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fatherboxx)
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It makes sense if you're coming at it from the perspective that Russia can only get weaker while Ukraine can only get stronger, i.e. Russia under sanctions can't replace a lot of their military hardware while Ukraine is getting a steady stream of Western military aid. Unfortunately the situation is way more complex.
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Jun 17, 2023 14:18
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Tuna-Fish posted:The procedure for that is "the vehicle behind the immobilized one rams into it and pushes it forwards". This is a thing that actually works and has been tested. Although it makes steering difficult, but hopefully if the vehicle in front starts to drift out of the cleared path, it will detonate the mines instead of the vehicle pushing it. Is there much difference between having tank in neutral or gear locked in place? Say Abrams gets knocked down will next Abrams in place be able to push those 70 tons forward if the tracks add extra resistance?
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Jun 17, 2023 16:05
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NYT piece arguing that the Nova Kakhovka dam was likely destroyed by an explosive charge in a maintenance passageway. Only Russians had access to the passageway and it would have been virtually impossible for Ukraine to destroy the dam from outside, especially undetected. An accidental collapse, while not impossible, is described as unlikely at best.quote:The dam was visibly scarred by fighting in the months before the breach. Ukrainian strikes had damaged one part of the roadway over the dam, and retreating Russian troops later blew up another. Last month, satellite images showed water flowing uncontrolled over some of the gates. quote:Engineers cautioned that only a full examination of the dam after the water drains from the reservoir can determine the precise sequence of events leading to the destruction. Erosion from water cascading through the gates could have led to a failure if the dam were poorly designed, or the concrete was substandard, but engineers called that unlikely. quote:The seismic signals were picked up on two sensors, one in Romania and one in Ukraine, and occurred at 2:35 a.m. and 2:54 a.m. Ukraine time, said Ben Dando, a seismologist at Norsar, a Norwegian organization that specializes in seismology and seismic monitoring. The signals were both consistent with an explosion, Dr. Dando said — and not, say, the collapse of the dam on its own. quote:Gregory B. Baecher, an engineering professor at the University of Maryland and a member of the National Academy of Engineers, also said the scale of the breach indicated that the underlying concrete barrier had failed, suggesting that charges had been set deep in the structure. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html
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Jun 17, 2023 18:25
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Driving around Houston, I saw a truck flying the Russian flag with a Z taped on the side window. I really want/don't want to know what the hell that guy is thinking.
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Jun 17, 2023 18:34
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Nenonen posted:This is beyond ridiculous. Oh so this is why I got some guy on my feed gushing about how clean and wonderful Mariupol is now thanks to those sweet Russian liberators, huh.
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Jun 17, 2023 18:58
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Oil! posted:Driving around Houston, I saw a truck flying the Russian flag with a Z taped on the side window. I really want/don't want to know what the hell that guy is thinking. Houston has a lot of large immigrant communities. Russian propaganda is extremely heavy and effective in some countries and this also appears in related immigrant communities in the US.
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Jun 17, 2023 19:21
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Houston has a lot of large immigrant communities. Russian propaganda is extremely heavy and effective in some countries and this also appears in related immigrant communities in the US. Ship their asses back to Russia if that's how they feel.
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Jun 17, 2023 19:24
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alex314 posted:Is there much difference between having tank in neutral or gear locked in place? Say Abrams gets knocked down will next Abrams in place be able to push those 70 tons forward if the tracks add extra resistance? Not much, no. You can damage the transmission of the tower tank if it's not in neutral, iirc (my memory is fuzzy on this, though). That engine and torque can push a lot of weight around.
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Jun 17, 2023 19:27
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Western countries are publishing papers on the manipulation of social media to spread or stop the spread of specific information. Frosted Flake has posted some in CSPAM threads. These at the cursory glances I’ve had at them are differential equations and systems based models. Ie real and serious modeling with the possibility of controls. I think it’s reasonable to assume all states are working on similar ways to influence populations. So when you see this stuff… it’s another front of war propaganda. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jun 17, 2023 |
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Jun 17, 2023 19:28
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Pook Good Mook posted:Ship their asses back to Russia if that's how they feel. You are also not immune to propaganda. Edit: To be clear here, I’m implying the very same propaganda that you didn’t even consume directly led you to make a racist statement on the internet. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jun 17, 2023 |
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Jun 17, 2023 19:31
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Oil! posted:Driving around Houston, I saw a truck flying the Russian flag with a Z taped on the side window. I really want/don't want to know what the hell that guy is thinking. Feels like this is inviting people to vandalize your car.
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Jun 17, 2023 19:32
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Western countries are publishing papers on the manipulation of social media to spread or stop the spread of specific information. Frosted Flake has posted some in CSPAM threads. These at the cursory glances I’ve had at them are differential equations and systems based models. Ie real and serious modeling with the possibility of controls. I'm not sure what specific 'this stuff' you are referring to in this instance - could you be more specific? And yes that talk about deporting members of Russian immigrant communities for having bad political views is poo poo and should stop.
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Jun 17, 2023 20:37
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Pook Good Mook posted:Ship their asses back to Russia if that's how they feel. You'd find more than often that the loudest pro-Putin Russian migrants are the ones that already got citizenship or long-term residence so kicking them out on the grounds of commiting some public disturbance is unlikely. Especially in the countries with reliable free speech protections.
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Jun 17, 2023 21:19
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fatherboxx posted:You'd find more than often that the loudest pro-Putin Russian migrants are the ones that already got citizenship or long-term residence so kicking them out on the grounds of commiting some public disturbance is unlikely. Especially in the countries with reliable free speech protections. Weird how all these patriots supporting expansionist genocides want to live other places
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Jun 17, 2023 21:24
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Pook Good Mook posted:Weird how all these patriots supporting expansionist genocides want to live other places Motherland is best loved from afar
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Jun 17, 2023 21:27
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Pook Good Mook posted:Weird how all these patriots supporting expansionist genocides want to live other places Expats, emigrants and all can have really eccentric political views because they are kind of detached from their country of origin and simultaneously not deeply rooted in the country where they now live. For some this can result in a sort of "cargo cult patriotism" where you eat up propaganda from your home country not because you care about moving back but because it gives comfort. And on the other hand some want to convert completely to their new country and become more catholic than the Pope, to the point where they see immigration as a threat. People just aren't very rational actors it seems.
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Jun 17, 2023 21:40
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He could just be an internet cretin tbh
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Jun 17, 2023 22:19
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shocking if true
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Jun 17, 2023 22:23
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Pook Good Mook posted:Weird how all these patriots supporting expansionist genocides want to live other places Erdogan only wins elections because of all the Turkish people in other countries voting.
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Jun 17, 2023 22:52
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Armacham posted:Erdogan only wins elections because of all the Turkish people in other countries voting. Koinkidinkly this is important for Viktor Orban as well. Well, not Turks living in other countries...
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Jun 17, 2023 22:58
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's ok, the missile attacks on Kyiv while the African delegation were there didn't really happy. Just more fake news. Any write ups on this trip people can recommend because it seems to be a confusing debacle to me. khwarezm fucked around with this message at 03:33 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 01:05
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An interesting piece in the NY Times about Russians adapting and making life harder for the Ukrainian military. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/17/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-tactics.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare quote:But Moscow’s forces have improved their defenses, artillery coordination and air support, setting up a campaign that could look very different from the war’s early days. These improvements, Western officials say, will most likely make Russia a tougher opponent, particularly as it fights defensively, playing to its battlefield strengths. This defensive turn is a far cry from Russia’s initial plan for a full-scale invasion and Ukrainian defeat. It’s worth reading in full.
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Jun 18, 2023 01:06
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Tigey posted:I'm not sure what specific 'this stuff' you are referring to in this instance - could you be more specific? To elaborate This is an example of the type of paper I was referring to.  Basically governments are researching control of information and how to affect the opinions of populations via social media. This isn’t new news. Way back during the Arab Spring there were articles about CENTCOM having units for this type of social media stuff. (That’s been discussed to death in older threads particularly the Russia thread from back at the start of the trump presidency) Any way what’s interesting to me about that abstract page is the mention is the mention of differential equations models, because that means controls and controls theory. It’s a known thing we (the US) engage in targeted social media propaganda to influence public opinion in other nations. One can assume other nations do to with similar sophistication. Well scratch that we know they do similar things. https://cyberscoop.com/disinformation-russia-facebook-graphika-dfrlab/ https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/the-ccps-ukraine-war-propaganda/ So only the “of similar sophistication” part has to be an assumption anymore. Anyway the Russians generally target ethnic Russians in foreign countries for their overseas propaganda . https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2022/Courter/ And their propaganda has a couple of general characteristics. It’s detached from reality and doesn’t worry about having any consistency at all. There tends to a be a saturating amount of it, it is like a “firehouse”. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html Now they do not only target Russians outside Russian, just primarily so. I encounter this crap when I board vessels. The crew nationality that’s notable to me that isn’t from various Eastern European nations where I see it pop up is in Indian and Pakistani crew members. I don’t have sourcing on hand for it, but I understand a few specific African countries are also targeted by them. If I remember where i saw that, I’ll post it. Anyway the targeted (and it can be as targeted as any other advertising) manipulation of social media is just part of the propaganda war of any modern war. It’s an ongoing fight that we should pay attention to. Cause we often are gently caress ups about it https://www.npr.org/2023/04/21/1171193551/twitter-once-muzzled-russian-and-chinese-state-propaganda-thats-over-now It’s not strange that very specific Russian propaganda pops up in a place like Houston, which is a very diverse quite connected to the world city. It’s not “weird” fatherboxx. That’s what decentralized social influence program is going to look like . That Z poo poo is going to just pop up in places that seem to be but are not random. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 04:14
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Bar Ran Dun posted:This is an example of the type of paper I was referring to. This is social network analysis or SNA- it's what I eventually wanted to get to in the media literacy thread before it got trolled into oblivion. "State" here means status, as in opinion or emotional valence, and "social network" is any form of communication interaction, not necessarily social media. If I'm following it properly it's describing a really basic spread concept that looks a bit like false consensus modeling- basically if you make some assumptions that a group of individuals has a more or less stable set of people they're interacting with, and if "leaders" within the group maintain a shared position that can't be shifted, the "followers" in the group wind up converging on the opinion. I'm a bit confused and need to read it in much greater detail because it appears to be reinventing several wheels; the outcomes appear pretty trivial and the findings are analogous to Everett Rogers stuff, which is, uh, not new. I see that a lot with SNA, folks in different academic fields rediscovering basic concepts. I should note that while Russia may apply this degree of sophistication with some of their foreign-facing propaganda efforts, it's unlikely that they use SNA for anything but the most narrowly targeted, professional work; a lot of their stuff seems to be siloed and far less sophisticated, including the work targeting immigrant groups. A lot of the methods of propaganda don't require any math at all to be effective. Without doing a big essay explaining SNA, it has limited value unless you have a really complete map of the influence or communication network in question. iirc the US military has mostly used it to identify who to target for assassination in, e.g., terrorist groups. I can go into some of this stuff in further detail if it's of interest. I do not have access to, and would not be disclosing, any classified information, ofc. edit: yeah, I see the use of fractional order and control theory here, which isn't part of the SNA I studied, but it seems to be massively complicating the evaluation for no gain based on a ludicrously simplified social network, producing very obvious and old results (the network they use for modeling being from the 70s isn't a coincidence). If you assume a group has a set of leaders whose opinions influence everyone else and whose own opinions don't change... Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 04:43
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Yeah based on the first page of the article, "state" has nothing to do with governments. It's basically an article saying your future opinion depends on both your current opinion and the opinions of the people you link to. Looking at the author list, the first guy wrote the paper and the last guy was the senior scientist - the work was done in his lab. A quick search shows he's chair of the Nonlinear Controls and Robotics group at Clemson. The fact you are somehow nervous about the use of differential equations to model a network is probably the strangest thing about this. The author is now a professor in China https://ustc-icr.github.io/ Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 06:30
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Phlegmish posted:Feels like this is inviting people to vandalize your car. Yeah, looks like it’s a pretty good way to get your windows smashed even in Moscow
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Jun 18, 2023 06:37
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ranbo das posted:We're potentially a year away from Ukraine losing their biggest benefactor when the US 2024 elections roll around, I imagine that factors in. Given DeSantis' rhetoric on Ukraine, you can expect Putin to stay in this at least till the 2024 elections.
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Jun 18, 2023 06:53
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mllaneza posted:The US and UK strategic bombing campaigns also helped towards Stalin's generally reasonable demands for a Second Front as soon as possible. They did massive damage to Germany, killed a bunch of Germans, and put a lot of US and UK servicemen on the front lines; the 8th Air Force had a worse casualty rate than the USMC had invading islands in the Pacific. Stalin wasn't satisfied because it didn't divert German divisions from the Eastern Front, but the bombing campaign tied up a large portion of the Luftwaffe and a significant amount of resources for AA defenses - every Flak gun defending a city was one less heavy anti-tank gun on the Eastern Front. My first father-in-law was a tail-gunner on a B17 in that theater. He never flew in an aircraft after the war. They used to drive from Philly to Los Angeles to visit us. (My second was a bombarder on B17's in Europe, but he died in his 40's).
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Jun 18, 2023 06:56
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Rust Martialis posted:Yeah based on the first page of the article, "state" has nothing to do with governments. That’s not what makes it government the “Air Force Research Laboratory” is what does that. That and the person who posted this particular example is a Canadian military academic. I suspect there are a bunch of similar partner papers out of UF because of Mac Dill and Elgin. Discendo Vox posted:I can go into some of this stuff in further detail if it's of interest. I do not have access to, and would not be disclosing, any classified information, ofc. I’m extremely interested. Discendo Vox posted:edit: yeah, I see the use of fractional order and control theory here, which isn't part of the SNA I studied, but it seems to be massively complicating the evaluation for no gain based on a ludicrously simplified social network, producing very obvious and old results (the network they use for modeling being from the 70s isn't a coincidence). If you assume a group has a set of leaders whose opinions influence everyone else and whose own opinions don't change... This particular paper isn’t important as anything other than an example that it’s a thing. Years ago far more interesting things came up in the Russia propaganda thread. There was some pretty sophisticated models of social networks that got posted about in news articles. But there is always a certain amount “that’s crazy“ reaction to taking about this stuff at all.
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Jun 18, 2023 06:56
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Discendo Vox posted:A lot of the methods of propaganda don't require any math at all to be effective. A good friend and mentor of mine was responsible for the modern version of the stability model for vessel officers. He used to say (often and publicly) it was written for drunks with a middle school education. Personally models simplified to be accessible widely by the un or partially sophisticated are also extremely interesting because good (crappy ones are easy to make) simplified models for general use are hard to make. So what’s the drunk middle school level propaganda model they are giving the low level IRA folks is a very interesting question too. Edit: Rust Martialis posted:The fact you are somehow nervous about the use of differential equations to model a network is probably the strangest thing about this. Because one models a system with differential equations to make controls for the system. Because I have my own opinions about what I think it’s possible to model socially with the systems paradigm Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 07:14
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Bar Ran Dun posted:That’s not what makes it government the “Air Force Research Laboratory” is what does that. The researcher you are so worried about also wrote about maximizing profit mining Bitcoin. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8181504 I guess that means Bitcoin miners pools are under state control or something by this argument? Or maybe it means that you can't automatically conclude all papers coming out of a lab are a result of some master program, I dunno, call me crazy. quote:But there is always a certain amount “that’s crazy“ reaction to taking about this stuff at all. I cannot imagine how anyone could have that reaction to your idiosyncratic way of presenting your otherwise rather banal argument - the government funds research into social networks (and Bitcoin mining too!). The government funds *vastly* more research than only that done by researchers at actual military labs. Ask your Canuck bottle-washer how much funding NSERC controls for starters. But be careful - if they are at RMC, all their posts would therefore be tightly state-controlled.
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Jun 18, 2023 07:49
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Rust Martialis posted:Yeah based on the first page of the article, "state" has nothing to do with governments. It's basically an article saying your future opinion depends on both your current opinion and the opinions of the people you link to. I do wanna be clear, it is an article about influencing or manipulating opinion in social networks, and pays reference to social media- it's just not, at first glance, a very good one. I think the methods they're writing about are pretty much shoehorned into the social network analysis methodology. SNA-based propaganda manipulation is, however, the sort of thing the Chinese are likely to do in a sophisticated manner domestically. That's pretty much the only place that has the systems, resources and dedicated social control resources for it. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 08:21
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Bar Ran Dun posted:
Congratulations at discovering targeted advertising, it is not black magic, just additional settings. In news from the garage drinkers: https://twitter.com/Kremlinpool_RIA/status/1670135172556115968?t=a5y4V1LQOvrOPCK0AHenCg&s=19 Took Putin a year but he finally decided to air grievances regarding the failed negotiations and retreat from Kyiv. Apparently the document that Putin shakes here was allegedly signed by Ukrainian delegation (but not ratified by Ukrainian government) says that Ukraine agrees to the neutral status and cuts its military numbers. Putin insists that he believed them so much that he ordered to forces to leave Kyiv outskirts and other neighbouring regions but Ukraine did not uphold its part and not surrendered. Frankly it is bizzare and even if taken at face value makes Russian leadership look like complete morons. Dude is loving gone. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 09:59 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 09:44
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fatherboxx posted:Congratulations at discovering targeted advertising, it is not black magic, just additional settings. Oh dear, we'll hear about that for years, won't we.  "Putin offered a way to peace, but was betrayed by the Kiev regime. "
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Jun 18, 2023 10:09
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typewriter paper "war bad and no peace makes putin a strongman" written over and over
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Jun 18, 2023 10:56
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Because one models a system with differential equations to make controls for the system. Because I have my own opinions about what I think it’s possible to model socially with the systems paradigm You use differential equations to model literally anything and everything that changes in one way or another (eg, over time). In terms of modeling, differential equations is like “basic math”. It’s not a scary thing unless you’re afraid of Greek letters for some reason. E: Do you need differential equations for controls systems? Yes probably. But you need “algebra” to “make a dirty bomb” as well. Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 11:16
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fatherboxx posted:Frankly it is bizzare and even if taken at face value makes Russian leadership look like complete morons. Dude is loving gone. It's a classic tactic, Stalin did the same in Moscow in 1941. Then in 1945 he proposed to Hitler that they both just shoot themselves.
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Jun 18, 2023 11:17
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fatherboxx posted:Congratulations at discovering targeted advertising, it is not black magic, just additional settings. I may be misinterpreting it, but it doesn't look like an actual treaty or anything that can be binding. You can see that it has 'Position of Russia' and 'Position of Ukraine' in that addendum in the first photo. It looks more like a declaration that was supposed to be a basis for further negotiations. If someone from the Ukrainian delegation signed it, it was just to acknowledge they've read it. If Russians gracefully retreated because of that document, kind of weird that they left so many boobytraps. Not to mention that the document is dated April 15, whereas the retreat began in late March. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Jun 18, 2023 |
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Jun 18, 2023 11:18
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Paladinus posted:I may be misinterpreting it, but it doesn't look like an actual treaty or anything that can be binding. You can see that it has 'Position of Russia' and 'Position of Ukraine' in that addendum in the first photo. It looks more like a declaration that was supposed to be a basis for further negotiations.If someone from the Ukrainian delegation signed it, it was just to acknowledge they've read it. Yes, at best it is a premilinary term sheet or a statement of disagreements that needed government approval to be binding in any way.
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Jun 18, 2023 11:28
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Boris Galerkin posted:You use differential equations to model literally anything and everything that changes in one way or another (eg, over time). In terms of modeling, differential equations is like “basic math”. It’s not a scary thing unless you’re afraid of Greek letters for some reason. drat those perfidious westoids using things like "math" and "algebra" !
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Jun 18, 2023 12:25
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