2023 03:10
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Sheet metal won't do anything against mortars and artillery. Adding overhead cover is typically dine with plywood and lots and lots of dirt. That takes enormous amounts of time and labor. Given limits of each, you'll see this done for strong points (bunkers) but rarely for long stretches of trench. "No fly zone" means NATO and Russia shoot at each other, full stop. It's not a passive, stand off type of operation. It is an active combat operation with active shooting on both sides.
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Jun 11, 2023 03:21
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saratoga posted:One of the things that I have found surprising is that even in year two of the war, and after seeing artillery and drone strikes destroy countless positions its exceptionally rare to have trenches with even basic sheet metal roofing. Even dugouts seem tiny and infrequent. Anything less than a foot of concrete or 20mm of steel and a decent anti spawling blanket just adds fragments to the blast. Any static emplacement that solid is going to attract a weapon that can destroy it. And if it's not in an area that ever gets attacked it essentially wasted money. It's value for value better spent on IFVs and tanks. If you think you need emplaced firepower it's logistically simpler to dig a vehicle fighting position to put your armor in or a simple infantry fighting position with a static weapon. Its more flexible than the bunker, you can pack up and move everything out of irrelevant or indefensible positions.
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Jun 11, 2023 03:25
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dugouts are absolutely everywhere, they're just concealed because not having the place you sleep spotted is really, really important if you don't want to blow up
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Jun 11, 2023 03:51
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Ynglaur posted:"No fly zone" means NATO and Russia shoot at each other, full stop. It's not a passive, stand off type of operation. It is an active combat operation with active shooting on both sides. I know what it means, I just think it would be advantageous to Ukraine with their superior ground based fighting systems, also NATO airspace command would mean eyes-on intelligence for Ukraine. But yeah Russia would likely go all out on SAM offensive to attack NATO aircraft so maybe a dumb idea.
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Jun 11, 2023 04:15
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Huggybear posted:I know what it means, I just think it would be advantageous to Ukraine with their superior ground based fighting systems, also NATO airspace command would mean eyes-on intelligence for Ukraine. But yeah Russia would likely go all out on SAM offensive to attack NATO aircraft so maybe a dumb idea. Pretty sure they're already getting eyes-on intelligence from NATO
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Jun 11, 2023 05:04
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Huggybear posted:Canada never had the F-16. Unless Trudeau means Canada will contribute funding for training.
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Jun 11, 2023 05:16
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Huggybear posted:I know what it means, I just think it would be advantageous to Ukraine with their superior ground based fighting systems, also NATO airspace command would mean eyes-on intelligence for Ukraine. But yeah Russia would likely go all out on SAM offensive to attack NATO aircraft so maybe a dumb idea. The Americans have been supplying them with detailed information on Russian positions and movements since the start of the war. That's how the Ukrainians were popping off so many Russian generals. Not sure the risk-reward ratio comes close to justifying what would effectively be NATO's entry into the war just for better surveillance. Deltasquid posted:Will they face the sme types of fortifications or something more solid? https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667694535978409984?s=20 An FPRI analyst signals that the main defensive belts are still located south of the area under attack. Rybar is acknowledging forward areas were abandoned without a fight due to threats to their rear.
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Jun 11, 2023 07:05
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Rigel posted:Can we move on from comparing prognostication abilities in the Ukraine thread? (And this has nothing to do with the probability that I would do poorly on a prediction contest of any kind) For sure. This is just revenge served cold for having had to read walls of text of Realist Theory garbage for the first half of 2022. Good memories of "the us will not support Ukraine bcuz China is the real strategic enemy and no one wants Russia to be close to it over Ukraine, who no one cares about" For content, trains keep getting derailed due to partisans, nuts https://twitter.com/Q0MT6pFmbVqynsM/status/1667770337470169088
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Jun 11, 2023 07:27
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The Ukrainians claim to have liberated the town of Blahodatne, on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3721293-ukraine-forces-liberate-village-of-blahodatne.html Some modest successes here and there, remains to be seen whether they can keep it up. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jun 11, 2023 |
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Jun 11, 2023 15:24
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Phlegmish posted:The Ukrainians claim to have liberated the town of Blahodatne, north of Bakhmut, which has changed hands a couple of times before: The Blahodatne in question is on the southern front, not the one near Bakhmut. It is directly south of Velyka Novosilka.
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Jun 11, 2023 16:19
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Oh, oops. It gets confusing when there are 30+ different Blahodatnes in Ukraine.
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Jun 11, 2023 16:25
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https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jun-8-10 CIT team report with some thoughts on the dam and a hilarious mspaint image. Excerpt: quote:Satellite images from May 2023 show water overflowing above the gates, indicating that the water level has exceeded even the surcharge reservoir level (16.6 m for the Kakhovka HPP, while the actual level reached 17.5 m in recent weeks). Furthermore, for eight months, water discharge occurred at one location near the main generator hall of the HPP, causing the dam to deteriorate. The gradual collapse of the road, as observed in the images from Jun. 2 to Jun. 5, which was previously slightly damaged due to shelling, according to an expert, indicates the gradual failure of the dam. The expert also believes that the explosions captured on the videos are too weak to cause significant damage to the dam. Even the explosion conducted by Russian forces in November could have only damaged the gate control mechanisms but not the structure itself. So their take is that the dam collapsed around 2:30-2:40 am due to structural failure, then ~2:50 am an explosion occurs (likely in the power plant). Kinda interesting to see where it goes. Edit: the future of warfare is truly here, feels like video game streaming https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667891456437112835?cxt=HHwWhsC-jaucxaUuAAAA
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Jun 11, 2023 17:15
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Skippy McPants posted:What is the opposite of a war room? A peace plain? Seems appropriate for this war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkTQri3a4Gg
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Jun 11, 2023 17:23
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Girkin posting an update on liberated villages on the Zaporizhzhia front: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1667926622383620098 Nothing age-restricted about the tweet, it's just a telegram post, translated + small map of villages liberated / currently being fought over. Edit: \/\/\/ Ah, oops. Sorry, got my Twitter Russians confused there. Corrected now. Still can't seem to get the twee to embed though. :-/ \/\/\/ Paranoea fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jun 11, 2023 |
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Jun 11, 2023 17:26
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That's not Strelkov unless he's getting filtered through another source unattributed. It's kind of wild to see an 8km deep push already. Ukraine hasn't hit the "real" fortifications yet however. Fortunately they haven't shown the vast majority if their prepared offensive units either.
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Jun 11, 2023 17:45
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Yeah, as far as I know a lot of their Western-armed and trained crack units are still being held in reserve. Will be interesting to see what happens once they finally enter the fray.
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Jun 11, 2023 17:50
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The BBC is reporting that Wagner is being taken over by the Russian military; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65871232 We’ll see what happens but that’s a huge development. I wonder if Prigozhen is checking the safety railing on his home and office balconies.
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Jun 11, 2023 17:55
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Phlegmish posted:Yeah, as far as I know a lot of their Western-armed and trained crack units are still being held in reserve. Will be interesting to see what happens once they finally enter the fray. Can you provide a source for this, or was the "AFAIK" an indirect way of saying you're just making it up?
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Jun 11, 2023 17:58
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Saladman posted:The BBC is reporting that Wagner is being taken over by the Russian military; Too bad Wagner got itself ground to dust in Bakhmut or they'd be in a position to do something about it. Or perhaps that was the point of grinding them to dust.
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Jun 11, 2023 18:01
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So FPV drones harassing resupply lines have been a thing for a while on the Ukrainian side, but there was a recent video released by Russians showing attacks on a truck convoy on the Tomak axis. I would imagine the further the Ukrainians push, the more of an issue resupply will be (on top of the usual artillery and the like) - drone counter battery will be an interesting tactical problem to solve.
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Jun 11, 2023 18:03
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Saladman posted:The BBC is reporting that Wagner is being taken over by the Russian military; Prigozhen has already told them to go pound sand so this is going to get very interesting https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1667903202430263298
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Jun 11, 2023 18:10
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So probably a dumb question in light of the past 5 pages, but are we past the “shaping operations” phase and into the counteroffensive now? Would Perun & Anders Puck Nielsen call this the counteroffensive?
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Jun 11, 2023 18:14
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buglord posted:So probably a dumb question in light of the past 5 pages, but are we past the “shaping operations” phase and into the counteroffensive now? Would Perun & Anders Puck Nielsen call this the counteroffensive? I think they're technically still in the "find a weak spot" phase but maybe they've found one. It's all part of the counteroffensive, either way.
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Jun 11, 2023 18:23
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Quixzlizx posted:Can you provide a source for this, or was the "AFAIK" an indirect way of saying you're just making it up? quote:ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces appear to have committed only a portion of their available reserves for current counteroffensive operations, and that the existing reports of damaged Western-provided equipment are not a definitive measure of current Ukrainian combat power. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2023 I also remember reading somewhere else that specific elite units were among the reserves, but I can't find a source right now, so maybe I am indeed misremembering that part.
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Jun 11, 2023 18:26
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Phlegmish posted:https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2023 Thanks for the follow-up.
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Jun 11, 2023 18:36
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667950468159492104
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Jun 11, 2023 18:51
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Xiahou Dun posted:Sure, that's a short but fair summary of some of the difficulties the counter-offensive is and will be facing. he's a mealymouthed moron who's wrong about everything no one should waste time reading his bullshit, but if someone by accident reads one of his posts they should assume that the opposite of what he wrote is correct (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 11, 2023 19:44
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Please, I myself am a drunk uncle, let's not say things we cannot take back here.
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Jun 11, 2023 19:46
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buglord posted:So probably a dumb question in light of the past 5 pages, but are we past the “shaping operations” phase and into the counteroffensive now? Would Perun & Anders Puck Nielsen call this the counteroffensive? I think it's safe to say the counter offensive has begun, most analysis seem to be saying that due to the fact that we've seen western vehicles being committed on several fronts. It's still not totally clear where the bulk of the forces will be committed, as others have said they may still be in the process of testing various points to see how well the defences hold up. The situation on the ground is unclear but I've seen people saying they don't believe they've committed the majority of their forces yet. There's still room for speculation about where the main push is and what's just a fixing operation. Latest updates, rumours and speculation have the front line collapsing along the whole Velyka Novosilka axis as Russia withdraws to avoid encirclement https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667938082375475202 It is important to point out that the current front line that the Russians are retreating from is not the first of the three lines of fortifications that have been discussed in the media. They are about 10km further south than the villages that have been captured https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667946341727866880 *edit* fixed the name of the direction where the main success is happening Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Jun 11, 2023 |
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Jun 11, 2023 19:48
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Bog standard Russian doctrine includes having many kilometers of disruption zone, where they try to disintegrate, degrade, slow, canalize and generally seek to weaken a force before it gets to the battle zone. This is generally an economy of force effort. So on top of general fog of war, it can be hard, even for the combatants, to have a clear idea of how the battle is going based on actions in the DZ.
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Jun 11, 2023 19:54
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That's not towards Tokmak, it's more towards Berdiansk or Mariupol.
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Jun 11, 2023 19:55
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russian troops fired on an evacuation boat in kherson, killing 3 and wounding 23quote:Governor Oleksandr Prokudin earlier reported that the people were being evacuated from the Russian-occupied east bank back to the Ukrainian controlled side of the Dnipro River when the attack occurred. reminds me of the earlier days when civilians were trapped in the russian sieges and red cross convoys kept being disrupted
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Jun 11, 2023 20:26
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It took a few days but the Russians finally have a new set of Ukrainian losses to post: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1668004630939283459 Unfortunate to lose so many demining vehicles at once.
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Jun 11, 2023 22:25
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Every vehicle can be a de-mining vehicle if you have enough of them.
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Jun 11, 2023 22:32
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Breaching a mine/wire obstacle is brutal in the best of conditions. If an obstacle has proper overwatch from the defender it will be a meat grinder regardless of the quality of the attacking force. U.S. doctrine calls for multiple contingencies for each breach location with the expectation that if successful the last contingency will likely finish the job. The combat engineers performing the breaches are expected to be eliminated/Non-Mission Capable win or lose.
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Jun 11, 2023 23:08
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Chalks posted:It took a few days but the Russians finally have a new set of Ukrainian losses to post:
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Jun 11, 2023 23:22
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Twitter war experts hyper analyzing a hand full of wrecked vehicles in the same field for a week straight and trying to extrapolate whose winning the war.
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Jun 12, 2023 00:03
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Popete posted:Twitter war experts hyper analyzing a hand full of wrecked vehicles in the same field for a week straight and trying to extrapolate whose winning the war. Whoever gets the contract to make more Bradleys and Leopards I guess.
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Jun 12, 2023 00:15
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Lets hope some of those TOS kills were a result of this, at least. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1667709484045860865
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Jun 12, 2023 00:44
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