Organ Fiend posted:

Стрелков Игорь Иванович #КРП posted:

So that's it:
1) The Wagner mutiny began obviously prematurely. The front is not broken, the ukras are not winning. In this situation, mutiny means a "stab in the back" and the army will not support it.
2) The prematurity of the mutiny (which was clearly planned in advance) is caused by a simple fact: Prigozhin would certainly be deprived of the main part of his troops in the near future - he would not be able to maintain even a 30,000-strong military group at his own personal expense, without the support of the state (read - funds and materials from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation) - he would definitely not be able for more than a couple of months (and then - hardly);
3) At the moment there is no video, etc. evidence of active actions of the "Wagners". Information is received that their forces in the rear training camps did not know anything at all and were not ready to act. With a high probability, only a part of the units concentrated in the Luhansk region takes part in the mutiny.
4) The "March to Moscow" is extremely difficult for Wagner - a large group of tanks on their own will simply not reach Moscow, it is generally useless to drag artillery to Moscow, and advancing on light armored vehicles means risking defeat on the road, which is generally easier to do. Everything rests solely on the presence of loyal units ready to carry out the order and open fire to defeat ("Akhmat" may well perform, for example, and not only "Akhmat")
5) If by the morning (that is, after 5-6 hours) "Wagner" does not achieve significant success (and so far no one has heard about any of his successes) and military units do not openly cross over to his side, the mutiny will drag on and every day its final success will be more and more unlikely... well, if the Kremlin does not poo poo themselves out of habit, of course, and does not immediately begin to "look for compromises" and substitute Prigozhin for the use of the overworked nose of a well-known VIP official.

Стрелков Игорь Иванович #КРП posted:

And, yes, I thought that something like this would be closer to autumn, but rather - already in autumn and necessarily against the background of new defeats at the front. Although in advance (more than once, who has been on my page for a long time - can testify) I assumed publicly that Prigozhin could play a significant role in the coup or its attempt. Therefore, for me, the mutiny right now has also come as a bit of a surprise. The hasty withdrawal of Wagner from the front and Prigozhin's active struggle for a "place near Belgorod" - prompted me to think that he was preparing a "march on Moscow" (from Belgorod to Moscow is definitely much closer than from Lugansk). But the competition was won by "Akhmat". And finally, Prigozhin's actions are really a stab in the back and I can't perceive it any other way. Not to mention the fact that his possible rise to power will immediately cause:
- an insurrection in Chechnya and the beginning of the 3rd Chechen campaign (inevitably);
- a very likely collapse of the front and the invasion of the enemy in the Crimea, the fall of Donetsk and Lugansk;
- the beginning of the process of disintegration of the Russian Federation;
- A short, but very dirty and bloody period of the "dictatorship of the Latin American model." Without rules and without laws - according to criminal "concepts".

Maximo Roboto posted:

https://twitter.com/getfiscal/status/1672408034809638913

Mrs. Dash posted:

I feel like prighozin keeps posting these "we are on the outskirts of Moscow" tapes while his plane is landing in Switzerland with whatever cash he could grab coz he realized his shitposting caught up with him

Ivan Shitskin posted:

I bet he will have no trouble getting to Moscow. I keep hearing that Russia is just a giant gas station with nukes so he can stop and fill up his tank column plenty of times on the way

Too Many Birds posted:

something is happening

Gresh posted:

here, what it is ain't exactly clear

theres a man with a gun over there

Ivan Shitskin posted:

I bet he will have no trouble getting to Moscow. I keep hearing that Russia is just a giant gas station with nukes so he can stop and fill up his tank column plenty of times on the way

Gresh posted:

Assuming this isn't some massive psyop, are the Western war careerists giddy with excitement at the prospect of a meaner, crazier Russian leader taking over the world's largest arsenal? Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC after all are pretty much the only group on the Russian side of the war that has consistently defeated the Western led, trained, and equipped Ukrainian military on the battlefield—wrestling 3 big cities from their control.

If post Cold War world history has taught us anything, US sponsored regime changes always go smoothly with no unintended consequences or something worse! Careful what you wish for.

sullat posted:

It's not getting to Moscow that's the problem it's the retreat that will do him in.

Gresh posted:

Assuming this isn't some massive psyop, are the Western war careerists giddy with excitement at the prospect of a meaner, crazier Russian leader taking over the world's largest arsenal? Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC after all are pretty much the only group on the Russian side of the war that has consistently defeated the Western led, trained, and equipped Ukrainian military on the battlefield—wrestling 3 big cities from their control.

If post Cold War world history has taught us anything, US sponsored regime changes always go smoothly with no unintended consequences or something worse! Careful what you wish for.

Lostconfused posted:

<sub>(from t.me/strelkovii/5642, via tgsa)

(from t.me/strelkovii/5643, via tgsa)</sub>

Horizon Burning posted:

read the last ten pages or so and i don't really have any idea what the gently caress is happening

breathing aids posted:

I finally started listening to radio war nerd #382 today, so the discussion of how blasé westerners treat nukes is hitting harder than it otherwise would

e: annibale is a 40k fan?

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

I don't know if the western war careerists believe Prigozhin will take over smoothly (I think they'd be right to think that, it seems totally implausible for this guy that nobody likes).

They just expect him to cause enough chaos to hasten Russia's demise. At best (from a western point of view) Russia will collapse into civil war and expend its whole arsenal shooting at itself.

All the videos of Russian troops driving around implying the Wagner coup is going ahead are funny when no evidence is presented that can distinguish whether they are Wagner troops or regular army (and are far more likely to be the latter simply comparing the size of the organisations)