(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Djarum posted:I'll tell you I didn't see this on my bingo card. I don't see this ultimately going well for Prigozhin but this is going to cause a lot of problems for Putin and the Russian government. Prigozhin and Wagner is not something they can just memory hole nor is fighting a war against two fronts, especially when one of them is basically on top of you. Yeah, if there's any substance to this whatsoever it seems like a clear "the winner here is Ukraine" situation. So, good news.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:57
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oh and FSB has opened a criminal case on the grounds of armed revolt https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672331216287154176 Real status: real
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Jun 23, 2023 20:58
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1672328018063130625 It's just a joke. Friday is when the list of foreign agents is updated.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:58
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i amskeptical that this is real in any way beyond prigozhin making some charged statements (and ukrainian messaging efforts seizing the opportunity to signal boosting and create reports of clashes, which no one credible on the russian side seems to actually attest to). maybe i'm wrong, who knows fatherboxx posted:oh and FSB has opened a criminal case on the grounds of armed revolt there's absolutely something going on, but I'm suspicious that Ukrainian accounts would know better than well connected russians Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 20:59
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Djarum posted:I'll tell you I didn't see this on my bingo card. I don't see this ultimately going well for Prigozhin but this is going to cause a lot of problems for Putin and the Russian government. Prigozhin and Wagner is not something they can just memory hole nor is fighting a war against two fronts, especially when one of them is basically on top of you. One aspect of this would be that the Russian Wagner-led ventures in Africa will come to a halt. That will lead to some countries sliding away from Russia's camp.
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Jun 23, 2023 20:59
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I mean the MOD has been pushing to have control over Wagner activities for a while right? Would the African stuff also have fell under the MOD umbrella if they had their way? Definitely didn't see things coming to a head like this.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:01
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WarpedLichen posted:Would the African stuff also have fell under the MOD umbrella if they had their way thought the whole point of wagner was to use it for illegitimate warfare abroad, they're expendable and somewhat deniable.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i am very skeptical that this is real in any way beyond prigozhin making some charged statements (and ukrainian messaging efforts seizing the opportunity to signal boosting and create reports of clashes, which no one credible on the russian side seems to actually attest to). Same, but the twitter chatter seems to be coming from the RU side as well. I don’t expect this to make much of a difference in the war even if real (outside of Wagner being dissolved and people court martialled / thrown out of windows) but maybe Ukraine can seize tactical gains here or there in the confusion? A lot of this reads like a planned controlled demolition of Wagner by the rest of Russian government
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Jun 23, 2023 21:03
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WarpedLichen posted:I mean the MOD has been pushing to have control over Wagner activities for a while right? Would the African stuff also have fell under the MOD umbrella if they had their way? Ehh probably not Those matters require delicate, extremely unofficial connections built upon years of personal involvement - so unless Prigozhin people just shrug and go under new leadership (like, a random chekist failson) with all structure in place, those will fall apart or be sold to the next highest bidder in security services.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:there's absolutely something going on, but I'm suspicious that Ukrainian accounts would know better than well connected russians Oh yeah, Ukrainian accounts love to scattershoot with whatever rumours and bullshit they find, but wartranslated is best source for ru-en translations of russian Telegram channels.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:05
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fatherboxx posted:Oh yeah, Ukrainian accounts love to scattershoot with whatever rumours and bullshit they find, but wartranslated is best source for ru-en translations of russian Telegram channels. yeah I have no issue with him, he certainly picks and chooses what narrative to put forward a bit, but it generally is at least put together out of stuff that is actually being said. anyways I'm just grumpy because ukrainians are doing a very good job mixing in as much bullshit as possible and lol it's a lot to go through. it's a trip seeing the russian style bullshit-firehose turned towards russia
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Jun 23, 2023 21:10
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The story of RU and Wagner troops attacking each other near Bakhmut is by far the most significant rumour, and it's a reasonable argument that it's Ukrainian misinformation given the source. I feel like the most likely outcome here is Prigozhin getting assassinated and this whole thing blowing over without any major consequences. However.... the alternatives are very interesting indeed At the moment, it's a lot of noise without much substance https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672336823568277505
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Jun 23, 2023 21:13
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Herstory Begins Now posted:it's a trip seeing the russian style bullshit-firehose turned towards russia That’s it’s usual target, which is why they probably don’t know what is actually happening.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:15
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I'm getting this from a random Twitter nobody, so no idea if it is true, but they say Rybar says that he recording was made about 20 hours ago, so Prigozhin might have got himself to a safe place before releasing it? But again, could fake, either from the Twitter nobody or from Rybar.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:20
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Edit: bad source
MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 21:20
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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672338029355102210 If this is an actual quote holy gently caress.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:21
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672339254335221761
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Jun 23, 2023 21:23
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*edit* drat it I am your shadow ^^ Lets see if he's actually got a plan or if he's just self destructing I guess
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Jun 23, 2023 21:23
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This is an astonishing precipice between something very historically consequential and absolutely nothing at all. Guess I'm  for the night
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Jun 23, 2023 21:24
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Reasonable take on this https://twitter.com/War_Takes/status/1672332802765864960
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Jun 23, 2023 21:25
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672338798691115009
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Jun 23, 2023 21:26
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MegaZeroX posted:Don't know if this true, but... Dont post Sushko in this thread, he mostly posts fantasy content (in this case - too)
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Jun 23, 2023 21:27
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Having a giant internal fight in between different halves of your armed forces in the opening stages of an active counter-offensive seems… less than ideal.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:30
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fatherboxx posted:Dont post Sushko in this thread, he mostly posts fantasy content (in this case - too) Thanks for pointing that out. Will edit that out.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:30
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LifeSunDeath posted:it sounds like he's saying he's going to march to moscow and regime change, but he also says he wants to maintain presidential authority, is he threatening putin or someone else? Could this be a play by Putin, via Prigozhin, to lay the blame of Russian military failures at the feet of some siloviki, purge them, and give him the needed runway to take more power & control in order to prep the masses for full fascism/total war?
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Jun 23, 2023 21:32
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Rumor, but: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672341624712511489
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Jun 23, 2023 21:33
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If this is real it is kinda surprising the amount of personal loyalty to Prigozhin Wagner has. I would have expected them to cut him loose and bend the knee to MOD way before. Either that or they have more insight into the weakness of the Russian state apparatus and think they have a legit shot at accomplishing anything.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:33
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Nenonen posted:He should just challenge Shoigu to a cage match, it seems to be the latest fad. If only the Tsar knew....
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Jun 23, 2023 21:34
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Xiahou Dun posted:Having a giant internal fight in between different halves of your armed forces in the opening stages of an active counter-offensive seems… less than ideal. This is how I've expected the war to end. This particular fight may not be the big one, but as Russia's combat capacity continues to get atritted, more and more actors will see opportunities until finally there's one that the MoD can't handle and it all comes apart.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:34
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Looks like Prigozhin forgot to place a briefcase bomb under the Kremlin meeting room table with Putin and Shoigu before starting his putsch.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:35
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WarpedLichen posted:If this is real it is kinda surprising the amount of personal loyalty to Prigozhin Wagner has. I would have expected them to cut him loose and bend the knee to MOD way before.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:36
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From Meduza:quote:Sources close to the Kremlin appear to have been taken by surprise. “Clearly, he didn’t coordinate any of this with the president’s administration,” says one insider familiar with the situation in the President’s Office. “The president trusts the military leadership at the moment. The Ukrainian counteroffensive proved not to be such a great threat. In any case, this is the way it comes across. Whether Prigozhin coordinated any surprise steps with the law enforcement or security structures, or with Putin personally, I don’t know,” says the same speaker.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:39
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In the Russian defence system, the people are defended by two separate yet equally important groups: The Wagner Group, who recruit criminals, and the Ministry of Defence, who seek to purge the Wagnerites. These are their stories. 
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Jun 23, 2023 21:40
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672343773907484674
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Jun 23, 2023 21:41
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drat, I chose the wrong week to finally delete my Twitter account.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:43
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From Meduza:quote:Another Kremlin source suggests that Prigozhin might be “bluffing,” and that his threats will not lead to any real steps. “He’s blown his roof to make such claims, while a system-minded person would not even think such things,” says the insider.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:43
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BBC Russia says roadblocks set up on the Don Highway highway (leads to Rostov), and soldiers have orders to shoot if anyone tries to go past it
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Jun 23, 2023 21:46
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Moon Slayer posted:drat, I chose the wrong week to finally delete my Twitter account.  here's a wish to all of ya: if possible, when there's an embedded message that is longer than what can be shown, quote the text here so no one has to go to twitter to read it. Unless there's nothing of interest in the rest of the tweet.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:49
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672345605115396097
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Jun 23, 2023 21:50
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Nenonen posted:
You can just click on the tweet to read it? I get asking for paywalled stuff but cmon it’s just clicking a link.
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Jun 23, 2023 21:51
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