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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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url
Apr 23, 2007

internet gnuru

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The voice calls I've heard describe the Russian soldiers telling their families that every house has a laundry machine or a dish washer etc.

It gonna get written in history as the war of the white goods. The clever pun about nazis being good whites is built in, but I can't dig it out in a humorous zinger.

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William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

url posted:

It gonna get written in history as the war of the white goods. The clever pun about nazis being good whites is built in, but I can't dig it out in a humorous zinger.

One of Zelensky's greatest attacks on the philosophical and material hollowness of Russia was early in the war. He said something like, "In the Soviet Union, the thing people said was 'see Paris, then you can die'. Now it's 'steal a toilet and die'".

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
just by confirmed reports of villages liberated, Ukraine has taken more land since June 6 than Russia has all year

url
Apr 23, 2007

internet gnuru

William Bear posted:

One of Zelensky's greatest attacks on the philosophical and material hollowness of Russia was early in the war. He said something like, "In the Soviet Union, the thing people said was 'see Paris, then you can die'. Now it's 'steal a toilet and die'".

loving ouch!
:masterstroke:

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

HonorableTB posted:

just by confirmed reports of villages liberated, Ukraine has taken more land since June 6 than Russia has all year

Bakhmut encircled!!! The end is nigh for the perfidious west and its NATO puppets

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006


Lmfao

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Clearly the enemy has already struck his hairline

Bluemillion
Aug 18, 2008

I got your dispensers
right here

Isn't that the stuff that makes your arms literally explode?

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Synthol!

Kung Food
Dec 11, 2006

PORN WIZARD

Bluemillion posted:

Isn't that the stuff that makes your arms literally explode?
Apparently he wasn't even using the right stuff, an oil called synthol. Instead he was injecting petroleum jelly. Three years ago he had three liters removed from just one arm.

Sashimi
Dec 26, 2008


College Slice
Shame we can't see his legs.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Bluemillion posted:

Isn't that the stuff that makes your arms literally explode?

Spinach?

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
hulk hogan is gonna hear about those pythons brother and he's gonna have to come to ukraine to whip rear end and drop the big boot on putin, the piece of poo poo

e: lol i forgot the US has an active warrant out for prigozhin's arrest for conspiracy to defraud the US


HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Jun 12, 2023

Arc Hammer
Mar 4, 2013

Got any deathsticks?

OE Fitness is going to need to find a new target for his oil-related workout puns.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Any Finn or Pole anywhere: "Now imagine this person is your neighbor!"

Bluemillion
Aug 18, 2008

I got your dispensers
right here

Honestly this guy's proportions are less hosed up than' Popeyes.

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
That left arm looks photoshopped on the upper bicep lol

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1668055750755729408

lmao russian commentators talking about how russia has free speech is laughable when you have laws banning the use of the word 'war' and talking negatively about the invasion. But the west is North Korea. Hey, Marga, NK are supposed to be your friends. Don't throw them under the bus.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008


This guy has a Tiktok account where he constantly does livestreams of him (presumably) getting high on opiates and nodding/drooling to the camera for hours

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Tiny Timbs posted:

This guy has a Tiktok account where he constantly does livestreams of him (presumably) getting high on opiates and nodding/drooling to the camera for hours

somehow this is still superior to getting fragged in a muddy trench by a ukrainian drone

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Ukraine says they found a German dead from the other war that washed up from the flood

There’s a tweet but it has a skull on it so

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Alan Smithee posted:

Ukraine says they found a German dead from the other war that washed up from the flood

There’s a tweet but it has a skull on it so

Hoping for Landsknecht, sure you mean something else

Raku
Nov 7, 2012

Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of lights with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change.

Roll Tide

Alan Smithee posted:

Ukraine says they found a German dead from the other war that washed up from the flood

There’s a tweet but it has a skull on it so

I would very much like someone to pm a link of this tweet to me

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Well, that's inconvenient. If true. Stupid explodey things.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1667974983430094849
"The defence industry of the Russian Federation is affected by international sanctions. According to available information, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their self-detonation.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Self targeting missiles still good to go

Autisanal Cheese
Nov 29, 2010

Barudak posted:

Hoping for Landsknecht, sure you mean something else

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Barudak posted:

Hoping for Landsknecht, sure you mean something else

Idgi

AJA
Mar 28, 2015

the popes toes posted:

Well, that's inconvenient. If true. Stupid explodey things.

"The defence industry of the Russian Federation is affected by international sanctions. According to available information, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their self-detonation.

The parable of the Russian Ammunition and the Russian frog mobik.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

They're making a joke about dead German medieval pikemen mercenaries being preferable to the nazis which were there much more recently

Deki
May 12, 2008

It's Hammer Time!
I'd be more concerned if a live nazi from ww2 washed up than a dead one.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Deki posted:

I'd be more concerned if a live nazi from ww2 washed up than a dead one.

If Adolf Hitler were alive today, he'd be really old

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Good article:

Think Ukraine's offensive has started? Wait for the heavy brigades.

quote:

There’s fighting underway across frontline Ukraine, says Lt-Gen (rtd.) Ben Hodges, but the decisive moment will come when we see hundreds of armored vehicles hitting Russian lines.

The social media channels are alive with grainy footage of tanks and explosions in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. There are statements everywhere that Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive is underway, which is causing some excitement and trepidation. The offensive is incredibly important for Ukraine’s future.

But when assessing what’s actually happening, it’s useful to understand some key facts. There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not I think the main attack.

When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun. To date, I don’t think we’ve witnessed this concentration of several hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the attack.

A Ukrainian tank battalion normally has 31 tanks. An armored infantry battalion would have about the same number. Add in armored vehicles carrying engineers, air defense, logistics, and so on. An armored brigade would likely have three tank battalions and one or two mechanized infantry battalions. In total, then, an armored brigade is going to have 250-plus armored vehicles of different types.

I estimate that the Ukrainians have put together anywhere from seven to 12 armored brigades. Some may have only Ukrainian or captured Russian equipment, and others will have a mix of Western-provided kit.

When we see two or three of those brigades (around 500-750 armored vehicles) focused on a narrow front, it will then be possible to say that the main attack has probably started and where it’s happening. But even then, be careful. The Ukrainian General Staff will want to keep the Russians guessing about the location of the main attack for as long as possible, and they won’t be too bothered (and will probably welcome) Twitter getting it wrong.

If the West provides everything the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) need, especially long-range precision weapons, then I still anticipate that Ukraine can liberate Crimea, the decisive terrain of this war, by the end of this summer, that is to say, by the end of August. This is one of the aims of the offensive, I believe. At that point, the UAF’s long-range precision weapons could reach Sevastopol, Saky, Dzankoy, and other key Crimean targets, and that would allow them to make the peninsula untenable for Russian forces. That’s why the UK’s delivery of Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles with a range of 155-plus miles, was such an important contribution.

hope the Biden Administration will finally relent and give short-range (up to 300km or 186 miles) ground-to-ground ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine. That would mark a decisive contribution to what Ukrainian forces can achieve on the ground by giving the offensive an enormous boost.

Some have dated the start of this campaign to June 4, two days before Russia’s sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River on June 6. That was likely the moment when General Valerii Zaluzhny, the UAF commander-in-chief, decided — in my view — that his three preconditions had been met and that he could therefore give the green light. He would have asked:

Is there enough combat power (armored brigades with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, engineers, artillery, air defense and logistics) to be able to penetrate the Russian linear defenses and achieve their assigned tasks, which probably includes cutting the “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea, and also securing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?;
Have Russian defenses and logistics been sufficiently degraded; has the Russian rear area and transportation network been adequately disrupted; and are the Russian leadership confused enough as to the aim and timings of the UAF offensive?; and
Is the ground dry enough to support the movement of hundreds of heavy, tracked, armored vehicles?


https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for-the-heavy-brigades/

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

X

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 05:13 on Jun 12, 2023

tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

HonorableTB posted:

quote:

If the West provides everything the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) need, especially long-range precision weapons, then I still anticipate that Ukraine can liberate Crimea, the decisive terrain of this war,

I'm not sure what they mean here. as in it'll be the hardest to reclaim? I would think while Ukraine would certainly like to liberate Crimea (and I agree with him that they likely can) the mainland territory is more decisive.

good article though, thank you

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

tiaz posted:

I'm not sure what they mean here. as in it'll be the hardest to reclaim? I would think while Ukraine would certainly like to liberate Crimea (and I agree with him that they likely can) the mainland territory is more decisive.

good article though, thank you

They are saying that if Ukraine is given everything on its wish list (from ATACMS to F-16s to Abrams to whatever else they might want), then Crimea would be a reasonable and attainable target to take militarily. The inverse of this is that without that gear, Crimea would not necessarily be a reasonable or attainable target to take in the sense of invasion; in that case, Crimea would be taken through geographic and logistical isolation via cutting off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea through occupied Donbas (which is what they are currently doing) or through diplomatic negotiations as part of ending active hostilities

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HonorableTB posted:

They are saying that if Ukraine is given everything on its wish list (from ATACMS to F-16s to Abrams to whatever else they might want), then Crimea would be a reasonable and attainable target to take militarily. The inverse of this is that without that gear, Crimea would not necessarily be a reasonable or attainable target to take in the sense of invasion; in that case, Crimea would be taken through geographic and logistical isolation via cutting off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea through occupied Donbas (which is what they are currently doing) or through diplomatic negotiations as part of ending active hostilities



Even without all that, existing weapons can eventually starfe out Crimea. Blanketing the island with AA and establishing G2S missile sites wil allow Ukraine to prevent a huge amount of shipping via air or shop. Blowing the bridge completely aswell seems completely possibly now. Especially with storm shadow in play.

I think that taking it might become a negotiated settlement. Especially if Russia starts really burning and Crimea becomes a secondary matter to rebels and the shattered men of the failed war who lurk the hills and highways.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

tiaz posted:

I'm not sure what they mean here. as in it'll be the hardest to reclaim? I would think while Ukraine would certainly like to liberate Crimea (and I agree with him that they likely can) the mainland territory is more decisive.
More politically decisive, I'd say. The loss of Crimea would be devastating for the regime and make abundantly clear that Putin has lost the mandate of heaven. Unfortunately, getting forces across the Isthmus of Perekop would be monumentally difficult and would likely only come about as a result of a broader collapse of the Russian lines or a prolonged siege.

It's not impossible and it's the ultimate goal Ukraine should have, but seems unlikely to come about as part of this immediate offensive and shouldn't factor into analyses of its success. Of course, the Russians could just collapse in a week—hard to tell how much of their "entrenchment" is empty posturing and the apparent infighting didn't bode well for them.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Even without all that, existing weapons can eventually starfe out Crimea. Blanketing the island with AA and establishing G2S missile sites wil allow Ukraine to prevent a huge amount of shipping via air or shop. Blowing the bridge completely aswell seems completely possibly now. Especially with storm shadow in play.

I think that taking it might become a negotiated settlement. Especially if Russia starts really burning and Crimea becomes a secondary matter to rebels and the shattered men of the failed war who lurk the hills and highways.

Blowing the bridge has been possible ever since HIMARS were delivered last summer. If you remember, Ukraine did a major strike against that bridge late last summer and destroyed its traffic ability in two lanes, and the remaining lane was reduced to single vehicle traffic only. I don't know the status of the repairs done since, but I doubt the damage has been fully repaired.

The major thing is that Ukraine has deliberately left the Kerch Bridge usable, if not critically damaged. They've said they are deliberately leaving an escape/retreat route open for the occupiers in Crimea; if you trap someone with no way out, you're making them fight to the death more often than you're not. The Kerch Bridge will be left standing for as long as it helps Ukraine's purposes more than it hinders them, and you'll know when that inflection point happens because the bridge will go from standing to down overnight. Let alone HIMARS, a Storm Shadow to a load bearing strut will collapse that bridge faster than you can say Kharkiv Counteroffensive.

When it comes to Crimea itself, that's the one sticking area I've never felt comfortable projecting about. It has such a deep history and importance to Russia that they legitimately take Crimea to be core Russian land, and have for hundreds of years. The Russian Empire went to war to take Crimea in the first place because of Sevastopol and the need for an ice-free, deep water port. I cannot imagine Russia giving up such a strategic importance lightly, and when it comes to Crimea, I believe for Russia all options are on the table from tac-nukes to a negotiated exchange in a peace settlement. It's just such a wild card that it's impossible to even project possibilites outside of broad strokes tbh

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Jun 12, 2023

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HonorableTB posted:

Blowing the bridge has been possible ever since HIMARS were delivered last summer. If you remember, Ukraine did a major strike against that bridge late last summer and destroyed its traffic ability in two lanes, and the remaining lane was reduced to single vehicle traffic only. I don't know the status of the repairs done since, but I doubt the damage has been fully repaired.

The major thing is that Ukraine has deliberately left the Kerch Bridge usable, if not critically damaged. They've said they are deliberately leaving an escape/retreat route open for the occupiers in Crimea; if you trap someone with no way out, you're making them fight to the death more often than you're not. The Kerch Bridge will be left standing for as long as it helps Ukraine's purposes more than it hinders them, and you'll know when that inflection point happens because the bridge will go from standing to down overnight. Let alone HIMARS, a Storm Shadow to a load bearing strut will collapse that bridge faster than you can say Kharkiv Counteroffensive.

When it comes to Crimea itself, that's the one sticking area I've never felt comfortable projecting about. It has such a deep history and importance to Russia that they legitimately take Crimea to be core Russian land, and have for hundreds of years. The Russian Empire went to war to take Crimea in the first place because of Sevastopol and the need for an ice-free, deep water port. I cannot imagine Russia giving up such a strategic importance lightly, and when it comes to Crimea, I believe for Russia all options are on the table from tac-nukes to a negotiated exchange in a peace settlement. It's just such a wild card that it's impossible to even project possibilites outside of broad strokes tbh


The only broad stroke I would confidently say is likely is that Ukraine marches To the sea of Azov before going after Donetsk and Luhansk etc to cut off reinforcements into Crimea from the Ukrianians side.

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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The only broad stroke I would confidently say is likely is that Ukraine marches To the sea of Azov before going after Donetsk and Luhansk etc to cut off reinforcements into Crimea from the Ukrianians side.

You're not wholly wrong, but I would advise you to shift your projects further south because this counteroffensive is entirely aimed at liberating Melitopol as a jumping-off point to taking Mariupol or somehow otherwise severing the land bridge from Russian occupied Donbas to Russian occupied Crimea. Ukraine would not be shooting for Tokmak if Melitopol wasn't the first main course on the menu because Tokmak is strategically unimportant in any scenario except for one in which Ukraine is going to try for Mariupol and cut that link in half to put strategic pressure on Crimea (remember, Russia blowing the dam at Kakhovka also cut off Crimea's irrigation and agricultural water supply, this helps in a siege scenario). Tokmak itself is a regionally important crossroads with links to Zaporizhzhia oblast and Donbas

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 05:57 on Jun 12, 2023

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