(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Men with a mix of equipment are taking positions outside the MoD building in Rostov. https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1672427174651998208?s=20
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Jun 24, 2023 03:16
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 09:30 |
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672426443735805952 Well, okay then, I'm willing to start believing that Wagner really is attempting some kind of putsch. Also, I'm beer-belly spiderman taking a smoke break on the corner and watching all this. e: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672427025284341765 Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 03:16
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Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov?
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Jun 24, 2023 03:19
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Willo567 posted:Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov? Willo, before you post we all really need you to stop and ask yourself: "is this likely something some random idiots on something awful dot com would know?"
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Jun 24, 2023 03:20
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Willo567 posted:Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov? It will not. This is a hail mary pass before Priggy got removed. The question is how far he will get, in terms of actually fighting, before one of his lieutenants calls it a day and turns him over.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:21
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Scrawny dude in a polo shirt and khakis sitting at a desk sighs, stands up, walks across the room, and presses the reset button on the "x days since the last coup attempt" sign
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Jun 24, 2023 03:22
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Another angle from R-o-D: https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672429529191571457 That's, uh, actually a lot of troops.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:22
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RockWhisperer posted:Don't they need to be combat ready and off of the trailer considering they could be ambushed along the highway? I seriously don't know and am just asking. Depends on what ambushes you. Source : I was in such a fight. (Don't try ambushing a column of tanks on trucks unless you can handle a lot of machineguns fire. Also 40 machineguns firing at once makes a lot of light.) That said, yes you'd want to clear the route before putting armor on trucks. I don't know that Wagner has significant armored elements, though . They're mostly light infantry. They don't even seem to have much organic artillery, other than mortars. If Progizhin manages to get support from Russian military officers who matter, then this might be more than a sideshow. I'm not a Kremlinilogist but I'd be surprised if Shoigu doesn't have firm control over his military.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:22
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Willo567 posted:Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov? Somewhere between "more likely than if Wagner forces hadn't reached Rostov yet," and "less likely than if they had already conquered Moscow."
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Jun 24, 2023 03:23
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In an irony of irony Wagner will take Moscow in three days.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:23
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Moon Slayer posted:Another angle from R-o-D: That second photo is just so strange:  ... Someone with a rifle in front taking aim, and two civilians in shorts and sandals in background.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:25
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RockWhisperer posted:Don't they need to be combat ready and off of the trailer considering they could be ambushed along the highway? I seriously don't know and am just asking. I’m very far from expert on this so if anyone knows better, please jump in. I think strikes on convoys moving along the road are most likely to come via missiles or airstrikes. Artillery can be a threat too, but I’m not sure that the Russian interior would have had the opportunity to get that set up. Against those sort of threats, my understanding is that having a tank scooting around on its own wouldn’t provide much advantage. Once they get close to fortified positions, I imagine they’d offload the tanks.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:25
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I wonder what this means for the counter offensive in Ukraine if Wagner truly pulled out of Russia. Seems like it would be a pretty significant weakening of Russia's forces.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:26
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Willo567 posted:Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov? Things like this poo poo start growing like a wildfire. With more and more of Prigozhin's reality becoming concrete with these military movements and not just on the internet, people begin to reevaluate where they are and begin to join in. As for Rostov, Rostov is a major, maybe the most critical, logistics hub for the war against Ukraine, since it not only supplies both the Donbass republics, but also the southern front via Crimea. I'd imagine if there's fighting there or a mutiny among the RUAF and the Rosgvardia, then things will breakdown fairly quickly.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:27
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So where is that turret pointed at?
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Jun 24, 2023 03:28
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Man, they weren't kidding about being poorly outfitted with gear. Just  at the dude in the blue tshirt.Boris Galerkin posted:So where is that turret pointed at? Shoigu's corner office, inshallah.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:28
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Just apropos of nothing : when was the last time we had proof of life on Putin? I.e. him doing a thing we can be sure happened, not a released statement or a generic video or whatever.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:29
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OddObserver posted:That second photo is just so strange: Talking to my veteran friends, war is very strange. You'll have the most oblivious people involved in combat zones.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:29
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Boris Galerkin posted:So where is that turret pointed at? I'm guessing the MoD building. It'd be a different vibe if they were pointing their guns outward but they aren't.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:30
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Boris Galerkin posted:So where is that turret pointed at? Gerasimov's office.  Efb
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Jun 24, 2023 03:30
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KillHour posted:Man, they weren't kidding about being poorly outfitted with gear. Just I had to double-take when I first saw that, because these guys look like airsofters in their mixed gear. Some have steel helmet, some have Western-like kevlar, there's the guy in the blue t-shirt. These have to be Wagner guys.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:31
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672426443735805952 If you look carefully here someone has placed bricks to incite violence to discredit wagner.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:33
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Apparently Wagner troops entering the MoD building https://nitter.net/avindman/status/1672428255897608198?t=gPYUDbEVxd53InjbAfqi5A&s=46#m
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Jun 24, 2023 03:33
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Xiahou Dun posted:Just apropos of nothing : when was the last time we had proof of life on Putin? I.e. him doing a thing we can be sure happened, not a released statement or a generic video or whatever. You probably won't have to wonder for long since if he's not incapacitated, he's going to be apoplectic about this.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:34
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168 Well that was fast.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:37
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Nitrousoxide posted:Apparently Wagner troops entering the MoD building There's been some convincing clarification this just taking the block, nobody's in yet.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:38
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168 There was probably no resistance. Gerasimov and Shoigu are probably not there, either. I guess the civil war is on.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:38
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 When I saw this stuff trending on Twitter earlier today, I thought it was just nonsense. Can't imagine Wagner succeeds but if they fail, I guess that's one less tool for Putin at least.Weird that none of the U.S. news channels seem to be covering this, even though it's the headline story on CNN's website.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:38
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168 To put this in perspective, this is like Blackwater mercenaries surrounding the Pentagon and walking in the front door without resistance. Some poo poo is extremely going down.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:39
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168 Yeah that's what we're gonna see. Either this is going to escalate or flame out quickly. Prigozhin probably actually knows the situation of the military units, and they're all tied up in Ukraine right now. I really don't see how this succeeds with such comparatively low manpower but stranger things have happened. I think if he survives a week then an actual successful coup isn't 0%. The longer he lives and is doing a rebellion the weaker and out of control the government looks.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:39
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Young Freud posted:As for Rostov, Rostov is a major, maybe the most critical, logistics hub for the war against Ukraine, since it not only supplies both the Donbass republics, but also the southern front via Crimea. I'd imagine if there's fighting there or a mutiny among the RUAF and the Rosgvardia, then things will breakdown fairly quickly. Does anyone have a sense of how long Russian front line positions can keep operating with any effectiveness if the Rostov hub is shut down?
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Jun 24, 2023 03:40
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Maybe they're betting on the low morale of Russias army to not want to intervene? Idk this is all very uncharted territory, gonna be a crazy next few days I guess.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:41
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KillHour posted:To put this in perspective, this is like Blackwater mercenaries surrounding the Pentagon and walking in the front door without resistance. Less the Pentagon and more CENTCOM, but now I'm splitting hairs.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:41
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KillHour posted:To put this in perspective, this is like Blackwater mercenaries surrounding the Pentagon and walking in the front door without resistance. Considering the equivalent of the Pentagon would be in Moscow, isn’t this more like a regional military HQ in Atlanta or something?
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Jun 24, 2023 03:42
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KillHour posted:To put this in perspective, this is like Blackwater mercenaries surrounding the Pentagon and walking in the front door without resistance. I'd say more like Blackwater rolling up to MacDill Air Force Base and strolling into CENTCOM. e: beaten
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Jun 24, 2023 03:42
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Wagner will absolutely need some proper Russian troops flipping to him to have a chance at this, or just succeeding in a decapitation strike (which I don't think he's in the right spot to pull off).
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Jun 24, 2023 03:42
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672431977503367168 this is loving insane
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Jun 24, 2023 03:43
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Turns out that the Russian army is the second best army in Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:43
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Count on goons to take an understandable analogy and ruin it by being slightly more accurate but failing to take into account that only military nerds know what CENTCOM is and military nerds don't need the analogy to begin with.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:44
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 09:30 |
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Deteriorata posted:Turns out that the Russian army is the second best army in Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:44
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