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Am I right that no matter who prevails in this internal grudge match, it’s not going to affect Russia’’s desire to keep fighting in Ukraine?
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Jun 24, 2023 06:10
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Popete posted:I'm not sure I buy Prigohzin stance that he's just after Shoigu and is upset at how incompetently the war is being run (although that is probably part of it). Let's say he accomplishes removing Shoigu then what? I can't really see Putin being happy with this insurrection and letting him return back to the front like nothing happened.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:11
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Nelson Mandingo posted:If Prigozhin gets his pound of flesh he's pretty much the actual leader of Russia. The idea Putin isn't on TV right now condemning this, trying to suppress this has me asking questions. Maybe the discussion in Rostov is to find out wtf Prigozhin would accept to return to barracks. If "fire Shoigu" is enough, Putin might decide it's cheaper to fire a possibly unpopular defense minister, so maybe coming out on TV attacking the insurrection isn't the best plan? If, bizarrely, Prigozhin is seen as a popular figure... But yeah staying silent erodes your position*real* fast.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:15
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Eric Cantonese posted:Am I right that no matter who prevails in this internal grudge match, it’s not going to affect Russia’’s desire to keep fighting in Ukraine? Yes, that’s correct. Prigozhin just wants to be the one calling the shots in Ukraine. See also him single handedly making Bakhmut the main focus of Russian campaigning over the last ~8 months in order to aggrandize his position and claim glory for Wagner.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:17
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He can't exactly compromise on demands to replace a loyal commander with a Wagner-aligned one either. I assume there is silence because in a situation room somewhere people are weighting whether there's still any hope of de-escalating out of this.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:19
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Budzilla posted:Prigohzin's power within Russia was about to be removed. All PMCs were supposed to be absorbed into the military by July 1st and without it he has nothing, he can't exactly go to another country with his wealth so he probably is making a gamble even though the outcome is probably bad. Ah ok, makes a lot more sense with that context.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:20
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672468948141391874 Does he have nukes? https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1672434767638437888
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Jun 24, 2023 06:21
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MeinPanzer posted:Yes, that’s correct. Prigozhin just wants to be the one calling the shots in Ukraine. See also him single handedly making Bakhmut the main focus of Russian campaigning over the last ~8 months in order to aggrandize his position and claim glory for Wagner. Is he one of the better commanders? If this ends up being a net positive for Russia’s war effort, that’d be sad.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:23
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Eric Cantonese posted:Am I right that no matter who prevails in this internal grudge match, it’s not going to affect Russia’’s desire to keep fighting in Ukraine? I mean yes from what has been publicly stated, but I feel like this is really a who knows situation. I can easily see Prigozhin saying that Russia's war machine has been squandered and irreparably damaged by Shoigu, so they need to pull out for now. Everything is so bizarre, I'm not counting anything out. I figured Prigozhin would be dead already, but here he is.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:25
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Charlz Guybon posted:https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672468948141391874 Doesn't Putin have their equivalent of the brief case and Prigozhin can't use them?
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Jun 24, 2023 06:26
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Diogines posted:Can someone who has a better understanding of the situation than I do, please explain the likelihood of this leading to (1)the Russian state imploding into anarchy I'm an idiot on an internet forum so take what I say with a grain of salt. One general historical trend is that regimes and leaders who depend on instability and infighting among the elite to maintain power tend to collapse violently (Porfirio Diaz of Mexico is my favorite example of this). Putin very much depends on his subordinates being divided to maintain his power. This current infighting is the result of that. As of today, I'd say the 5 year outlook for the current Russian government is extremely bad, and the chances of it getting replaced by something more functional aren't great.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:28
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Nelson Mandingo posted:If Prigozhin gets his pound of flesh he's pretty much the actual leader of Russia. The idea Putin isn't on TV right now condemning this, trying to suppress this has me asking questions. Say, has Jeffrey posted lately?
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Jun 24, 2023 06:28
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is he one of the better commanders? If this ends up being a net positive for Russia’s war effort, that’d be sad. Instability is never good for your war effort. This is going to create enemies. It's undermining Putin's power. That's 3 helicopters and soldiers killed today that could have been used in the war. Etc. So no, unless Prigozhin is literally about to get rid of all the corruption and graft in the russian side of the war I don't see them prosecuting it significantly better. And again, he'd basically be the leader of Russia at that point.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:29
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Ukraine is gonna capitalize on this asap, yeah?
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Jun 24, 2023 06:29
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Willo567 posted:Doesn't Putin have their equivalent of the brief case and Prigozhin can't use them? No, Prigozhin has the briefcase and he's launching twenty ICBMs directly at your balls.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:29
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Willo567 posted:Doesn't Putin have their equivalent of the brief case and Prigozhin can't use them? I wonder if this is a gimmick or legitimate mental illness? Yes, the warlord Prigozhin has nukes now. I'm sorry, Willow.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672468948141391874 Those Tom Clancy novels are looking more and more realistic by the hour!
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Jun 24, 2023 06:32
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672476452292263936
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Jun 24, 2023 06:32
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I wonder if this is a gimmick or legitimate mental illness? I am not worried about that, I was only responding because I don't think he can use them even if he has them. Besides, he was calling out dipshits like Solovyov for wanting to use tactical nukes in response to the Kremlin drone attack in early May.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:34
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Mercury Ballistic posted:Ukraine is gonna capitalize on this asap, yeah? We'll call them up.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:34
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Willo567 posted:Doesn't Putin have their equivalent of the brief case and Prigozhin can't use them? Bad news willo, the nukes are inbound to willotown right now. don't look out the window, hurry get under the couch and tuck in your nutsack
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Jun 24, 2023 06:35
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6.5hr drive from Voronezh to Moscow. Google tells me, however, that this route has tolls (!), so that may slow up the convoy if they don't want to get a ticket in the mail.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:36
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Surly taking 25000 men out of the front line is going to allow Ukraine a chance to break through a lot easier. Where's Brown Moses and a geo-location when you need him.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:37
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MeinPanzer posted:Yes, that’s correct. Prigozhin just wants to be the one calling the shots in Ukraine. See also him single handedly making Bakhmut the main focus of Russian campaigning over the last ~8 months in order to aggrandize his position and claim glory for Wagner. I'm curious about how that gels with him starting the day by saying that the justification for the war was all lies and negotiation was the way forward. Not that hypocrisy is a fatal flaw in these situations. Though trying to get people on side by saying their comrades/family were sent to their deaths under false pretences doesn't seem to imply that he would be eager to keep it going long term.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:39
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about how far are they from moscow by tank?
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Jun 24, 2023 06:39
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mutata posted:6.5hr drive from Voronezh to Moscow. Google tells me, however, that this route has tolls (!), so that may slow up the convoy if they don't want to get a ticket in the mail. Putin's master plan to slow them down: 
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Jun 24, 2023 06:39
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https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1672479360723345408
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Jun 24, 2023 06:41
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Comstar posted:Surly taking 25000 men out of the front line is going to allow Ukraine a chance to break through a lot easier. Bellingcat's here. Brown Moses last posted in May, and last posted in the thread in late April. This may have been related to the modloss.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:42
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672466220988129281?s=20 Pictured: the head of Wagnar has his gun. The commander of the southern command and deputy defence minister does not. Conclusion: they are now his prisoners.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:45
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Is there a source for this footage besides your Tweet? I don't recognize it
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Jun 24, 2023 06:47
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672481838890209281 finally
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Jun 24, 2023 06:49
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Willo567 posted:Is there a source for this footage besides your Tweet? I don't recognize it "Russian propagandists." https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672479911980724225
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Jun 24, 2023 06:49
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Willo567 posted:Is there a source for this footage besides your Tweet? I don't recognize it You can see huge red traffic lines in that area on google maps rn. They haven’t turned off live view. It looks like Kyiv did back in feb when Russian columns were moving down major highways before they took down the traffic monitor. I assumed it was Russian military or cops moving south though From the tip of the road closure google maps gives 5 hours to moscow in a normal car ethanol fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 06:51
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there's a pretty good post in the gbs thread about nukes tldr there's no particular reason to be worried about prigozhin stealing them in his revolt (at least unless he wins and becomes the new head of state) https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4026289&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=464#post532734622
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Jun 24, 2023 06:51
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Emsee posted:I'm curious about how that gels with him starting the day by saying that the justification for the war was all lies and negotiation was the way forward. The situation is complex, but Prigozhin is basically best understood as a warlord. He performed a service for Putin by creating a mercenary arm of the military that could do a lot of dirty work for the regime and for it he was rewarded with a considerable amount of leeway in how he used those forces. Like any power player in these kinds of situations, he’d probably like to take supreme power if he could, but for now he’s using anything at his disposal to save his own hide. Prigozhin has been butting heads with Shoigu and the top brass basically since the war began, but a few things have changed recently: 1) the only real notable Russian advance in Ukraine, the strategically insignificant victory over Bakhmut, was his pet project. He threw huge amounts of Wagner manpower at it. 2) He has been complaining constantly about how he can’t get enough ammunition and other supplies, and basically has been claiming that the MoD has been hamstringing Wagner because they make the rest of the army look bad. 3) There have been open conflicts between Wagner and regular army troops, particularly escalating violence by Wagner troops in an effort to take control of sectors and materiel. This all undoubtedly led to: 4) Putin moving over the last couple of months to fold Wagner into the regular army structure. This obviously poses a huge threat to Prigozhin, who is now touting himself as the true fighter for Russia. His line is basically, “Wagner has achieved victory in Bakhmut! See what we can do if we aren’t hamstrung by the corrupt thugs at the top? The war was compromised from the beginning by my enemies, but now I can eliminate them and restore glory to Russia.”
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Jun 24, 2023 06:56
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Comstar posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672466220988129281?s=20 https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1672467957828530176
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Jun 24, 2023 06:57
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he's just going to ramble on about trans people or something.
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Jun 24, 2023 06:58
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Does anyone know what Lukashenko's jet is doing? They turned off the transponder when they flew over Russia and turned it on when they left. They are now over Turkey. https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672420961138757639
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Jun 24, 2023 07:04
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someone woke me up from a sound sleep with a text that things are popping off in russia before i dig blearily dig into what's the details of the situation, is this something worth waking me up for?
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Jun 24, 2023 07:05
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That one loving tank they had in reserve for the victory day parade gonna be doing serious duty trying to cover all of moscow from an assault
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Jun 24, 2023 07:05
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