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PurpleXVI posted:Considering how socially unstable India is at the moment, stuff like "gasoline is now more expensive because it would be unethical to hoover cheap oil out of Russia/because we gave arms to Ukraine and Russia no longer likes us" is probably a lit match that no Indian government wants to throw into the woodpile, rising energy/fuel prices have traditionally been the sort of thing that makes governments suddenly stop being in charge. Gotcha makes sense, just saw India was tweaking tariffs so WA state was gonna be selling them a lot more apples, was wondering if there were a lot bigger agreements happening.
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Jun 23, 2023 18:44
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Nessus posted:Does India have the equivalent of a SPR? If I was in charge of India or China, I would India almost certainly does not have a petroleum reserve, they have a hard time keeping enough energy flowing into India to get poo poo done, let alone buying extra to stockpile.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:29
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https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672312988445949952 After posting several angry videos which poo poo-talked everyone in the Russian government and straight up admitted that the Ukrainians didn't provoke the "special military operation," Prigozhin now claims that his camps have come under artillery attack from Russian troops. I want this to be real so badly.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:41
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 For anyone interested this is probably the more incendiary of the things Prigozhin said recently.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:43
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PurpleXVI posted:https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672312988445949952 Starting to feel like the last season of Deep Space Nine. Damar being played by Prigozhin. Re: India, as I understood it, Russia is selling oil to India at a loss as India is happily paying EU sanction prices. So I don’t know what’s worse for Russia, extracting it and selling at a loss or not extracting at all and not selling.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:49
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My understanding of the oil business is that while you can moderate or adjust the flow rate coming out of the ground, it's actually pretty hard to stop and start. Places that 'stop pumping oil' are often just storing it, and often have great facilities for that. It depends on the nature of the oil well, too; I think Saudi Arabia's wells are the sort you can just basically turn off and then turn on again later, while other kinds of oil wells will just clog up and require you to drill a new well if you stop. Russia is also in a situation where they might be taking a loss in absolute terms, but all of that loss is in-country, while selling oil to India and China means they get out-of-country income which can be spent on goods and services. Normally that's not where you want to be, but I suppose they just want the Donbass that much.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:52
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Dick Bastardly posted:Russian opsec being what it is, it's a wonder we don't see more stuff like this in the wild It's not obviously exfiltrated by an adversary, because it's redacted! But "an incredibly shoddy attempt at propaganda" does track.
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Jun 23, 2023 19:56
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ChubbyChecker posted:yeah, they have been one of the biggest donors, and have given more military aid than eg. france Seeing figures like this reminds of graphs of industrial output during WWII and how thoroughly the US out produced everyone else. Also calls into question how Europe would ever be able to unhitch itself from the US, it's pretty clearly incapable of handling security issues in its own backyard.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:03
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Mustang posted:Seeing figures like this reminds of graphs of industrial output during WWII and how thoroughly the US out produced everyone else. Those were so ridiculous, US produced enough for itself, a two ocean navy, lend lease, and sure why not the Manhattan Project too? Ford’s annual output alone exceeded the whole of Italy.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:11
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Mustang posted:Seeing figures like this reminds of graphs of industrial output during WWII and how thoroughly the US out produced everyone else. https://www.ft.com/content/80ace07f-3acb-40cb-9960-8bb4a44fd8d9 quote:In 2008 the EU’s economy was somewhat larger than America’s: $16.2tn versus $14.7tn. By 2022, the US economy had grown to $25tn, whereas the EU and the UK together had only reached $19.8tn. America’s economy is now nearly one-third bigger. It is more than 50 per cent larger than the EU without the UK. Basically every European start-up takes US venture capital, and those that go public wind up listing in the US. I've met a number of European start-up founders (including those of the company I work for) who couldn't find investors in Europe and wound up having to look in the US instead. psydude fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 20:13
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I had a Grunt friend recently ask me my opinion on a future American-Near Peer War, and I told him I couldn't answer because it's too broad of a question, but added the caveat "Logistics win wars. America is the best in the world at war logistics." WW2 was insane because every swinging dick was putting in work for the war effort. If you could run a press, a lathe, a mill, or rivet line, you were making war poo poo. We produced so much poo poo it was cheaper to throw poo poo away than fix it. Not just talking about the insane amounts of foodstuffs and ammo, but planes and tanks. I read an article of German Intel (probably came from the MilHist thread in A/T) where they briefed Hitler that America was producing something like 500 fighters a month. Hitler lashed out, saying if that was true, they'd lost the war. The Intel was wrong. We were producing like 2000 airframes a month, with single factories making 500 fighters a month. The M1 Carbine was the most produced small arm of WW2. We could make enough to supply ourselves, our friends, their friends, and still give a handful of old boats to any country who would throw in a good word. America logistics are terrifying, and have only improved. Viernam made us more efficient. Now, we can two active wars, and still put food courts in theater.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:22
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bulletsponge13 posted:I had a Grunt friend recently ask me my opinion on a future American-Near Peer War, and I told him I couldn't answer because it's too broad of a question, but added the caveat "Logistics win wars. America is the best in the world at war logistics." You know you're hosed when the Burger King trailer rolls off the plane.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:24
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Us logistics got to the point in ww2 where the most urgent outstanding problem was how to supply cold ice cream to every soldier in the pacific
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Jun 23, 2023 20:26
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672314259907158028?s=48&t=QqgoUAedZRAjkhj5ux0aew e: aaand some actual analysis https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1672300360625471488 Alchenar fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 20:27
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bulletsponge13 posted:I had a Grunt friend recently ask me my opinion on a future American-Near Peer War, and I told him I couldn't answer because it's too broad of a question, but added the caveat "Logistics win wars. America is the best in the world at war logistics." 100%, in the most isolated spots in the middle of the Pacific they’d push very fixable fighters off the runway when a new shipment arrived, as why not? There’s a good photo I saw in a book showing two grinning Australian sailors who’d gotten to have a meal on a US ship with plates loaded with meat & all the fixin’s. With the US workforce it was interesting how when Hanford opened up to make plutonium all the A, B, and C grade workers were already fully employed making bank & probably not in rural Washington so they had to settle for a lot of folk who had trouble staying employed elsewhere. They built taverns with special windows to allow easy tear gas tosses inside during disturbances, and bodies would be stuffed in trash bins after coworkers had disagreements, but the plutonium got made.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:31
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Alchenar posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672314259907158028?s=48&t=QqgoUAedZRAjkhj5ux0aew God drat who gave the keyboard to Clancy's ghost.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:32
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bulletsponge13 posted:I had a Grunt friend recently ask me my opinion on a future American-Near Peer War, and I told him I couldn't answer because it's too broad of a question, but added the caveat "Logistics win wars. America is the best in the world at war logistics." There's also the fact that our presence around the globe means that our logistics systems are working around the clock and we don't have to worry about losing that experience or having those skills atrophy. We know that the Russians definitely weren't maintaining their equipment or training readiness, but how effective is the training of the Chinese military? The Army is putting multiple brigades each month through the combat training centers, what other countries are doing anything remotely similar on that scale?
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Jun 23, 2023 20:36
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Mustang posted:There's also the fact that our presence around the globe means that our logistics systems are working around the clock and we don't have to worry about losing that experience or having those skills atrophy. I am really curious about China right now. I would love to know what, if any, actions they are taking to not be Russia in terms of military ability. I assume they are hoovering up data just like us and watching our weapon systems performance just as much as we are.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:45
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Mustang posted:There's also the fact that our presence around the globe means that our logistics systems are working around the clock and we don't have to worry about losing that experience or having those skills atrophy. This isn't true at all. The US military currently depends on the US merchant marine for everything. There currently are barely enough bodies to sustain 3-6 months of operations and thats stretching it. Beyond that, and God forbid theres losses, there's no capability. Theres plenty of MARAD vessels that are 40+ years old and they want to extend them another 20 years. The actual system is rotten.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:47
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i am incredibly skeptical of the reporting wrt wagner right now
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Jun 23, 2023 20:56
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One thing I'll never understand is why more or less every sovereign state depends on privately owned factories to supply them with weapons, vehicles and equipment. It just seems like a titanic, glaring flaw in security policy to let the vagaries of the free market determine whether you get enough missiles or planes or whatever in time, as well as the quality and pricing of them. I presume the answer is "lobbying," but it's still baffling that it seems to have happened everywhere.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:10
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PurpleXVI posted:One thing I'll never understand is why more or less every sovereign state depends on privately owned factories to supply them with weapons, vehicles and equipment. It just seems like a titanic, glaring flaw in security policy to let the vagaries of the free market determine whether you get enough missiles or planes or whatever in time, as well as the quality and pricing of them. I suspect this will change arms procurement going forwards
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Jun 23, 2023 21:15
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https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672334877423812611 Whether or not the reports of literal infighting between Wagner and the Russian Army are true, it seems like Prigozhin might finally have overstepped the line that the authorities are willing to tolerate.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:17
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so wrt wagner drama currently, a few true things: Prigozhin is making some wild statements that are pretty insurrectory. FSB opened a case against him for inciting insurrection https://t.me/tass_agency/197747 ria further reports  A huge amount of bullshit beyond that is being flung around, some of which might not be bullshit, but at the moment pretty much every noteworthy claim is extremely poorly sourced.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:21
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PurpleXVI posted:https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672334877423812611 They're probably just taking a break from arresting the real criminals: grade schoolers who drew anti-war pictures in class.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:A huge amount of bullshit beyond that is being flung around, some of which might not be bullshit, but at the moment pretty much every noteworthy claim is extremely poorly sourced. Yeah there are some very Clancy theories out there. Lemme share my favourite. https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672338025731469312?s=20 quote:OMON Riot police have surrounded Wagner PMC headquarters in Molkino. Wagner troops have taken defensive positions. Helicopter armed with gatling guns dispatched to the area. This base is shared with GRU 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. Guess which side they're on. It seems like everyone's taking the chance to write a bit of exciting fanfiction about Prigozhin.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:26
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Mustang posted:Also calls into question how Europe would ever be able to unhitch itself from the US, it's pretty clearly incapable of handling security issues in its own backyard. I think that is very much something to think about. It's not that clear cut. What kind of security issues are we talking about? Because I think the Russia-Ukraine war has been pretty illuminating in that regard. I remember the mockery European states got for not being able to sustain their aerial attacks against Ghaddafi. But it turns out that this is a problem shared by Russia and the US as well in some respects. It's clear that Russia has massive supply issues, surviving on Soviet stockpiles for a lot of their munitions, and having to severe restrictions on their ability to use their best weapons due to ammunition shortages. Meanwhile, people in the US are sounding warning bells that their stockpiles of critical ammunition that might be needed in a hypothetical fight against China are running dangerously low. Granted, those two powers face supply issues at vastly different scales. In the US, some specialized munitions used for more traditional land warfare, especially artillery shells, are running "dangerously low" as some call it. Munitions US planners clearly didn't think they'd need a lot of due to their assumed air superiority. Which is sound reasoning imho. Meanwhile, Russia is running out of everything, and has obvious troubles subduing a country that's very clearly not their peer, although at about a third the size of Russia in terms of population, Ukraine was never as easy a target as Georgia was for example. And European allies are also running low on the same type of munitions as the US is. There have also been some very embarrassing episodes of "we can't give you any MBTs, because ours are damaged beyond repairs because we let them get flooded" and the like. Clearly, neither the US, nor Russia, nor the European NATO members can sustain long peer or near peer land wars on peacetime footing. That said, what kind of security issues can Europe potentially face? It's surrounded by oceans on three sides, and realistically, only Turkey or Russia can pose any serious security issues. If instability in the Middle East or North Africa are also seen as security issue, which is admittedly a sound argument, then Europe clearly lacks the military capabilities to deal with them. If instead they only need to worry about potential Russian or Turkish invasions, then it's a different picture. No matter the problems with Erdogan, it seems improbable that Turkey would decide to invade it's European neighbors. Although few thought that Putin would try to outright annex Ukraine, so I'm not as confident about that point as I once was. But the only conceivable target of Turkish aggression is Greece, which is one of the bigger military spenders in Europe, and has been reluctant to send military aid to Ukraine for several reasons, one of them being their distrust of Turkey. But even so the rest of Europe outspends Turkey by quite some margin, while Turkey doesn't have a seemingly unlimited front to invade Europe like Russia enjoys. Even current state Europe should be able to repel a Turkish invasion, especially once you factor in good old racism against "Muslim savages", which should stop lover of authoritarian conservative regimes like Orban from trying to sabotage the defense efforts. Meanwhile, Russia is exhausting itself against Ukraine. And the biggest game changer in a conflict between Russia and Europe would imho be the inclusion of air power. Air power that Russia failed spectacularly to use against Ukraine. Europe was able to use air power to good effect against Libya, they just couldn't sustain it for lack of munition. This would surely also happen in a conflict against Russia, but surely Europe could deter the currently depleted Russian forces? Is anybody expecting Putin to invade Estonia any time soon? With Finland (and Sweden) no longer being neutral? European deficiencies in military readiness have been exposed, but Russia has been exposed even more, and is currently bleeding itself dry in Ukraine. Even in the unlikely case that they manage to take the whole country, they'd be spent and won't be a credible threat to the rest of Europe for quite some time. So arguably, as soon as the Russian situation gets resolved, or settles into an obvious stalemate, there would be a real opportunity for Europe to unhitch itself from the US. I don't know why they should do so, as the alliance is very much mutually beneficial, favoring Europe. But what credibly security threats are there to worry about that Europe couldn't handle on it's own?
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Jun 23, 2023 21:27
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Tass reports that Prygozin is under investigation for inciting an armed rebellion. E: gently caress this thread moves fast
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Jun 23, 2023 21:29
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PurpleXVI posted:Yeah there are some very Clancy theories out there. Lemme share my favourite. yeah a lot of the stuff being written is extremely wild, that said there's definitely a crisis of some kind brewing
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Jun 23, 2023 21:30
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i am incredibly skeptical of the reporting wrt wagner right now Me too, that latest Prigozhin video has me literally speechless. My first thought was that someone has a very good doppelganger/ai model of him and has hijacked his account, because that can't possibly be real. PurpleXVI posted:One thing I'll never understand is why more or less every sovereign state depends on privately owned factories to supply them with weapons, vehicles and equipment. It just seems like a titanic, glaring flaw in security policy to let the vagaries of the free market determine whether you get enough missiles or planes or whatever in time, as well as the quality and pricing of them. It used to be different, most military weapons were manufactured by government-ran arsenals as late as the middle of the 19th century. But then private sector was allowed to compete with them, and generally absolutely trounced them both in price and quality. Of course, that mostly held up when producing things standardized by the government and where there always was a competitive market in them. Maybe the model should be re-examined when making very specialized things where there's always going to be just one vendor.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:33
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Has Prigozhin requested more shells yet?
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Jun 23, 2023 21:39
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Jun 23, 2023 21:41
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Tuna-Fish posted:Of course, that mostly held up when producing things standardized by the government and where there always was a competitive market in them. Maybe the model should be re-examined when making very specialized things where there's always going to be just one vendor.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:42
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i am incredibly skeptical of the reporting wrt wagner right now Yeah, between the enshittening of Twitter and the general propensity for people to sensationalize everything it's really hard to assess what's actually a) real and b) significant. I still kind of expect that within a few days it'll be walked back to a nothingburger or some not-much mcnuggets, but  if the sensational stuff turns out to be somewhat accurate.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:45
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672338798691115009 Things are Happening™ huh
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Jun 23, 2023 21:55
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Dandywalken posted:Has Prigozhin requested more shells yet? I have a hunch that he will stop requesting shells, but will be receiving them anyways at substantially higher velocity. From a shell reception rate standpoint that video worked marvelously.
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Jun 23, 2023 22:00
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It's hitting western media. They've gotten pretty adept at filtering out the bullshit in this war, so I'm taking it as being for real.
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Jun 23, 2023 22:03
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it's real insofar as no there's definitely some kind of a crisis unfolding. that much at least is not really disputed by anyone
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Jun 23, 2023 22:12
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PurpleXVI posted:One thing I'll never understand is why more or less every sovereign state depends on privately owned factories to supply them with weapons, vehicles and equipment. It just seems like a titanic, glaring flaw in security policy to let the vagaries of the free market determine whether you get enough missiles or planes or whatever in time, as well as the quality and pricing of them. M-14 vs m-16. It took like 20 years to get the m-14 developed and it was a state armory gun
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Jun 23, 2023 22:25
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The big OSINTs are talking about it too. Something is definitely bound to happen in the next 24 hours.
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