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WaltherFeng posted:How is Wagner supposed to operate without the army's logistics network? They still need ammo, fuel and food. Or are they literally looting army bases. I think they're basically trying to run the blitzkrieg strategy that Russia had for the start of the Ukrainian war, go fast and take capital within a day. Then you have the state resources under your control to supply the army. We'll see how much they can take and hold or if they get bogged down at some point and get stuck
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Jun 24, 2023 08:12
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Google Jeb Bush posted:I wish I knew which goon I first heard it from, it's buried somewhere in one of the ancient history or possibly milhist threads and I've been gleefully repeating the story ever since. It refers to the rebellion which lead to the fall of the Quin dynasty: https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/85j254/til_of_the_dazexiang_uprising_in_qin_china_2/
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Jun 24, 2023 08:15
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WaltherFeng posted:How is Wagner supposed to operate without the army's logistics network? They still need ammo, fuel and food. Or are they literally looting army bases. Yes, they beelined for military objects in Rostov and Voronezh. As for non military stuff such as fuel and basic provisions, there's little an army of sociopaths can't get in a city of over 1 million.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:16
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WaltherFeng posted:How is Wagner supposed to operate without the army's logistics network? They still need ammo, fuel and food. Or are they literally looting army bases. I know it's Marco Rubio, but he is on relevant committees (intelligence, foreign relations). https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1672428534877286404?t=hY4zFU65B6C0Ou2Yc38Q8g&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 08:17
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steinrokkan posted:Yes, they beelined for military objects in Rostov and Voronezh. As for non military stuff such as fuel and basic provisions, there's little an army of sociopaths can't get in a city of over 1 million. I assume their game plan is such a rapid tempo that they don't have time to piss around doing atrocities. Either they get Wagner vehicles in Red Square in the next day or two or they know they've lost. But if they get bogged down without being wiped out then things could get a lot more dicey. Then again, if Prigozhin can convince regular army that he's ultimately on their side and turn some, and they have control of one or two oblasts, they may be able to make use of supply lines and some level of production without needing to be pricks about it. There are so many ways things could go right now, though, that this is all full speculation.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:21
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Watching the Russian Civil War kick off was not how I expected to spend my night. Hopefully Wagner dudes don't start defecting en masse now that it's obvious there will be no deals.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:26
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Grain of salt since afaik grey_zone is run by or closely linked to Wagner, but (google translated)
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Jun 24, 2023 08:27
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I expected to get high and watch Minecraft videos on YouTube, and I've mostly done that, but yeah, this is also quite unexpected.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:30
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acidx posted:Watching the Russian Civil War kick off was not how I expected to spend my night. Hopefully Wagner dudes don't start defecting en masse now that it's obvious there will be no deals. I'm not sure we really want Wagner to win. Putin is a piece of poo poo and a coward with delusions of grandeur but he can openly admit that threatening nukes isn't useful. I'm not exactly comfortable with a psychopathic nazi-adjacent warlord obtaining nukes. The ideal situation is Prigozhin does well enough that Putin has to recall the soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war. And then Prigozhin loses.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:37
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Flavahbeast posted:Grain of salt since afaik grey_zone is run by or closely linked to Wagner, but run by wagner, yes
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Jun 24, 2023 08:38
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acidx posted:Watching the Russian Civil War kick off was not how I expected to spend my night. Hopefully Wagner dudes don't start defecting en masse now that it's obvious there will be no deals. My primary hope in this weirdly sudden development is minimum suffering for the Russian civilians (and conscripts), which happens to include "i'd really rather urban fighting didn't happen" but uh if Prigozhin reaches Moscow it's either urban fighting or declare him co-emperor, neither of which is good for anybody who isn't Prigozhin. poo poo's wild. Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm not sure we really want Wagner to win. Putin is a piece of poo poo and a coward with delusions of grandeur but he can openly admit that threatening nukes isn't useful. I'm not exactly comfortable with a psychopathic nazi-adjacent warlord obtaining nukes. The ideal situation is Prigozhin does well enough that Putin has to recall the soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war. And then Prigozhin loses. yeah that's probably it i guess e: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672388055590731777?s=20 Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 08:38
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm not sure we really want Wagner to win. Putin is a piece of poo poo and a coward with delusions of grandeur but he can openly admit that threatening nukes isn't useful. I'm not exactly comfortable with a psychopathic nazi-adjacent warlord obtaining nukes. The ideal situation is Prigozhin does well enough that Putin has to recall the soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war. And then Prigozhin loses. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuiK7jcC1fY Prigozhin is the lizard, now we have to find the snakes and the gorillas...
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Jun 24, 2023 08:41
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Tbf if Prigozhin did indeed talk poo poo about the war and say it's not to the benefit of ordinary Russians, it may tie his hands if he wins. Kind of asking to get Praetorian Guarded if you win a coup on the strength of a promise to stop wasting lives in a useless war and then to continue the war
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Jun 24, 2023 08:42
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Given the reports of open fighting between Wagner and Russian troops around Bakhmut and that this was one of the factors precipitating this revolt, I wonder if the Ukrainian offensive there might be able to take advantage and punch through? It seems like it might be one of the softest spots now along Russia’s defensive lines if Russian troops there are occupied or thinned out.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:44
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Personally I doubt Putin or Prigozhin survive the next year or two regardless of who wins. Seems like the system would be irrevocably destabilized in either event.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:44
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Staluigi posted:That one loving tank they had in reserve for the victory day parade gonna be doing serious duty trying to cover all of moscow from an assault
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Jun 24, 2023 08:47
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm not sure we really want Wagner to win. Putin is a piece of poo poo and a coward with delusions of grandeur but he can openly admit that threatening nukes isn't useful. I'm not exactly comfortable with a psychopathic nazi-adjacent warlord obtaining nukes. The ideal situation is Prigozhin does well enough that Putin has to recall the soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war. And then Prigozhin loses. We absolutely do not want Wagner to win. Prigozhin is a psychopathic monster who likes murdering people with sledgehammers. The thought of him in any sort of position of power should send chills down everyone's spine.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:47
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I hope they bring Russia down around their ankles.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:49
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Captain Oblivious posted:Personally I doubt Putin or Prigozhin survive the next year or two regardless of who wins. Seems like the system would be irrevocably destabilized in either event. This is my thinking now too. This has gone too far to be swept under the rug. At best Putin might hope for a purge as in Turkey post-2016 coup, but his power has been so closely tied to his absolute control of the state and military that it’s hard to envision that successfully reestablishing stability.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:50
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Captain Oblivious posted:Personally I doubt Putin or Prigozhin survive the next year or two regardless of who wins. Seems like the system would be irrevocably destabilized in either event. Putin has to pull very hard on the ol' stabbed in the back myth. The problem of being a strongman is once you're weak, even once, you can never be strong again.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:51
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https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672511175203119104
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Jun 24, 2023 08:54
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Also Putin is learning in real time, as has every leader in loving history who's footsteps he's following why you don't make mercenaries a pillar of your military. They work pretty well when they're paid and winning easy fights. The moment things get hard, they turn on you.
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Jun 24, 2023 08:55
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Wake up, CNN! It's time for Decision 2023!
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Jun 24, 2023 08:55
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...they really did project their own fragility right onto Ukraine, didn't they?
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Jun 24, 2023 08:59
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Also Putin is learning in real time, as has every leader in loving history who's footsteps he's following why you don't make mercenaries a pillar of your military. They work pretty well when they're paid and winning easy fights. The moment things get hard, they turn on you. That's not really true. Mercenaries and generally non-state military forces have been very effective, there are even many examples of reliability and loyalty. You can find a whole bunch of examples of state militaries turning on their governments in both this and the last century.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:00
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Nelson Mandingo posted:My man is moving on Moscow. It doesn't matter if his objectives are exactly what he says. This is a rebellion or coup attempt. Letting it slide is an act of extreme weakness in a society that abhors it. Fair point. It just seems that if his pubic claim is that his enemies in the MoD deceived Putin to launch the invasion and that he's doing this for the ordinary Russians and the rank and file soldiers, then he can't really turn around and say. "Well, in for a penny, in for a pound. Get back out there, lads." Of course it's entirely possible he's not thought that far ahead and he's a very desperate man.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:01
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Randarkman posted:That's not really true. Mercenaries and generally non-state military forces have been very effective, there are even many examples of reliability and loyalty. You can find a whole bunch of examples of state militaries turning on their governments in both this and the last century. I would take the full source of my post as not inaccurate. You're not wrong, after all. Mercenaries have been used in every conflict and always will be. That being said mercenaries generally get the reputation as being untrustworthy or unreliable for good reasons. Just look at how much of a headache Blackwater caused the United States in Iraq as a good example. That's why I make the point that making them a pillar of your military and then sending them into difficulty can be a huge mistake. Someone who is willing to simply kill other people for money more likely has no problem killing you for personal gain either. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 09:15
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Makes it that much more of a nailbiter, I hope we'll see what's actually happening through propaganda etc. soon.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:18
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well, caught up and ready to collapse back to bed. life finds ways to continue to surprise whatever the outcome of this, surely it is once again reminds me why i don't subscribe to the realist school of thought. the idea that people are rational actors and events and outcomes can be predicted with cold rationality by serious actors must give the gods fits of laughter
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Jun 24, 2023 09:20
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That's not what the realist school is or why is called that though.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:21
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educate me on it, i'll be paying very close attention
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Jun 24, 2023 09:23
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I would take the full source of my post as not inaccurate. You're not wrong, after all. Mercenaries have been used in every conflict and always will be. That being said mercenaries generally get the reputation as being untrustworthy or unreliable for good reasons. Just look at how much of a headache Blackwater caused the United States in Iraq as a good example. And there are dozens of examples of this throughout history.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:25
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:educate me on it, i'll be paying very close attention https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relations/ Realism just means the reality in which actors make decisions exists independently on their will / intentions / cognition / ethics etc, as opposed to idealism.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:31
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Does Wagner have any anti-air weapons capable of downing jets? If not, they may face some interesting times when trying to move on Moscow proper.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:44
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It's looking a bit tense on the streets of Vostov https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672525243942830083
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Jun 24, 2023 09:45
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Looks like we're at the Kornilov Phase of Russia loving up a war. EDIT: I mean in terms of deranged Russian generals Prigozhin is much closer to that psycho who tried to start a new Mongol empire but I can't think of a way to finish this pedantic correction. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 09:47
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Well this has already gone way beyond anything I thought was possible. Guess I'll just be following along and shaking my head.
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Jun 24, 2023 09:59
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Good morning thread! I have a friend in Rostov, he went tankwatching today, says there are more Wagners than military at the moment Freudian slippers posted:Does Wagner have any anti-air weapons capable of downing jets? If not, they may face some interesting times when trying to move on Moscow proper. MANPADs for sure, certainly they would seek to capture proper AA vehicles when doing a tour around military bases
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Jun 24, 2023 10:01
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Freudian slippers posted:Does Wagner have any anti-air weapons capable of downing jets? If not, they may face some interesting times when trying to move on Moscow proper. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672522249176338436
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Jun 24, 2023 10:02
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I'm really curious how this is going to impact russian logistics into Ukraine. Prigozhin said he wants to let the military continue to run the war, but this has to have some pretty debilitating effects.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:05
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